Turkey, Kurds, and the Re-Orientation of Politics

[cyppok]

Turkey, Kurds, and the Re-Orientation of Politics

Turkey changing its' image and stance internally and externally with a more embracing pro-islamic image of their identity from a secular constitutionalists ideal imbued by the founders of the republic.

My feeling is to some degree there is a lot of posturing to project influence within Mid-East both economically and politically by participating in the game.

Turkey's Military Strikes Could Herald Closure For Kurdish Opening | EurasiaNet.org
There is some continuation of destabilization in border areas with Iraqi Kurdistan but that is not new.

1) [Syria]
2) [Kurds]

1)Syria seems like it is beginning to sway between Turkish and Iranian influence leveraging both to maximize benefits. This sort of occurred with Ukraine playing off Russia and Eu until eventually it more or less lost both partners.

The problem with Syria is at this point its' one of the only few countries where foreign (US/EU) influence has not meddled beyond political negotiation.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38401&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=a78d45b9bc89b0445420bdeadcff950b
What is interesting in the article is not the Proselytizing of religions that is nothing new, the economics underpinning the current state of affairs with the drought rippled effect continuing is more interesting.

The reality is Syria in my opinion created its' own frozen conflict (with Israel and to a degree with Lebanon). It also to a degree created a frozen political conflict by not re-instituting citizenship that Kurds lost decades ago when it was stripped from them. Repercussions are such that the choice to negotiate(or do nothing) is slowly dissapearing.

Politically they could recognize borders with Israel and grant citizenship to Kurds to placate the West to a certain degree, but that kills Arab influence of detonates the authority of the government which is shaky already. Ergo the conservatives and religious whom are not yet out on the streets protesting the gov't might be compelled to do so.

Thus far their attempt to split Western Influence over Israel and Lebanon did not pan out, they(the gov't) probably thought the Lebanese pullout would split EU/US pressure and it did for a little while the problem is there was no resolution since meddling in Lebanon continued and posturing for negotiation with Israel and no actual negotiation occurred.

The pressure from Turkey over gov't crackdowns in Syria is sort of a dance in relation to, I pretend to listen to your advice and once the operation finishes you can claim that the pressure brought political resolution. We both can pat ourselves on the back for a job well done. The reality is Turkey controls a lot of water that goes through Iraq/Syria through dams present and planned and in some degree it could economically force the issue if it really wanted by simply using trade means.
(this is more or less what I got from the article below which goes into it far more eloquently than I do)
Turkey risks Syria's friendship in last-ditch effort to end violence - CSMonitor.com

This is more recent and more or less talks about things that give Syria stabilization.
Why many Syrians still support Assad - CSMonitor.com
I don't think this helps if every sixth person is in Agriculture and it is suffering due to drought, and the youthful unemployment and small business which provide some added services add up my guess is the majority are not happy.

Future thought: My guess is if foreign pressure increases on Syria the regime will actually negotiate and fix things internally/externally. This will weaken it longer term since it will not be able to have "external threat" mentality once Israel is peaced. They could become cosmopolitan and grant equal rights to all (Kurds etc) maintaining something similar to Soviet style despotism seen in quiet a few former republics. This may stabilize it longer term since there is no critical mass in any one minority which would push a region to secede. If the gov't overplays its' hand and the foreign pressure is actually strong enough the regime could destabilize and you get something similar to a land grab "Iraq 2" scenario except it would be to a degree far worse and more destabilizing longer term.

2) Kurdish question rests on a triangle more or less Turkey/Iran/Syria once one soften their stance and uses the emerging state for their gains there will be traction. It is more a question of when and not if. I used to think Syria would recognize its' own Kurds and more or less deal with and not protest their goals by maximizing its' benefit, ergo supplying arms while trying to get contracts etc... The odd thing is that thus far Turkey has been the one benefiting the most on the trade front. Iran seems quiet but in the future it could trade off Shiite Iraq against Kurdish Kurdistan the problem is nobody wants to pay with "something" because everyone has something to loose.

Syria in this regard had the least to loose and most to gain by getting a neighbor as a buffer vis a vis Turkey and Iran to a certain degree.

catalysts:
1) economy
I am basically looking at this from the point of view of Russia in the 90s when it collapsed. However my knowledge is limited in regard to the housing bubble in Turkey, agricultural problems(if any), bankruptcy effects if someone defaults on their loans, and the state of trade/gdp growth buffeted by these effects and on their own.
2) military
If the military gets softened up by a lull in activity and far more likely by a soft purge of hard core nationalists political opponents of the current party in the future once catalyst 1) falls into place there might be a reduction in forces scenario for the military presence and replacement of able commanders by cronies which my guess is happening now as we speak to a degree.
Top AKP official calls for drastic military overhaul - Hurriyet Daily News

Kurds establishing a state prior to funding increased insurgency within Turkey seems not necessary. What is necessary is money and unity. Unity seems to be lacking lately but there does seem a gradual amalgamation of forces into larger more unified entities (politic & military wise). I get a feeling that there is an opinion of waiting for the most opportune moment to have an effort ergo catalysts 1&2 come together and there is some success by the PKK of continued mayhem the other two political entities in Northern Iraq will align themselves to capitalize on expanding influence. This will most likely occur fairly quickly the question is will they be successful and how Turkey deal with it prior to occurrence.
Iran kills Kurdish rebel deputy military chief - Yahoo! News
sort of curious article in regard to happenings.

On Tuesday, the president of Iraq's Kurdistan region, Massud Barzani, called on Kurdish fighters seek their goals through diplomacy.

"We are in a difficult situation because there are two countries (Iran and Turkey) telling us to control our borders so there will be no problems," Barzani said in Arbil.

But "we are afraid to send forces to the borders for fear of a Kurdish-Kurdish war," he said.

found this a bit odd but hey probably a grain of truth in there.

I actually think Turkey is going to experience a cluster**** post economic collapse and army reorganization. (similar to what happened in Russia in the Caucasus during the 90s) [the differences of course are the scope and size]

[Hitman817]

I actually think Turkey is going to experience a cluster**** post economic collapse and army reorganization. (similar to what happened in Russia in the Caucasus during the 90s) [the differences of course are the scope and size]

Your assumption is based on what? In which ways is Turkeys situation today similiar to Russia's in the 90s?

[cyppok]

You got the first tranche in 2008-09 if I am not mistaken from the Eu/Imf/Us
Turkey agrees to $19 bln IMF credit offer

Turkey agrees to $19 bln IMF credit offer
Mon, Nov 24, 2008
Reuters

ISTANBUL - Turkey has accepted the International Monetary Fund's final offer of US$19 billion in credit after Ankara requested an initial US$30 billion, daily newspaper Zaman reported on Monday.

Under normal conditions the amount of money that the IMF would offer a country is US$15 billion but the body raised its offer to US$19 billion during negotiations with Ankara.

1998 Russian financial crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A $22.6 billion International Monetary Fund and World Bank financial package was approved on 13 July to support reforms and stabilize the Russian market

these were later converted into Euro denominated bonds(in Russian case), and after the devaluation the payments were defaulted upon since it was impossible to pay.

The situation is very similar to Turkey because it got foreign denominated bonds to bail itself out and right now the devaluation is happening, once the forex imbalance either eats through the foreign currency reserves or the situation becomes untenable a similar default should ensue.

Analysts predict recession due to ‘demand collapse’ - Hurriyet Daily News

“Turkey’s current account deficit has now reached levels that have never been seen before. We are in unchartered waters,” the economists said. “Over the first half of this year, the deficit stood at around 12 percent of GDP.

EU’s lending arm to provide more loans for Turkey - Hurriyet Daily News
EIB and most likely other Euro banks have been providing foreign currency loans to Turkey since 2008 if you notice most of this in my view is to service the debt and the imbalance in order to keep the exchange rate steady. If it unravels (as it is doing now). You get Russia in the 90s...

P.S.
The fix to this would have been to not take the loan in the 2008 letting devaluation happen then not now, and legitimizing citizenship for Kurds while strictly enforcing peace. What happens instead is partial legitimization(politics wise but not individual rights wise ergo freedom of movement) and the army getting gutted (command and control wise) at a time when a lull in activity will most likely end with a quasi-independent state in Iraq that will most likely support seperatism. (this part is somewhat not similar to Russia because the quasi independence of Caucasian republics was not tollerated for very long)...
The village guard system is beyond stupid in my view, and most likely will backfire when all of this comes to fruition.

P.S.S.
Did I make a valid argument?

[TTL]

P.S.S.
Did I make a valid argument?

Cyppok whole Europe is in economic difficulty, it inevitably also effects turkish economy. I don't really think these loans spell certain doom. You should also take into account Turkey was never a rich country, we are rather used to economic crisis and less susceptible to resulting social upheveal compared to EU populations.

On the Kurdish issue, you ignore that KRG is massively disadvantaged via vis Turkey in every field. They are surrounded by hostile neighbours, outnumbered 5 to 1, don't really have a military (their army is more of a militia), don't have any industrial base or economic clout (other than oil income) and maybe most importantly don't have an established political tradition (two main tribes headed by Barzani and Talabani rule KRG with an iron fist and they don't get along very well).

Kurds of Northern Iraq are now living better than ever, Erbil has changed amazingly in 5 years. Will they risk all those gains to help PKK, whom they were actually fighting 15 years ago?

On the PKK, they are fighting with us for the last 30 years during which Turkey was much poorer than she is now, with the soviets on our flank. We won't be able to finish them without winning the hearts of our Kurdish population and they won't be able to defeat a much more powerful foe who has ethnically secure backstaging areas, a huge manpower pool and politically doctrinated population.

[cyppok]

Cyppok whole Europe is in economic difficulty, it inevitably also effects turkish economy. I don't really think these loans spell certain doom. You should also take into account Turkey was never a rich country, we are rather used to economic crisis and less susceptible to resulting social upheveal compared to EU populations.

On the Kurdish issue, you ignore that KRG is massively disadvantaged via vis Turkey in every field. They are surrounded by hostile neighbours, outnumbered 5 to 1, don't really have a military (their army is more of a militia), don't have any industrial base or economic clout (other than oil income) and maybe most importantly don't have an established political tradition (two main tribes headed by Barzani and Talabani rule KRG with an iron fist and they don't get along very well).

Kurds of Northern Iraq are now living better than ever, Erbil has changed amazingly in 5 years. Will they risk all those gains to help PKK, whom they were actually fighting 15 years ago?

On the PKK, they are fighting with us for the last 30 years during which Turkey was much poorer than she is now, with the soviets on our flank. We won't be able to finish them without winning the hearts of our Kurdish population and they won't be able to defeat a much more powerful foe who has ethnically secure backstaging areas, a huge manpower pool and politically doctrinated population.

All points I do see as clearly as you.
Chechnya had a much larger disadvantage(compared to Kurds) yet still tried to get independence by force. Trying and succeeding are two different things (notice I didn't say the Kurds would succeed, they might though)

Notice my catalysts are economic chaos and soft purging of the army and modicum of success by the PKK. You are forgetting that the Northern Iraq tribes realize that long term they have to do something before either Iraq consolidates and they are 1) unable to leave for self-determination 2) Iran and Iraq venture into and shell northern Iraq anyways so the risk of incursion is there they face it either way. Its one of those damned if you do and damned if you don't things. Once the U.S. leaves the region there will be no voice of moderation and they will be left at the position they are able to secure.

The reality of mountain warfare is that sometimes all you need to do is capture a few mount passes to make it very hard to recapture territory without extreme losses. (Air superiority helps but doesn't fix the problem)

P.S. been reading the farmer stories in Hurryet and people going to jail for not paying loans to banks. Seems a bit drastic.

[TTL]

Chechnya is not independent, they are a federal subject of Russia. Actually after lots of fighting Russians managed to divide and use different chechen warlords against each other. I agree with you that COIN operations against a guerilla force in mountainous terrain is hard and but this doesn't change the general outcome ıf political will is present.

Why do you presume KRG would prefer independence? A federal Iraq might be a much better choice for them. With cooperation of Turkey and guarantee of U.S. they can still be their own masters on domestic issues and act together with the rest of Iraq on foreign affairs.

The type of political-economic breakdown you forsee doesn't seem likely to me. Turkish population is fiercely nationalist and doctrinated, they can tolerate large losses and pains if they believe unity of turkey is under threat. The news you read are probably true, life is hard here. We have the latest in consumer goods availabe in shops of Istanbul and most lavish hotels in Antalya yet only a very small percentage of people earn enough to enjoy them. I personally also find it interesting that people are so poor yet still so proud and obedient, it stems from our culture I think.

[Doktor]

The news you read are probably true, life is hard here. We have the latest in consumer goods availabe in shops of Istanbul and most lavish hotels in Antalya yet only a very small percentage of people earn enough to enjoy them. I personally also find it interesting that people are so poor yet still so proud and obedient, it stems from our culture I think.

There must be buyers and tourists, otherwise the stores would be closed and the hotel prices would go down.

[cyppok]

I said tried to get independent... btw...

KRG has an opening. They did it twice before during far worse circumstances.
Like I said right now Iraq is weak and more or less decentralized but things change.
The U.S. will most likely exit Iraq and that will be the time when KRG leaves on its own because Iraq would be at a point
with the least likely possibility of resistance to them leaving. Independence creates a direct player whom could be backed
by regional/international players think Russia/US.

I admit it is not likely. Turkey is very agrarian-stable(or at least seems to be), I still think it has a chance at happening. The islamicly oriented government will most likely
do a soft purge (it does look like it) and all you need is a couple of incompetent generals. Picking loyalty over ability will simply flow down from them
and you get a nice incompetent chain of command once subordinates are chosen in the image of themselves.

Being nationalist and indoctrinated is not as uncommon as you think. It does not prevent incompetence.

I was going to give Armenia vs Azerbaidjan as an example of mountain warfare and the latter had somewhat more Air power, this is closer to our modern setting.
Someone will support KRG they have critical mass the difference between Turkey and KRG is not as vast. Kurds being 10% of the population of Turkey (conservatively)
and another 5 million in Northern Iraqi Kurdistan for about 15 million ergo a 6 to 1 difference in population. Assuming they are initially successful taking some land in Turkey mountain passes
etc... you need at least 3 to 1 differential for mountain assaults. (not sure if its 5 to 1 for islands or something I don't remember that one).
So it is possible. (Turkey has about 400k troops Northern Iraq Kurdistan about 100k 4 to 1 differential, assuming Turkey has better training and equipment it might give it a small edge but not much since U.S. would most likely sell some of its equipment rather than evacuate it out)

[TTL]

Cyppok the main flaw I see in this scenario is that it envisions conventional warfare opposed to guerilla operations. You downplay the problems KRG faces way to much IMO. The assumption that Turkish command will prove extremely incompetent is not based on any proven fact. I don't approve AKPs policies personally but this doesn't necessarily makes the new commanders failures at their craft. You should also keep in mind that in the event of a conflict Turkey would have the control of the contested territory (eastern anatolia) and it would be KRG who has to advance on difficult terrain.

There is social unrest and terrorist activity in our south eastern cities but we are still in control of them. Not all of the 10 million kurdish civilians of Turkey support seperation and those who support won't turn to an instant army behind the front lines, especially since they have no weapons, no training and would be under martial law.

[cyppok]

Turkey would have the control of the contested territory (eastern anatolia) and it would be KRG who has to advance on difficult terrain.

There is social unrest and terrorist activity in our south eastern cities but we are still in control of them. Not all of the 10 million kurdish civilians of Turkey support seperation and those who support won't turn to an instant army behind the front lines, especially since they have no weapons, no training and would be under martial law.

They have weapons "village guards program" remember, and training as well. Same goes for control of territory. For additional weapons I am sure they could raid Turkish armories.

I am not saying it happens tomorrow just saying it could in the foreseeable future. What I am saying is the conflict will get worse once the economy winds down.
http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/kurds...-spring/p25287
Syria apparently granted back citizenship.

April when President Bashar al-Assad granted nationality to 300,000 in an effort to shore up his teetering government.

All they have to do is get the backing of both Iran and Syria at this point I see Syria as neutralized and Iran integrated half of their Kurds (the shia half) but the sunni half still wants to leave.
Perhaps with influence over Syria waning Iran will reconciliate with the Kurds up north.

[isim]

For additional weapons I am sure they could raid Turkish armories.

It has no actuality in real world. PKK or any other radical group can attack to military bases, but "raid to Turkish Armories" don't work in reality. At least i can't visualize your words as you mentioned. Even during economic collapse...

Turkish Army doesn't belong to a political party (like in Iran) or Army doesn't belong to goverment (like in US). They fallow the doctrine and they watch foreseeable future more carefully than civillians watch.

The system getting be feeled more day by day on entire Turkey. I understand you if you link Kurds with PKK but many Kurds have respected lifes with their families. They can't suddenly leave their lifes and families to became a militia.

[TTL]

They have weapons "village guards program" remember, and training as well. Same goes for control of territory. For additional weapons I am sure they could raid Turkish armories.

PKK or any other radical group can attack to military bases, but "raid to Turkish Armories" don't work in reality

Village guards are local men who now the territory so they mainly serve as scouts in turkish army. They are not organized as independent units and their numbers are limited. Additionaly village guard system is currently being phased out.

PKK does not raid military bases. They raid lone outposts in the middle of nowhere using hit and run tactics. They infiltrate the border in small groups, regroup in mountainous terrain, attack at night and disperse before dawn.

[cyppok]

It has no actuality in real world. PKK or any other radical group can attack to military bases, but "raid to Turkish Armories" don't work in reality. At least i can't visualize your words as you mentioned. Even during economic collapse...

Turkish Army doesn't belong to a political party (like in Iran) or Army doesn't belong to goverment (like in US). They fallow the doctrine and they watch foreseeable future more carefully than civillians watch.

The system getting be feeled more day by day on entire Turkey. I understand you if you link Kurds with PKK but many Kurds have respected lifes with their families. They can't suddenly leave their lifes and families to became a militia.

You do not need every Kurd or even a majority to go militant... Just an active and determined minority. That's how revolutions go an active and determined minority goes against the much larger "system" where the majority are really doing their own things.


TTL tactics change when there is a will and a way to change them in addition to resources. If they saw an opening the amount of people and how they attack would shift to maximize perceived damage and benefit. Things are done with it is available (presently).

Village guards from what I have read are based on clan structures ergo a clan is armed where they keep other clans inline in a given region. There is intense corruption and power abuse due to them having a right of being "armed" and imposing their will on others within a region. Now please tell me what happens if you try to take that power away?
They are organized in a sense through being a clan structure.

In Russia in the beginning Chechnya raided and robbed incoming trains and other regions around. There was intense corruption and most people were armed (not by sanction as in case of Turkey). What happened was simply it spiraled out of control. Simply because there was a sense of untouchability and the economic situation provided an opening since everything was depressed and in decay. In some sense there was outrage when the federal center tried to re-establish control since the people felt "when did this happen" and "noo I like the way things are now" and looking at other independence movements around sort of "me too" projection. I am simplifying it a lot here.

[cyppok]

Iraqi Leaders Urge U.S. Against Extending Troop Presence - Yochi J. Dreazen - International - The Atlantic

With U.S. troops streaming out of Iraq by the thousands, the unpopular American-led war here is finally drawing to a close. Under the terms of a 2008 security agreement between Baghdad and Washington, all of the roughly 45,000 troops who remain in Iraq are slated to withdraw by the end of the year.

But the aide said Maliki was unlikely to make a formal request unless he has clearer political support from the country's other major parties. So far, only the main Kurdish bloc has been willing to publicly call for extending the American troop presence, with Massoud Barzani, the head of the quasi-independent Kurdish Regional Government, warning a few days ago that a full withdrawal risked triggering a new "civil war" here.

Like I said earlier the pull-out will force the issue, since the dominant political power ergo the Shiites will try to force the issue of centralizing the state and most importantly incomes from oil and other things. Ergo all that economic growth northern Kurdistan saw would get suppressed somewhat due to far higher bureaucratic barriers tariff wise that spring up when governments start wielding their bureaucratic muscle. My guess is the Kurds know and realize that getting out after the United States is the best bet for independence and most likely to succeed since Iraq wouldn't have a centralized army that would be able to go into the North and bring it back.
(Once Kurdistan is independent two things happen they will need backers and most likely will reconciliate with Iran. This will work since Iran will tolerate them same way it tolerates Azerbaidjan and Kurds will most likely formally give up any land claims to the former "republic of Mahabad" area.

The civil war might split the state three ways since the Sunnis would be likely to view the situation in the same light.

Syria is either going to follow that lead IF Iran reconciliates or most likely do so ahead simply due to political situation demanding stability outside the borders. Political situation with the army running from city to city to keep unrest down does make the little northern corner likely to leave IF there is a military intervention and direct land connection to the Kurdish state. Chance of this is somewhat low because Turkey could intervene and Syria would most likely acquiesce for it to do so.

Kurds would likely recieve support from U.S., Russia, Israel, and perhaps a few other areas.

The absolute worst case scenario for Kurds is the following. Iraq splits and Syria destabilizes. Turkey moves troops into Northern Syria for stability and the Sunni part of Iraq goes independent and holds a referendum to join Syria. Turkey creates a client government in the enlarged Syria more or less. Iran attempts to do the same with Southern Iraq and joins Turkey in crushing/dividing the North Iraqi Kurdistan. (Iran doing this is very unlikely it would probably support Kurds for their recognition of Irans province)

http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...-assad/245454/

BEIRUT, Lebanon -- Hezbollah supporters have been watching the turbulence next door in Syria with apprehension. Rhetorically, the Lebanese Party of God has backed its patron in Damascus, although its embrace has grown tepid of late. But Hezbollah was worried enough to shift its weapons caches from Syria into Lebanon, reportedly, and its emissaries have been working behind the scenes to mend relations with Syria's opposition. At the core of their worry is a sectarian concern: Syria without Bashar al-Assad might be willing to jettison Hezbollah -- after all, Syria is a majority Sunni nation, and Hezbollah is a Shia standard-bearer.

http://arabnews.com/middleeast/article505806.ece

By AHMED RASHEED | REUTERS

Published: Sep 23, 2011 22:55 Updated: Sep 23, 2011 22:55

BAGHDAD: Iraq’s leadership has changed the draft of a long awaited oil and gas law in a way that would give central government more control over the country’s vast crude reserves and provoke a clash with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region.

[cyppok]

Turkish minister demands Russia slash gas prices - Hurriyet Daily News

I read this and almost started laughing. Now after reading it what do you not see. Economic impact for one but that is besides the point. I am curious about the BTE the capacity is comparable to Blue Stream but I wonder what the prices are for each.
Turkey - Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Gas prices dispute may drive Turkey to cancel contract with Russia
Zaman has a better article on the issue.
Azerbaijan Criticizes Turkey Over Gas Prices, To Seek New Routes
The problem is I cant find gas prices for either.
Turkey, Azerbaijan Gas Agreement Reached, but Talks to Continue | EurasiaNet.org
There we go.

Few details about the Istanbul agreements have been disclosed. Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz stated that the new price Turkey must pay for gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz project is higher than the previous price of $120 per 1,000 cubic meters (tcm). Still, Yildiz declined to provide an exact figure, Turkish media reported. A SOCAR source told EurasiaNet.org earlier that the planned price would be $250/tcm. CNN-Turk, however, has reported an agreed price of $300/tcm.

Assuming this was a year + ago, and the price is around $300 which would be comparable to what Ukraine was paying. Turkey consumes around 1.200TCF - production say around .050TCF = 1.150TCF=32.5643 Bil Cubic Meters(*$300) = is around ~9.8 billion dollars 9.769 lets say 10

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/12...-supplies.html
They mention that gas is not taxed that is interesting. I get a feeling there is an attempt by each party to try to squeeze some (profit)margin at the others' expense.

My guess is Russia wants the same 400 dollars it wants from Ukraine curious if Turkey joins the annual gas winter-fest. Doubt this bodes well for stability. The reasons are generally the same, industry (light manufacturing and heavy manufacturing) whom are the predominant consumers can't compete with Europe in terms of energy efficiency per output. Ergo without cheaper gas competition is untenable, and economic trade is curtailed since output prices need to rise to cover their cost, exports would should be affected. Does not bode well for stability.