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Turkey, Kurds, and the Re-Orientation of Politics

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  • #16
    CHP, AKP row over Israel policy worsens - Hurriyet Daily News
    Well at least there is discussion over external matters to a degree.
    Military orders mandatory evacuation of highlands in SE Turkey - Hurriyet Daily News
    The destabilization continues.
    The southeastern Hakkari province's gendarmerie command issued a mandatory evacuation order on Friday, telling villagers to evacuate the highlands on Mount Kato.
    Generally external enemies are sought and conflicts are flamed when the internal situation requires a "distraction" due to either political/economic or both factors.
    Gazprom hits back at minister’s gas threat - Hurriyet Daily News
    The company’s exports department said in a written statement that the talks on supplying natural gas to Turkey are continuing with the state-owned Turkish Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, or BOTAŞ, not the Energy Ministry.

    “Gazprom exports received no information about protracting the deal from its Turkish partner BOTAŞ, The contract was signed by BOTAŞ, not the ministry,” the statement read.

    The 25-year-old contract between the parties covers the transfer of 6 billion cubic meters of gas via the Western Pipeline, one of the two lines that carry Russian gas to Turkey. Gazprom’s other Turkish contract expires in 2022. In addition to the western onshore route, it supplies gas via the Blue Stream pipeline built across the Black Sea.

    Gazprom supplies about 18 billion cubic meters a year of gas to Turkey, its third-biggest export market after Ukraine and Germany.

    The raw natural gas prices have increased by nearly 39 percent in the last 29 months, Yıldız said. “This is why we will revise all the [natural gas] inputs. We will revise all the expiring contracts, indeed, and the Western Line is included.

    Turkey depends on Russia for 60 percent of its domestic gas use.
    Kurds - Border within Iraq this is an interesting video a few months old but still
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3NUwHgG7f4
    Notice they basically delimited internal borders and set units to enforce it post US-pullout, this reinforces my view that once that happens they declare independence.



    P.S. the reason I find the gas dispute funny because they always show clips of Ukraine turning the wheel on the pipe to close it one way and then Russia doing the same on their end, maybe Turkey will join the annual pipe closing celebration.
    Assuming they are talking about conscience mentioning "forehead". Thought deniz meant mountain ergo kara deniz black mountain, guess I am wrong.
    Last edited by cyppok; 30 Sep 11,, 18:18.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

    Comment


    • #17
      Cyppok, PKK greatly stepped its attacks up in the recent months. Do you think they are trying to destabilize the region preparing to US withdrawal? Can it be some kind of Israeli response to our bickering with them? or Are they just provoking Turkish Army to conduct a winter offensive? BDP announced they will return to the parliament, is it a response to them not taking their oaths (they boycotted the parliament because one of their MPs was not allowed to participate because of criminal charges) ?

      On the gazprom I think AKP can be acting preemptively to toss the blame on Russians for coming gas raises? They are good at PR games and now they can say we tried our best but Russian's are the ones responsible. Why would otherwise they antagonize the guys we purchase %60 of our gas, it is not like we have the best negotiation position?

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by TTL View Post
        Cyppok, PKK greatly stepped its attacks up in the recent months. Do you think they are trying to destabilize the region preparing to US withdrawal? Can it be some kind of Israeli response to our bickering with them? or Are they just provoking Turkish Army to conduct a winter offensive? BDP announced they will return to the parliament, is it a response to them not taking their oaths (they boycotted the parliament because one of their MPs was not allowed to participate because of criminal charges) ?

        On the gazprom I think AKP can be acting preemptively to toss the blame on Russians for coming gas raises? They are good at PR games and now they can say we tried our best but Russian's are the ones responsible. Why would otherwise they antagonize the guys we purchase %60 of our gas, it is not like we have the best negotiation position?
        Easier access to weapons, recruitment. The region is already destabilized they are trying to win. Turkish army is trying to 'fix' the problem by invading parts of Northern Iraq to clear them out, I get a feeling that one of those 'clears' will be the Turkish army itself. PKK ultimately gets absorbed by the mainstream is my guess, ergo they will break up and their support will split among various parties in Iraqi Kurdistan but the ideal of armed struggle for independence will be held by all.

        You have to be joking about Israeli involvement.

        Pkk is a product of political and cultural suppression of Kurds to a degree, they have better access to arms right now from Iraq then previously so the most radical people get a shot at enforcing their thoughts. Now they can go into Iraqi Kurdistan but it doesn't change the reality, they are the weakest and most radical party unless they fold into mainstream thinking. Imagine majority of Kurds in Northern Iraq don't actually feel they can take on Turkey, but once PKK fails and gets absorbed by the other parties they will have no choice but to do struggle against Turkey so as to have a chance at independence and protect themselves. After you get mainline involvement my guess is there will be one major clash (where Turkey looses ground) and you get a Chechnya styled destabilization.

        Trade is about necessity not negotiating position. If I had leverage over everything I buy either it would have to be cheap or I wouldn't buy it. Turkey buys gas for same reasons everyone buys gas, fertilizer, steel production, light manufacturing, heavy manufacturing, electricity, etc... The electric position is worse then Ukraine to a degree since Ukraine has about 50% of electricity coming from nuke plants. Hydro in Turkey is not a very large %, less than 20 I think. Basically would you rather have expensive gas or no gas at all is the question, and the answer is obvious. Some industry will have to go out of business due to not being economic.

        Tourism is what is saving Turkey btw, its the second most profitable business after oil & gas.

        AKP and CHP have their economic constituency, AKP's is suffering from higher priced gas they are trying to defend it. Gas rows happen because those businessmen complain and in essence say: "if gas goes up I go bankrupt and can't support the party anymore". The internal dynamics between them are interesting.

        AKP and CHP row over Israel has two main points
        1) common sense, before Turkey could have been a friend and trade partner to the region. By picking a side and 'harming' their own business interests and trade interests with Israel, AKP won nothing except media time in Arab press.
        2) business interests suffered tremendously, relative access to Israeli market and technological know how and FDI into Turkey will either stop or slow. Most of those whom suffered my guess is CHP constituency businessmen. If the decision to remove the relationship with Israel came due to party interests instead of national interests, you have a problem. Dividing internally into theirs and ours and acting accordingly sabotages economic development.


        Biggest mistake by Turkey was jailing those 150 or so Kurdish politicians after elections. The smartest thing they could have done was to give Kurds all rights and simply create a split within society so that some see it in their interests to remain within Turkey. Iran to a degree did this with the Kermanshah Kurds gave them everything except autonomy. Turkey is trying autonomy which is the wrong thing to do at this point.

        My guess is the first time or few times Turkish air assets (helicopter or jet) gets shot out of the sky in the south is when SHTF (sh*t hits the fan)...
        http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.p...key-2011-09-30
        US Ambassador in Ankara Francis Ricciardone said on Friday that the U.S will give three Super Cobra helicopters to Turkey, TGRT news channel reported. Turkey had been asking for Super Cobras to replace the helicopters it lost during its campaign against the PKK.
        If the amount of capable generals falls due to Ergenekon, you will have a major problem.
        http://www.acus.org/natosource/turke...e-its-generals
        http://www.acus.org/natosource/turke...ary-commanders
        48 generals/top officers in jail... +4 resigned...
        http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middl...gan-government
        +/- 160 officers/regional commanders

        http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11824
        video if you want to watch.

        P.S. Russian gas will be paid for the outcry for lower prices will most likely force some sort of subsidy, in what you get through the pipe as transit fees to be given to commercial consumers of gas to alleviate their costs, or gas amount gets cut and they fail outright.
        This does not get solved by getting Azerbaidjani or Turkmeni gas, long term all prices go to market rate. Turkey is going to pay for 300 for additional Azerbaidjani gas and most likely in a few years the same amount as they do for Russian gas. I am sure its' cheaper because its partly owned by Turkish interests so in essence your paying 300 and 25% or whatever goes to your own company but still doesn't change the price for commercial consumers just the foreign exchange outflow.
        Last edited by cyppok; 01 Oct 11,, 17:02.
        Originally from Sochi, Russia.

        Comment


        • #19
          Turkish Army to drill near Syria, 5 October 2011 Wednesday 9:18
          Something does not sound right. A lot of posturing going on especially taking this into account.

          Syria's Assad Threatens to Attack Israel, 5 October 2011 Wednesday 10:57
          Syria's Assad Threatens to Attack Israel
          Wednesday, 5 October 2011

          Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has threatened to attack Israel in the event of any Western military intervention in his country's domestic affairs, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported.

          "If a crazy measure is taken against Damascus, I will need not more than 6 hours to transfer hundreds of rockets and missiles to the Golan Heights to fire them at Tel Aviv," Assad said at a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Tuesday.

          The comments came after Russia and China had vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning Syria for its brutal crackdown on protesters.
          Assad also vowed to call on the Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah for support.

          "All these events will happen in three hours, but in the second three hours, Iran will attack U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf and American and European interests will be targeted simultaneously," he said.

          More than 2,700 people are estimated to have been killed across Syria since protests against the Assad regime began in March.

          Russia's UN envoy Vitaly Churkin said Moscow vetoed the resolution - drafted by France with Britain, Germany and Portugal - because it was based on "the philosophy of confrontation."

          Wednesday, 5 October 2011
          I find this hard to believe...

          http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38489&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=91468b9753a1151c79a66ba9e59e5264

          Third, the decision seeks to contain BOTAS’s losses, which has been selling gas to domestic consumers below its actual costs. On the same day that Yildiz announced the termination of the contract, BOTAS issued new prices for residential and industrial consumers, which implied price hikes of over 10 percent. While BOTAS cited the declining value of the Turkish Lira and increases in gas prices in international markets, this major price adjustment came as a shock to consumers. Instead of paying for unused gas, BOTAS had kept the prices constant in order not to curb consumption. The latest price hike, accompanied by efforts to reduce BOTAS’s market share and its take-or-pay obligations, seeks to improve the company’s financial standing, which has been running huge losses due to such practices in gas sales. But Turkish consumers – who became accustomed to this indirect subsidy – are unlikely to welcome the development.
          Like I said before subsidies will end and the commercial users dependent on them will fail most likely.

          Turkish Parliament votes on cross-border raids - Hurriyet Daily News
          The Turkish Parliament will vote Wednesday on whether to extend a mandate permitting military action against Kurdish militants in northern Iraq amid mounting opposition criticism of government policies on the Kurdish conflict.

          The vote will be preceded by a debate on the government motion, which is asking Parliament to authorize another year of cross-border operations against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, in northern Iraq. The current mandate expires Oct. 17.

          The motion is expected to be easily approved. The two largest opposition groups, the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, have signaled that they will support the move, leaving the Peace and Democracy Party, or BDP, Turkey’s main Kurdish political movement, as the sole opponent. However, at least two CHP deputies of Kurdish origin, deputy chairman Sezgin Tanrıkulu and Hüseyin Aygün, are expected to withhold support for the motion.

          The CHP and the MHP stepped up criticism Tuesday of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s suggestions that talks with the PKK could resume, accusing him of emboldening PKK violence.


          MHP chairman Devlet Bahçeli called for an immediate ground operation against PKK hideouts in northern Iraq “to erect the Turkish flag in the Kandil [Mountains] once and for all” in a speech at his party’s first parliamentary group meeting.
          I do not think this will work out. Considering the pressure on Syria it will come to terms with Kurds. If Syria actually comes to terms with Israel, Turkey will most be disappointed with its' southern orientation.

          Dollar sets new record, Turkish firms caught off guard - Hurriyet Daily News

          As hot money exits from emerging market currencies, the worrying rise of the dollar against the Turkish Lira continues. The greenback surpassed 1.90 lira for the first time on Tuesday. The surge has caught Turkish corporations off guard, as they carry a huge foreign currency debt load
          The rise of the greenback remained unfazed by the Central Bank selling $140 million at an average price of 1.8958 liras. The Central Bank, which received a high demand of $375 million, has sold more than $3 billion since the start of August but has failed to limit the depreciation of the Turkish currency.
          Those property bubbles are bursting globally, Turkey is no different all those unrealistic prices and foreign investors whom will continue to buy property at astronomic rates are now imaginary...

          According to data for the first quarter of the year, the net foreign currency deficit of Turkish companies is near $111.8 billion, rising 35.4 percent compared to last year. The short-term net foreign currency deficit of corporations stood at $9.16 billion, increasing by a massive 188 percent.

          The deficit was under $20.5 billion in 2003 and has increased every year since. The biggest annual jump, however, has been seen in the past few years.

          Massive depreciation

          Though a relief for exporters, the appreciation of the dollar and the euro is a direct threat to corporations that are indebted in foreign currencies. Since the start of 2011, the lira has depreciated by 23.6 percent against the dollar – the greenback was trading at 1.536 in January. The Turkish currency shed 21.6 percent of its value against the euro in the same period.

          As of March, foreign currency liabilities of Turkish corporations have increased to $194.7 billion, rising 23.1 percent compared to last year.

          The data show that since 2003, the foreign currency risk of corporations has surged by $91.3 billion, or 446 percent.
          This is the big deal not the deficit in trade but this... The debt that makes it possible, growing and growing until it can be sustained no longer. Deficit is a symptom of debt not the cause, debt/liabilities are the cause.
          Last edited by cyppok; 05 Oct 11,, 10:50.
          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

          Comment


          • #20
            I do not think this will work out. Considering the pressure on Syria it will come to terms with Kurds. If Syria actually comes to terms with Israel, Turkey will most be disappointed with its' southern orientation.
            Assad being toppled is far more probable than syria making peace with Israelis IMHO. If sunni majority takes the reigns in Syria Turkey would have been playing the right horse.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by TTL View Post
              Assad being toppled is far more probable than syria making peace with Israelis IMHO. If sunni majority takes the reigns in Syria Turkey would have been playing the right horse.
              Maybe, but thus far it doesn't look like more than two or three cities are actively against him. The opposition is not armed and somewhat disorganized if you noticed the infighting recently. I do not think Syria is going to get bombed by international forces same as Lybia btw.
              Originally from Sochi, Russia.

              Comment


              • #22
                Turkish police officer killed, 3 others injured in PKK attack
                A police officer was killed and three others were injured in what believed to be an attack by the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the southern Turkish province of Hatay.
                The police officer was killed when the PKK attacked a police station.
                I m going to try to be brutally honest. Attacks are more or less either daily or at least every week. So the insurgency is sort of growing. This is similar to what is happening/happened in Dagestan/Chechnya, ergo attacks on police/military targets and some civilians as well outside and inside the region.
                _______________

                Thoughts.
                1) This could have been fixed doing one of two things but not a mix of both.
                a) Brutally and ruthlessly go in and annihilate everything until everyone that is left has no more fight in them.
                b) Diffuse the population somehow and/or divide and conquer.
                -the village guards program did not create what happened in Chechnya, ergo a third of the clans supported Russia during the second Chechen war fyi
                what the program accomplished is isolated islands of 'stability' that are in fact black market oriented and destabilizing, while the rest of the Kurds hate those people but unlike Chechnya the village guards do not have the ability to enforce their will upon the rest of the population to keep them inline, ergo no political power.

                Both things need to be followed up with actual integration of people to give them a stake in society (economic, political, cultural). If the Swiss can have loyal Italian cantons and loyal French cantons with those languages, Turkey can do so as well. Ottomans allowed other languages in their territories I think.

                Russia did both a and b, it was possible to not have a second Chechen war but they negotiated while having the enemy surrounded and eventually it came back...

                Diffusion of population basically means create incentives people to leave the region and/or go there. My feeling something similar to creating giant markets on the border like Chinese have with Kyrgyzstan would push people to trade with the Syria and something similar near Bulgaria/Greece. Basically shift people around ergo Kurds to heavily Turkish areas and Turks to Kurdish areas, I am sure this is what happened (at least the latter part). What Turkey did was concentrate Kurds in urban centers by moving them off their land, so there is a vast vast underclass and resentment ready to take up arms, deprived of "something" and everything.

                The problem right now I see is there is a sort of resolve to fight the fight-half-way similar to what happened during the Chechen war in Russia. Ergo there is military going in and a minor skirmish takes place then the small region is cordoned off a large military raid takes place while the other side moves someplace else. Then the military moves back out and goes back to its' base and militants go back to the region and it goes into a cat and mouse game more or less. There is no resolve to simply put up roadblocks and cordon off the area and enforce peace...

                Political radicalization is even more idiotic, letting people get elected and then when they try to solve their problems by pushing their socio-economic agenda, put them in jail. Helps show others that going through the political process doesn't work.
                Turkey begins trial of 151 pro-Kurdish politicians | World | Reuters
                Turkey on Monday began trying 151 politicians and activists, including 12 elected mayors, charged with links to Kurdish rebels in a case testing a European Union-inspired drive to broaden Kurdish rights.

                The defendants are accused of crimes including membership in an illegal armed group, spreading its propaganda, undermining Turkey's territorial integrity and violating laws on public demonstrations, according to a 7,500-page indictment.
                Gradual de-secularization of major institutions is not a good direction.

                Violence Escalates*in Turkey: Kurds Fear New Civil War May Be Brewing - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
                I think right after US leaves Turkey will invade northern Iraq en-masse. This is where the similarity ends with Russia.

                Politically going against Israel and giving Syria an ultimatum polarizes the Mid-East. Where as before where no sides were backed in the Israel/PLA disputes Turkey was more or less a friend to both, same with Syria, and even Iran. Now as sides are being picked and trying to influence the region for the actual amount of influence fell drastically. The whole thing could have been handled and approached differently.... I could have even seen Iran giving gas to Nabucco to fill and Turkey benefiting.

                Shwan Zulal: Publication of Kurdish PSCs and Baghdad use of Delaying Tactics

                __________________________________________________ __
                I think we have one of two things in the end...

                Either Kurds win after they go independent early next year.
                or
                They loose and Turkey de-facto annexes northern Iraq along with some parts of Northern Syria if Turkey goes in there as well to push Assad out.

                -Iran will be fairly angry if this happens along with push to expand influence in Shiite Iraq and do the same.
                -rump Syria goes radical and tries to expand into Sunni-Iraq

                P.S. yes I realize this is all hypothetical but take it all with a gran of salt, it could happen. :Dancing-Banana:
                Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Turkey warns 'other powers' it sees behind deadly PKK attack - CSMonitor.com
                  Turkish Armored Personnel Carriers, drive on a mountain road near the Turkish-Iraq border on Wednesday. Turkish soldiers, air force bombers and helicopter gunships launched an incursion into Iraq on Wednesday, hours after Kurdish rebels killed 24 soldiers and wounded 18 others in multiple attacks along the border.
                  "Whoever supports terror, feeds it and helps it; whoever tolerates it and ignores its inhumane attacks, tries to cover the bloody face of terror," said Erdogan. "I want to let them all know that Turkey is breathing down their necks all the time."

                  The Turkish leader reached further, too, blaming unnamed local actors for trying to end Turkey's rise as a regional power. The latest attack, Erdogan said, showed that "terror is a tool in the hands of certain powers. The PKK are subcontractors used by other forces and other powers, trying to provoke Turkish society."

                  Some 600 Turkish mountain commandos were reportedly deployed five miles into northern Iraq looking for targets, backed up by helicopter gunships, according to Turkish media. By mid-afternoon local time, reports emerged that 15 PKK militants had been killed.
                  Warnings to Iraq

                  Turkey last week warned Iraqi authorities to deal with attacks staged from its soil, saying its “patience” was running out. Despite the potential regional reverberations, the timing of the attacks fits a previous pattern, experts say.

                  The PKK "tends to escalate" attacks every fall, when they have "maximum maneuverability" before the onset of winter, says Fadi Hakura, a Turkey specialist at the Chatham House think tank in London.
                  This year the U.S. pullout ends during those winter months an additional reason for independence(North Iraq Kurdistan) to commence at that time.

                  The current PKK strikes are taking place at a time of rising political frustration among Turkey's ethnic Kurds – a political "failure of expectations" among Kurds, met by a "hardening" government stance, says Mr. Hakura – but Turkey's military action in northern Iraq is likely to be limited.
                  Turkey launches incursion into Iraq
                  The U.S. currently shares drone surveillance data with Turkey to aid its fight against Kurdish rebels and it is engaged in talks with Turkey for possible deployment of Predator drones on Turkish soil after the U.S. leaves Iraq, according to the Turkish government.
                  Since Turkey is turning eastwards and the problems with Israel this (sharing of data) may change. I am wondering if it is limited to a certain degree, ergo if there was a full scale invasion into the north of Iraq instead of limited 600 troops the U.S. might have not shared info (this is a guess on my part)...
                  Cypris issue with shelf survey and military threats to a degree turned Europe off as well.
                  Overall the geo-political influence fell as Turkey is attempting to have a projection of power through some sort of intimidation, its' somewhat of a botched 'soft power' attempt. Thus far influence attempts on Cypris, Israel, Syria, were failures. The only way to be liked by everyone is to be neutral and trade with all and not get involved in internal matters of other states, otherwise they might do the same with you (unless you have significant leverage upon them)...
                  Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Iran gov’t condemns Syria - Hurriyet Daily News
                    Iran gov’t condemns Syria

                    Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned the “killings and massacres” in key ally Syria, in a CNN interview, as Syrian security forces yesterday flooded into villages and shot two people dead in a central region of the country while President Bashar al-Assad replaced the governors of two provinces that have been centers of the uprising against his regime.

                    “We condemn killings and massacres in Syria, whether it is security forces being killed or people and the opposition,” Ahmadinejad said. “We have a clear formula for Syria and that it is for all sides to sit together and reach an understanding. These killings cannot solve any problems and in the long term will lead to a deadlock,” he added, Agence France-Presse reported.
                    Syria: forces continue to shoot protesters dead despite calls from West for Assad to quit - Telegraph
                    Either Syria gets carved up or changes its' geopolitical relations. Supporting Kurds might make sense from a risk/reward payoff if foreign intervention from neighbors accelerates.

                    Iraq's Kurdistan Blocs Coalition KBC reject proposal of Kurdish state
                    I see this as posturing but time will tell.
                    October 24, 2011

                    BAGHDAD, — The Kurdistan Blocs Coalition (KBC) rejected the proposal of Izzat Shabandar, a leader in the ruling State of Law Coalition (SLC), who called on the Kurds to found their own state.

                    KBC spokesman Muayyid Tayyeb said that these statements aim to put pressure on the Kurds and affect the bilateral relationship between the Kurdistan region and Baghdad.

                    "The Kurdish leaders are not thinking now of this issue and we chose to stay within a federal unified Iraq and we are very keen to implement the Constitution and respect the unity and sovereignty of Iraq," Tayyeb said.
                    The whole event seeks leverage in my view to get resolution on disputed territory.
                    On Saturday, Shabandar had suggested to found an independent Kurdish state and to put disputed areas under national control since "no satisfactory decision for both parties can be reached as far as the disputed areas are concerned."
                    The fate of the disputed areas -- cities and areas along the border between the Republic of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region -- is one of the main reasons for an ongoing argument between Erbil and Baghdad.

                    The debate about independence coincided with the arrival of a new delegation of Kurdish politicians in Baghdad for talks about outstanding issues between the federal government and the Kurdistan Region government (KRG) today.

                    Besides that, the tensions between Baghdad and Erbil are sparked by a list of demands that the Kurds believe they are entitled to after they lent their support to Prime Minister al-Maliki after the last election: the integration of the Kurdish defense forces (the Peshmarga) into the Iraqi army, paid for by the Iraqi government; drafting a new hydrocarbon law; and the implementation of Article 140 into the Iraqi constitution -- which authorizes payments to Kurds who were forced from their homes under Saddam Hussein, a comprehensive census of ethnic groups and a referendum to decide if disputed areas should fall under the control of Kurdistan Regional Government.
                    Settling territorial dispute prior to independence is what I see here, they want those regions formally added by Iraq to have no post-facto claims, not sure they will succeed but the overall sense is this is not the first nor the last formal independence attempt...
                    The Kurdish strategy for Iraq: divide and exploit | Ranj Alaaldin | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
                    Bottom part of article below.
                    But does Kurdistan need Iraq? Iraq has control over pipelines that allow for oil to be exported more efficiently. Exporting oil via tanker trucks, although inefficient, is still feasible, but at some point a pipeline will be needed if Kurdistan is to become a viable exporter able to manage its huge reserves. So far, though, Kurdish energy ambitions have not been impeded by Baghdad's control of the pipelines and its messy politics.

                    Baghdad also provides additional revenues, which allow for better basic services, infrastructure, education and a better equipped military – for the Kurds. In addition to their own resources and revenues – which Baghdad is unable to audit and benefit from – the KRG gets 17% of the annual Iraqi budget, worth, at the very least, almost $10bn a year.

                    Ultimately, it is about keeping any enemies in the making close; that is, have a foot in Baghdad, be aware of behind-the-scenes developments and have constant access to the political elite, providing an opportunity to promote regression.

                    Of course, the Kurds do not have to be part of Iraq and could declare independence tomorrow. There is little that Turkey and other neighbours like Iran could do, given their billions of dollars worth of trade with Kurdistan, domestic problems and the general volatility in the region, as well as the impossibility of invading and occupying Kurdistan's cities.

                    However, the Kurds will not declare independence because they have a good thing going for them. It makes little sense to sacrifice this when any unilateral declaration of independence would put them "in the wrong", perhaps land-lock them and justify counter-responses from Baghdad and regional neighbours.

                    Instead, they want to declare independence as part of a sustainable and regional framework, and so long as this framework gives them Kirkuk. In the meantime, the Kurds will continue to operate in the interests of the Kurds and Kurdistan, and that means exploiting Baghdad for all it has got – a price Iraq and Iraqis have to pay to keep the country intact.
                    Oil Pipelines in Iraq on link below towards bottom.
                    Iraq Pipeline Watch
                    There are some pipelines being built from Iraq to Syria but not sure where they are yet or how far along.

                    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/10/18/Iraq-Turks-raids-on-Kurds-fuel-war-fears/UPI-46401318958300/

                    Syria's intelligence services, a key pillar of the embattled regime of President Bashar al-Assad, have threatened to resume arms deliveries to the PKK unless Erdogan minds his own business.
                    food for thought
                    7 intl. investors eyeing Iran-Iraq-Syria-Europe pipeline - Tehran Times
                    Kirkuk
                    not sure where this falls.
                    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Autonomies into oblivion

                      Asia Times Online :: Maliki frets over 'Iraqi Spring'

                      Maliki frets over 'Iraqi Spring'
                      By Sami Moubayed

                      DAMASCUS - Moves by an Iraqi Sunni-dominated province to demand autonomy from Baghdad and rumors of coup d'etat led by Ba'athists have Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki very worried about the prospects of a rebellion.

                      Such an "Iraqi Spring" would enjoy the full financial and political backing of Saudi Arabia's new Crown Prince, Nayef Ibn Abdul-Aziz. In recent years Nayef has seen his country's influence in Iraq drop dramatically as Tehran's star rose.
                      To skip a bit further down.

                      Reacting to the arrests and academic purge, the provincial council in Salahuddin on October 27 symbolically declared the province an autonomous region, with local politicians claiming Maliki's government was dominated by religiously-driven, Iran-backed officials.
                      The premier's anger does not change the fact that under Article 119 of the constitution, "One or more governorates shall have the right to organize into a region based on a request to be voted on in a referendum." Meaning, the residents of Salahuddin could achieve autonomy, like Iraqi Kurdistan, if this was achieved through popular referendum.

                      Iraqi Sunnis will try to do it the official way, but if Maliki prevents them they will take to the streets, just like angry Arabs have done in Cairo, Sana'a and Damascus. Maliki realizes that if the Sunnis take the matter to the polls, they would indeed demand autonomy for Salahuddin and other provinces would quickly follow suit.

                      The Iraqi prime minister has desperately tried explaining his position by saying that this "is not the moment for federalism", claiming that if passed, or even raised officially, this would be a "national disaster".

                      Had it been up to Iran, it would have declared autonomy for Shi'ites in southern Iraq years ago. The idea originally surfaced in 2005, put forth by Iran's prime ally in Iraqi politics, the late Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, president of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC).

                      Autonomy for Shi'ites in southern Iraq, topped with Kurds in northern Iraq, would have left Sunnis in central Iraq helpless, weak and with no oil. The project never saw the light of day due to a strong veto from Sunnis. Now, it is the Sunnis who are demanding autonomy for the first time since the country was created in the early 1920s.

                      As well as being fed up with Iranian dictates, the Sunni minority is furious with being treated as an underclass since the toppling of Saddam in 2003.
                      Iraq Considers Devolving Power Instead Of Provincial Autonomy
                      November 10, 2011
                      BAGHDAD -- Several Iraqi politicians have suggested countering demands for provincial autonomy on the model of the Kurdish region in northern Iraq by granting more powers to the provinces, RFE/RL's Radio Free Iraq (RFI) reports.
                      In late October, the Salahuddin provincial government -- which is located in former leader Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit -- asked Baghdad to endorse its plans to declare the province an autonomous region.

                      In the spring, four predominanlty Shi'ite provinces in the south -- Basra, Maysan, Thi Qar, and Muthanna -- appealed to the central government in Baghdad to make them autonomous regions. Politicians from the predominantly Sunni province of Anbar have also called for their province to be given autonomy.
                      Everyone wants autonomy. A Confederation would have been proper I think at the very beginning but right now this is all just prelude to complete seperation post pull-out in my view.

                      The constant attacks on pilgrims from Iran to Iraq will most likely be used as an excuse to seek a 'protectorate' of shiite Iraq once U.S. withdraws. My guess it will all backfire and become a complete cluster#*#*.... This is all one snowball rolling downhill for the past three years or so. I think more countries in mideast would be better for all. Yemen spliting into two, Iraq into three, and perhaps Syria.

                      I think contention vis a vis each other and ethnic division among nation states would most likely be more peaceful long term than things as they are now. Perhaps I am wrong but time will tell.

                      Turkey is a bit of an oddity. It was so secularaly stable and to some degree still is, but the resurging religious path and the necessity to prove something seem odd to me. I guess the new party in power needs to establish a solid slogan and a path that creates some sort of "destiny" but the reality is the most important thing is economic development, good treatment of the people under just laws, and peace. The whole "us and them" play and the military incursion is simply a fasade for a power grab to eliminate political oponents for the most part.

                      Sure there are PKK but the radicalization of eliminating the political outlet of their constituency will only make it more likely to increase people seeking radical outlets. Its very simply really if you have a person that could voice their grievances and beliefs (particularly those you do not share) once their ability to voice them is eliminated (those politicians Turkey rounded up and jailed and continues to put away) the population dependent on that representation gets more radicalized (DUH!)...

                      Anyways the catalyst is approaching (the U.S. pullout from Iraq)...
                      We shall see how this plays out

                      http://www.indynewsisrael.com/kurds-...ric-conference
                      Kurds Hoping to Unite at Historic Conference

                      by Azade Akrayi

                      Parties representing ethnic Kurds living under different rulers are hoping to unite in efforts to form a consensus of their peoples’ demands as the Middle East experiences drastic changes brought on by the “Arab Spring” Revolution.
                      Does seem like one of those things that happens before someone declares independence... doesn't it?
                      Last edited by cyppok; 15 Nov 11,, 07:55.
                      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Sure there are PKK but the radicalization of eliminating the political outlet of their constituency will only make it more likely to increase people seeking radical outlets. Its very simply really if you have a person that could voice their grievances and beliefs (particularly those you do not share) once their ability to voice them is eliminated (those politicians Turkey rounded up and jailed and continues to put away) the population dependent on that representation gets more radicalized (DUH!)...
                        But when do one draws the line? Those politicians refuse to condemn PKK and revere Abdullah Ocalan. How can a state allow a political party to support armed rebellion? Kurds have the right to vote as every turkish citizen but they also have the duty to obey the rule of law.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          There is no line TTL. The politicians will voice the concerns of their people (closing their mouths) doesn't make them stop thinking it. Them voicing it diffuses the situation, in the political sphere they had no majority to implement anything they wanted in the non-political sphere they do (have a chance at least). Driving a rebellion underground doesn't make it go away.

                          If the law says I cannot speak my own language at official functions kinda abridges my rights on something simple doesn't it?

                          The political party can even support armed rebellion ( and you should support their right to voice it BECAUSE The people they represent will have much less INCENTIVE to rebel because they are voicing their frustration )... Best example I can come up with is Belgium with Flemish voicing complete separation and forming a different country from Waloons. Every time the parties are banned, they reform and call themselves something else. If they would put a complete stopper on political outlet there would be an active and growing rebellion. Once you remove their political outlet and the ability to voice their beliefs they have no other option but violence.

                          Laws are made and re-made and sometimes they are beyond idiotic. A broken law shouldn't lead to a broken country.

                          Language issue I can sort of understand Russian/Ukrainian interplay in Ukraine (granted they haven't put anyone in jail for speaking Russian in an official function but the nationalist interplay is there. Maybe in the future if the government is sufficiently stupid since it progressively becomes more and more stupid witch each election). [and the difference between Russian and Ukrainian is low enough for people to speak to each other and completely understand one another, anyways]

                          Having regional language in Turkey would make some sense but if that's not possible at least do marginal things. Streamlining business centers to create money flows. I am sure there is something Turkey can create on the Kyrgyzstan market model in those areas that would be fed by inter-regional trade. (Kygyzstan has a huge chinese market that is in essence like a wholesale outlet for shipping goods to countries in region)
                          Light manufacturing incentives I don't know really but the region could have cashed in on the whole Iraqi rebuilding far more than it probably had.

                          Thus far Turkey in essence emulated Russia. Clan politics BUT Chechnya is far smaller population wise and Russia was supported by a plurality of clans say 1/4-1/3rd, Turkey is only marginally supported say 1/10th or less on the ground. The problem with clan politics is they support you today but if they can see an outlet or weakness they turn on you with the arms you armed them with.
                          Assad to play
                          Assad has taken advantage of the current crisis in the country to establish a “Kurdish autonomous region” in Syria in the event that he falls from power in a similar fashion to Col. Moammar Gadhafi in Libya.
                          The president has been preparing the ground for a Kurdish autonomous regional administration by opening Kurdish schools in the country’s north, reported Le Figaro, adding that the language of instruction was Kurdish and that the Kurdish anthem was sung every day.
                          First official backer.
                          I am sure there will be support if Kurds go independent from U.S. and U.K as well as Europe now they have a channel through which it goes (I am talking about military materiel). The recent oil deals with majors in Iraqi Kurdistan are basically incentives for that to happen in the future.

                          Assad is selling that corner of Syria to the Kurds, I think if he survives Syria will get sunni provinces in Iraq. There will still be an Iraq just a smaller shiite one.
                          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            sorry for not having enough time to write more but i wanted to express my opinions.

                            since the Osetia incident between Russia&Georgia with the start of Armenian-Turkish talks (i dont think that this is over, we'll see) and ofc lately US withdraw from Iraq (remember what Hilary Clinton said about Turkey being US's local ally),

                            i was expecting pkk's dissolution.

                            the time for pkk seems to be ended for now and those attacks are (me thinks) just the signs of bad interal relations & resistance of mountain branch in pkk.

                            the political branch sees the realities and tries to re-organise accordingly but you can not suddenly tell thousands of people that they must stop to fight & turn their homes without any gainings. so mountain branch resists and political branch supports that resistance thinking that they can get something more to strenghten their cards.

                            on the other hand pkk is supported by many many countries in different ways, so their actions are not always in one logical and sequential way.

                            as for Syrians & Iraqi soil,

                            i think Esad will do every crazy thing to stay in power but it seems that the tide turned dramatically for him.

                            the rest is only a matter of time.

                            as for Kurds,

                            well they will stay as they are now. the clan politics are their curse.

                            if one can unite them only then it will be a different story.


                            regards

                            Kerem
                            Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Big K View Post
                              sorry for not having enough time to write more but i wanted to express my opinions.

                              since the Osetia incident between Russia&Georgia with the start of Armenian-Turkish talks (i dont think that this is over, we'll see) and ofc lately US withdraw from Iraq (remember what Hilary Clinton said about Turkey being US's local ally),

                              i was expecting pkk's dissolution.

                              the time for pkk seems to be ended for now and those attacks are (me thinks) just the signs of bad interal relations & resistance of mountain branch in pkk.

                              the political branch sees the realities and tries to re-organise accordingly but you can not suddenly tell thousands of people that they must stop to fight & turn their homes without any gainings. so mountain branch resists and political branch supports that resistance thinking that they can get something more to strenghten their cards.

                              on the other hand pkk is supported by many many countries in different ways, so their actions are not always in one logical and sequential way.

                              as for Syrians & Iraqi soil,

                              i think Esad will do every crazy thing to stay in power but it seems that the tide turned dramatically for him.

                              the rest is only a matter of time.

                              as for Kurds,

                              well they will stay as they are now. the clan politics are their curse.

                              if one can unite them only then it will be a different story.


                              regards

                              Kerem
                              The benefit of having a decentralized system, like the clans is that if one is wiped out other rise to take their place. The problem it is not very efficient when you try to concentrate forces to push through (unless you have a very big clan). And Kurds have very big clans organized in essence in a national type setting. They have used the Iraq experience in command/control, and other maneuvers to interlink their abilities.

                              I mentioned before that I think PKK will get hurt and simply pour into other factions in Iraqi Kurdistan with their ideals transitioning. Ergo while those factions don't want to push into Turkey for a national ideal beyond the borders of what they have. Amalgamating PKK areas&constituency into their zone of control will force them to perform to those expectations and do so, ergo uprising into Turkey with invasion from Iraqi North.

                              http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38663&tx_ttnews[backPid]=26&cHash=b05b41197d32640af1fe37118fdf30d9



                              http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38673&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=2bbf6946246e159829be57fef10c208f

                              However, there is a strong body of opinion in Turkey critical of the government’s increasingly vocal confrontation with Syria. For many analysts, this new state of affairs in relations with Syria marks an obvious weakness in the government’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy, under which Turkey had sought to forge closer relations with Damascus and other capitals in surrounding regions. The fact that Turkey is on the brink of going to war against a leader with whom Turkish leaders had established a close friendship is seen as an indication of the failure of Turkey’s Middle Eastern policy.
                              I agree a big sign of weakness when what you say and what you do happens to diverge from reality

                              Assad is not insane he is very rational and the next step would be to re-align with Israel and U.S. Since Hasbulah gave up on Syria as its' patron and may in fact be selling weapons to the (Uprising)Syrians he can dispense them as well and simply provide intelligence to the Israelies as an act of good will. Also recognizing the Golan as lost would definitely clinch it. Some economic reforms for the population and financing for projects developing energy pipelines to the coast from Iraqi Kurdistan would create jobs.
                              Last edited by cyppok; 16 Nov 11,, 07:57.
                              Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Cyppok, I agree with you on political and cultural rights of Kurds and that they should have political representation. OTOH your claim that political parties can support violence is unacceptable. Turkey is not a dictatorial nation, we have shortcomings and laws that need to change but precondition for joining the debate on change is respect to democracy and laws. Minorities should have full democratic and cultural rights but they don't have the right to secession. Belgians might accept a break up, that is up to them, this doesn't mean others should follow the same state model and indeed most nations don't.

                                Tony Blair recently made a speech in which he said they only started negotiations with IRA after terrorists agreed to non-violance. I believe we should aslo follow a similar model.

                                On the military confrontation between Kurds and Turkey, I really don't understand why do you place such high trust in their conventional capabilities. PKK is a terrorist organization with zero conventional experience or capability, KRG army is a green force in conventional warfare with no history of any independent major operation, which don't have an airforce and yet you still assume they will attack the second largest army of NATO across difficult terrain.

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