Will UN grant statehood to Palestine: showdown nearing

[Doktor]

No. US and most likely UK and Russia veto.

Why would Russia put veto if US does it first? They can be neutral ;)

[JAD_333]

I doubt it. The only possible change in world perception would be that people will start holding the Palestinians accountable for their actions.

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Kind of what I had in mind.

I am not one of those "Everyone hates/blames Israel anyway", I believe in changing that point of view and hate hearing it bandied about, but let's face it, Israel PR machine sucks, and it's a hell of a lot easier to play the victim, something the Palestinians already have decades of experience doing.

Nor am I, but I know from my PR experience the stronger party to a conflict gets little sympathy even when in the right. From a distant perspective, Israel's settlement policy trumps all else. It appears also that Israeli is dragging its feet to settle as much territory as it can. It just doesn't look right to fair-minded people. Those people do not appreciate Israel's precarious security situation. I've seen very good strategic diagrams that bring home the latter, but it's not what the MSM serves up to the general public. I don't know how Israel overcomes the PR problem.

Of course it can. In a million and one different ways. Truth is, if you pardon the figure of speech, you probably will be able to find one million and one ways it could be worse

In either case or only in the case that statehood is recognized?

[InExile]

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Nor am I, but I know from my PR experience the stronger party to a conflict gets little sympathy even when in the right. From a distant perspective, Israel's settlement policy trumps all else. It appears also that Israeli is dragging its feet to settle as much territory as it can. It just doesn't look right to fair-minded people. Those people do not appreciate Israel's precarious security situation. I've seen very good strategic diagrams that bring home the latter, but it's not what the MSM serves up to the general public. I don't know how Israel overcomes the PR problem.

Israel is a small country surrounded by hostile neighbors, but it does have a powerful military as well as being a close ally of the US. I dont think that Israel faces an existential threat in the short to medium term, and probably even long term, in the current environment. There is the problem that terrorism emanating from the West Bank could threaten the population centers of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, as well as the risk of making Israel just 8 miles wide at the narrowest and thus vulnerable, if the entire West Bank was out of its control. But it is generally recognized that Israel will keep the major settlements, as well as take what steps are necessary ; like the wall for instance to reduce this threat.

I dont see the Israeli security situation as precarious, atleast to the extent that the security concern justifies that it needs to occupy the entire West Bank, have settlements well beyond even the green line. Perhaps its my background growing up in a country that was a victim of Imperialism; but I cannot see the Israeli actions and settlements as anything else other than an attempt at gaining ever more territory at the expense of the indigenous people; bad PR machine or not.

[Bigfella]

. Learn from the Egypt saga. The protesters there had nothing to do with Israel, they were conducting a demonstration against the military rulers there, and what do you know? 'Oh look, here is an Israeli embassy here, that's what is causing our problems not these military guys, let ransack it!'.

You need to pay attention more:

1) Unpopular military dictatorship becomes effective Israeli ally without consulting population;

2) Israel actively lobbies US to keep said dictatorship in power while millions take to the streets to win their freedom;

3) Israeli Embassy only attacked after a number of Egyptian soldiers are killed by israel.

I don't doubt for a moment that there is a lot of anti-Israel sentiment in Egypt, but not even a blatant attempt by Israel to try to keep Mubarak in power was enough to bring that attack - it took dead Egyptians. Israel (or a solid segment of the people who matter there & their acolytes elsewhere) has convinced itself that pretty much anything it decides is 'necessary for Israel's security' is justifiable, not matter what the consequences. America has invaded nations for less. So has Israel.

[Double Edge]

I was hoping we'd take this discussion to the future in broad terms. We all more or less know the status quo and who the actors are. But what happens after the UN General Assembly confers statehood on Palestine.

As i go through the 3 threads on this subject, nobody seems to know WHEN such a vote is going to come up or they don't care.

Palestinians Give UN Time Amid Pressure to Drop State Bid | Bloomberg | Sep 22 2011

Once a membership application has been lodged, the Security Council can delay the process. For South Sudan, it took three days to make the African country the UN’s 193rd member while Jordan had to wait five years. In the case of the Palestinians, an admissions committee representing all 15 council members might be set up to deliberate on the matter for days, weeks or even months.

So it could be some time before this goes to vote, there is no deadline, because there is no US support currently which could expand to abstentions in the UNSC if enough countries are persuaded...

The Palestinians have said at least eight of the council’s members -- Russia, China, Gabon, Nigeria, South Africa, Brazil, Lebanon and India -- will back them. The U.S. veto pledge notwithstanding, that still leaves the Palestinians one vote short of the nine needed for membership.

and so..

Another option open to the Palestinians would be to pursue an upgraded status at the General Assembly, from “entity” to “non-member state,” such as the Holy See, the government of the Roman Catholic Church, based in the Vatican. That could enable them to sign international treaties and have cases heard in the International Criminal Court.

If there is insufficent support there will be no vote and it then becomes irrelevant what people think about this issue. Secondly there will be no US veto display either which would queer relations in the ME.

Am getting the impression that it does not look very promising that there will ever be enough support in the UNSC to push this forward. And if thats the case then this is a dead isssue to me as of now. Nothing more to see here folks.

[Doktor]

No Bosnian support? Strange.

Anyway, you came to the same conclusion as US and Israel. Negotiations and then a state ;)

Nice work.

[Cedz]

You need to pay attention more:

1) Unpopular military dictatorship becomes effective Israeli ally without consulting population;

2) Israel actively lobbies US to keep said dictatorship in power while millions take to the streets to win their freedom;

3) Israeli Embassy only attacked after a number of Egyptian soldiers are killed by israel.

I don't doubt for a moment that there is a lot of anti-Israel sentiment in Egypt, but not even a blatant attempt by Israel to try to keep Mubarak in power was enough to bring that attack - it took dead Egyptians. Israel (or a solid segment of the people who matter there & their acolytes elsewhere) has convinced itself that pretty much anything it decides is 'necessary for Israel's security' is justifiable, not matter what the consequences. America has invaded nations for less. So has Israel.

Your argument doesn't really hold up when you consider that before those Egyptian soldiers were killed, eight Israeli's were killed by militants entering into Israel via the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula. The Israeli government formally apologised for the deaths of those Egyptian soldiers as they should have. Since when has any country in the Middle East apologised to Israel for anything? Doesn't the Egyptian government owe Israeli an apology for allowing their embassy to be ransacked?

I'd also like to hear what security decisions you think Israel has made that aren't justified by the aggressive stance that is taken by every nation that she shares a border with. I mean they've only tried to annihilate Israel by conventional warfare what, three times in the past 60 years? If you want to start talking about consequences then maybe you should start with what Israel should do to survive the fourth.

[Double Edge]

No Bosnian support? Strange.

Anyway, you came to the same conclusion as US and Israel. Negotiations and then a state ;)

Nice work.

My point is if they cannot get a UNSC vote in their favour then what good is this move ?

GA support is going to give them what exactly ? they go from 'enitity' to 'non-member state' which means now they can sign international treaties and have cases heard in the International Criminal Court.

Israel has signed the Rome statute but has yet to ratify it. So no IDF personnel are going to be put before the ICC any time soon.

Palestine will still remain a non UN recognised state and by the looks of it the US isn't going to change their mind over this anytime soon.

Why is Abbas doing this ? Why now ?

Elections are already overdue in the west bank by two years, is this a ploy to win support for an upcoming election. Maybe give tham a decisive edge over Hamas.

[Doktor]

The way I see it, it's a pure desperation.

What other moves he really has? Talks with Israel? With all the preconditions it is impossible for a Palestinian leader to sit and talk.

If both sides sit and start from scratches, then something could come out from all that.

[BB61Vet]

I often wonder if the rest of the world just left them alone (read as: locked their respective PM's in a room by themselves and left them there) if Israel and Palestine could resolve their differences? Even if it was a situation where two men entered but only one left, at least a solution would've been reached.

[bigross86]

Read my post in the thread about Netanyahu's speech

[Zinja]

I don't doubt for a moment that there is a lot of anti-Israel sentiment in Egypt, but not even a blatant attempt by Israel to try to keep Mubarak in power was enough to bring that attack

They didn't because the rod was still in Mubarak's hand.

[JAD_333]

I often wonder if the rest of the world just left them alone (read as: locked their respective PM's in a room by themselves and left them there) if Israel and Palestine could resolve their differences? Even if it was a situation where two men entered but only one left, at least a solution would've been reached.

I sometimes share part one that of your fantasy. My rule would be that no media reports would be allowed, as either side can easily scuttle talks simply by launching a rocket attack or responding to one. But it is a fantasy nonetheless, since the success of talks depends tremendously on public opinion within both countries, and with militant groups on both sides dead set against a settlement, it will take both grit and a pressing imperative on both sides to get it done.

[astralis]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/06/op...y.html?_r=1&hp

Is Israel Its Own Worst Enemy?
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published: October 5, 2011

For decades, Palestinian leaders sometimes seemed to be their own people’s worst enemies.

Palestinian radicals antagonized the West, and, when militant leaders turned to hijackings and rockets, they undermined the Palestinian cause around the world. They empowered Israeli settlers and hard-liners, while eviscerating Israeli doves.

These days, the world has been turned upside down. Now it is Israel that is endangered most by its leaders and maximalist stance. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is isolating his country, and, to be blunt, his hard line on settlements seems like a national suicide policy.

Nothing is more corrosive than Israel’s growth of settlements because they erode hope of a peace agreement in the future. Mr. Netanyahu’s latest misstep came after the Obama administration humiliated itself by making a full-court diplomatic press to block Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. At a time when President Obama had a few other things on his plate — averting a global economic meltdown, for example — the United States frittered good will by threatening to veto the Palestinian statehood that everybody claims to favor.

With that diplomatic fight at the United Nations under way, Israel last week announced plans for 1,100 new housing units in a part of Jerusalem outside its pre-1967 borders. Instead of showing appreciation to President Obama, Mr. Netanyahu thumbed him in the eye.

O.K., I foresee a torrent of angry responses. I realize that many insist that Jerusalem must all belong to Israel in any peace deal anyway, so new settlements there don’t count. But, if that’s your position, then you can kiss any peace deal goodbye. Every negotiator knows the framework of a peace agreement — 1967 borders with land swaps, Jerusalem as the capital of both Israeli and Palestinian states, only a token right of return — and insistence on a completely Israeli Jerusalem simply means no peace agreement ever.

Former President Bill Clinton said squarely in September that Mr. Netanyahu is to blame for the failure of the Middle East peace process. A background factor, Mr. Clinton noted correctly, is the demographic and political change within Israeli society, which has made the country more conservative when it comes to border and land issues.

Granted, Mr. Netanyahu is far from the only obstacle to peace. The Palestinians are divided, with Hamas controlling Gaza. And Hamas not only represses its own people but also managed to devastate the peace movement in Israel. That’s the saddest thing about the Middle East: hard-liners like Hamas empower hard-liners like Mr. Netanyahu.

We’re facing a dangerous period in the Middle East. Most Palestinians seem to feel as though the Oslo peace process has fizzled, and Israelis seem to agree, with two-thirds saying in a recent poll published in the newspaper Yediot Aharonot that there is no chance of peace with Palestinians — ever.

The Palestinians’ best hope would be a major grass-roots movement of nonviolent peaceful resistance aimed at illegal West Bank settlements, led by women and inspired by the work of Mahatma Gandhi and the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. A growing number of Palestinians are taking up variants of that model, although they sometimes ruin it by defining nonviolence to include stone-throwing and by giving the leading role to hotheaded young men.

The Israel Defense Forces can deal with suicide bombers and rockets fired by Hezbollah. I’m not sure that they can defeat Palestinian women blocking roads to illegal settlements and willing to endure tear gas and clubbing — with videos promptly posted on YouTube.

Mr. Netanyahu has also undermined Israeli security by burning bridges with Israel’s most important friend in the region, Turkey. Now there is also the risk of clashes in the Mediterranean between Israeli and Turkish naval vessels. That’s one reason Defense Secretary Leon Panetta scolded the Israeli government a few days ago for isolating itself diplomatically.

So where do we go from here? If a peace deal is not forthcoming soon, and if Israel continues its occupation, then Israel should give the vote in Israeli elections to all Palestinians in the areas it controls. If Jews in the West Bank can vote, then Palestinians there should be able to as well.

That’s what democracy means: people have the right to vote on the government that controls their lives. Some of my Israeli friends will think I’m unfair and harsh, applying double standards by focusing on Israeli shortcomings while paying less attention to those of other countries in the region. Fair enough: I plead guilty. I apply higher standards to a close American ally like Israel that is a huge recipient of American aid.

Friends don’t let friends drive drunk — or drive a diplomatic course that leaves their nation veering away from any hope of peace. Today, Israel’s leaders sometimes seem to be that country’s worst enemies, and it’s an act of friendship to point that out.

[bigross86]

I agree with large parts of what he said, aside from that shit about Turkey. There's no reason in the world Israel is the catalyst behind that clusterfuck, and trying to pin the blame for it on Israel shows where this man stands