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Thread: What if - Spain joined the Axis in 1939.

  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Indonesian oil, Malayan tin, etc. wouldn't have hurt their output. They would get the natural resources they felt they needed w/o having to fight us right away.
    Who says? The IJN is in the West supporting all these operations, leaving the East wide open and if the IJN stays East, they can't go West.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Assuming we are down the path of fighting, it gives them to chance to exploit Indonesia and Malaysia for a couple of years unmolested.

    ==========
    I'm sure we would also have a good deal of time to build up our forces in the Philippines and train a proper Philippine Army.
    And it's a force the IJN has absolutely no chance against. The Japanese took the best chance they had. American output was reving up. They had to inflict some losses in order to keep pace. Yamamoto stated that he had six months to win this war. Imagine two years in which the Japanese continues to take loses while the Americans are free from casualties and a continued build up.

  2. #122
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    Who says? The IJN is in the West supporting all these operations, leaving the East wide open and if the IJN stays East, they can't go West.
    If they rumble south w/o striking PH/Philippines, I don't think FDR could declare war on Japan for them kicking out the Dutch, giving the Japanese a freehand in taking those resources.

    And it's a force the IJN has absolutely no chance against. The Japanese took the best chance they had. American output was reving up. They had to inflict some losses in order to keep pace. Yamamoto stated that he had six months to win this war. Imagine two years in which the Japanese continues to take loses while the Americans are free from casualties and a continued build up.
    They felt they had six months after PH, take PH out and they aren't at war with us. In 1942 without PH how ready was the US public to put millions of lives at risk over the Franco-Dutch overseas holdings?

    Would our war bonds have pictures of people with wooden shoes on?
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    If they rumble south w/o striking PH/Philippines, I don't think FDR could declare war on Japan for them kicking out the Dutch, giving the Japanese a freehand in taking those resources.
    What resources? Indonesaian rubber teplacing fuel? You are not looking at the real logistics. Japan had enough fuel to last six months of free war. Taking SE Asia and the rest of her campaigns allowed her to extend to 1945 but she was done. She was starved. Especially when the oil came from the Mid East and Japan has no counter to Canadian/Texan oil fields.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    They felt they had six months after PH, take PH out and they aren't at war with us.
    You don't get it. For a Turkic/Mongol historian, you've failed to see what the Japanese was looking for - the KNOCK OUT BLOW! A slaughter so big that it cowed the rest of the population into surrender. The Japanese thought they had it at Nanking. Nanking was their disaster. You know as well as anyone such a slaughter as two effects. One to cowed the enemy. The other was to galvanized the enemy.

    I challenge you. Do you think Japan has a hope in hell after Nanking? I do not.

    Nanking was China's Stalingrad.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    In 1942 without PH how ready was the US public to put millions of lives at risk over the Franco-Dutch overseas holdings?

    Would our war bonds have pictures of people with wooden shoes on?
    No matter what time periods you want to push this. Japan never had a hope of winning.

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    They felt they had six months after PH, take PH out and they aren't at war with us. In 1942 without PH how ready was the US public to put millions of lives at risk over the Franco-Dutch overseas holdings?
    Ok, I've finally understood you but understand me. Korea and Manchuria WAS THE Imperial Japanese Empire. Lose them and Japan lost the War. Period. There was no way in hell for Japan to keep either Korea nor Manchuria once the Chinese got their act together. A young Li Peng would chew an old Yamamoto any day of the week!

  5. #125
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    What resources? Indonesaian rubber teplacing fuel? You are not looking at the real logistics. Japan had enough fuel to last six months of free war. Taking SE Asia and the rest of her campaigns allowed her to extend to 1945 but she was done. She was starved. Especially when the oil came from the Mid East and Japan has no counter to Canadian/Texan oil fields.
    Indonesia had active oil fields at the time. We are not talking Texas here but without subs and CBGs it could make up for some degree of the shortfall. Put those resources to use in breaking down the Chinese along with Japanese formations/air crew who aren't off getting killed in cut off islands.

    I challenge you. Do you think Japan has a hope in hell after Nanking? I do not. Nanking was China's Stalingrad.
    Prince Dodo acted just as bad at Yangzhou. Without America winning the war for them (nuking Japan, cutting off the home islands, killing their air force and navy etc..) the Chinese would basically be at the mercy of Japan. Japan was able to place thousands upon thousands of Chinese/Manchus/Mongols in uniform even with their anti-social conduct. Cut China off from external supplies and put the IJA into Burma, how much of a fight would the Chinese actually have in them?

    Period. There was no way in hell for Japan to keep either Korea nor Manchuria once the Chinese got their act together. A young Li Peng would chew an old Yamamoto any day of the week!
    With Japanese divisions romping through Chinese territory and the Chinese cut off from the world and more importantly military supplies could they actually get their acts together? The KMT and CCP were a each others throats during the war, the CCP killed KMT guerrilla forces. Japan was in a situation where, if provided enough firepower, they could march where they wanted to go and flatten Chinese units, destroy Chinese infrastructure and rape and pillage the countryside; while China couldn't touch a Japanese occupied Indonesia or a factory on the home islands. Japan built better tanks, bombers and other weapons as the war dragged on, while making rifles and mortars is considered an accomplishment in China.
    Last edited by troung; 06 Sep 11, at 05:03.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Indonesia had active oil fields at the time. We are not talking Texas here but without subs and CBGs it could make up for some degree of the shortfall. Put those resources to use in breaking down the Chinese along with Japanese formations/air crew who aren't off getting killed in cut off islands.
    In the real history, the refineries did not come on line until 43/44 to counter the Americans. Expect the same here.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Prince Dodo acted just as bad at Yangzhou. Without America winning the war for them the Chinese would basically be at the mercy of Japan. Japan was able to place thousands upon thousands of Chinese/Manchus/Mongols in uniform even with their anti-social conduct. Cut China off from external supplies and put the IJA into Burma, how much of a fight would the Chinese actually have in them?
    As much as they had they have their entire history. China has the one thing the Japan never had, Mao Tse-Tung and the only equivlent the Japanese had, Hirehito, he was a freaking coward!

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    With Japanese divisions romping through Chinese territory and the Chinese cut off from the world and more importantly military supplies could they actually get their acts together?
    Oh, come on! Troung, the Little Red Book is a required reading. Albeit it is little more than a rehash of Sun Tze's the Art of War but it does mean that China produced Generals on par AND better than Japan in the 20th Century.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    With Japanese divisions romping through Chinese territory and the Chinese cut off from the world and more importantly military supplies could they actually get their acts together? The KMT and CCP were a each others throats during the war, the CCP killed KMT guerrilla forces. Japan was in a situation where, if provided enough firepower, they could march where they wanted to go and flatten Chinese units, destroy Chinese infrastructure and rape and pillage the countryside; while China couldn't touch a Japanese occupied Indonesia or a factory on the home islands. Japan built better tanks, bombers and other weapons as the war dragged on, while making rifles and mortars is considered an accomplishment in China.
    I did not see this revision. I will irretirate. Korea and Manchuria WAS THE IMPERIAL JAPANESE EMPIRE. Lose them and Japan dies no matter what holdings Japan has in Malaya or Indonessia. At no point during the ENTIRE 2ND SINO-JAPANESE WAR WERE THE CHINESE EVER OUTGUNNED OR OUTMANNED IN ANY BATTLE. That essentially means that the Japanese OUT-GENERALED THE CHINESE.

    That situation was NOT GOING TO LAST. Able Chinese Generals were emerging, albeit only because the stupid ones were dying off ... Like I said, I would have no hesitation of pitting Gen Peng against Yamamotto, hell, the entire Imperial Japanese Empire.

  8. #128
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    In the real history, the refineries did not come on line until 43/44 to counter the Americans. Expect the same here.
    Will come back with response later on this.

    Oh, come on! Troung, the Little Red Book is a required reading. Albeit it is little more than a rehash of Sun Tze's the Art of War but it does mean that China produced Generals on par AND better than Japan in the 20th Century. As much as they had they have their entire history. China has the one thing the Japan never had, Mao Tse-Tung and the only equivlent the Japanese had, Hirehito, he was a freaking coward!
    Mao and Chiang were essentially at war with each other. As I said the Manchus actually at times acted up just as badly during their romp through the country, and no different then prior invading hordes the Japanese put thousands of Chinese in uniform.

    Mao had the benefit of facing hacks or peanut heads those times he looked good... . But Mao would not have the benefit of hundred of thousands of captured Japanese rifles and a thousand field guns, and the Japanese were far more capable then the KMT; far more air-power and artillery, far more armor, poison gas, ready to go Mongol on any opposition, and ethnically different reducing defections.

    I did not see this revision. I will irretirate. Korea and Manchuria WAS THE IMPERIAL JAPANESE EMPIRE. Lose them and Japan dies no matter what holdings Japan has in Malaya or Indonessia. At no point during the ENTIRE 2ND SINO-JAPANESE WAR WERE THE CHINESE EVER OUTGUNNED OR OUTMANNED IN ANY BATTLE. That essentially means that the Japanese OUT-GENERALED THE CHINESE.
    Put the newer Japanese equipment which came onto line during the 1940s (tanks, field guns, planes) and remove American assistance from the Chinese. I don't see the Chinese forcing the Japanese out. An ugly stalemate with the Japanese doing chevauchées. I can see some sort of deal being struck eventually and a later war but no way could the KMT/CCP force them out on their own.
    Last edited by troung; 06 Sep 11, at 05:35.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Mao and Chiang were essentially at war with each other. As I said the Manchus actually at times acted up just as badly during their romp through the country, and no different then prior invading hordes the Japanese put thousands of Chinese in uniform.
    So again, we come back to the warlords and we know that NO ONE can count on them. CKS got kidnapped by his own man and Hirehito's puppet in Manchuria could not stop Mao's insurgency in that area.

    So, out of the three, Hirehitto, Mao, and Chiang, which one actually inspired totally ignorant millions to do their bidding?

    You've lost that one right off the bat.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    They have had the benefit of facing hacks or peanut heads those times they looked good... lol . But Mao would not have the benefit of hundred of thousands of captured Japanese rifles and a thousand field guns, and the Japanese were far more capable then the KMT; far more air-power and artillery, far more armor, poison gas, ready to go Mongol on any opposition, and ethnically different reducing defections.
    Oh for Pete's sakes. Mao has the one thing neither Hirehitto nor Chiang has AND WOULD NEVER HAVE. It is the story of George Washington's Potemic, Wellington's Waterloo, Leonidas's Thermopalaye, Stalin's Stalingrad, FDR's Pearl Harbour. Mao had the Long March. That alone proved to the masses he was a far more able leader than either Chiang or Hirehitto!

    You are a far better historian than this. Far, far better. There are few men in history who inspired their people to punch far above their weight. Mao Tse-Tung was one of them. Chiang and Hirehitto (and Tojo) were not.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 06 Sep 11, at 05:44.

  10. #130
    A Self Important Senior Contributor troung's Avatar
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    So again, we come back to the warlords and we know that NO ONE can count on them. CKS got kidnapped by his own man and Hirehito's puppet in Manchuria could not stop Mao's insurgency in that area.
    CKS had serious issues and he would sooner set aside and allow the IJA to rain hell on Mao then allow Mao to look good and give himself breathing space.

    So, out of the three, Hirehitto, Mao, and Chiang, which one actually inspired totally ignorant millions to do their bidding?
    Bonzai charges? More importantly the Emperor had millions ready to kill on his behalf and the weapons to arm them.

    Oh for Pete's sakes. Mao has the one thing neither Hirehitto nor Chiang has AND WOULD NEVER HAVE. It is the story of George Washington's Potemic, Wellington's Waterloo, Leonidas's Thermopalaye, Stalin's Stalingrad, FDR's Pearl Harbour. Mao had the Long March. That alone proved to the masses he was a far more able leader than either Chiang or Hirehitto!
    Mao conquered China with huge Japanese stocks left behind by the Soviets, and faced the KMT who lacked the morale and firepower of the Japanese. He might have the propaganda of the long march, but the Japanese had bombers, tanks and poison gas; which also play well with the masses.
    Last edited by troung; 06 Sep 11, at 06:21.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    CKS had serious issues and he would sooner set aside and allow the IJA to rain hell on Mao then allow Mao to look good.
    Except that Japan wasn't that stupid. They massacred Nanking, not Xinjiang caves.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Bonzai charges?
    On par with Cultural Revolution which by the way included Tibetan, Xinjiang Turks, hell, even the Japanese!

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Mao conquered China with huge Japanese stocks left behind by the Soviets, and faced the KMT who lacked the morale and firepower of the Japanese. He might have the propaganda of the long march, but the Japanese had bombers, tanks and poison gas; which also play well with the masses.
    That was simply false and you know it. Mao conquered China with Soviet stocks. He would have ran out of Japanese ammo within the 1st year. And that is the other thing. Mao spent five times the ammunition the IJA ever did, meaning that the IJA was never equipped to take China.

  12. #132
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    Except that Japan wasn't that stupid. They massacred Nanking, not Xinjiang caves.
    If he became a real threat to them, they could push against him. The KMT leadership just screams defeat in detail.

    On par with Cultural Revolution which by the way included Tibetan, Xinjiang Turks, hell, even the Japanese!
    Flash mobs on twitter break stuff. The Japanese unlike the KMT won't be defecting to him in droves even if pushed hard.

    That was simply false and you know it. Mao conquered China with Soviet stocks. He would have ran out of Japanese ammo within the 1st year. And that is the other thing. Mao spent five times the ammunition the IJA ever did, meaning that the IJA was never equipped to take China.
    He wouldn't have Soviet stocks either. So it is Mao with only Chinese equipment - up against the IJA who aren't fighting the USA. Mao doesn't have the ammo or heavy weapons to force them out. They can replace lost tanks and bombers on a scale far exceeding Mao ability to destroy them.

    The IJA had factory workers making shells far in the rear safe from attack, China didn't have a terribly safe base area to create the weapons and ammo to support offensives.
    Last edited by troung; 06 Sep 11, at 07:02.
    To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    If he became a real threat to them, they could push against him. The KMT leadership just screams defeat in detail.
    Mao was out of reach. Xinjiang was too far and way too exposed to a Soviet thrust.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    Flash mobs on twitter break stuff. The Japanese unlike the KMT won't be defecting to him in droves even if pushed hard.
    It does not detract from the point that Mao was a better inspirator than Hirehito. We're talking charisma here, who can get more to do more. Mao has it in spades. Hirehito ... well, that picture with MacArthur destroyed the Imperial Japanese Empire forever.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    He wouldn't have Soviet stocks either.
    Are we leaving the entire real history behind? Let's be blunt. Both the US and the USSR would NEVER leave China alone against Japan.

    Quote Originally Posted by troung View Post
    So it is Mao with only Chinese equipment - up against the IJA who aren't fighting the USA. Mao doesn't have the ammo or heavy weapons to force them out. They can replace lost tanks and bombers on a scale far exceeding Mao ability to destroy them. The IJA had factory workers making shells far in the rear, Mao had dance troupes.
    And this ignores the real history why the US sanctioned Japan and readied her Navy for war and why Stalin fought a border war with Japan before leaving 45 divisions permanently in Siberia to make sure Tojo don't do anything stupid.

    You can depart from the real history to a point. Making both the US and the USSR neutral in a war between China and Japan goes straight into the relm of fiction instead of alternative history.

  14. #134
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    doesn't this argument essentially boil down to a will vs means?

    i understand the chinese had the will after nanjing but the question is if they had the means to kick out the japanese. you could have great chinese generals coming out of the woodwork but if the other guy has tanks and air support and you don't...
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    i understand the chinese had the will after nanjing but the question is if they had the means to kick out the japanese. you could have great chinese generals coming out of the woodwork but if the other guy has tanks and air support and you don't...
    I think they were doing it, Astralis. By 1941, for the Japanese the conflict was looking to be long term at best, unwinnable at worst. Chinese losses were enormous, but even against divided opposition the Japanese had suffered perhaps 750,000 casualties.

    The IJA's rebuffs in China and against the Soviet Union led to the plans of the Navy's Strike South faction being considered instead, and we know how that finished up ... Japan started up a new war in the Pacific while its huge army was locked in East Asia.

    Chinese resistance really had global ramifications.
    Last edited by clackers; 06 Sep 11, at 14:09.

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