col,
that was part of it, but the japanese were also concerned about US interference into malaya and the dutch east indies. there were oil/rubber resources there, which the japanese later used for their fight against the US.
if the US stays out of the war or drops out after a year or two (which is quite possible if there was nothing galvanizing like pearl harbor), i don't think japan would have had such a limiting factor. ironically i think japan was weakest in terms of resource security in 1940-1941.
it took the massive KMT defections in '48 and '49 that turned the CCP so powerful, though. recall that those KMT troops were also armed with a whole bunch of US lendlease.
i certainly don't envision japan outright annexing china either, but i think it's within the realm of possibility for japan to set up a whole bunch of puppet states with their requisite armies. the japanese would just need to provide air power and tanks if need be, enough so that the rump KMT/CCP states would find it difficult to advance.
how many millions of men and aircraft did japan expend against the US? imagine if a good portion of this were transferred to the china front. japanese factories remain unbombed, with an intact japanese navy/transport fleet.
that had to do SOMETHING.
if nothing else, the japanese could have executed a more robust version of the blockhouse strategy that CKS used against quite good effect against the CCP in the 30s civil war. again, i posit summer 1944, where even with US aid, US participation in the war, the KMT at least were still getting slaughtered by the japanese B team...a B team which was itself destroyed in a month by the soviets.
The war started in 1937 and they could not have deliver the knock out blow right up until Pearl Harbour. In very fact, the reason why Japan took on the US was that they were denied the resources to take China. Except if the US was Japan's ally, there was no way in hell for Japan to get the oil she needed to take China
if the US stays out of the war or drops out after a year or two (which is quite possible if there was nothing galvanizing like pearl harbor), i don't think japan would have had such a limiting factor. ironically i think japan was weakest in terms of resource security in 1940-1941.
Even if Japan had taken Southern China, the CCP in the north was becoming more and more powerful and do recall it was the CCP who swept down from the north to drive the KMT out from the south.
In no way ever can I see Japan ever conquering China. She did not have the manpower and she certainly did not have staying power.
how many millions of men and aircraft did japan expend against the US? imagine if a good portion of this were transferred to the china front. japanese factories remain unbombed, with an intact japanese navy/transport fleet.
that had to do SOMETHING.
if nothing else, the japanese could have executed a more robust version of the blockhouse strategy that CKS used against quite good effect against the CCP in the 30s civil war. again, i posit summer 1944, where even with US aid, US participation in the war, the KMT at least were still getting slaughtered by the japanese B team...a B team which was itself destroyed in a month by the soviets.
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