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Thread: Serbia-the autopsy report

  1. #1
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Serbia-the autopsy report

    I have realized, just recently, that I actually never touched this subject. Today, the German chancellor Angela Merkel made her visit to Belgrade in effort to tackle the crisis in the northern Kosovo, that lasts for about a month now. The development of the events points only in one direction, towards another flow of Serbian refuges from Kosovo, this time 65.000 of them before it gets colder, meaning in September or October since the weather conditions are in favor. No doubt that, if it happens, this event will most likely change the political scene in Serbia, leading to the rise of extreme right and from that point on things can get pretty ugly. So, before it starts, I will go trough the autopsy of Serbia since it is pretty much an living dead now and it won't mind. I will try to be precise as much as I can in my analysis of the Serbian undead corpse. If you have the strong stomach for spelling and grammar errors, I invite you to watch the Versus autopsy class.

    So let us begin, shall we...
    Last edited by Versus; 23 Aug 11, at 22:12.

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    I am translating the final pieces so I will give now the general outline of the analysis.

    Table of content:
    1. Introduction
    2. History of the conflict
    3. Tensions
    4. Insurgency
    5. Operation “Allied Force”
    6. Aftermath
    7. Borderline insurgency
    8. Milosevic's demise
    9. Assassination
    10. Kristallnacht, march 2004
    11. The rise of ultra nationalists
    12. Stalemate
    13. Negotiations
    14. Northern crisis
    15. Conclusion

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    The incidents.

    Negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina (Serbian and Kosovo capital cities) started in Brussels, on March 8 2011 as a part of the efforts to normalize regional relationships and over all push toward Serbian EU membership. After initial weak results, two delegations started to find common ground in the middle of process and than on the third round, negotiations went into a stall. The issue at hand was the freedom of movement between Kosovo and Serbia and the usage of customs stamps. Since the Pristina requested that the people and goods can travel in and out from Kosovo only with the passports and official state issued Kosovo seals the Serbian delegation found this to be unacceptable since by accepting the Kosovo customs stamps as official, it would have to accept the Kosovo as an independent state. Also the Kosovo delegation stated that the freedom of movement can be done only on the reciprocity basis, meaning that the quantity of goods that Kosovo imports form Serbia has to match the quantity of goods that Kosovo exports to Serbia. Actually the whole point of Kosovo stance in these negotiations is that Serbia has to deal with Kosovo on the basis of reciprocity. But since Serbia doesn't recognize Kosovo as an independent state it can't deal with it on the reciprocity basis. This stalemate lead to escalation. Kosovo imposed economic embargo on all goods from Serbia and sent the ROSU (Regional Operations Support Unit) or Kosovo Police Special unit to secure the northern borderline crossing in order to secure Pristina's decision.
    The northern part of Kosovo is mostly populated by Serbs whom self organized and placed roadblocks. When the ROSU came, tensions erupted and firefight broke out. The clash lasted for couple of hours, officially leaving three Kosovo Serbs wounded and one ROSU officer dead, shoot in the head by a sniper. KFOR reacted by sending forces to secure the region, remove the roadblocks and try to ease the tensions. This incident sent the shock waves both in Pristina and Belgrade and two parties started accusing each other for provoking it. The KFOR requested additional reinforcements from NATO. Than the second incident happened. On July 29. around 7 pm a group of young men started to rally and soon riots broke out, burning the border crossings buildings and vehicles. After the rioting ended, the young men left the scene and the KFOR authorized the usage of lethal force. I have no information for the order, did it came during the rioting or soon after, but probably during the rioting. Belgrade police offered assistance to the EULEX (the EU police force in Kosovo) by pointing at the Serbian criminal structures in the northern part of Kosovo as the main source of the incidents.
    Currently the investigation is underway, the EULEX has the names of the suspects and efforts are made to bring them into the custody. Meanwhile NATO forces are in negotiations with the northern Kosovo Serbs in effort to remove roadblocks and stabilize the situation. So far, the roadblocks are removed and Kosovo Serbs are cooperative with the KFOR. But another possible hot spot emerged, on the bridge construction site that is being funded by the Kosovo govt, near the village of Priluzje, which is populated entirely with Serbs.

    The new round of negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina is scheduled for September if the situation doesn't escalate.
    Last edited by Versus; 24 Aug 11, at 00:07.

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    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Versus, I think you jumped 2 decades, demonstrations in Pristina in the early '80s, wars in Slovenia, Croatia and B&H...
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  5. #5
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Versus, I think you jumped 2 decades, demonstrations in Pristina in the early '80s, wars in Slovenia, Croatia and B&H...
    This is the current situation. I will continue tomorrow since it is 1 am here, I need to go to bed. Don't worry everything will be included, I've fixed the title. Introduction will come tomorrow. Two decades? The conflict started in 1920 my good Doktor.
    Last edited by Versus; 24 Aug 11, at 00:09.

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    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    I am waiting. Always wanted to hear it from a calm Serb's perspective.

    1920? I thought the Battle for Kosovo was earlier.

    Sir, they were pretty quiet till '70s
    Last edited by Doktor; 24 Aug 11, at 00:14.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Introduction

    “The negotiations were very hard, for a few moments I had the impression that I am talking with the beings form another planet” -Borislav Stefanovic, chief negotiator for the Belgrade delegation.

    This statement is true and it reflects the whole situation in a single sentence. It reflects the gravity of relationships between Serbs and Albanians, for one simple reason. Those relationships never really existed.

    The first mistake when dealing with civil war in former Yugoslavia, is to put the conflict between Albanians and Serbs in the same context as conflicts in Slovenia,Croatia and Bosnia. It is totally a different ball game. Slovenian war was the swift clash between ideologies, the war in Croatia was a pure nationalistic/religious bloodbath, the war in Bosnia was the meat grinding hell. But not the Kosovo. It is THE mothership, the origin,the ground zero,the source of all hate that consumed former Yugoslavia in such savage and brutal way. No my dear WABists, Kosovo wasn't the hell.

    Kosovo is the Hell's gate.

    The hatred there is in its pure form, untouched by the ideological magic that held the Yugoslavia together for nearly 50 years. But the hatred was much older than Yugoslavia itself. It laid dormant, gathering strength for one century and when it finally hatched, it destroyed everything. That hate is almost like a mythical being form fairy tales, a powerful demon on a epic scale. That power is so tempting, so seductive that it is almost impossible to resist. You really need to be a holy man to deal with it. But the man whom broke the demon's chains was not the holly man. The man whom released the demon was just that, a man. Confident man, a man with a plan, a strong man but just a man. He was a communist,internationalist, man whom believed in men not the Gods. He heard the whispers from beneath, the demon loured him into the chamber and offered unspeakable power. He took it with both hands. The name of that man is Slobodan Milosevic.

    Everything that Milosevic touched, turned into the rubble as he tried to control the demon as source of power. Power that he used for the thing that he cared the most, the thing that was his sole reason for existence. The power to govern and control life. But the demon's purpose was to consume life not to control it, so every attempt that Milosevic did to expand his desire to control life ended with that life being consumed by the demon. Milosevic wasn't pleased with it, since demon's hunger left no life for him to govern. At the end it consumed everything,from Slovenia,Croatia,Bosnia and with a full belly it went back to its lair in Kosovo and as it went underground, it dragged Milosevic with it.

    Poetic writings are here just to make the text more interesting, since for the most part history is boring but the point is there. There cannot be reconciliation between Albanians and Serbs and every attempt to normalize the relationships between two nations is a futile waste of energy. Kosovo isn't the Croatia or Bosnia no matter how similar they might look to the outside world. Simply forget about it.

    My stance on Kosovo today is that Serbia has to recognize it as an independent state together with the three municipalities on the border region. Recognize it and than build a physical barrier around it. Yes, the great Serbian wall. Building the wall physically will be peace of cake compared to building the wall psychologically and emotionally. Wall is the ultimate form of separation, and the ultimate separation between Serbs and Albanians exists. And the US,Germany,EU and NATO should support this effort if it ever gains foothold in the Serbian policy. The hatred is total and absolute and these two nations should not be allowed to come in contact with each other ever again, since every contact is assured mutual destruction of both nations. Serbs need to understand this, since we are the only ones whom could end the suffering. We released it and we have to find the strength to close the gate, otherwise the beast will come out again to hunt and to devour all life. We owe this to ourselves and to the others.

    This introduction looks like overblown, egoistic Serbian bollocks written in a profane way, sounds more like a script for B production Hollywood movie or hack and slash RPG game with undefined forces, magic and the ancient evil that corrupts souls of the noble heroes whom fight it.

    But don't get fooled by it, since that is the essence of it, it is irrational and cannot be treated in a rational way. So the only way to explain it, to define it is by using irrational methods.

  8. #8
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Nice one,Versus. My solution would a be a lil' different(and a lot cheaper),but yours might work just as well,for a while.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Cheaper Mihais? Like to share it with us?

    "Want something cheap, fast, and to work proper? Pick two!"
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  10. #10
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    There is no cheap and fast solution. Do you know what the military option means, in this context,Mihais?
    History part is almost completed.Stay tuned.
    Last edited by Versus; 24 Aug 11, at 13:50.

  11. #11
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    History of the conflict


    I will deal now with the historical context, in the attempt to describe how movements lead to ideas and ideas created efforts and efforts created real actions that lead to real events.


    The mystic Serbia.

    The rise of the Ottoman Empire was the event that shaped the Balkan peninsula more than anything else. It brought with it new rules and new religion. Advanced feudal rule and Islam. At its height, it was far more advanced than most of the European economies, with vast armies and equally vast resource base.

    The infamous Kosovo battle, that befell in 1389 was the last in the series of confrontations with the advancing Ottoman's. When it ended, Serbian feuds and thus Serbs fell under the Ottoman domination. Kosovo battle is the pivot point since it represents the fall of Serbian state and marks the begging of 500 years of slavery, humiliation,exile,death and destruction. Compared to the similar cases trough out the world's history, Kosovo battle for the Serbs is what the Alamo is to the Texas. The last stand.

    The memory of those times was passed on trough generations, in the form of poems that at the end became epic and formed the basis of national identity. The only comfort that Serbs had was the Church, Serbian Orthodox Church and it became the new focus point in those times. Most of the exiles were settled in the border regions of Austria-Hungarian empire, ruled by the Hapsburg monarchy. They were tasked to defend the Empire borders in return for the right to own land. The Hapsburg monarchy was Catholic and it looked down at the Orthodox exiles, giving them the worst possible land, mostly rocky hills and swamps. There the exiles became brutal and fierce fighters, battle harden by the centuries of constant fighting with the Ottoman Empire. While the Vatican wasn't pleased to have them, it was forced to tolerate them since it was better for them to die than their flock, the Croats. For their services the Austria-Hungarian Empire gave them the right to own the land, but since in essence that land was the Croatian land it set the stage for ethnic and religious tensions that will explode in the World War 2 and later on during the civil war, when Croatia declared independence. Not all Serbs fled to exile, many of them stayed in Serbia, for the most part living in the wilderness, far away from the human settlements. For the ones whom stayed in the cities, had to submit to the Ottoman rule by being converted into Islam or if they were wealthy enough trough bribery of their new masters.

    This way of life, divided the Serbs into three major groups, with three completely different sensibilities. The exiles lost much of their humanity and culture, became rigid and uncivilized but with very nasty temper, impulsive and violent. The ones whom stayed in Serbia and lived in the wilderness, became fearful and submissive. The third group that was in the cities and wasn't converted into Islam, became prone to frauds and lies as a mean of survival, a symptom often called the slavery mimic. The slavery mimic is the most devastating characteristic in Serbian mentality, since upholds the lifestyle where lie, trickery,betrayal, backstabbing and sacking are positive attributes and the values such as being honest, sincere and caring are considered to be negative attributes. All three groups became heavily addicted to gambling, tobacco and alcohol. The national identity that was preserved in the form of epic poems, combined with the isolation from civilized life, made the another great impact on Serbian mentality. And that is the specific notion of time or the understanding of time. For the exiles in the rocky God forsaken wilderness of Croatia. time ceased to exist. That is the natural side effect of natural habitat since rocks, for the most part, stay rocks for the very long time. That gave the sense of stillness or freeze frame. Serbs in Serbia whom lived in the wilderness, became completely attuned to the natural cycles and became cyclical in their thinking. They became aware that the time is passing by but that it runs in circles or cycles, so in their thinking the past, present and the future are bound to repeat forever. The Serbs in the cities were the most progressive ones and became trend and style lovers. Their motto was everything is acceptable as long as it is current trend. For them only now exist, while the past and the future is totally irrelevant. In other words, they live for the moment.
    This time paradoxes gave the third most devastating characteristic in the Serbian mentality. Something that Ottomans called the inat. Inat in essence means, opposing just to oppose,where the reason for opposing is secondary and the act of opposing is the purpose, no matter what the consequences are.

    So in essence, you have a nation that is dispersed on a large geographical area, carries its history and therefore identity in a epic form and has no sense of time. That is how Serbs became attached to the notion of land (territory), formed the myth (based on the epic songs) and with no sense of time. Since the time either stands still, runs in cycles or is an forever now, they created the ability to control the time. Past, present and future are one. Sound familiar, space and time are one? Yep, singularity and singularity exist in the places where only one force exist and only one law is applied. The force and law of gravity.
    The black hole.

    This pseudo scientific explanation can be shortly described in a psychological-historical context as well. At the time of its heights the Serbia was the most developed “country” in the Balkans. That relates to the star that is the red giant. That the sudden collapse came with the Ottoman invasion (supernova) and all that is left of that star is the memory of greatness (gravity) that exists in a timeless plane (star's core or the massive black hole). So the point is, that from the moment of collapse, Serbs are trying to remake their state and not to build new. To return, to go back, not to go forward and build new state, but to rebuild the old one. That is the Serbian plan. Known among others as-the Great Serbia. And the way how that should be done is trough uniting or gathering. But without notion of time and changes that time brings, this understanding of history and our place in time and space, or reality will led us in the only one direction-constant and violent confrontations with the world. This direction or vector, that always points backward, to the glorious past which is the past, the present and the future,will be the main driver for the Serbian policy in the centuries under the Ottoman and Austria-Hungarian Empire.

    That wish became the belief and it fused with the church dogma, so religious element, the will of the God, gave the Gods right or just right to do everything in order to fulfill that wish. So with the God on our side, epic identity and in the timeless plane, Serbs rebel against Ottoman Empire in 1804.

    The First Serbian Uprising.
    Last edited by Versus; 25 Aug 11, at 08:39.

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    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    Modern Serbia

    The first Serbian Uprising, was the key event. For the first time, national feelings, brewing in the minds of the Serbs reached the critical point and allowed them to revolt. The epic understanding of the identity and with the God on our side, the rebels managed to free much of the land controlled by the Ottomans. But they lacked the strength to hold the land. At that point, the leader of the rebellion,Djordje Petrovic also know as Karadojorde Petrovic, or in English Black George, asked the aid from the Russian Empire. That is the key, the bounding Serbia to Russia. Russians sent volunteers and cavalry regiments whom fought together with the rebels but were forced to pull back as the Napoleon attacked Russia. Left without reinforcements, Serbian rebels fought to the last but were soon overwhelmed by the advancing Ottoman army. The punishment was devastating and the Ottomans were poised to wipe out Serbs from the face of the earth. Black George fled to Austria-Hungarian Empire.
    When he wanted to return to Serbia and raise another uprising, one of his followers, Milos Obrenovic, whom was from the urban family of rich traders, meaning the pillar of slavery mimic, calculated that another armed rebellion will destroy all Serbs. So he forged the plan and the plan was simple. His men assassinated Black George, beheaded him and brought his head to the Ottomans as a sign that they are willing to cooperate. Slowly, by diplomatic means, Milos Obrenovic was able to get first the Serbian autonomy from the Ottomans and later on independence trough second Serbian Uprising.
    After the Second Serbian Uprising, Serbs lead four more wars in a row. The first and second war against Ottomans and two Balkan wars, first and second. During these wars Serbia tried to gain much of the land that was formally under the Serbian medieval feuds,aka to rebuild itself with a special emphasis on Kosovo, which Serbs at the time, called the Old Serbia. Both leaders of uprisings, Karadojorde and Obrenovic, formed the two royal dynasties from which all leaders of modern Serbia emerged.
    This period, from the first uprising to the first world war is crucial time period in which Serbia tried to rebuild its statehood. The way how that statehood should be rebuilt and maintained was summarized in a single document, called “the Draft”, written by first interior minister Ilija Garasanin. That document is the single most important document for modern Serbian history and it is the main cause for Serbian demise. That devastating document that many take as the ultimate proof of Serbian expansionist foreign policy and the foundation for all the wars that Serbia lead in the attempt to create Great Serbia which than lead to the suffering of others, was for many years the top secret document. But although Serbia adopted that plan and put it into action, that document holds a much darker truth and meaning. That dark truth and meaning reflects itself in the fact that,that program wasn't made by the Serbs, it wasn't written by the Serbs nor conceived by them.

    That program is the Polish program for national liberation.
    Last edited by Versus; 25 Aug 11, at 18:14.

  13. #13
    Senior Contributor Versus's Avatar
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    The Draft.

    This document originates from 1844 and it got classified as top secret right away. In this document basic principles of Serbian foreign policy were laid. It states, that the direction of Serbian foreign policy must be in the direction of embracing and uniting the Serbs and the lands they live on, in Austrian-Hungarian and Ottoman Empire. The document defines the initial state of Serbia as small and weak and that it has to grow and become stronger. It also recognizes the neighboring superpowers, Austrian-Hungarian, Ottoman and Russian Empire, focusing on the Ottoman Empire as its biggest threat and adversary and balanced approach between Austrian-Hungarian and Russian Empire. The plan defines also the means for action in Austrian-Hungarian and Ottoman Empire, trough large and complex intelligence, covert operations and formation of spy rings in these Empires. The main task of these agents was to gather information and spread publications that support national feelings and resentment towards ruling Empires.
    What really this document was trying to formulate, was this. The days of Ottoman Empire are numbered. So the gap will be created with them out of the picture. The two remaining Empires, present in the area were Austrian-Hungarian and Russia, which will be poised to gain foothold on that space. So in that period Serbia has to position itself to gain the most of it, including lands,population and resources, without open confrontation with these superpowers.

    However, this program was too advanced for Serbia of that time. Serbia didn't had the resources, the man power or enough educated people to perform such a complex operations. The 500 years of bitter slavery, death and destruction left deep scars in the minds of the people. Most of its population was poor peasants, illiterate and living in primitive conditions with fresh memories of the Ottoman oppression.

    In other words, Serbia was a wreck, and there is no chance in hell that in that state it was able to formulate anything, especially something as complex as intelligence agency with such sophisticated goal. Epic songs are good for creating boosting the national feelings in a straight charge at the enemy but not sufficient to conceive and formulate multicultural revolution on a wider area.

    This plan was imported from Poland, which also undertook an uprising against Russian Empire. The uprising was crushed and the leader of that uprising Prince Adam Jerzy Czartoryski fled to London and from London to Paris. In London he formed the Literary Association of the Friends of Poland, an organization that was to serve as bridge between Poland wish for independence from Russia and Great Britain, trying to gain Great Britain support for the Polish cause. When he went to France, he resided in the Hôtel Lambert. The reason why he went to France was in order to gain France support for the Polish agenda, knowing that the France had experiences with Russia during the Napoleonic times. He formulated idea, that only the joint pan-slavic revolution could ensure the freedom for Poland, since both France and England were unwilling to directly help his idea. He sent František Zach, the man whom delivered the plan to Ilija Garasanin, whom that revisited the text, by simply replacing the key words and placing the Serbs instead of all Slavs. The Draft is 90% Polish plan with 10% of Serbian national feeling attached to it. Considering the general feeling of that time, the 19th century national awakening it was more than anything a modern document.

    Zach's career in the Serbian military was starlight. He was the man whom formed the first Serbian military academy and the artillery school and was appointed as an adviser to the Serbian Prince Mihailo Obrenovic, the son of Milos Obrenovic. Mihailo Obrenovic promoted the Zach to the rank of general. He participated in the wars of 1876 that will push the Ottomans form the Balkan peninsula where he was wounded and lost a leg. He received the highest decorations and at the old age, returned to the place where he grew, the city of Brno, in Czech republic where he died.

    Yes, a modern document, written by a Ilija Garasanin, a son of a wealthy business man that also served as member of National Council of Serbia a funky semi secret organization that was supposed to mimic the free masons but with the national agenda. Totally unaware, with his head in the clouds he got caught by the moment, Garasanin took the document from Zach and got carried away by the nationalistic dreams and with a help of good glass of expensive vine, and with just a few strokes of pen, set a course for Serbia for the 20th and 21st century.

    On that road, lead by the idealistic and romantic ideas Serbs will lose every battle they fought, suffer horrible human losses and ultimately be accused on charges for ethnic cleansing and war crimes, rejected and despised by the entire world.
    Last edited by Versus; 26 Aug 11, at 07:03.

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    What puzzles me is that at one point Kosovo must have been predominantly occupied by ethnic Serbs... Where did they go?

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    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    What puzzles me is that at one point Kosovo must have been predominantly occupied by ethnic Serbs... Where did they go?
    AFAIK, Albanians bought properties from the domicile Serb population who then settled in Serbia - usually Belgrade.

    This happened in this order

    Serbian village, the villagers need someone to take care of the cows, sheep or to work the land...

    Albanian guy from the next village comes in works for the villagers or for the ZIK (Zemjodelsko Industriski Kombinat - Agri-Industrial Combine). Later this guy with his immediate family (usually ~20 people) buys a land/property from a local Serb who needs money for whatever reason (wedding, scholarship, funeral, or just moving to a new job in the city) usually paying way much then the market price.

    Next thing you know the other Serbs who also need money sell property to this guy's family or friends. Then the prices of the properties go down as the newcomers start practicing their way of life and there is more property for sale then buyers.

    Afterwards, the Albanians build a mosque and to live in that village is impossible.

    Same happened in Macedonia. IDK if it is possible to find data online, but in the late 70s village of Arachinovo had 1 Albanian inhabitant. Today it has 0 Macedonians.

    Another trivia, we have same number of mosques ad churches, but we have 33% Muslims compared to 60% Christians here
    Last edited by Doktor; 26 Aug 11, at 07:17.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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