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  • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
    I'm not running for a public office,so I have no need for PC.Besides,I just hate the invented name they took recently.
    Go to Rome I think they will feel your pain ;)
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
      Versus,only partially related to Kosovo(all Serb politics are somewhat related to Kosovo),what's your view on Operation Sablja and those involved in it?
      I don't know much about that, I was in the U.S. from 2002 to 2004,dealing mostly with 9/11,terrorism,Iraq,US domestic policy and some defense issues,as well as trying to be a good husband, so I didn't paid much attention to the Serbian internal problems.But I expected the Djindjic assassination due to the true nature of October "revolution" and how all that story with Milosevic ended.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by cyppok View Post
        Versus I think you are wrong on both demographics and the snapback.
        The problem with getting what you want is being able to live with it and sustain it. I doubt "Greater Albania" can effectively feed its economic growth. Demographics change fairly quickly, marginally but quickly. Kosovo once delimited will experience a shortage of foreign inflows (aid or investment) simply due to no discernible growth. Populations need something to do before infighting sets in.

        My guess is Kosovo gets divided but if it does not the political infighting sets in due to the stalemate imposition on the border through UN intervention. You saw it in Serbia and it will happen in Kosovo as well.

        If there was mutual trade with descent volumes without extreme trade barriers Serbs and Albanians would come together far more quickly than with UN or other political/military interventions. The reality is most of balkan trade is sequestered and probably goes either through a third party where value is added to it or goes out of the region. Croatia has the luck of being able to have a lot of tourism but once they get into EU the price hike will slowly taper it off.

        P.S. I think you should be happy Serbia doesn't enter the Eu, less damage to the organic economy long term and less shocks if the Eu unravels.
        Well, you might be right, since no one calculated the peak oil into their projection and plans. But never the less, Serbia's population is old and aging rapidly, while Kosovo is getting younger.

        I am not sure what you are trying to say with the trade part

        Comment


        • The best example of demographics not being primary is the Anglo-Saxons vs. native Brittons.
          Brittons had higher fertility and birth rates according to excavations. However, Anglo-Saxons
          had better land and more food, their disease rates were lower so more children, and adults
          survived to procreate. [disease rates are usually higher for non-natives due to not being acclamated
          to a region and physiologically not as adapted]

          Trade in my view would put Serbs and Albanians into a mentality of trying to gain the trust of their opposite
          since they were their customer through cross-border trading relationship. This is not a utopia but would be a fact
          if trade was regular and without beuracratic barriers (which I am sure exist). The free trade agrements on paper
          are worthless if the actual trade cannot or will not be conducted due to various risks.

          Fertility rate; total (births per woman) in Russia
          Statsaholic: Russian Fertility Rate Increased By 4.7% In 2009
          There was a projection of it hitting 1.0 around the year 2000 at some point. But projections are generally wrong.
          As the saying goes "what will be, will be". Certain regions are positive demographic wise (even if you do not count North Caucasian republics), I think some central Siberian oblasts[Tomsk and a few others] or ones right after the Ural Mountains don't remember but you can look it up in Rosstat(gov'ts tend to lie and make numbers nicer though) but still.
          Last edited by cyppok; 18 Sep 11,, 12:16.
          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

          Comment


          • Cyppok they don't want the trust, they want the territory. They don't want the trade they want the territory. I really don't know how to put it to be more clear. This situation is permanent hostility and it can be resolved only with total annihilation of one nation or another. If you want to prevent that, simply isolate them forever. There cannot be trade, trust, or friendship between Albanians and Serbs since hate is pure and absolute. Now, the process of turning Serbs into mindless consumers and trend lovers is going well with this liberal stupidization and globalism aka the EU story, will not stop the conflict, conflict will come, but it will only assure the Serbian defeat. The only rational solution is sealing off the borders with Kosovo with a great wall, minefields and massive military presence that will serve as the force deterrent. And by sealing off I mean willingly give them the territories in Serbia where they are the majority and seal them off with the wall.
            Last edited by Versus; 18 Sep 11,, 13:51.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Versus View Post
              Cyppok they don't want the trust, they want the territory. They don't want the trade they want the territory. I really don't know how to put it to be more clear. This situation is permanent hostility and it can be resolved only with total annihilation of one nation or another. If you want to prevent that, simply isolate them forever. There cannot be trade, trust, or friendship between Albanians and Serbs since hate is pure and absolute. Now, the process of turning Serbs into mindless consumers and trend lovers is going well with this liberal stupidization and globalism aka the EU story, will not stop the conflict, conflict will come, but it will only assure the Serbian defeat. The only rational solution is sealing off the borders with Kosovo with a great wall, minefields and massive military presence that will serve as the force deterrent. And by sealing off I mean willingly give them the territories in Serbia where they are the majority and seal them off with the wall.
              Oh I completely understand that. I meant post split of territory. The problem with having content borders that are with low dispute and ethnically homogeneous (more or less) is that you have to deal with your own problems afterward... and that is what I am talking about.

              I am talking about infighting. Economic struggle at that point is an absolute since "subsidies" from an EU that is broke won't be forthcoming. You are looking at it as in NOW, and future of land, but a land means nothing... what matters is the people AND HOW those people live together and work together and learn together and progress together.

              Hate is Absolute only until you have a choice... once you have no choice and you have to deal with a person it melts away.

              P.S. the sealing off part I actually think is OK. You are a bit pessimistic on the whole thing.
              Perhaps a population exchange? Presevo valley for Mitrovitsa/NorthKosovo the populations are comparable...
              Albanians are people too, I think. Ethnic homogeneity isn't all its cracked up to be trust me.

              I don't think you will loose. Serbia is the least subsidy oriented country in the Balkans in my view, self-sufficiency drives success. Artificial success only increases the amount of collapse a society must experience to get to equilibrium. Yes, this seems rather platonic but it is what it is.
              Last edited by cyppok; 18 Sep 11,, 14:30.
              Originally from Sochi, Russia.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                Oh I completely understand that. I meant post split of territory. The problem with having content borders that are with low dispute and ethnically homogeneous (more or less) is that you have to deal with your own problems afterward... and that is what I am talking about.

                I am talking about infighting. Economic struggle at that point is an absolute since "subsidies" from an EU that is broke won't be forthcoming. You are looking at it as in NOW, and future of land, but a land means nothing... what matters is the people AND HOW those people live together and work together and learn together and progress together.

                Hate is Absolute only until you have a choice... once you have no choice and you have to deal with a person it melts away.
                You can't split the Kosovo since Albanians want it 100%, just as well they want the 1/4 of Serbia for themselves. The only "reasonable" solution would be population swap, Albanians form the Southern Serbia with the Serbs from northern Kosovo. But Albanians will not agree to that since they want northern Kosovo and they want 1/4 of Serbia.
                I don't hate Albanians, but I am aware that they hate me and every Serb. We can't work together,learn together and progress together. Because Albanians don't want it, they want to work with Albanians,learn with Albanians and progress as Albanians. All this has happened because they don't want to be integrated into Serbia. Tito gave them all freedoms they want, it gave them autonomy, university,right to work, right to educate themselves in Albanian. And their response was? Kill all Serbs.
                I mean, how did Russia integrated Chechnya?
                Attached Files
                Last edited by Versus; 18 Sep 11,, 14:26.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                  Oh I completely understand that. I meant post split of territory. The problem with having content borders that are with low dispute and ethnically homogeneous (more or less) is that you have to deal with your own problems afterward... and that is what I am talking about.

                  I am talking about infighting. Economic struggle at that point is an absolute since "subsidies" from an EU that is broke won't be forthcoming. You are looking at it as in NOW, and future of land, but a land means nothing... what matters is the people AND HOW those people live together and work together and learn together and progress together.

                  Hate is Absolute only until you have a choice... once you have no choice and you have to deal with a person it melts away.

                  P.S. the sealing off part I actually think is OK. You are a bit pessimistic on the whole thing.
                  Perhaps a population exchange? Presevo valley for Mitrovitsa/NorthKosovo the populations are comparable...
                  Albanians are people too, I think. Ethnic homogeneity isn't all its cracked up to be trust me.

                  I don't think you will loose. Serbia is the least subsidy oriented country in the Balkans in my view, self-sufficiency drives success. Artificial success only increases the amount of collapse a society must experience to get to equilibrium. Yes, this seems rather platonic but it is what it is.
                  People whom think like me are 0.0003% of the Serbian population. I've counted only 7 ideas about the wall, mine included. The number of those whom ridicule it was tremendous. Serbs are divided into two groups now, the ones whom would like to see this thing go away, meaning that we need to recognize Kosovo and normalize the relationships with Albanians and the other group that wants to keep the things as they are, waiting for some sort of global shift that will allow military action. The first group of Serbs considers themselves liberal progressive and internationalist they are the trendy Serbs and the second group is the nationalist and consider themselves traditional and want to take Kosovo back from Albanians. So ones are waiting for the EU train and the others pray that the asteroid will smack US and Germany so that they can't save the Albanians from Serbs revenge.
                  They both are ignorant and ignore the reality and that is that for over 100 years they were not able to integrate Kosovo no matter what they tried. At the begging of 20th century we were allowed to cleans the Albanian population, we didn't do it (only partly). During the socialist rule we first tried to suppress them it didn't worked,that we tried to integrate them it didn't worked either. At the end they won and they are immensely proud at what they did.
                  Serbs Cyppok, don't have the slightest idea whom they are let a lone what they want.

                  Comment


                  • Hate is normal we all hate someone or something. I am certain that most Albanians hate Serbs and vice versa similar to most Chechens hating Russians. Thus far Russia did not integrate the latter it simply force majored the reconciliation.

                    Stalin integrated Chechnya by deporting the population to a degree but they were allowed to return.

                    Certain clans(very few) in Chechnya are very pro Russia up to the point of fighting in the Chechen war against their own kin, look up 'zapad' unit. The commander even spoke against amnesty... The reality is there are periodic killings back and forth between the ethnicities based simply on ethnicity.
                    Generally there are reprisals against Chechens which are quiet here and there and a lot of them leave Chechenya to go to various regions due to hardship and stability in the province. I do not know much detail to be honest.

                    I am also certain once foreign pressure abates Serbia will avenge itself that is simply a fact of life. That is why I mention the snapback effect the built up nostalgia and anger will go somewhere and the victor of today if it was an artificial win becomes the looser of tomorrow. Malaise after the lull in conflict has to happen first because nothing calms people down other than dealing with their own s**t.

                    Winning = nobody left to oppose you, or acceptance of post facto reality. This is not the case, yet.

                    Russia almost integrated Chechnya under Yermolov whom was insanely ruthless in the region but the policy changed. The situation is not similar to Albania because there are a lot of ethnicities which surround Chechnya and are somewhat in competition. Ergo Alans-Ossetians, Dargins, Avars etc...

                    Chechnya is still not integrated but you have to look at it to a degree from the perspective of Caucasian War. The whole region was united against Russia now it is split with ethnicities in republics where they compete against each other. So 150~years after there is some integration in some republics. The reality is strategically Russia cannot afford to leave the region and most ethnicities realize this.
                    Chechnya got split into Chechnya and Ingushetia but both groups are basically the same people so they are more tolerant to each other.
                    I used to think they would carve it down further into North and South but that would give it stability at this point they simply have a clan war between Kadyrov/Yamadayev which the latter seems to have lost. But the integration still isn't happening. There is outward migration due to hardship in region and my guess is those people that leave will eventually integrate.
                    http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/6006-13.cfm
                    (tribes taips structures if your interested) My guess is Albanians have something similar but slightly different worldview.
                    I have no idea what the strategy for Chechnya is to be honest it seems they backed two or three clans and set them against one another, no clue what happens after you get winners which is now more or less.
                    http://www.eng.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/13346/
                    Basically there is a border to a large degree...
                    Last edited by cyppok; 19 Sep 11,, 04:46.
                    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by cyppok View Post
                      Hate is normal we all hate someone or something. I am certain that most Albanians hate Serbs and vice versa similar to most Chechens hating Russians. Thus far Russia did not integrate the latter it simply force majored the reconciliation.

                      Stalin integrated Chechnya by deporting the population to a degree but they were allowed to return.

                      Certain clans(very few) in Chechnya are very pro Russia up to the point of fighting in the Chechen war against their own kin, look up 'zapad' unit. The commander even spoke against amnesty... The reality is there are periodic killings back and forth between the ethnicities based simply on ethnicity.
                      Generally there are reprisals against Chechens which are quiet here and there and a lot of them leave Chechenya to go to various regions due to hardship and stability in the province. I do not know much detail to be honest.

                      I am also certain once foreign pressure abates Serbia will avenge itself that is simply a fact of life. That is why I mention the snapback effect the built up nostalgia and anger will go somewhere and the victor of today if it was an artificial win becomes the looser of tomorrow. Malaise after the lull in conflict has to happen first because nothing calms people down other than dealing with their own s**t.

                      Winning = nobody left to oppose you, or acceptance of post facto reality. This is not the case, yet.

                      Russia almost integrated Chechnya under Yermolov whom was insanely ruthless in the region but the policy changed. The situation is not similar to Albania because there are a lot of ethnicities which surround Chechnya and are somewhat in competition. Ergo Alans-Ossetians, Dargins, Avars etc...

                      Chechnya is still not integrated but you have to look at it to a degree from the perspective of Caucasian War. The whole region was united against Russia now it is split with ethnicities in republics where they compete against each other. So 150~years after there is some integration in some republics. The reality is strategically Russia cannot afford to leave the region and most ethnicities realize this.
                      Chechnya got split into Chechnya and Ingushetia but both groups are basically the same people so they are more tolerant to each other.
                      I used to think they would carve it down further into North and South but that would give it stability at this point they simply have a clan war between Kadyrov/Yamadayev which the latter seems to have lost. But the integration still isn't happening. There is outward migration due to hardship in region and my guess is those people that leave will eventually integrate.
                      Russia and Chechnya, Chechen Clans
                      (tribes taips structures if your interested) My guess is Albanians have something similar but slightly different worldview.
                      I have no idea what the strategy for Chechnya is to be honest it seems they backed two or three clans and set them against one another, no clue what happens after you get winners which is now more or less.
                      Caucasian Knot | Shevchenko invited Medvedev to reduce the number of checkpoints in the North Caucasus
                      Basically there is a border to a large degree...
                      After the most recent events, I am all for the wall and call it a day. Problem is that the Muslims in Sanjak are rising so in two year time we will have our own Afghanistan/Chechnya Sanjak mix of snuff videos.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Versus View Post
                        The current status of our armed forces is that they are totally combat ineffective, for the defense role. Speaking from the military stand point of view, we were not destroyed by the NATO bombing yet we were destroyed afterward by reforms that are engineered to reduce our defensive capabilities. The plan was to construct professional armed forces, armed with the fancy new weapons and uniforms that look good on the billboards and look call of duty-ish but their real combat value is close to 0. In other words they are not the service, they are the brand, the fashion TV. They are trained to assist in UN/NATO missions where they will be integrated into a large force and function as such. But for our own defense we have nothing. Our defense is a piece of paper signed with NATO where they guarantee that that everything will be swell and dandy.
                        Our military is also limited by the peace accord at the end of 1999, that limits our force projection. In other words we are limited with the quantity and types of weapons we can have. We have a show piece air force with no decent airframes that can do the job, our tank force is puny and consists mostly out of upgraded T-72's which are hard to maintain and operate, since we don't produce them on our own. We destroyed all our T-55's the only MBT that we were able to produce from ground up, our APC's are obsolete, IFV's too. Artillery is also reduced since we are limited with the number of heavy weapons we can have.
                        But we are allowed to make weapons but only for sale, we are not allowed to use it in our armed forces.
                        This has resulted in the Mattel type of weapons, which are supposed to mimic the US weapons (like mini cruise missile called ALAS, the APC Lazar , and the most idiotic combat robot “Milica” and the whole range of 5.56 mm weapons). These projects cost a lots of money and offer very little effectiveness. Our professional army is 35.000 men with ability to have 50.000 with reserve which is the half of our active duty soldiers in 1999. On the other hand the opposing force is 10.000 active duty Kosovo Albanian protection force with the 9000 police officers and with 400.000 reserve. And with border with Albania open, they will have the access to heavy weapons and armor, just like they had in 1999.
                        So I think that we are a joke, even army of ants form near by woods would conquer us in 2 days time.
                        why did you abolish conscription btw...?
                        our guys said all of NATO would come to our defense if the martians attack ,so lets cut spending...
                        what is your excuse ?
                        J'ai en marre.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by 1979 View Post
                          why did you abolish conscription btw...?
                          our guys said all of NATO would come to our defense if the martians attack ,so lets cut spending...
                          what is your excuse ?
                          What happened to Serbian police? CT units in particular.
                          No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                          To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by 1979 View Post
                            why did you abolish conscription btw...?
                            our guys said all of NATO would come to our defense if the martians attack ,so lets cut spending...
                            what is your excuse ?
                            We got defeated by NATO in 1999 and as a part of a peace treaty we are obligated to reduce our military forces to be nothing more than a billboard army. It is a part of "reforms". They removed all officers that have combat experience and replaced them with the officers that are trained in the US and France. If things continue to fall a part as they are falling apart now, they will have the chance to show what they learned but not in Afganistan, but in our own country in the Muslim populated area of Sanjak. It will be Chechnya/Afghanistan mix, since the scenery and the players are more than equal.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                              What happened to Serbian police? CT units in particular.
                              They are super fancy units, hopefully they are more able but again, they are the police not the army and if this situation in Sanjak escalates, they will be insufficient no matter how well trained and equipped they are. Unless CIA wants to help us with couple of MQ-9 Reapers, as a sign of good will.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Versus View Post
                                They are super fancy units, hopefully they are more able but again, they are the police not the army and if this situation in Sanjak escalates, they will be insufficient no matter how well trained and equipped they are. Unless CIA wants to help us with couple of MQ-9 Reapers, as a sign of good will.
                                Fancy units? I remember they were good and well trained. :wors:

                                If you have a force without armor opposed to you, moreover if that force operates in populated ares, imho, the police is a better choice.

                                Regarding MQ09s, I think you should ask Mossad for their equivalent ;)
                                No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                                To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                                Comment

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