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  • The problem here is we failed to regroup in a civil manner after Yugoslavia's purpose seized - to be a buffer zone and to squeeze from both sides of the curtain.

    With all the wars here a lot of money went into few pockets leaving business and а lot of people without cash.

    When you are out of cash and jobless, it's never your fault, so you need bad guys and nationalism flourishes (look at EU at the moment).

    Albanians and Serbs are totally different story, give $2mn each and they'll still hate each other, coz "the other side got more" ;)

    Back to the trade, you are right the level of trade between Balkan countries is lower (my guesstimate) then before the '90's.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

    Comment


    • Personaly I come more and more to the view (having done the research and read some of the reports) that both sides did awful stuff in Bosnia, it certainly wasn't a 'clean' war (if there is one). Kosovo though we probably took the wrong side. From what I have read it would suggest that the main aggressors were the Albanians. We essentialy supported a majority against a minority when the purpose of the majority was to 'cleanse' the minority. Certainly the Serb occupied areas of Kosovo should have become part of Serbia before, now though it is too late.

      The next question in the long term for the Balkans is shall we see a Greater Albania?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by snapper View Post
        The next question in the long term for the Balkans is shall we see a Greater Albania?
        If EU survives we will. Moreover without a bullet being shot.
        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

        Comment


        • What? What? Can you please explain what this is to do with the EU? Call me stupid but Balkans is NATO problem - or was when they were murdering each. I know Slovenia is in the EU and Croatia and later Serbia are likely to join but what is this to do with Kosovo or a Greater Albania?

          Comment


          • Well, if the EU still around in 20 years or so the Balkans will be in, wiht Albanians sans frontiers you do the math
            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by cyppok View Post
              I think once the Eu collpses you will be on the upswing. The trade markets will open up and the devastated balkan Eu members whos' markets got steamrolled by them joining will be easier to get into.

              Two thoughts I do not understand why if Serbia is so against Albanians living in it why doesn't it simply begin catching and deporting them enmasse? similar to what Russia does with the Chinese? Bring the people to the border and there you go problem solved. Thats what Australia does sort of. Put them on busses and bon voyage? no?

              on a different note...
              I actually think these sorts of artificial enforcements on countries have a snapback effect. Ergo the Eu/Us enforcing stoppage of expelling of population will most likely lead to it in the future under far worse circumstances. The problem is that it does not solve anything and creates a frozen conflict where two ethnicities keep at each other without resolution over and above their threasholds.

              My feeling is that if there was a Balkan trade agrements ergo free trade between all balkan nations these conflicts would melt away but the problem is all these barriers between Eu and non-Eu members which seek "protection" for their industries and production etc... I actually see Turkey as a catalyst to some degree right now, if they can get a few trade agrements between non-Eu members and the trade is competitive to both parties there will be tremendous opportunity. Climate differences and goods differences may make it possible.
              Well we won't be on the upper swing at all. If the current demographic trends continue, in 10 years we will lose our military reserve, aka there will be no more men capable to carry arms or that have passed the basic training or know how to operate with weapon systems and platforms. The current status of our armed forces is that they are totally combat ineffective, for the defense role. Speaking from the military stand point of view, we were not destroyed by the NATO bombing yet we were destroyed afterward by reforms that are engineered to reduce our defensive capabilities. The plan was to construct professional armed forces, armed with the fancy new weapons and uniforms that look good on the billboards and look call of duty-ish but their real combat value is close to 0. In other words they are not the service, they are the brand, the fashion TV. They are trained to assist in UN/NATO missions where they will be integrated into a large force and function as such. But for our own defense we have nothing. Our defense is a piece of paper signed with NATO where they guarantee that that everything will be swell and dandy.
              Our military is also limited by the peace accord at the end of 1999, that limits our force projection. In other words we are limited with the quantity and types of weapons we can have. We have a show piece air force with no decent airframes that can do the job, our tank force is puny and consists mostly out of upgraded T-72's which are hard to maintain and operate, since we don't produce them on our own. We destroyed all our T-55's the only MBT that we were able to produce from ground up, our APC's are obsolete, IFV's too. Artillery is also reduced since we are limited with the number of heavy weapons we can have.
              But we are allowed to make weapons but only for sale, we are not allowed to use it in our armed forces.
              This has resulted in the Mattel type of weapons, which are supposed to mimic the US weapons (like mini cruise missile called ALAS, the APC Lazar , and the most idiotic combat robot “Milica” and the whole range of 5.56 mm weapons). These projects cost a lots of money and offer very little effectiveness. Our professional army is 35.000 men with ability to have 50.000 with reserve which is the half of our active duty soldiers in 1999. On the other hand the opposing force is 10.000 active duty Kosovo Albanian protection force with the 9000 police officers and with 400.000 reserve. And with border with Albania open, they will have the access to heavy weapons and armor, just like they had in 1999.
              So I think that we are a joke, even army of ants form near by woods would conquer us in 2 days time.

              Well we can't deport them, since if you deport one illegal family, the whole population rises in their defense which than translates to Kosovo and since they have 100% support of the EU and the US, we will be punished for ethnic intolerance and violation of human rights. That is why Serbian law doesn't function in the border region, since it would upset the ethnic tensions. We simply do not control that territory even if it is theoretically the part of Serbia. In the mean time, criminal activity is flourishing, incidents mount and Albanians are gaining confidence for their actions.
              All this is backed up by the US, simply cause we are too small for them and Albanian lobby in the US is investing heavily for their cause. So they are bound to win in both scenarios.

              General problem with Albanians is that they cannot be integrated into Serbia. They can't be integrated because they have their own plan, the creation of Great Albania. So how can you integrate someone that openly says I am your enemy and I want to kill you?
              They were never against Milosevic, they were always against Serbia and it really doesn't matter whom is in power or which regime is. They simply have their own agenda that they are pushing and that's it.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                What? What? Can you please explain what this is to do with the EU? Call me stupid but Balkans is NATO problem - or was when they were murdering each. I know Slovenia is in the EU and Croatia and later Serbia are likely to join but what is this to do with Kosovo or a Greater Albania?
                I would say in the next 30 years. Most likely around 2025-2030. You have to calculate the population growth and the time it takes them to be able to carry arms, which is 15-20 years. So for the those that are born in Kosovo in 2000 they will be combat effective in 2015 or 2020. So give or take around 2020-2025ish, you can expect resurrection of conflict. Serbia won't be admitted to EU, that is just an empty talk, Croatia will be the last one.

                Comment


                • Canadian General Lewis MacKenzie and Canadian Ambassador to Yugoslavia James Bisset speaking on Kosovo UDI and some other things.
                  Kosovo Forum in Montreal - Lewis MacKenzie - YouTube
                  Kosovo Forum in Montreal - James Bissett 01 - YouTube
                  Kosovo Forum in Montreal - James Bissett 02 - YouTube

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                    Well, if the EU still around in 20 years or so the Balkans will be in, wiht Albanians sans frontiers you do the math
                    You can be in the EU and not in Schengen.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                      You can be in the EU and not in Schengen.
                      Tell that to the Gypsies.
                      Those who know don't speak
                      He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                      Comment


                      • Versus,only partially related to Kosovo(all Serb politics are somewhat related to Kosovo),what's your view on Operation Sablja and those involved in it?
                        Those who know don't speak
                        He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                        Comment


                        • Versus I think you are wrong on both demographics and the snapback.
                          The problem with getting what you want is being able to live with it and sustain it. I doubt "Greater Albania" can effectively feed its economic growth. Demographics change fairly quickly, marginally but quickly. Kosovo once delimited will experience a shortage of foreign inflows (aid or investment) simply due to no discernible growth. Populations need something to do before infighting sets in.

                          My guess is Kosovo gets divided but if it does not the political infighting sets in due to the stalemate imposition on the border through UN intervention. You saw it in Serbia and it will happen in Kosovo as well.

                          If there was mutual trade with descent volumes without extreme trade barriers Serbs and Albanians would come together far more quickly than with UN or other political/military interventions. The reality is most of balkan trade is sequestered and probably goes either through a third party where value is added to it or goes out of the region. Croatia has the luck of being able to have a lot of tourism but once they get into EU the price hike will slowly taper it off.

                          P.S. I think you should be happy Serbia doesn't enter the Eu, less damage to the organic economy long term and less shocks if the Eu unravels.
                          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Mihais View Post
                            Tell that to the Gypsies.
                            Mihais, please be politically correct - to the Roma people
                            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by snapper View Post
                              You can be in the EU and not in Schengen.
                              Well in theory yes. But it wont be like that, for some odd reason we will open our border. See, even now I can go to Montenegro with ID only, and there are talks about it with Serbia, so in few meaningless years all the borders will fall EU or not, but EU will be a justification to do it sooner.

                              We should only learn from the Slovenes. I am challenging Shengen resident to buy a flat in Ljubljana and settle there.
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Doktor View Post
                                Mihais, please be politically correct - to the Roma people
                                I'm not running for a public office,so I have no need for PC.Besides,I just hate the invented name they took recently.
                                Those who know don't speak
                                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

                                Comment

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