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Thread: Exploring Pakistan’s Nuclear Thresholds – Analysis

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    You nor anyone else don't need my approval to have conversation over here.
    I was just asking when was the last time Pakistan was victorious. I know there were at least 4 wars they had with India, but don't remember a parade in Islamabad afterwards.
    Victory is directly proportional to the achievement of aims and the objectives. One way to celebrate victory is by holding victory parades on V days etc - the other way may be is to learn from what happened, better the survival response and move on. Israelis have won many wars - I didn't see any victory parades in Tel Aviv.

    Pakistan is a small country. Ours is a survival environment. When we don't allow the Indians to break us up and survive despite their overwhelming power, strength and offensive actions, this is victory for us. We defend ourselves against overwhelming odds, yet we pull up our chin, face the adversities, look the other guy in the eye and tell him F**** Ya.

    This is exactly what we are telling the Taliban. AND THIS WHY THEY WON'T SUCCEED. Over 5000 of our soldiers have died so far and over 35000 civilians are dead. During our independence, Indians killed over 3 million of us, but we still gained our freedom. India defeated us in 1971 with the help of Bengalis living in Bangladesh - in any case it was over 1000 miles away from mainland Pakistan. We learned lessons and now we are a nuclear power, despite US sanctions. Our nuclear program is not a Muslim Bomb or a Taliban Bomb as many may like to project - It is only for ensuring Pakistan's security and freedom and let all others day dream.

    We will never allow any one to take away our freedom. This may seem rhetorical but is a fact ingrained. We will enhance our nuclear capability, but it is India Centric and not against anyone else. We will not hesitate to use it if our freedom is threatened by the Indians who believe that 5000 years ago Pakistani territory belonged to their kings. period.

    Indians always project that they are a peaceful status-quo power and have no hegemonic designs against any of their neighbors. History tell us something different. India is not a status-quo power. It is a regional hegemon. It invaded and captured Junagarh and Manavadar in 1947, invaded and captured Indian Occupied Kashmir in 1947, invaded and captured Hyderabad in 1948, invaded and captured Goa in 1961 which was an area belonging to Portugal, invaded East Pakistan in 1971, invaded and captured Sikkim as late as 1975, invaded and captured some portions of Siachen in 1988, created Sri Lankan terrorist group LTTE and later invaded Sri Lanka in 1988 till the President of Sri Lanka had to openly ask the Indians to leave, invaded Maldives in 1988 and has continually interfered in internal affairs of Nepal and Bhutan and has spread terrorism in all her neighboring states including Pakistan.

    Therefore, our survival is our victory and we don't have victory parades to celebrate our freedom. We make sure that we remain free.

  2. #47
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    I wonder to what extent Pakistan's Nuclear Capability is a threat. America threatened to bomb them into the stone age in 2001 and entered into Pakistan unchallenged. There are rumours that America has also secured Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. I do not see Pakistan or India going to war while the USA is playing the "Great Game" in Central Asia.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...icle647188.ece
    PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, the President of Pakistan, claimed last night that the Bush Administration threatened to bomb his country “into the Stone Age” if it did not co-operate with the US after 9/11, sharply increasing tensions between the US and one of its closest allies in the war on terrorism.
    The President, who will meet Mr Bush in the White House today, said the threat was made by Richard Armitage, then the Deputy Secretary of State, in the days after the terror attacks, and was issued to the Pakistani intelligence director.

    “The intelligence director told me that [Armitage] said, ‘Be repared to be bombed. Be prepared to go back to the Stone Age’,” President Musharraf said. “I think it was a very rude remark.” The claims come at the end of a week in which relations between the US and Pakistan have sharply deteriorated, and days ahead of the publication of President Musharraf’s memoir, In the Line of Fire, which will be serialised in The Times from Monday.
    Last edited by David Crocket; 14 Jul 11, at 09:03.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    It's disturbing that you take this as a possibility.

    I have no doubt that it can ever happen. It is you guys who keep on talking about it and therefore I said what I said.

    No sh!t, Sherlock.

    The trick my dear Watson is not to show that it hurts.

    As opposed to surrendering the nukes to the Taliban?

    Yes, that too.

    With what? I don't think you understand the scenario. The Americans would have decided to secure Pakistan's nukes because the danger of them falling into Taliban, and, therefore, Al Qaeda hands have became intolerable (China's hand would also be forced in this scenario). The primary objective is not securing Pakistan's nukes, that is for public consumption. The primary objective is to deny those nukes to the Taliban. That means whatever the Americans cannot secure, they will destroy. You have already admitted that conventional systems are accurate enough to do just that. And if we add in American nukes to the equation, they assign 3 nukes per target to ensure its destruction. And in case, they don't feel that they've got everyone, then they go after everything else that support the nukes and that means the National Command Authority. Do you want to imagine 6 nukes onto Islamabad? 3 to target the PM and 3 to target the COAS. And by some miracle, enough C3 and nuke and delivery vehicle survives, how the hell you going to hit the CONUS? Pakistan got nothing with that range.

    Such a mission would be successful only if the target is known with certainty. Whereas, the location of some may be known - location of all would certainly not be known. The consequences of such a response would indeed be horrendous, despite any amount of calculations. We have lived in a survival mode for over 60 years and Pakistan's response in my opinion would not always be according to the book.

    Then it follows that the majority of your delivery vehicles have conventional mission priority over nuclear. You are not going to keep 200 missiles and 30 aircrafts idle when the Indian Army is knocking at the front gates, not while you still have a chance to keep them from coming through the front gates.

    NO sir, all are meant to respond nuclear. Like I said above, Pakistan's response in my opinion would not always be according to the book.

    What local logistical vehicles? The Indian Army would be in hostile territory. They have to secure their LOC as well bring up supplies.

    You're still talking limited action and divisional level is not corps level. Unless you're talking the Golden Gate Bridge, such battlefield bridges are too flimsy and too small to support any meaningful deep corps thrust.
    You create a secure and maintainable beach-head of sorts and then pass many armies through it. The logistics of supporting such Corps sized operations are thoroughly worked out. Remember, our LOCs are not very deep. As I understand, the methodology of staff working of such operations is different in South Asia as compared to NATO and US.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinu
    Quote Originally Posted by OoE
    With what? I don't think you understand the scenario. The Americans would have decided to secure Pakistan's nukes because the danger of them falling into Taliban, and, therefore, Al Qaeda hands have became intolerable (China's hand would also be forced in this scenario). The primary objective is not securing Pakistan's nukes, that is for public consumption. The primary objective is to deny those nukes to the Taliban. That means whatever the Americans cannot secure, they will destroy. You have already admitted that conventional systems are accurate enough to do just that. And if we add in American nukes to the equation, they assign 3 nukes per target to ensure its destruction. And in case, they don't feel that they've got everyone, then they go after everything else that support the nukes and that means the National Command Authority. Do you want to imagine 6 nukes onto Islamabad? 3 to target the PM and 3 to target the COAS. And by some miracle, enough C3 and nuke and delivery vehicle survives, how the hell you going to hit the CONUS? Pakistan got nothing with that range.
    Such a mission would be successful only if the target is known with certainty. Whereas, the location of some may be known - location of all would certainly not be known. The consequences of such a response would indeed be horrendous, despite any amount of calculations. We have lived in a survival mode for over 60 years and Pakistan's response in my opinion would not always be according to the book.
    The question was, what can you do about it?

    You cannot prevent the US from declawing you. If somehow you do manage to save a few bombs, you still can't touch the United States -- especially if a fundamentalist government is in power in Pakistan, the US has cut off travel and transport from Pakistan, and so you have no means of sneaking in your response. Like you have repeatedly said, your military is India-centric. You can't do anything to stop China from declawing you, let alone the US.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    The question was, what can you do about it?

    You cannot prevent the US from declawing you. If somehow you do manage to save a few bombs, you still can't touch the United States -- especially if a fundamentalist government is in power in Pakistan, the US has cut off travel and transport from Pakistan, and so you have no means of sneaking in your response. Like you have repeatedly said, your military is India-centric. You can't do anything to stop China from declawing you, let alone the US.
    I don't think that US would have any reason to do this because if someone thinks that there would be a Taliban government in Pakistan lives in a fools paradise. If Aunty had balls she would be an uncle. And Taliban would never ever have this kind of capability. Even if the Indians provide covert support to Taliban from their assets based in Afghanistan, which many news sources quote, such a scenario is not possible.

    It is an Indian wet dream to wish that the US would declaw Pakistan - something which the Indians themselves can not dare to do.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinu View Post
    However Sir, if you don't want me to post here, just say the word and I'll be invisible forever. No offense meant. Thank you indeed.
    Doktor only requested you to create an intro thread in the memebrs introduction section so that the rest of the board can welcome you.

    Post away all you want

  7. #52
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    I think he will have close encounter with the lady bulldog or with the angry bird. Whoever comes first
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinu View Post
    Pakistan is a small country. Ours is a survival environment. When we don't allow the Indians to break us up and survive despite their overwhelming power, strength and offensive actions, this is victory for us. We defend ourselves against overwhelming odds, yet we pull up our chin, face the adversities, look the other guy in the eye and tell him F**** Ya.
    But, but, I thought you were British!!!

    Or not
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinu View Post
    Such a mission would be successful only if the target is known with certainty. Whereas, the location of some may be known - location of all would certainly not be known. The consequences of such a response would indeed be horrendous, despite any amount of calculations. We have lived in a survival mode for over 60 years and Pakistan's response in my opinion would not always be according to the book.
    Use that brain of yours. We have been looking for nukes for over 60 years. We have determined that the Soviets were not lying when they sign the SALT and START Treaties. We determined Chinese nuclear storage ... And you have the Americans forcing the dual key release on your NCA and they have been roaming your country for almost a decade. What do you think?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tinu View Post
    NO sir, all are meant to respond nuclear. Like I said above, Pakistan's response in my opinion would not always be according to the book.
    The manual of mating warhead the SOP of nuclear release is the same no matter what country you're from. It's a minimum of 5 hours to mate a warhead onto a missile or get the bomb onto the plane and that is if you have been training. You have not. So, add in another 2 hours just to sort the confusion out. That's 7 hours before you can nuke an Indian advance and that's 7 hours that the battlefield picture has changed. The enemy is no longer where you expect them to be. So, you have to get another hour to find them and then determine a suitable location for the nuke deployment. And that is assuming you get the NCA release.

    Now, the NCA release is a whole another ball of wax. Islamabad is not going to give you that release is the Pakistani Army is holding and most definitely, you will not get the release if the Pakistani Army is winning. And you will not be able to determine that within 24 hours of combat. It will take time for an Indian Advance to smash into a Pakistani main force and unless the Pakistani soldier is so overrated that he just throw down his gun and run, there will be a fight, a big fight, and that fight will be at least 10 hours, more if the Pakistanis are determined fighting to the last man.

    All told that is 72 hours minimum before the NCA has to make a decision, more like 5 days if the Pakistanis are stubborn but still losing. Never if the Pakistanis can bring their reserves before the Indian Army can bring theirs through that one tiny little bridge that you think can support an entire corps.

    And you mean to tell me that the battlefield commander is not going to use those 30 planes and 200 missiles to smash Indian bridges and rear echelon build up?

  10. #55

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    David Crocket Reply

    Mr. Crocket,

    You owe us an introduction in the new members section of this forum. It's difficult to miss as it's at the top of the homepage. Please do so and tell us a bit about yourself if you don't mind. That will also serve as an excellent opportunity for you to acquaint yourself with our forum guidelines and perhaps read Zraver's Completely Unofficial Guide To Surviving The WAB.

    Secondly, you perpetuate a myth. From WHOM did Musharraf hear such words of "bombing into the stone age"? Armitage?

    No. Musharraf's own Director, ISI instead did so.

    Richard Armitage has refuted this characterization numerous times. He should know. It is easily researched.

    Armitage Denies Making 'Stone Age' Threat-NPR Sept. 22, 2006

    Staying informed and conveying solid information to our members is a helpful way of adding value to this board and our knowledge.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

  11. #56
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    There can be 2 assumptions where-in a war between India & Pakistan is possible. Respected Professionals in here might be able to add more.

    1. Kargil type misadventure by the Pakistani army
    2. A major terrorist attack in India, that has been traced back to Pakistan and it's agencies.

    Now, for Pakistan to require using tactical nukes on IA, would mean that Pakistan has already lost parts of Pakistan and is afraid of losing more. For the IA to achieve that, atleast 3-5 days are needed. The world including US would not sit idle in the meantime.

    With countries like US, UK, Israel etc having sophisticated network of gathering intel and India arming it's Armed Forces to the teeth with modern weapons from the West (Phalcon being one), I seriously doubt any nuclear war would happen. Once Pakistan start assembling nukes with delivery systems it would be picked up and the message relayed across to Indian authorities. Assuming, India has gone to war with Pakistan, India would make sure they have credible intel on the exact co-ordinates of the delivery systems.

    If everything else fails, and the advancing IA is nuked or cities of India are nuked, then by going with the NFU doctrine of India, the retaliation would be massive. I hope that day never arrives.

    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Can you tell me when was the last time there was a vicory parade in Islamabad?
    I beg your pardon for replying to this post.

    The answer - Never. However, official Pakistani history being taught states that all the wars of 1948, 1965, 1971, Kargil - were won by Pakistan.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tinu View Post
    It invaded and captured Junagarh and Manavadar in 1947, invaded and captured Indian Occupied Kashmir in 1947, invaded and captured Hyderabad in 1948, invaded and captured Goa in 1961 which was an area belonging to Portugal, invaded East Pakistan in 1971, invaded and captured Sikkim as late as 1975, invaded and captured some portions of Siachen in 1988, created Sri Lankan terrorist group LTTE and later invaded Sri Lanka in 1988 till the President of Sri Lanka had to openly ask the Indians to leave, invaded Maldives in 1988 and has continually interfered in internal affairs of Nepal and Bhutan and has spread terrorism in all her neighboring states including Pakistan.
    What was that? Fiction or fantasy?

  12. #57
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    @Sharapthai
    A pakistani state will still exist in "some form" after an indian intervention as a refuge for its military and political class; provided they have not exercised their nuclear option.

    BTW, indian decision to retaliate is not based on thresholds.
    Power Respects Power
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  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    But, but, I thought you were British!!!

    Or not
    Sir,
    I never thought anything of you.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinu View Post
    Sir,
    I never thought anything of you.
    Ahh, a touch of humour at last, how very droll

    But seriously, do keep posting. Its fascinating watching the Colonel's response on top of yours.
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  15. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Use that brain of yours. We have been looking for nukes for over 60 years. We have determined that the Soviets were not lying when they sign the SALT and START Treaties. We determined Chinese nuclear storage ... And you have the Americans forcing the dual key release on your NCA and they have been roaming your country for almost a decade. What do you think?

    Sir, this is your biggest problem. You guys are so confident about your abilities and technology and think that you are invincible. And then someone comes and surprises you completely. Some major known examples ……. 1998 Indian nuclear tests, 9/11, post Iraqi invasion environment when the defeated Iraqi bathists, al-qaeda and Iraqi army hit back catching US forces off-guard etc etc. Don’t you think that these Pakistanis would not know the kind of technological capability the US possess and you think they’d not be prepared for it despite the Americans being there in their amidst. That’s why I said some would be know, most would not be known. Sir this is not Soviet era facilities which were not built to evade the current US technological advantages. And sir, they’d be using their brains.

    The manual of mating warhead the SOP of nuclear release is the same no matter what country you're from. It's a minimum of 5 hours to mate a warhead onto a missile or get the bomb onto the plane and that is if you have been training. You have not. So, add in another 2 hours just to sort the confusion out. That's 7 hours before you can nuke an Indian advance and that's 7 hours that the battlefield picture has changed. The enemy is no longer where you expect them to be. So, you have to get another hour to find them and then determine a suitable location for the nuke deployment. And that is assuming you get the NCA release.

    Now, the NCA release is a whole another ball of wax. Islamabad is not going to give you that release is the Pakistani Army is holding and most definitely, you will not get the release if the Pakistani Army is winning. And you will not be able to determine that within 24 hours of combat. It will take time for an Indian Advance to smash into a Pakistani main force and unless the Pakistani soldier is so overrated that he just throw down his gun and run, there will be a fight, a big fight, and that fight will be at least 10 hours, more if the Pakistanis are determined fighting to the last man.

    All told that is 72 hours minimum before the NCA has to make a decision, more like 5 days if the Pakistanis are stubborn but still losing. Never if the Pakistanis can bring their reserves before the Indian Army can bring theirs through that one tiny little bridge that you think can support an entire corps.

    Excellent explanation. I feel that in the run-up to the environment which lead to mobilization of forces, both India and Pakistan would have mated their systems and be ready for a nuclear response, much before their forces would move to forward assembly. Though during the Indian mobilization of 2001 both India and Pakistan accused each other of readying their nuclear forces and though both denied – I for one feel, that the nuclear forces of both countries were on hair-trigger alert status. Your explanation above confirms my assessment.

    And you mean to tell me that the battlefield commander is not going to use those 30 planes and 200 missiles to smash Indian bridges and rear echelon build up?
    Both India and Pakistan use dedicated resources for nuclear strikes which are different than the ones used for conventional operations.

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