Originally posted by Officer of Engineers
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Exploring Pakistan’s Nuclear Thresholds – Analysis
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Last edited by Tinu; 13 Jul 11,, 19:11.
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I agree with you that it can not double its total in two years. But the calculations carried out by different experts say different things. Be that as it may, the actual number of weapons Pakistan has will only be confirmed when Pakistan makes it public. Till then all these calculations are at best - intelligent guesses. I believe this firmly.
Lets agree to disagree on this
I am not going to challenge any body. But I know this that at best these are intelligent guesses.
Again a contentious statement. The boost phase defense, intermediate and terminal defenses need different technologies. For example, Iranian Shahab 3's booster takes about 70-75 seconds between fire and extinguish, and in these 70-75 seconds the launch is to be identified, the missile has to be acquired after it is launched and the interceptor has to be fired to destroy it before the booster motor gets extinguished in 70-75. Not impossible but not easy either. There are counter measures that are being concurrently worked on and this is an ongoing game.
However, if you miss the consequences are horrendous. That is why the logic defies such confidence.
See, Chinese are also working on a ballistic missile which will strike a naval aircraft carrier. Yes it will not be nuclear. In case of Pakistan, I think that they will first build enough for their nuclear strike and then go for conventional ones. This is what I am saying.
May be. That is what you believe. But at the end of the day, it'll be to suit its own strategy rather than basing it on some one else's strategy.
For 70 ton vehicles - may be. In Pakistan - India environment, the strike elements which would cross first would not be 70 ton vehicles and 48+ hours is too long a time. It may be required to cross all the elements of a Corps, but the fighting echelons that cross over the obstacle and secure area across and the build up of remaining offensive forces has to happen within the same night. Indians also practice this and so do the Pakistanis. The bridges are laid by engineers which can take heavy tanks and other heavy vehicles - and all this is done within the same night.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostWe're basing contingencies on these assessments. The confidence in their accuracy is extremely high ... or it may be the Pakistanis have less than we believe. Confidence is extremely low that they have more.
Good enough. You need numbers for such contingencies and obviously you would chose those assessments on which confidence is high.
It's a matter of public record that the US Government has discussed securing Pakistani nukes.
If such mission is undertaken when Taliban have captured Pakistan, good luck to you guys. However, if this mission is undertaken in anticipation that Taliban may take over and Pakistani forces are in control, this would be an act of war and would be crossing of declared Pakistani nuclear threshold. The response in such case would be nuclear strikes against whosoever undertakes such mission.
Then, you're just taking the word of one person over another without examining the evidence. The Nuclear Notebook has referenced their sources. At least take a look at their research materials before deciding who is better than whom.
Agreed, I will do that.
I am not talking about ABM systems. I mean to say that conventional systems are now accurate enough to hit the rockets and planes where they sit without the need of a nuke.
Agreed
Since the Pakistanis do not mate nukes to their delivery systems until need arises, there is an extremely large risk that their delivery vehicles will be destroyed before the nukes could be mated.
Agreed, such a risk does exist. But then this is a strategy which the Indians also follow and so do the Pakistanis. This also is a confidence building measure between India and Pakistan and also provides a good measure of security against any unauthorized launch attempt by elements in India as well as Pakistan or or accidental launch.
At the end of the day, not one of Pakistan's nukes is on a warfooting.
Yes this is strategy which is followed - as explained above.
Lead elements are going nowhere fast if fuel, ammo, water, food, and men are sitting behind that canal waiting for a bridge that won't collapse because the tanks have shaken them to pieces.
Ammo and needed logistics is carried on fighting vehicles followed by local logistical vehicles. As the fighting echelons advance the logistical vehicles replenish food, ammo and water etc.
The Indians have some types of Russian bridges while Pakistani Army Engineers have American bridges. I have witnessed an armoured division (fighting echelons with allied logistical support) crossing an obstacle on such American bridges in one night after the assaulting echelons have captured the area across the obstacle. The bridges were maintained by Pakistan Army Engineers and they withstood such a crossing - shaken to pieces or not - I don't know but these were still operative the next day and the day after.Last edited by Tinu; 13 Jul 11,, 20:59.
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In a nuclear war everyone losesMeddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.
Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.
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Originally posted by bigross86 View PostIn a nuclear war everyone loses
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@Tinu
I am reading closely your conversation with OoE and am thinking the following:
You haven't introduced yourself, but you engaged 2 former staff members (OoE and BR), so I must do the dirty job since zraver is MIA ;)
All your claims are uncited, which is not a good first impression over here.
Piece of advice: In order to survive here and be taken seriously introduce yourself, read the guide for survival (someone link pls), buy the Colonel a pack of Scotch and a DVD collection with last 10 Stanley Cups and last but not least cite your sources whenever possible.
Hope you'll have fun and enjoy your stay over here.No such thing as a good tax - Churchill
To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.
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Originally posted by Doktor View Post@Tinu
I am reading closely your conversation with OoE and am thinking the following:
You haven't introduced yourself, but you engaged 2 former staff members (OoE and BR), so I must do the dirty job since zraver is MIA ;)
All your claims are uncited, which is not a good first impression over here.
Piece of advice: In order to survive here and be taken seriously introduce yourself, read the guide for survival (someone link pls), buy the Colonel a pack of Scotch and a DVD collection with last 10 Stanley Cups and last but not least cite your sources whenever possible.
Hope you'll have fun and enjoy your stay over here.
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Originally posted by Doktor View PostCan you tell me when was the last time there was a vicory parade in Islamabad?
I have had very good intellectual discussion here which I thoroughly enjoyed. I also enjoyed the highly professional and highly educated responses that I got from members here and stand much better educated merely interacting. However Sir, if you don't want me to post here, just say the word and I'll be invisible forever. No offense meant. Thank you indeed.
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If such mission is undertaken when Taliban have captured Pakistan, good luck to you guys.
However, if this mission is undertaken in anticipation that Taliban may take over and Pakistani forces are in control, this would be an act of war
and would be crossing of declared Pakistani nuclear threshold.
The response in such case would be nuclear strikes against whosoever undertakes such mission.
Agreed, such a risk does exist. But then this is a strategy which the Indians also follow and so do the Pakistanis. This also is a confidence building measure between India and Pakistan and also provides a good measure of security against any unauthorized launch attempt by elements in India as well as Pakistan or or accidental launch.
Ammo and needed logistics is carried on fighting vehicles followed by local logistical vehicles. As the fighting echelons advance the logistical vehicles replenish food, ammo and water etc.
The Indians have some types of Russian bridges while Pakistani Army Engineers have American bridges. I have witnessed an armoured division (fighting echelons with allied logistical support) crossing an obstacle on such American bridges in one night after the assaulting echelons have captured the area across the obstacle. The bridges were maintained by Pakistan Army Engineers and they withstood such a crossing - shaken to pieces or not - I don't know but these were still operative the next day and the day after.
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Originally posted by bigross86 View PostColonel, what have you against tanks?! What did we ever do to you?
And plus you guys sh!t wherever you like at times right in the field I'm trying to clear.
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Originally posted by Tinu View PostSir,
I have had very good intellectual discussion here which I thoroughly enjoyed. I also enjoyed the highly professional and highly educated responses that I got from members here and stand much better educated merely interacting. However Sir, if you don't want me to post here, just say the word and I'll be invisible forever. No offense meant. Thank you indeed.
I was just asking when was the last time Pakistan was victorious. I know there were at least 4 wars they had with India, but don't remember a parade in Islamabad afterwards.No such thing as a good tax - Churchill
To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.
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Originally posted by Doktor View PostYou nor anyone else don't need my approval to have conversation over here.
I was just asking when was the last time Pakistan was victorious. I know there were at least 4 wars they had with India, but don't remember a parade in Islamabad afterwards.
Pakistan is a small country. Ours is a survival environment. When we don't allow the Indians to break us up and survive despite their overwhelming power, strength and offensive actions, this is victory for us. We defend ourselves against overwhelming odds, yet we pull up our chin, face the adversities, look the other guy in the eye and tell him F**** Ya.
This is exactly what we are telling the Taliban. AND THIS WHY THEY WON'T SUCCEED. Over 5000 of our soldiers have died so far and over 35000 civilians are dead. During our independence, Indians killed over 3 million of us, but we still gained our freedom. India defeated us in 1971 with the help of Bengalis living in Bangladesh - in any case it was over 1000 miles away from mainland Pakistan. We learned lessons and now we are a nuclear power, despite US sanctions. Our nuclear program is not a Muslim Bomb or a Taliban Bomb as many may like to project - It is only for ensuring Pakistan's security and freedom and let all others day dream.
We will never allow any one to take away our freedom. This may seem rhetorical but is a fact ingrained. We will enhance our nuclear capability, but it is India Centric and not against anyone else. We will not hesitate to use it if our freedom is threatened by the Indians who believe that 5000 years ago Pakistani territory belonged to their kings. period.
Indians always project that they are a peaceful status-quo power and have no hegemonic designs against any of their neighbors. History tell us something different. India is not a status-quo power. It is a regional hegemon. It invaded and captured Junagarh and Manavadar in 1947, invaded and captured Indian Occupied Kashmir in 1947, invaded and captured Hyderabad in 1948, invaded and captured Goa in 1961 which was an area belonging to Portugal, invaded East Pakistan in 1971, invaded and captured Sikkim as late as 1975, invaded and captured some portions of Siachen in 1988, created Sri Lankan terrorist group LTTE and later invaded Sri Lanka in 1988 till the President of Sri Lanka had to openly ask the Indians to leave, invaded Maldives in 1988 and has continually interfered in internal affairs of Nepal and Bhutan and has spread terrorism in all her neighboring states including Pakistan.
Therefore, our survival is our victory and we don't have victory parades to celebrate our freedom. We make sure that we remain free. :)
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