Exploring Pakistan’s Nuclear Thresholds – Analysis

[Officer of Engineers]

You are talking about the known facilities being constructed with Chinese help. How many thousands of centrifuges do Pakistan have is a mere guess game. How much have they increased is also guess game. After the Indian nuclear agreement with USA, how much fissile material has India accumulated is also a guess work.

Physics is not guess work. And my country and my alliance as those of our former great foes (NATO and the Warsaw Pact) have been at this game for 30 years longer than Pakistan had nukes. You may be good at hiding a few things but not that good. As it currently stands, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists states both India and Pakistan have around 100 nukes. One side may have about 10-20 more than other but pretty close to each other. No way either country can double or even get 50 more in the next 2 years. From what I can gather from non-open source materials, that's pretty accurate.

All their ballistic missile batteries should be part of their nuclear command structure, as it is frivolous for a small nuclear power to use these for mere conventional strikes, unless used as dummy strikes to hide the nuclear weapon carrying platform. If they have a lot more than nuclear requirement, then it may be possible to use these for conventional strikes. Yes the cruise missiles which they have would also be used for conventional strikes. I dont think they'd be announcing such exercises in media. I however think that transparency would come in as their program enhances and as they would want their deterrence value enhanced

Your evaluation is faulty. Those Pakistani missiles are based on Chinese programs and the Chinese have replaced their first strike option with conventional packages as did the Americans and the Russians. Again, I state there is no intelligence that either Pakistan nor India have even began mating nukes to rockets. Most certainly, the Pakistanis have not started RV and fuse developments necessary for these programs to do so.

Outdated information. They already have three missile brigades with each strike corps and there are additional missile brigades for long range missiles as well. Currently, I don't have the exact number

Conventional strike packages. Your reference to tac nukes is quite telling which points to your bias. Tac nukes are obsolete. Conventional strike packages delivers equivalent effects and without the hassles and time delays of asking the NCA for release on time sensitive targets. Neither Dehli nor Islamabad would ever release authority to brigade colonels needed by brigade colonels to attack time sensitive targets.

Agreed. The efforts required to take care of even 100 big cities are enormous to say the least.

People will die both during and after a nuclear exchange. The collapse of the local infrastructure so wide apart will collapse both Indian and Pakistani LOCs in trying to rush aide to the impact areas. It is not like an earthquake (which is far more damaging than the entire combined arsenals of both countries) or a tsunami where the damage is concentrated and your rescue parties can move from one end to the other. You have to stretch your rescue forces both north, south, east, west and even Western aide cannot add much.

That being said, it is ludicrous to suggest that no one will live in those cities for a 1000 years. Given enough rain, the radioactivity will be washed away to tolerable levels.

Yes I've read Sunderji's book. He in my opinion was much ahead of his time. However, when India conducted the nuclear tests, no Indian general was even taken in to confidence and therefore their strategic application started later. Yes Pakistanis have not written much about this due to their secrecy stuff, but this does not mean that their induction of nuclear aspect lacked in any way.

You fight the way you are trained and neither India nor Pakistan have been training for nuclear war.

I dont think so. I think they would be ready to fight a nuclear war due to their limited conventional response capability

Lack of conventional response? Despite India's Cold Start Doctrine, any fight between these two are going to be bloody and hard. Those canals the Pakistani Army dug ain't easy to cross.

[Tinu]

Physics is not guess work. And my country and my alliance as those of our former great foes (NATO and the Warsaw Pact) have been at this game for 30 years longer than Pakistan had nukes. You may be good at hiding a few things but not that good. As it currently stands, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists states both India and Pakistan have around 100 nukes. One side may have about 10-20 more than other but pretty close to each other. No way either country can double or even get 50 more in the next 2 years. From what I can gather from non-open source materials, that's pretty accurate.

Agreed physics is not guess work and is worked on accurate stats. And these accurate stats are the ones which should be accurate enough to produce accurate results - these accurate stats are not available.
I disagree on your content that only limited %age can be hidden.
I for one would question your non-open source information

Your evaluation is faulty. Those Pakistani missiles are based on Chinese programs and the Chinese have replaced their first strike option with conventional packages as did the Americans and the Russians. Again, I state there is no intelligence that either Pakistan nor India have even began mating nukes to rockets. Most certainly, the Pakistanis have not started RV and fuse developments necessary for these programs to do so.

My evaluation may be faulty. Agreed. However, your evaluation is based on Russia - America nuclear environment. Pakistan and India are two nuclear armed neighbors which Russia and America or the Chinese are not. The environment here is almost completely different and so would the reactions of the two countries would be.
Who said the nukes are mated. In Indian case I've read news coverage indicating construction of silos for missiles, but whether they would be mated or are mated, I also have no confirmed information - though the concept of construction of silos tend to indicate mated environment or drastic reduction of reaction time.

You need to better understand the environment of two acrimonious nuclear neighbors living under nuclear environment before comparing Russian and American experience - In my knowledge there are many many things which can not be taken for granted.

Conventional strike packages. Your reference to tac nukes is quite telling which points to your bias. Tac nukes are obsolete. Conventional strike packages delivers equivalent effects and without the hassles and time delays of asking the NCA for release on time sensitive targets. Neither Dehli nor Islamabad would ever release authority to brigade colonels needed by brigade colonels to attack time sensitive targets.

Well, again I would ask you to try and better understand the nuclear environment of two acrimonious nuclear armed neighbors. US nuclear response in European theater was different, though at one time, the theater commander was allowed to use 50-60 nuclear weapons within first some minutes of WARSAW's offensive, which included tactical use of nuclear weapons. That is what the author also emphasizes, "use of tactical nuclear weapons or tactical use of nuclear weapons". However, in case of two nuclear armed neighbors, the SOPs of how to use these weapons, if at all, can be worked out - again I emphasize, you need to understand that these are two neighbors with inflammable acrimonious relationship and the survival of one against the threat of other.

People will die both during and after a nuclear exchange. The collapse of the local infrastructure so wide apart will collapse both Indian and Pakistani LOCs in trying to rush aide to the impact areas. It is not like an earthquake (which is far more damaging than the entire combined arsenals of both countries) or a tsunami where the damage is concentrated and your rescue parties can move from one end to the other. You have to stretch your rescue forces both north, south, east, west and even Western aide cannot add much.

Agreed. You need to understand the response capability of both these countries. I have lived in both for a protracted period of time and it is nothing like what you see in the west. The response capabilities, whatever the strength, are all in the cities, and if the cities get nuked, the illiterate villagers wont be able to respond in the manner

That being said, it is ludicrous to suggest that no one will live in those cities for a 1000 years. Given enough rain, the radioactivity will be washed away to tolerable levels.

Agreed

You fight the way you are trained and neither India nor Pakistan have been training for nuclear war.

I disagree partly. Both countries have conducted exercises with this in mind

Lack of conventional response? Despite India's Cold Start Doctrine, any fight between these two are going to be bloody and hard. Those canals the Pakistani Army dug ain't easy to cross.

WOW ....... Both countries have these canals and defense ditches constructed on their borders. You are an engineer, you'd better understand the AVLBs, and numerous other types of quick launch bridges etc. Both armies have these and continuously practice to cross these obstacles using such engineer infrastructure. These can delay an advancing force, can not stop it.

[bigross86]

Wow. Did you just question a Staff level Engineer on engineering tactics and tools? Tinu, you might be knowledgeable in the area, but until you show some creds that show you have a comparable amount of knowledge and experience as the Colonel, you are outgunned here.

Israel also has a very intricate system of ditches, berms and minefields and we train to breach the Syrian side, but the difference in the training is that Israel is in a fight for her survival. Barring the nuclear option, and considering the size of the border between India and Pakistan, neither India nor Pakistan are in a survival deathmatch and therefore the tactics and strategies are different, including the acceptable casualties in breaching the fortifications.

[Tinu]

Wow. Did you just question a Staff level Engineer on engineering tactics and tools? Tinu, you might be knowledgeable in the area, but until you show some creds that show you have a comparable amount of knowledge and experience as the Colonel, you are outgunned here.

Israel also has a very intricate system of ditches, berms and minefields and we train to breach the Syrian side, but the difference in the training is that Israel is in a fight for her survival. Barring the nuclear option, and considering the size of the border between India and Pakistan, neither India nor Pakistan are in a survival deathmatch and therefore the tactics and strategies are different, including the acceptable casualties in breaching the fortifications.

Oh I am so sorry if you feel I've challenged any professional here. You may have misunderstood my intent - which was pure intellectual discussion and nothing more. I am learning here and it is a good intellectual discussion. I am enjoying being part of it, but I never intended to challenge any professional. I highly respect these guys - they are good at what they do, as those professionals some of whom I know in Pakistan. :)

[Tinu]

Wow. Did you just question a Staff level Engineer on engineering tactics and tools? Tinu, you might be knowledgeable in the area, but until you show some creds that show you have a comparable amount of knowledge and experience as the Colonel, you are outgunned here.

Israel also has a very intricate system of ditches, berms and minefields and we train to breach the Syrian side, but the difference in the training is that Israel is in a fight for her survival. Barring the nuclear option, and considering the size of the border between India and Pakistan, neither India nor Pakistan are in a survival deathmatch and therefore the tactics and strategies are different, including the acceptable casualties in breaching the fortifications.

Pakistan considers itself in a survival mode and that is why the nuclear as well as the conventional environment are completely different as compared to many other parts of the world. One needs to understand the nuclear environment between India and Pakistan in this survival mode.

[Tinu]

Oh I am so sorry if you feel I've challenged any professional here. You may have misunderstood my intent - which was pure intellectual discussion and nothing more. I am learning here and it is a good intellectual discussion. I am enjoying being part of it, but I never intended to challenge any professional. I highly respect these guys - they are good at what they do, as those professionals some of whom I know in Pakistan. :)

I've amended my post as well.

[bigross86]

Pakistan considers itself in a survival mode and that is why the nuclear as well as the conventional environment are completely different as compared to many other parts of the world. One needs to understand the nuclear environment between India and Pakistan in this survival mode.

Pakistan may consider itself in survival mode, but physically it is not. A country of 170 million is not at threat of extinction from a ~3.5 million man army, barring a nuclear exchange. Islamabad is ~300 km from the border, and even IF Islamabad would fall, Pakistan is still not in threat of it's existence, especially since as far as I know, the main portion of the conflict revolves around Kashmir.

[Officer of Engineers]

Agreed physics is not guess work and is worked on accurate stats. And these accurate stats are the ones which should be accurate enough to produce accurate results - these accurate stats are not available.

A factory and a mine has been producing x amount of materials for x amount of years. That ain't no made up stuff.

I disagree on your content that only limited %age can be hidden.

You've never seen NATO and Warsaw Pact eyes and ears working. We are not India and Pakistan. We have been looking for and targeting each other's nukes long before both South Asian countries got that gleam in their eyes. In case, you don't get the meaning. The 1st strike option against both India and Pakistan has been studied and the confidence of their success is not low.

I for one would question your non-open source information

Be my guess.

Pakistan
Indian nuclear forces, 2010

My evaluation may be faulty. Agreed. However, your evaluation is based on Russia - America nuclear environment. Pakistan and India are two nuclear armed neighbors which Russia and America or the Chinese are not. The environment here is almost completely different and so would the reactions of the two countries would be.

You're right. The environment is different. Ours had far, far, far, far, far more lethality. The Fulda Gap dwarfs anything both India and Pakistan can even pretend to understand. The opening day of that unfought war would have seen over 1000 nukes being tossed against one another. You have a long way to go to pretend you know more than me here.

Who said the nukes are mated. In Indian case I've read news coverage indicating construction of silos for missiles, but whether they would be mated or are mated, I also have no confirmed information - though the concept of construction of silos tend to indicate mated environment or drastic reduction of reaction time.

And thus, their primary 1st strike mission is conventional.

Well, again I would ask you to try and better understand the nuclear environment of two acrimonious nuclear armed neighbors. US nuclear response in European theater was different, though at one time, the theater commander was allowed to use 50-60 nuclear weapons within first some minutes of WARSAW's offensive, which included tactical use of nuclear weapons. That is what the author also emphasizes, "use of tactical nuclear weapons or tactical use of nuclear weapons". However, in case of two nuclear armed neighbors, the SOPs of how to use these weapons, if at all, can be worked out - again I emphasize, you need to understand that these are two neighbors with inflammable acrimonious relationship and the survival of one against the threat of other.

Both Pakistan and Indian nuclear force postures are consistent with a 2nd strike retaliatory role. There has been no training to mate, mount, and launch nuke tip missiles on surprise alerts. Their storage is also consistent with design to absorb a 1st strike rather than launch on warning, mainly component form nukes not mated to delivery vehicles and thus, spreading out the number of targets that must be hit to disable the nuclear arm. In complete contrast to American, Russian, British, and French arsenals where a significant portion is always on a warfooting. No Pakistani nor Indian nuke is on a warfooting.

Agreed. You need to understand the response capability of both these countries. I have lived in both for a protracted period of time and it is nothing like what you see in the west. The response capabilities, whatever the strength, are all in the cities, and if the cities get nuked, the illiterate villagers wont be able to respond in the manner

You mean those villagers cannot give someone water or give him a decent burial if only to avoid rotting corpses poisoning their water?

Those villagers go against your argument, not for. You cannot bomb someone back to the stone age when they're already being happy in the stone age.

I disagree partly. Both countries have conducted exercises with this in mind.

Show me which exercise resembles a nuclear battlefield. I've been through quite a few of those. Which one are you suggesting is one?

WOW ....... Both countries have these canals and defense ditches constructed on their borders. You name yourself an engineer, you'd understand the AVLBs, and numerous other types of quick launch bridges etc. Both armies have these and continuously practice to cross these obstacles using such engineer infrastructure. These can delay an advancing force, can not stop it.

I am not going to cross a corps on AVLBs.

[Cactus]

I highly respect these guys - they are good at what they do, as those professionals some of whom I know in Pakistan. :)

Tinu, Would you care to tell us what are those "80% of Indian armed forces deployed against Pakistan"? By a rough rule of thumb I see that Indian Eastern and ANC Commands have nothing to do with Pakistan, Northern, Central and Southern Commands are dual-tasked, and only the Western and South-Western Commands are primarily Pak-centric. Yes, the Indian heavy ground forces are Pak-centric, and it is a self-explanatory factor of topography and current threat-perception; in balance, you should note that the Indian naval and strategic forces are proportionately lot less interested about Pakistan. What do your professional friends in Pakistan have to say about those formations?

[Tinu]

Pakistan may consider itself in survival mode, but physically it is not. A country of 170 million is not at threat of extinction from a ~3.5 million man army, barring a nuclear exchange. Islamabad is ~300 km from the border, and even IF Islamabad would fall, Pakistan is still not in threat of it's existence, especially since as far as I know, the main portion of the conflict revolves around Kashmir.

Like Israel, people generally do not understand the terrain properly to visualize the kind of threat they face. Therefore, it is important to understand the terrain along India-Pakistan border and how does it impinge on defense as well as offense. The three Indian strike corps and other corps size formations which are predominated with armour and mechanized columns and supported by many additional divisions (minus the nuclear environment) would attempt to cut the thin Pakistan waist possibly from 3-4 different locations and would later attempt to deal with each segregated portion independently. Pakistan's limited war stamina as compared to India is likely to force Pakistan to make an early nuclear call, which in my opinion is basically a survival call. The author says that even threat of capture of Islamabad and other such like critical centers may invite threat of nuclear response.

Like I said, people who are not from Israel may not correctly understand their predicament - so would people who are not from Pakistan, would find it difficult to understand as to how Pakistan feel and react.

[Tinu]

Tinu, Would you care to tell us what are those "80% of Indian armed forces deployed against Pakistan"? By a rough rule of thumb I see that Indian Eastern and ANC Commands have nothing to do with Pakistan, Northern, Central and Southern Commands are dual-tasked, and only the Western and South-Western Commands are primarily Pak-centric. Yes, the Indian heavy ground forces are Pak-centric, and it is a self-explanatory factor of topography and current threat-perception; in balance, you should note that the Indian naval and strategic forces are proportionately lot less interested about Pakistan. What do your professional friends in Pakistan have to say about those formations?

OK. You asked for it ...... here goes

Indian border with China including the LAC is about 3380 kilometers. With Pakistan the border including the LOC spans for about 2012 kilometers. To defend this vast space Indian Army’s current deployment posture and the increase after new raising still indicate a heavy bias towards Pakistan.

Commands (less Training Command)
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 5
Against China (Current Deployment) - 1
Against China (After New Raising) - 1

Corps
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 10
Against China (Current Deployment) - 3
Against China (After New Raising) - 4

Armoured Divisions
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 3
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 0

Mechanised Divisions
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 5
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 0

Infantry Divisions
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 17
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 0

Mountain Divisions which are part of eastern command, in case of war with Pakistan, most are moved to Pakistan borders
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 3
Against China (Current Deployment) - 7
Against China (After New Raising) - 11

Artillery Divisions
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 3
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 1

Independent Armoured Brigades
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 7
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 0

Independent Mechanised Brigades
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 2
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 0

Independent Infantry Brigades
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 2
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 0

Mountain Brigades
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 3
Against China (Current Deployment) - 1
Against China (After New Raising) - 3

Independent Artillery Brigades
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 3
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 0

Independent Air Defence Brigades
Indian Army Deployment Against Pakistan - 12
Against China (Current Deployment) - 0
Against China (After New Raising) - 0

Out of the current 6 Army operational commands (each comprising 2–3 Corps) 5 are deployed against Pakistan. Eastern Command touted to be deployed against China, also looks after the Bangladesh and Myanmar borders. In case of war, most of its formations move to Pakistan border as has happened in all previous wars.

Out of thirteen Corps’, ten are defensive, while three are Strike Corps. The three strike Corps consist of 3 Armoured, 4 Infantry, 5 Mechanised and 3 Artillery Divisions. The only country against whom these mechanised components numbering over 3-4000 tanks and armoured personnel carriers could be employed, is Pakistan and not China due to the mountainous nature of the terrain. Ten out of the thirteen Corps are deployed against Pakistan.

The Indian Navy is equipped with over 140 surface ships, 17 submarines and 119 aircraft/helicopters, divided in 4 Naval Commands with bulk deployed against Pakistan. Out of 16 Indian Navy bases, only 4 are deployed on its eastern coast against purported Chinese intrusion in the Bay of Bengal whereas 12 naval bases are on its western coast against Pakistan.

Indian Air Force consists of 5 operational commands. It has 44 Operational Squadrons and 12 Transport Squadrons. 29 Indian Air Bases are deployed against Pakistan as compared to 6 against China, which India calls it enemy number one.

Please read this and then we can discuss. :)

[Tinu]

A factory and a mine has been producing x amount of materials for x amount of years. That ain't no made up stuff.

Sir, Agreed. However, you can be accurate only if you know the x amount of materials and for x amount of years, provided you know the number of days the factory didn't work. When these things are secret, only intelligent guesses are worked out which in my opinion are not always correct.

You've never seen NATO and Warsaw Pact eyes and ears working. We are not India and Pakistan. We have been looking for and targeting each other's nukes long before both South Asian countries got that gleam in their eyes. In case, you don't get the meaning. The 1st strike option against both India and Pakistan has been studied and the confidence of their success is not low.

Well sir, good luck to your strike options and confidence - have you worked out the details, if you may be surprised and then the consequences. Think coolly, as we are discussing nuclear strike options here. In any case Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is India Centric and is no threat to the west.

Be my guess.

Pakistan
Indian nuclear forces, 2010

Sir these are open source materials. I can produce a ton of links here and no two analyses may be identical.

You're right. The environment is different. Ours had far, far, far, far, far more lethality. The Fulda Gap dwarfs anything both India and Pakistan can even pretend to understand. The opening day of that unfought war would have seen over 1000 nukes being tossed against one another. You have a long way to go to pretend you know more than me here.

And thus, their primary 1st strike mission is conventional.

Agreed as far as your environment are concerned. You are talking India - Pakistan - and Sir by no stretch of imagination I consider you an expert in this field - no offense meant sir.

The primary first strike mission is nuclear - delay in mating notwithstanding. This is not a hair-trigger alert environment. See even our thinking is different


Both Pakistan and Indian nuclear force postures are consistent with a 2nd strike retaliatory role. There has been no training to mate, mount, and launch nuke tip missiles on surprise alerts. Their storage is also consistent with design to absorb a 1st strike rather than launch on warning, mainly component form nukes not mated to delivery vehicles and thus, spreading out the number of targets that must be hit to disable the nuclear arm. In complete contrast to American, Russian, British, and French arsenals where a significant portion is always on a warfooting. No Pakistani nor Indian nuke is on a warfooting.


Sir, the systems that are followed by nuclear neighbors are not the same as followed by Russians and Americans. You need to understand that. We dont follow your definitions as well. :)

You mean those villagers cannot give someone water or give him a decent burial if only to avoid rotting corpses poisoning their water?

Those villagers go against your argument, not for. You cannot bomb someone back to the stone age when they're already being happy in the stone age.

Agreed.

Show me which exercise resembles a nuclear battlefield. I've been through quite a few of those. Which one are you suggesting is one?

Hmmmmm .... I believe mock sites are available with both India and Pakistan. No, these are not nuked ones :)

I am not going to cross a corps on AVLBs.

Agreed. As I said, AVLBs and other quick launch bridges. I am not a soldier and neither an engineer but I've seen corps sized formation crossing rivers, canals and ditches.

[Tinu]

Quote from Cactus
Tinu, Would you care to tell us what are those "80% of Indian armed forces deployed against Pakistan"? By a rough rule of thumb I see that Indian Eastern and ANC Commands have nothing to do with Pakistan, Northern, Central and Southern Commands are dual-tasked, and only the Western and South-Western Commands are primarily Pak-centric. Yes, the Indian heavy ground forces are Pak-centric, and it is a self-explanatory factor of topography and current threat-perception; in balance, you should note that the Indian naval and strategic forces are proportionately lot less interested about Pakistan. What do your professional friends in Pakistan have to say about those formations?



Sir,
Let me talk about the dual tasked formations. Indian Northern Command - 14, 15, 16 and 9 Corps' are deployed against Pakistan. An infantry brigade and some Indo Tibetan Border Police battalions are deployed against China. The stretch of border along India - Pakistan and India - China is almost the same. And yes sir, an infantry brigade and few ITBP battalions are tasked to fight against Chinese as compared to 4 Corps' are deployed along the line of control in Indian Occupied Kashmir.

Central Command - All its Corps' are used against Pakistan and this has been proven time and time again by the exercises they conduct. No known exercise by any of these elements have been conducted along India - China border.

Yes these are dual tasked formation and would move to Chinese border only in case of war with China, but their primary task is against Pakistan.

Andaman Nicobar Command (ANC) - This command can threaten Pakistani shipping through Malacca Straits and is thus a threat to Pakistan.

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, Agreed. However, you can be accurate only if you know the x amount of materials and for x amount of years, provided you know the number of days the factory didn't work. When these things are secret, only intelligent guesses are worked out which in my opinion are not always correct.

It took Pakistan over 15 years to get 100 nukes. No matter what your guess is, there is simply no way to double that in 2. Not without at least doubling of factories.

Well sir, good luck to your strike options and confidence - have you worked out the details, if you may be surprised and then the consequences. Think coolly, as we are discussing nuclear strike options here.

That contingency's confidence is high. If you note that there is talk about American SF teams securing Pakistani nukes in case of a Pakistani Taliban take over. That contingency is openly discussed. The nuclear strike contingency is not. But be that as it may, American confidence in locating Pakistani nukes is extremely high.

In any case Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is India Centric and is no threat to the west.

It's a threat when its usage becomes irresponsible. The Taliban takeover scenario is one that is heavily discussed and while dismissed by Pakistan, it is entertained in Washington.

Sir these are open source materials. I can produce a ton of links here and no two analyses may be identical.

I have challenged these conclusions and more specifically Hans Kristensen in the past. He added 20 more nukes to Pakistan's arsenal from 2009 to 2010 with the flimsiest of explanations. That being said, he is referenced by the Indian Military as being accurate to Pakistan ... and by extension, India. The Nuclear Notebook is the reference material for arms control observers and while not always accurate (China has been referenced with 100s more nukes than she actually had), their research is extensive. If you wish to challenge, then challenge the materials they've produced.

Agreed as far as your environment are concerned. You are talking India - Pakistan - and Sir by no stretch of imagination I consider you an expert in this field - no offense meant sir.

The primary first strike mission is nuclear - delay in mating notwithstanding. This is not a hair-trigger alert environment. See even our thinking is different

I was a war fighter and some tenets of warfare remains the same no matter which side of the world you live in. When speaking of nuclear weapons, there is a danger of use them or lose them. Conventional systems are now accurate enough to take out nuclear delivery vehicles.

The is the Chinese 1st strike threat that I spoke of earlier that China can posed to India without one single nuke. China has now 2000 SSMs dedicated to a conventional strike mission. Most of them are aimed at Taiwan but 5 500lb bombs landing on a non-slio rocket whether that rocket carries a nuke or not will stop that rocket from ever carrying a nuke.

Sir, the systems that are followed by nuclear neighbors are not the same as followed by Russians and Americans. You need to understand that. We dont follow your definitions as well.

You will note that I deliberately left out the Chinese. You've read Sundarji. You should read up on Chinese Field Marshall Rie, China's nuclear weapons strategist. While there is no open writing on Pakistani nuclear postures, it behaves like both China and India's postures.

Agreed. As I said, AVLBs and other quick launch bridges. I am not an engineer but I've seen corps sized formation crossing rivers, canals and ditches.

I can also get a corps across provided that I can lay a real bridge and I need at least 48 hours to build one good enough to take that kind of pounding, especially 70+ tons vehicles both trucks carrying supplies and those blasted tanks.

[bigross86]

Colonel, what have you against tanks?! What did we ever do to you?