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Thread: Pakistan likely to use Nuclear weapons on India "a few days" into war: US ambassador

  1. #61
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    What's terrorists for Pakistan is not for India and vice versa. Once they agree who the terrorists are...
    IMO, Pretty obvious to see who they are and where they are.
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  2. #62
    Military Professional Deltacamelately's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    Is wondering that if two different countries militaries are on Pakistans borders operating against terrorists then why isint the message getting through. Must be rocket science.
    Dread,

    That's because they still believe that one of the militaries will not be around much long and will still be willing to reign-in the other one....Always.
    Last edited by Deltacamelately; 13 Jun 11, at 14:04.
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  3. #63

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    DCL Reply

    "That's because they still believe that one of the militaries will not be around much long and will still be willing to reign-in the other one....Always."

    Major,

    If so then GHQ Rawalpindi has it half correct. We (our counter-insurgent forces) will likely be gone en toto by 2015. I highly doubt an American security presence will disappear altogether though. I do expect counter-terror elements to remain in Afghanistan or be based offshore in the Indian ocean for some undetermined time beyond 2015.

    Reigning-in the Indian military by America is problematic. India charts a highly independant foreign and nat'l security policy. It's proven largely immune to outside interference and any constraint for whatever reason attempted by America would only occur in concert with other nations. Even so such is not necessarily likely to be effective.

    GHQ Rawalpindi would be well-served to re-evaluate this premise if they believe otherwise.
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  4. #64
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S2 View Post
    Reigning-in the Indian military by America is problematic. India charts a highly independant foreign and nat'l security policy. It's proven largely immune to outside interference and any constraint for whatever reason attempted by America would only occur in concert with other nations. Even so such is not necessarily likely to be effective.

    GHQ Rawalpindi would be well-served to re-evaluate this premise if they believe otherwise.
    Worked the last four times around or at least thats the perception i got.

    Now with nukes don't the stakes get higher.

    This is one of those things that is hard to tell, just because they did it in the past does not necessarily mean it will happen again & vice versa. As it stands if there were a 50-50 chance then both countries gain an equal advantage if not necessarily a major one.

    India has to operate immune to world opinion to secure her objectives and Pakistan has to factor that in.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Jun 11, at 17:28.

  5. #65

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    Double Edge Reply

    "...India has to operate immune to world opinion to secure her objectives and Pakistan has to factor that in."

    My point stands. America cannot unilaterally influence India's foreign policy and/or nat'l security decisions except in the most dire circumstance. Nor could I imagine us trying without a consensus reaching beyond our own borders.

    What that "most dire circumstance" might be eludes me. We've the means but the possible reason is beyond my comprehension. It wouldn't, btw, involve Pakistan.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
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  6. #66
    Senior Contributor commander's Avatar
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    But AM I have a doubt.. If you are keeping your nukes to safeguard and only for your 'defence' why can't Pakistan sign a NFU policy just like India ???
    Last edited by commander; 13 Jun 11, at 22:56.

  7. #67
    Senior Contributor commander's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    What's terrorists for Pakistan is not for India and vice versa. Once they agree who the terrorists are...
    But Doktor whom India consider as terrorists are considered as terrorists by most of the nations right ??? SO that might narrow down..

  8. #68
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by commander View Post
    But Doktor whom India consider as terrorists are considered as terrorists by most of the nations right ??? SO that might narrow down..
    IDK for other parts of the world, but here in 2001 the guys who were shooting on our army and cities were first called "extremists", to later become "rebels", to later become "freedom fighters" and our politicians to be forced (by those who called them extremists) to sign an agreement with them. That transition lasted for ~6 months So, don't jump into conclusions.

    I often say if the Brits won, Washington would have been a terrorist in todays books.
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  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by commander View Post
    But AM I have a doubt.. If you are keeping your nukes to safeguard and only for your 'defence' why can't Pakistan sign a NFU policy just like India ???
    A lot of reasons

    1. She doesn't trust India
    2. She doesn't trust the US
    3. Domestic reasons.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    A lot of reasons

    1. She doesn't trust India
    2. She doesn't trust the US
    3. Domestic reasons.
    No, the most primary reason. The Pakistani military does not trust it can defeat an Indian invasion.

    The same reason why NATO never gave up first use.

  11. #71
    Idiot Mode [ON] OFF Senior Contributor YellowFever's Avatar
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    Also, couldn't India give the same reasons as well?

    1. She doesn't trust Pakistan
    2. She doesn't trust the US (not completely, at least)
    3. Domestic reasons.

  12. #72
    Liberté, Unité, Egalité Senior Contributor Tronic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YellowFever View Post
    Also, couldn't India give the same reasons as well?

    1. She doesn't trust Pakistan
    2. She doesn't trust the US (not completely, at least)
    3. Domestic reasons.
    India has already signed off on a NFU policy.
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  13. #73
    Senior Contributor Asim Aquil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    A lot of reasons

    1. She doesn't trust India
    2. She doesn't trust the US
    3. Domestic reasons.
    Internally whenever we talk about NFU, the question is always raised, will India not launch its nukes in a hypothetical scenario where the PA is marching on towards Delhi?

    Every country that has nukes will use it in a doomsday scenario.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by YellowFever View Post
    Also, couldn't India give the same reasons as well?
    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    India has already signed off on a NFU policy.
    Right, and that is because India trusts that the Chinese are rational players (at least as far as India is concerned), and wants to avoid a mutually ruinous arms-race while still maintaining strategic autonomy. By extension, I think, the Paks believe the Indians are irrational players, and don't mind a mutually ruinous arms-race.

  15. #75
    Senior Contributor Asim Aquil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tronic View Post
    India has already signed off on a NFU policy.
    Which we say, doesn't mean anything.

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