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Pakistan likely to use Nuclear weapons on India "a few days" into war: US ambassador

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  • OoE sir,
    In your post #86, in the link below (just above the 6th quote of vsdoc):
    http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/int...-strike-6.html

    You mentioned that USA could take out Pakistan's nukes using conventional weapons (2011). But now you are saying that USA will drop a nuke to be sure. Does that imply that Pakistan has diversified its nukes, making USA uncomfortable with its conventional strike force capability?

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    • Hope the Advanced Hypersonic Weapon comes online soon... (or am I wrong here)

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      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        1973. Both the US and the USSR had issued nuclear weapons release orders. Not even close to your little example.

        Sir, was it during the Yom-Kippur war? And the subsequent US thinking that USSR might intervene to help the Egyptians, raising the threat level to DEFCON 3, moving troops, jets etc? Watched by Soviet intelligence. IIRC, there was also some kind of false information/alarm and US B-52's almost took off from some USAF base in US.
        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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        • Originally posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
          If Pakistan and India were to engage in a conventional war the US would send a carrier group to the region and try to act as a mediator to calm things down. The US has no interest in India and Pakistan irradiating each other. If the India and Pakistan decide to nuke one another, the US would wait until the missiles quit flying and then try to help pick up the pieces along with the rest of the world.

          The only scenario I can envision in which the US decides to try to seize or neutralize Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is if the Pakistani government or military is crumbling from within and it seems likely that they will lose control of their nukes. In this case the US "might" decide to try to secure or destroy some of the warheads.

          The thing is, Pakistan's nukes just are't very threatening from the perspective of the US. Pakistan's largest ballistic missiles barely have the range to hit any major US allies, much less the US itself. So even if Osama Bin Laden had managed to get his finger on the big red button, he couldn't really harm the US.
          Not sure why people suddenly became so excited about nukes, I thought the Col. had us cover all this a couple of years back.

          But it has already been shown that there exists a space for limited conventional conflict between india and Pakistan : Kargil.

          The US mediated then to save Pakistan's face ( after Nawaz ran crying to him), but I don't believe any carrier group came down.
          "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

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          • Originally posted by popillol View Post
            OoE sir,
            In your post #86, in the link below (just above the 6th quote of vsdoc):
            http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/int...-strike-6.html

            You mentioned that USA could take out Pakistan's nukes using conventional weapons (2011). But now you are saying that USA will drop a nuke to be sure. Does that imply that Pakistan has diversified its nukes, making USA uncomfortable with its conventional strike force capability?
            Steve covered it. It's the timing.

            We have the luxury of first isolating Pakistani nukes so that they can't be moved ... or even found by the Pakistani National Command Authority, ie we can blind the Pakistani NCA from even knowing if their nukes have been attacked.

            And all of this is based on a surprised attack or at least an attack with minimal warning. We cannot allow the Pakistanis ... or the Indians ... to get ready. Either one of you start loading nukes onto trucks, our attack plans become extremely complicated. We now have to find that truck when our strike package arrives.

            Conventionally, it is not one strike against a nuclear target, it's at least six strikes. The first one is the target itself. The second one is to make sure the target is destroyed ... and the rest spread out over several days is to kill both the repair effort and the repairmen.

            Since neither India nor Pakistan can threaten the CONUS, we have that luxury of time. India starting a war forcing the US to finish, that luxury of time is gone and the only answer is nukes. How far can that truck move in a 30 min window that three nukes can't cover?

            India starts a war and guess what? The Pakistanis start readying their nukes. Without you warning us ... and you won't because we will tell you to stop or at least make it extremely difficult for you to start (warning the Pakistanis), Then our only option are nukes.
            Chimo

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            • Originally posted by Oracle View Post

              Sir, was it during the Yom-Kippur war? And the subsequent US thinking that USSR might intervene to help the Egyptians, raising the threat level to DEFCON 3, moving troops, jets etc? Watched by Soviet intelligence. IIRC, there was also some kind of false information/alarm and US B-52's almost took off from some USAF base in US.
              It was worst than that. Soviet boomer Captains had standing orders to nuke every Israeli cities if Dasmascus was taken or attacked.
              Chimo

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              • Originally posted by antimony View Post
                Not sure why people suddenly became so excited about nukes, I thought the Col. had us cover all this a couple of years back.

                But it has already been shown that there exists a space for limited conventional conflict between india and Pakistan : Kargil.

                The US mediated then to save Pakistan's face ( after Nawaz ran crying to him), but I don't believe any carrier group came down.
                India has a lot of space for sub-conventional retaliation against Pakistani terror incursions- the deployment of ever-more sophisticated ISR and its' linking to the IA's artillery arm. With sats, drones, AESA WLR's and possibly ASTOR/JSTAR type planes on the way, you're well placed to launch tube and rocket artillery barrages on select targets that cause massive casualties- and psychological impact- without crossing the border. It will be interesting to see how Delhi uses armed drones when they come online too.

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                • Originally posted by Duellist View Post
                  India has a lot of space for sub-conventional retaliation against Pakistani terror incursions- the deployment of ever-more sophisticated ISR and its' linking to the IA's artillery arm. With sats, drones, AESA WLR's and possibly ASTOR/JSTAR type planes on the way, you're well placed to launch tube and rocket artillery barrages on select targets that cause massive casualties- and psychological impact- without crossing the border. It will be interesting to see how Delhi uses armed drones when they come online too.
                  I am tempted to say that India would have to leverage all those tools over the next 1.5 years, as the US winds down their AfPak Ops and insurgents get to focus their energies on Kashmir.
                  "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

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                  • Seeing the troubles that Pakistan is posing to USA, not to mention India and others, what interests does USA have in not taking out Pakistan's nukes and letting India govern Pakistan?

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                    • Originally posted by popillol View Post
                      Seeing the troubles that Pakistan is posing to USA, not to mention India and others, what interests does USA have in not taking out Pakistan's nukes and letting India govern Pakistan?
                      USA already got it's plate full in the Middle east and in the Eastern Europe. It would rather not deal with Pakistan even though it can ,especially when the country in question has the potential to destroy itself.

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                      • It just has to take out the nukes and not fight a full war. That will be done by India.

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                        • Originally posted by popillol View Post
                          Seeing the troubles that Pakistan is posing to USA, not to mention India and others, what interests does USA have in not taking out Pakistan's nukes and letting India govern Pakistan?
                          You find me one single Indian Army Officer who would like to occupy Pakistan.
                          Chimo

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                          • Well, I don't know any. But if you are saying that no IA officer wants to occupy Pakistan, then I can't see how anyone in IA wishes for peace. If the political establishment decides to occupy Pakistan, I think that will be the final say. Or am I wrong.
                            Pakistan's creation was itself not in interests of India and neither there continued existence, they will do anything just to spite India.

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                            • Originally posted by popillol View Post
                              Well, I don't know any. But if you are saying that no IA officer wants to occupy Pakistan, then I can't see how anyone in IA wishes for peace. If the political establishment decides to occupy Pakistan, I think that will be the final say. Or am I wrong.
                              Pakistan's creation was itself not in interests of India and neither there continued existence, they will do anything just to spite India.
                              Pakistan is like cancer. You can't fully eradicate it but can only contain it. You can undergo chemotherapy (Nuke em) which upto a level might eradicate it, but out of the blue it will spring up and will trouble you again. Moreover our country can't afford to undergo a chemotherapy at the state it is now. Only way forward ? Take precautionary steps and proper medication and just go about your job , there is not much that we can do but only hope that it one day kills itself in the process of killing its host.

                              Trust me, I used to be like you who would want Pakistan just vanished from the face of the earth, but I got to know the reality and have understood it is not that easy to do so and the chances are very less. We need to be realistic, we don't have to stage a direct war unless provoked, just repeat the favour by funding those separatist groups in Balochistan and the likes and the tribal leaders to give Pakistan enough in it's plate so much so it hasn't got time to think about us.
                              Last edited by commander; 14 Sep 14,, 20:02.

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                              • Education and development. Stop their brainwashing. And this can be done only when it is occupied.
                                Last time I checked, Pakistan's population was nearly 200 million. No matter how much efficient you make our border forces, their crossings will always remain a headache, and besides these are only secondary measures. This is not the solution to the problem. Here, we are only trying to contain it from spreading, not attacking the problem itself.
                                Peace doesn't come easy, everyone has to play their part and face it head on, not try to avoid it and hope, every terrorist in Pakistan will kill each other.

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