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  • #91
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    But Wah was a suicide attack, that does not sound like they wanted to take anything just blow things up & make a statement or it was a test. It would appear civilian sites would be more vulnerable than military ones. But there's still a bit more hurdles to overcome to get an operational nuke.
    A test-as you would prefer to call it but an attack nonetheless. You would take due notice of the fact that the suicide attack on Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex in August 2008 did claimed 70 - a one man attack.

    Just recently about 8 people cut through the very guarded PNS base, destroyed 1/3 of Pak's AWS Capability, held out for some 17 hours in the face of 100+ commando's and 1000's of regulars and still 2 out of that 8 managed to escape!!!!!!

    While I fully agree to OOE's assertion above in his reply to vsdoc that Pak's Nuke are sufficiently safe as of moment, but that attempts have been made to Pak's Nuclear Weapons is surely one thing that cannot be ignored.

    That its one thing that Pak so far has been able to hold on firmly to its Nuke's but whether it will be able to do so after more determined attempts replete with insider info, remains to be seen.
    Last edited by Sumku; 28 May 11,, 00:00.

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    • #92
      Originally posted by Sumku View Post
      A test-as you would prefer to call it but an attack nonetheless. You would take due notice of the fact that the suicide attack on Wah Cantonment Ordnance Complex in August 2008 did claimed 70 - a one man attack.
      So what. That they did not try to penetrate more doesn't distinguish this attack any more than if it happened anywhere else.

      Originally posted by Sumku View Post
      Just recently about 8 people cut through the very guarded PNS base, destroyed 1/3 of Pak's AWS Capability, held out for some 17 hours in the face of 100+ commando's and 1000's of regulars and still 2 out of that 8 managed to escape!!!!!!
      Hitting them on a sunday night when presumably they would be less personnel was a good plan. So what was the objective of this attack,

      did they get any key personnel ? No.
      did they steal anything of value ? No.

      They blew up some planes & tried to take some hostages and in the end were overcome.

      Originally posted by Sumku View Post
      While I fully agree to OOE's assertion above in his reply to vsdoc that Pak's Nuke are sufficiently safe as of moment, but that attempts have been made to Pak's Nuclear Weapons is surely one thing that cannot be ignored.
      This is the main point, am still under the impression that we DON'T KNOW whether 'attempts have been made to paks nuclear weapons'. A suicide attack surely does not qualify.

      What was the objective of those three attacks ?

      Originally posted by Sumku View Post
      That its one thing that Pak so far has been able to hold on firmly to its Nuke's but whether it will be able to do so after more determined attempts replete with insider info, remains to be seen.
      Yes, they've set the bar quite high so unless the attacks are more clinical in their operation then nothing more will happen. Even if they do get a nuke they still have to get the detonators & arming codes. Who knows where those are.

      This isn't just a question of snatching a working nuke and then blackmailing the world with it. There are many hurdles to cross before and am getting the impression that unless the Pak army wants to give them these weapons then for all intents & purposes chances of stealing one are unlikely.
      Last edited by Double Edge; 28 May 11,, 08:45.

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      • #93
        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        So what. That they did not try to penetrate more doesn't distinguish this attack any more than if it happened anywhere else.
        But an attempt nonetheless and its not without lack of trying. Pak and for that matter India[leave US] can ignore these at their own peril.
        As you had previously put very succinctly in your above post. This was to test.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Hitting them on a Sunday night when presumably they would be less personnel was a good plan.
        All the more reason to be alarmed. Where is it written that Taliban/AQ/Terrorists are not supposed to strike on a Sunday Night for you to lower your defenses ?
        If terrorists can think one step ahead of a entire state, it spells problem.
        I sure hope like hell that such is not the case wrt to Nuke sites.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        So what was the objective of this attack,
        Enlighten me for PNS Mehran-Wah Cantonment and GHQ Attack

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        did they get any key personnel ? No.
        did they steal anything of value ? No.
        They blew up some planes & tried to take some hostages and in the end were overcome.
        Same as for 26/11. The intent was to show that they can do whatever they want and whenever they want.
        BTW, in case you did not notice these "some planes" represented immense strategic value for PN, more specifically it represented 1/3 of their ASW Capability.

        Was PNS Mehran attack for Pakistan more devastating than 26/11 attack on India ?

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        This is the main point, am still under the impression that we DON'T KNOW whether 'attempts have been made to Paks nuclear weapons'. A suicide attack surely does not qualify.
        What was the objective of those three attacks ?
        As you had yourself put it...to test the waters.
        This has to be seen wrt, 9/11. Attack that bought down the twin towers was NOT the first one with the same intent[to destroy twin towers].With every failed attempt to bring down the twin towers their strategies only got bolder and revolved around doing the unthinkable.

        What tells you that such wont be the case here ? What tells you that their strategies will never move beyond suicide attacks to a more determined approach.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Yes, they've set the bar quite high so unless the attacks are more clinical in their operation then nothing more will happen.
        And the only authorities to stop them from being more clinical in their approach, till so far have not inspired much confidence and stemming from lack of visible and concrete action, who's to guarantee that they wont be more clinical and more bolder in their approach ?

        Look, no one is saying[in case you missed] that its easy for any Tom-Dick and Harry to lay hands on PAK's Nukes, but attempts are being made. Waters are being tested, people are getting bolder.

        I Sure hope that it wont be easy for a bunch of 8-10 terrorists to enter the Pak's nuke sites with Ladders/Cutters etc to enter the Nuke premises on Sunday Night when there are less personnel. But are concerned people learning their lessons?There are no indications of such.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Even if they do get a nuke they still have to get the detonators & arming codes. Who knows where those are.
        Nuke - PNS Mehran or 9/11 or 26/11 type of attack to get it.
        Codes - Insider Info.
        Detonators - This is the only trickiest part for TTP/AQ to get its hands on..

        Again, I am not saying that getting Nukes or Codes would be easy, but given the mindset against in the very people who have power to stop this from happening, there are genuine reasons to be worried.Also as compared to getting detonators, the other 2 are doable with right strategy/planning and manpower. Not easy though.

        Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        This isn't just a question of snatching a working nuke and then blackmailing the world with it. There are many hurdles to cross before and am getting the impression that unless the Pak army wants to give them these weapons then for all intents & purposes chances of stealing one are unlikely.
        Unlikely to what an extent - 100% unlikely or 99.99999% unlikely.

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        • #94
          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          But an attempt nonetheless and its not without lack of trying. Pak and for that matter India[leave US] can ignore these at their own peril.
          As you had previously put very succinctly in your above post. This was to test.
          An attempt at what ? A test of what.

          That's just us assuming without knowing what the objective of these attacks was isn't it. Fine, we can do a process of elimination but there is a key component missing here. No idea if we will ever find out. Does that mean we assume the worst, not sure.

          The first thing is that these attacks need to be repelled effectively. An attack at a civilian institution is less defendable but inexcusable at a military base. Not just because there might be nukes there but because its primarily bad for morale. These guys are trained, they're supposed to handle pro's, militants are less than that.

          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          All the more reason to be alarmed. Where is it written that Taliban/AQ/Terrorists are not supposed to strike on a Sunday Night for you to lower your defenses ?
          If terrorists can think one step ahead of a entire state, it spells problem.
          I sure hope like hell that such is not the case wrt to Nuke sites.
          Lax management. Things should change.

          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          Enlighten me for PNS Mehran-Wah Cantonment and GHQ Attack
          Still searching. PR is the best i can come up with

          Let your own mind stew & create more scary images.

          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          Same as for 26/11. The intent was to show that they can do whatever they want and whenever they want.
          Then its just terrorism. An exploit to boast about.

          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          BTW, in case you did not notice these "some planes" represented immense strategic value for PN, more specifically it represented 1/3 of their ASW Capability.

          Was PNS Mehran attack for Pakistan more devastating than 26/11 attack on India ?
          Don't think it was that specific or purposeful. They found a hole and exploited it. This lends credence to PR value ie we attacked a mil base, any will do and got away with it.

          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          As you had yourself put it...to test the waters.
          This has to be seen wrt, 9/11. Attack that bought down the twin towers was NOT the first one with the same intent[to destroy twin towers].With every failed attempt to bring down the twin towers their strategies only got bolder and revolved around doing the unthinkable.

          What tells you that such wont be the case here ? What tells you that their strategies will never move beyond suicide attacks to a more determined approach.
          Because the barriers are high. They could not do much at these bases as it is so their chances of getting further at a better defended site are lower. They have to get through al of them, get that nuke and then be able to control it which opens up another set of barriers.

          Do you now see how many things have to align before they can threaten the world .
          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          And the only authorities to stop them from being more clinical in their approach, till so far have not inspired much confidence and stemming from lack of visible and concrete action, who's to guarantee that they wont be more clinical and more bolder in their approach ?
          Assumption here is just because it was bad at these three sites it ALSO is bad at the nuke sites. What evidence do you have to support this ?

          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          Look, no one is saying[in case you missed] that its easy for any Tom-Dick and Harry to lay hands on PAK's Nukes, but attempts are being made. Waters are being tested, people are getting bolder.

          I Sure hope that it wont be easy for a bunch of 8-10 terrorists to enter the Pak's nuke sites with Ladders/Cutters etc to enter the Nuke premises on Sunday Night when there are less personnel. But are concerned people learning their lessons?There are no indications of such.
          How would you tell ?

          Originally posted by Sumku View Post
          Nuke - PNS Mehran or 9/11 or 26/11 type of attack to get it.
          Codes - Insider Info.
          Detonators - This is the only trickiest part for TTP/AQ to get its hands on..

          Again, I am not saying that getting Nukes or Codes would be easy, but given the mindset against in the very people who have power to stop this from happening, there are genuine reasons to be worried.Also as compared to getting detonators, the other 2 are doable with right strategy/planning and manpower. Not easy though.


          Unlikely to what an extent - 100% unlikely or 99.99999% unlikely.
          Unlikely if Pakistan wants to exist and i have to believe that they plan on doing just that. They've proven themselves quite adept. They have a whole country to lord over, why would they want to give that up. What Voltaire said about Prussia applies to Pakistan -- an army with a country.

          Because if they get all those thing there is no difference if the military just came out and presented them with a nuke. There is no other out possible. No plausible deniablity.

          Operation Neptune Spear was carried out with 40% confidence. If true then a mere 10% chance might be enough to set gears in motion if the experts believe there is a possibility. Pakistan must have a lot of 'eyes in the sky' peering in.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 30 May 11,, 21:49.

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