^^^ It can't hurt when your CEO is Obama's Windmill Czar....
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So historically, what rate has Germany typically come out of recessions?
Is 3.6% growth higher than normal?"We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008
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The 3.6% growth rate is basically just recouping the one-year recession - just sticking the growth of two regular years into one year. If there had been no recession, the growth rate in comparison to 2007/08 would have been just as high.
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So that means it's booming? That's what I am trying to figure out.
We've come out of recessions at 6% in the past- I was trying to figure out if Germany's growth is a typical post-recession rate, or if it's something exceptional."We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008
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Originally posted by highsea View PostWe've come out of recessions at 6% in the past- I was trying to figure out if Germany's growth is a typical post-recession rate, or if it's something exceptional.
Regarding the unification factor Tarek is alluding to - the recession actually showed quite well where the economic might of Germany lays. That is in the South, where we had recessions of -6% to -10% going by states during 2009 that we're right of booming away from. The eastern states that don't produce anything didn't really go through a recession in 2009 - Berlin actually managed a GDP growth that year. Of course as a second result of this split it's now only the southern states that are recouping - the eastern states at a total +1.1% in 2010 are only experiencing regular, almost subpar growth.
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Only in PPP, not nominal. It also depends on who you ask - 2.7% is the prognosis of IMK; numbers bounce around wildly, KfW even expects a 3.0% growth. DIW does 2.1 to 2.2% (and that's the only prognosis the government is supporting), IfW expects 1.7%.
Effectively it's riding out that bubble and adjusting for the fact that the US Economy is crap right now and was overstated a lot immediately post-recession. German Exports will rise by 10% during 2011, but only by 6.5% in 2012.
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what is it in the German system that makes it so effective, is it education?
Why are you so good at making products so many people want?
How Germany got into that situation in the first place? Well that is actually (to a degree) your "fault". About 130 years ago the UK passed a law that all imported German products had to be labed with "made in Germany" to protect British buyers from cheap German knock-off products (which, at that time, many were). But, shortly after this was introduced, the quality of the "cheap German knock-offs" increased quickly and they became very popular in the British Empire. Instead of a warning it became label associated with quality and was the foundation for reputation German products still have today..so...Thank you very much.
(Of course there are many more reasons and this is very simplified, but I just kind of love the unintentional consequences of said British actions back then)
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Originally posted by kato View PostGermany suffered a minus 4.7% recession in 2009. The 3.6% plus we had in 2010 may seem exceptionally high, but it's just recouping that recession - it's effectively the "normal" growth for 2009 and 2010 rolled into one year. One could speculate on why the 2010 growth had that "two-for-one" special. The most likely cause is simply that the markets Germany exported to exploded in a temporary post-recession bubble. Domestic demand definitely didn't change. The projected growth for 2011 at 1.5% though is far more normal and pretty much standard for the past two decades, so it's not really a persistent boom..
If we had 1.5% as our expected normal, we'd freak out. We want to come out of recessions at 6% and stabilize at 3%.
But the moneychangers misjudged this one..."We will go through our federal budget – page by page, line by line – eliminating those programs we don’t need, and insisting that those we do operate in a sensible cost-effective way." -President Barack Obama 11/25/2008
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Sorry if this is a digression about the issue being discussed but I read 1 story and 2 editorials in a span of a week about how Non-Union workers are slowly climbing in a steady rate in in Germany and this is one of the primary reasons for the economy doing well.
True? False? Doesn't matter?
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Originally posted by YellowFever View PostSorry if this is a digression about the issue being discussed but I read 1 story and 2 editorials in a span of a week about how Non-Union workers are slowly climbing in a steady rate in in Germany and this is one of the primary reasons for the economy doing well.
True? False? Doesn't matter?
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Originally posted by highsea View PostRight.
If we had 1.5% as our expected normal, we'd freak out. We want to come out of recessions at 6% and stabilize at 3%.
But the moneychangers misjudged this one...
Also, in general our booms are smaller than those of the US, but so are our recessions. I guess it is mostly a question of personal preference if you prefer boom & bust or "slow n steady". Further traditionally the US economy seems to be based on a huge part on private consumption and that people often spend much more than they actually could afford, while here saving up money is more the norm (the saving ration for personal households in Germany is than 5 times as high than in the US).
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Originally posted by YellowFever View PostSorry if this is a digression about the issue being discussed but I read 1 story and 2 editorials in a span of a week about how Non-Union workers are slowly climbing in a steady rate in in Germany and this is one of the primary reasons for the economy doing well.
True? False? Doesn't matter?
One of the biggest pillars of the German Economy for example is the car industry and their unions are quite strong and influential, yet almost all our big car producers are thriving regardless. Unions are much less demonized in Germany than they seem to be in the US at the moment, but also seem to be much more flexible and willing to at make (at least temporary) sacrifices if the company falls on hard times.
To give a shorter answer:
Partly true, but a much more minor reason compared to others.
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