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Thread: Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

  1. #121
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    look like there are still a lot of german folks with some common sense, which i cannot say for some particular members here.

  2. #122
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    Will post final results when they're officially out with seat distributions. Preliminary results look roughly like the surveys, except for more nazis in Saxony-Anhalt.

  3. #123
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    Final results for Baden-Württemberg

    In Parliament
    Greens - 30.3% - 47 seats (46 direct)
    CDU - 27.0% - 42 seats (22 direct)
    AfD - 15.1% - 23 seats (2 direct)
    SPD - 12.7% - 19 seats (no direct)
    FDP - 8.3% - 12 seats (no direct)

    Not in Parliament
    Left - 2.9%
    ALFA - 1.0%
    ÖDP - 0.7%
    Pirates - 0.4%
    NPD - 0.4%
    REP - 0.3%
    PARTEI - 0.3%
    Animal Protection Party - 0.3%
    Free Voters - 0.1%

    Under 1000 votes total, and hence all 0.0%
    BüSo, DKP, Unity, Alliance C, Human World, Animal Protection Alliance, Armininius Federation

    Seat distribution and coalition options

    Total 143 seats, required for majority are 72 seats. The current government coalition (Green-Red) has pulled in 66 seats, not enough for a majority. By coincidence, seat distribution ended up as the regular parliament size (120 seats) with the AfD faction tacked on to the side.

    The AfD gained their two direct seats in Mannheim I (previously SPD) and Pforzheim (previously CDU), two downtraught industrial cities. The Mannheim I race in particular was a rather gripping one, with the AfD only 450 votes ahead of the SPD candidate and the Greens only 250 votes behind the SPD candidate.

    All other direct mandates in cities went to the Greens. The Greens won 37 seats previously held by the CDU (including one where the CDU had an absolute majority in the last election) and 9 seats they had won themselves previously. CDU kept 22 direct mandates. If the election had been first-past-the-post the Greens would hold a 65.7% majority now.

    Secondary seats through redistribution went to the AfD (21), CDU (20), SPD (19), FDP (12) and Greens (1).

    Sole coalition options are:
    a) fortifying the current coalition by taking in the FDP (would have 78 seats).
    b) a new Green-Black coalition (would have 89 seats).
    c) a new Black-Red-Yellow coalition (would have 73 seats).

    Option c) (the "Germany Coalition", for the flag colors) is mostly pushed by the CDU since that way they'd field the new prime minister.
    Option b) has considerable backing among the right wing of the Greens, but is not favoured among the current leading center wing.
    Option a) is the most likely due to the FDP already positioning itself for it.

    The state government currently is formed by the prime minister (Green), 13 ministers (7 SPD, 6 Green) and two state secretaries (Green). Under coalition option a), the FDP would likely gain at least two ministerial posts from the SPD; under coalition option c) the ministerial posts would be jumbled anyway, since the CDU would restructure them.

  4. #124
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    Final results for Rhineland-Palatinate

    In Parliament
    SPD - 36.22% - 39 seats (27 direct)
    CDU - 31.80% - 35 seats (24 direct)
    AfD - 12.57% - 14 seats (no direct)
    FDP - 6.21% - 7 seats (no direct)
    Greens - 5.32% - 6 seats (no direct)

    Not in Parliament
    Left - 2.82%
    Free Voters - 2.26%
    Pirates - 0.78%
    ALFA - 0.63%
    NPD - 0.50%
    ÖDP - 0.40%
    REP - 0.24%
    Unity - 0.14%
    Third Way - 0.10%

    Two independent direct candidates each received 628 and 324 votes respectively.

    Seat distribution and coalition options

    Total seats are 101, required majority is 51. Like in Baden-Württemberg, the government coalition (Red-Green) has - at 45 seats - not pulled in enough for a majority.

    Rhineland-Palatinate has a two-vote system, voting separately for direct mandate and list mandates; among the direct mandate vote the AfD only gained 7% of the ballot, in absolute numbers the three parties in parliament that did not pull in direct mandates all gained between 135000 and 147000 votes total in the state on that vote. The FDP and Greens in this regard pulled in more votes than on their list mandate ballot; the same goes for the Left and the Free Voters.
    These discrepancies show that a considerable amount of what is called "tactical voting" in Germany occured here, i.e. giving your second vote to the party you want to win but using your first, direct vote to express which party you actually support. Tactical voting usually is used to keep a minority partner of your bloc in parliament (typically for the FDP and Greens), or is used - in this case - to express discontent with some policies of your political party.

    Sole coalition options are:
    a) fortifying the current coalition by taking in the FDP (would have 52 seats).
    b) a new Red-Black coalition (would have 84 seats).

    Not much talk about which option would be preferred yet. Option a) is actively pursued by the government.

  5. #125
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    Final results for Saxony-Anhalt

    In Parliament
    CDU - 29.8% - 30 seats (27 direct)
    AfD - 24.2% - 24 seats (15 direct)
    Left - 16.3% - 17 seats (1 direct)
    SPD - 10.6% - 11 seats (no direct)
    Greens - 5.2% - 5 seats (no direct)

    Not in Parliament
    FDP - 4.9%
    Free Voters - 2.2%
    NPD - 1.9%
    Animal Protection Party - 1.5%
    Animal Protection Alliance - 1.0%
    ALFA - 0.9%
    PARTEI - 0.5%
    MG - 0.5%
    FBM - 0.4%
    Right - 0.2%

    Seven independent direct candidates pulled in around 0.4% of the first (direct) vote combined.

    Seat distribution and coalition options

    Total seats are 87, required majority is 44. The previous government coalition (Black-Red) has 41 seats.

    Like in Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt has a two-vote system. There was also a lot of "tactical voting" here, although in this case mostly slagging off the SPD and Left in favour of the small parties that never had a chance at parliament. The FDP likely only did not get in parliament through tactical voting. However, East-Germans don't really have the same experience at tactical voting, drawing deductions from this is hence a lot more complicated.

    Sole coalition options are:
    a) fortifying the current coalition by taking in the Greens (would have 46 seats).
    b) fortifying the current coalition by taking in the Left (would have 58 seats).

    Option b) isn't an option to the CDU. Option a) (called the "Kenya Coalition", also for the flag colors - they really like that in political commentating) is considered a given.

  6. #126
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    Coalitions resulting from the above elections in the last four months:

    Baden-Württemberg - Green-Black under Green prime minister
    Rhineland-Palatinate - Red-Green-Yellow under SPD prime minister
    Saxony-Anhalt - Black-Red-Green under CDU prime minister

    The government formation in Saxony-Anhalt was particularly problematic since five representatives voted against the new prime minister in a first election round in parliament, suspected to be right-wing members from his own party. The new prime minister himself is from the traditional conservative wing of the CDU with anti-immigration positions (placing him in tentative opposition to Merkel within the CDU).

    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    AfD - 15.1% - 23 seats (2 direct)
    The AfD faction in parliament in Baden-Württemberg fell apart this week, splitting into two factions - one of 13 seats supported by the federal AfD, one of 10 seats ostracized by them. The split occured after the faction leader tried to have a member thrown out of the faction for antisemitic political positions and failing to get a two-thirds majority among faction representatives. He then took the twelve reps that supported him and formed his own faction after securing support for this move from the federal party (although explicitly not from AfD leader Frauke Petry, who moved against him in the affair).

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Coalitions resulting from the above elections in the last four months:

    Baden-Württemberg - Green-Black under Green prime minister
    Rhineland-Palatinate - Red-Green-Yellow under SPD prime minister
    Saxony-Anhalt - Black-Red-Green under CDU prime minister

    The government formation in Saxony-Anhalt was particularly problematic since five representatives voted against the new prime minister in a first election round in parliament, suspected to be right-wing members from his own party. The new prime minister himself is from the traditional conservative wing of the CDU with anti-immigration positions (placing him in tentative opposition to Merkel within the CDU).


    The AfD faction in parliament in Baden-Württemberg fell apart this week, splitting into two factions - one of 13 seats supported by the federal AfD, one of 10 seats ostracized by them. The split occured after the faction leader tried to have a member thrown out of the faction for antisemitic political positions and failing to get a two-thirds majority among faction representatives. He then took the twelve reps that supported him and formed his own faction after securing support for this move from the federal party (although explicitly not from AfD leader Frauke Petry, who moved against him in the affair).
    so what? they're not becoming merkel's seats in any way.

  8. #128
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    Latest survey for Berlin state election (in seven weeks):

    - SPD : 26% (-2.3%) : 42 seats (-5)
    - Greens : 20% (+2.3%) : 32 seats (+3)
    - CDU : 18% (-5.3%) : 29 seats (-10)
    - Left : 16% (+4.3%) : 25 seats (+6)
    - AfD : 8% (+8%) : 13 seats (+13)
    - FDP : 5% (+3.2%) : 8 seats (+8)
    - Others : 7% (-10.3%) : 15 seats (-15)

    Comparison is to last election in 2011. "others" include the pirates which got 9.2% and 15 seats in the last election. Seat projection for the same number of seats as last time which included overhang mandates. Berlin has a standard two-vote system.

    Under above projection the current SPD/CDU state government would not survive the election, which is hyped a bit in the press. They're only facing a pretty minor uphill battle though, the difference to a continuation majority is within the margin of error for the survey. A SPD/Green government would currently also fall a single seat short.

    Berlin has had a hodgepodge of political options for governments in the past, including - the last two times - Red-Red (SPD/Left) and since 1989 various times SPD/Green, SPD-led Grand and CDU-led Grand.
    Last edited by kato; 01 Aug 16, at 18:36.

  9. #129
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    Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election today went about as expected. Rural eastern state, smallest population of any non-city-state, high amount of protest votes, neonazis in parliament quite normal, has seen Grand and Red-Red coalitions in the past.

    Last three surveys, amalgated:
    - SPD 28.0%
    - AfD 22.0%
    - CDU 21.3%
    - Left 13.7%
    - Greens 6.0%

    Earlier surveys had seen the SPD as low as 24%, with the grand coalition in the state possibly endangered.

    The election was dominated by an internal anti-Merkel course especially in the CDU to try to sharpen their profile against the AfD, a strategy that - as should be expected - completely bombed, giving them yet another markdown from their previously already lowest-ever result in the state since reunification.

    Preliminary results:
    - SPD 30.3% / 24 seats (-3 seats)
    - AfD 21.1% / 17 seats (+17 seats)
    - CDU 19.3% / 16 seats (-2 seats)
    - Left 12.6% / 10 seats (-4 seats)
    - Greens 5.0% / 4 seats (-3 seats)
    - NPD 3.4% / 0 seats (-5 seats)

    Current grand coalition has already announced it will continue its coalition. If the Greens drop below 5% a Red-Red coalition would also technically be possible.

    Berlin in two weeks.
    Last edited by kato; 04 Sep 16, at 18:20.

  10. #130
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    Final results for M-V:

    In:
    - SPD 30.6% / 26 seats (-1 seats)
    - AfD 20.8% / 18 seats (+18 seats)
    - CDU 19.0% / 16 seats (-2 seats)
    - Left 13.2% / 11 seats (-3 seats)
    Out:
    - Greens 4.8% / 0 seats (-7 seats)
    - NPD 3.0% / 0 seats (-5 seats)

    M-V is traditionally split into a red West (about two thirds of the country) and a black East - Merkel's own federal election district for parliament in fact is in that black east as a usually secure CDU district. The west stayed red, the East is now equally split between direct mandates going to CDU and AfD, with one district that previously was almost tied between CDU (won last time), SPD and Left at about 24-25% each now turning SPD with +7% gains there and a fight against the AfD won in a 31/29 race.

    Voter turnout jumped from 52 to 62%, mostly benefitting the AfD which got almost half its votes from people who did not vote previously.

    Possible options for government are Grand (SPD/CDU) or Red-Red (SPD/Left). SPD/AfD is not an option for obvious reasons. SPD will hold talks in both directions, although it'll likely be a continuation of the current Grand coalition partly because Red-Red would only have a slim 37-to-34 majority.

    The Greens score badly there because M-V only has a single real city (Rostock) and, well, it's East Germany.
    NPD - neonazis - had been in parliament for ten years and basically lost half their voters to the AfD.

    No chances:
    - FDP 3.0%
    - Animal Protection Party 1.2%
    - Family Party 0.9%
    - Free Horizon 0.8%
    - Free Voters 0.6%
    - The Party* 0.6%
    - Pirates** 0.5%
    - Hiddensee Party*** 0.5%
    - ALFA 0.3%
    - German Communist Party 0.2%
    - Christian Alliance 0.1%

    --

    * The Party had the highest gains in this election of any party who had run previously, scoring an additional 200% over their previous result. FDP was the only other previously running party that gained (+7% over their previous result).

    ** Pirates suffered the worst losses in this election, losing 74% of their previous result. NPD suffered the second-worst losses, losing 50%.

    *** a local CDU chapter on the island of Rügen that left the CDU a decade ago when it threw out a guy who ran on a neonazi ticket in a previous election; party ran for the first time. Raised a bit of a nationwide attention because said former-CDU guy could not be taken off a ballot back then and the federal and state CDU chapters called on people in that district to vote for "anyone else democratic".

  11. #131
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    "- AfD 20.8% / 18 seats (+18 seats)"

    But why? So much from the Wilkommen policy?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  12. #132
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    Also,notice the pattern of losses.It is leftists that are waking up.The issue is if AFD gets ex-Green or Linke voters?Or ex CDU voters,that are getting replaced by ex Left or Green guys?
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  13. #133
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    Nah, it's not.

    The AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern got:

    - 8.60% of the ballot switching from people who didn't vote in the last election
    - 3.44% of the ballot switching from CDU
    - 2.50% of the ballot switching from Left party
    - 2.35% of the ballot switching from SPD
    - 0.47% of the ballot switching from Greens
    - 3.44% of the ballot switching from smaller parties (overwhelmingly NPD, which lost 3.0%)

    This is a similar pattern as in other states. Basically, it's the protest section among the non-voters (and partially among the Left party) waking up that gives the AfD their results.

    For Saxony-Anhalt (24.3% for AfD), another East-German state:

    - 9.82% of the ballot switching from people who didn't vote in the last election
    - 3.69% of the ballot switching from CDU
    - 2.72% of the ballot switching from Left party
    - 1.94% of the ballot switching from SPD
    - 0.58% of the ballot switching from FDP
    - 0.29% of the ballot switching from Greens
    - 5.25% of the ballot switching from smaller parties (mostly NPD, which lost 2.7%)

    Note the similarities to the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote with regard to where the votes came from, especially the percentages switching over for CDU, SPD and Left.

    For Baden-Württemberg (15.1% for AfD):

    - 4.21% of the ballot switching from people who didn't vote in the last election
    - 3.83% of the ballot switching from CDU
    - 1.81% of the ballot switching from SPD
    - 1.41% of the ballot switching from Greens
    - 0.44% of the ballot switching from Left party
    - 0.36% of the ballot switching from FDP
    - 3.04% of the ballot switching from smaller parties

    Note how the main difference - other than the Left party, which isn't a protest vote party in the West - can be found in the number those people who switched from non-voter to AfD. Since that one is much lower the end result for the AfD is also much lower.


    The number of CDU (i.e. Merkel) voters switching to AfD over her politics is around 3.5-3.8% of the ballot in all three states - and in the same range in others who voted recently. That equates to about 15% of all CDU voters in these states. The numbers of disillusioned voters from SPD and Left switching to AfD are around 10% of their voters, for Greens and FDP it's around 5%. The rightwing-extremist parties (NPD, DVU, Republicans and others) in pretty much all recent state elections lost around 50% of their voters to AfD. All that taken together gives the AfD a potential of around 10-13%.
    The non-voters are the part that can't be gauged. Them suddenly voting, and overwhelmingly for AfD, gives the party up to another 10% depending on turnout.

    (PS, note: the above is based on exit polls.)
    Last edited by kato; 05 Sep 16, at 18:05.

  14. #134
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Yet, they finished second. In front of Merkel's in her own state.

    Protest against what?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    In front of Merkel's in her own state.
    That's not that hard. The CDU in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has almost always been on a downhill slide, the current losses aren't their heaviest there:

    -0.6% in 1994, -7.5% in 1998, +1.2% in 2002, -2.5% in 2006, -5.8% in 2011, -4.0% in 2016.

    Merkel held her district in every federal election btw, and performed quite differently from the CDU at state level at least since she took her current office:

    +0.1% in 1994, -11.3% in 1998, +4.3% in 2002, -0.3% in 2005, +8.0% in 2009, +6.9% in 2013.

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