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Thread: Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

  1. #106
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    Looks like a tie so far. SPD and Greens performed as expected, the big surprise was in the FDP results - about 6% of the ballot switched from CDU to FDP to lend them their support and keep them in parliament (and the CDU in government). Left and Pirates both definitely not in parliament.

    Current prognosis (18:55):
    CDU 36.6% (-5.9) -> 54 seats
    SPD 32.3% (+2.0) -> 48 seats
    Greens 13.4% (+5.4) -> 14 seats
    FDP 9.9% (1.7%) -> 19 seats

    68:67 seats for CDU/FDP under that prognosis, likely to change - however the end results are unpredictable right now.

  2. #107
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    More recent prognoses are tilting towards Red-Green.

  3. #108
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    Red-Green has by now officially won with 69:68 seats.

  4. #109
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    February Federal Forecast:

    CDU 40.7% (+7.1%)
    SPD 27.3% (+4.3%)
    Greens 15.0% (+4.3%)
    Left 6.3% (-5.6%)
    FDP 4.2% (-10.4%)
    Pirates 2.7% (+0.7%)
    Others 3.8% (-0.2%)

    Amalgated from: FGW 02/22, Forsa 02/20, GMS 02/19, INSA 02/19, Emnid 02/17, Infratest 02/15

    In Parliament, possible coalitions:
    - Grand Coalition ca 76% of seats
    - Red-Red-Green ca 54% of seats

    Red-Green alone would hold ca 47.4% of seats.

  5. #110
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    Greens are currently set to widen their voter base. Reason is their very defined economic stance, which relies on raising taxes in an eat the rich style. Push maximum taxation to 49% (for earners above ca 100.000 USD), double inheritance tax, reduce/remove tax cuts for married couples, start taxing assets (1.5% tax above one million in capital assets). Demoscopes agree that if they swing this right they're gonna enlarge their voter share by scrounging in particular from the SPD and the Left. The SPD's problem in this regard is that they're too right-wing basically. In a US sense.

  6. #111
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    Update:

    CDU 39.5%
    SPD 26.0%
    FDP 4.0%
    LEFT 7.2%
    GREENS 14.1%
    AFD 2.6% (Anti-European Party)
    OTHERS 6.5% (incl. Pirates, under 5%)

    Amalgated: FGW 05/17, infratest 05/17, GMS 05/16, Forsa 05/15, INSA 05/13, Emnid 05/12

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Greens are currently set to widen their voter base. Reason is their very defined economic stance, which relies on raising taxes in an eat the rich style. Push maximum taxation to 49% (for earners above ca 100.000 USD), double inheritance tax, reduce/remove tax cuts for married couples, start taxing assets (1.5% tax above one million in capital assets). Demoscopes agree that if they swing this right they're gonna enlarge their voter share by scrounging in particular from the SPD and the Left. The SPD's problem in this regard is that they're too right-wing basically. In a US sense.
    49% for 100k? with the vat it seems absurd.

    redistribution never works out well for the people wanting it.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    49% for 100k? with the vat it seems absurd.
    Remember that the US used to have 50% for 106k USD even after Reagan introduced the first of his tax cut rounds - before that it was 70% on ca 200k since LBJ, and before that 91% in the top bracket since WW2. The UK has a top income tax bracket of 50% on anything above 150k GBP currently (they only have three tax brackets though). It's not really that high, or absurd, in comparison.

    VAT, in Germany, is seen as primarily a method to shrink the income of the lower-income part of the population btw. Or rather, as something with which the capitalists oppress the workers. Or, in the words of the FDP and CDU, make the taxation "fairer".

  9. #114
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    Three months to go until federal election.

    Looks like a grand coalition again. Only way we're getting a red-green coalition is pretty much if the Left drops out of parliament. Doable as they're around 6-6.5%, but rather unlikely since among other things the SPD doesn't run a campaign in that regard. FDP, AFD and Pirates probably out of parliament.

    Merkel will probably continue to try to milk the current floods for her campaign, opposition is gonna try to showcase the general inability of the government by running the defense minister out of office before September.

  10. #115
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    One week ahead of the federal election Bavaria has state parliament elections today.

    Projections see the CSU gaining slightly to possibly regain their absolute majority in parliament. These voters will probably come from the Free Voters Union, which is projected to be slightly weaker in parliament, and from the FDP, which is projected to drop out of parliament. CSU and FDP currently form a coalition government. The SPD is likely to perform slightly better than their 2008 historic low point in Bavaria of 18.6%; the same goes for the Greens. It's considered unlikely that the Left will enter parliament.

    The election isn't seen as really that much of an early test for the federal election due to Bavaria's specialties, unless there are significant surprises - such as a CSU performance considerably out of line with projections (both too strong / too weak), a strong SPD/Greens performance, or e.g. the FDP making it into parliament. A strong CSU performance - both today and in the federal election next week - is considered somewhat negative for Merkel since it would bolster the main opposition to her within the joint CDU/CSU faction.

  11. #116
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    Results in Bavaria were just as expected. FDP out of parliament, SPD slightly better than projected, Greens and Free Voters Union slightly down, CSU with slight gains getting absolute majority.

  12. #117
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    Hessen state elections concurrent with feeral election:

    FDP barely managed to avoid dropping out of the state parliament, at exactly 5.0% - a drop of 11.2%, or more than two thirds of their voter share. SPD had considerable gains there (+7%).

    State parliament has 47 seats for CDU, 37 for SPD, 14 for Greens, 6 for Left and 5 for FDP. Majority would be 55 seats, which neither SPD/Greens nor CDU/FDP reach. SPD leadership has already been testing the waters towards Red-Red-Green.

  13. #118
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    So now it will be exciting to see who forms a colation with whom. Probably it will be CDU/CSU with SPD.

  14. #119
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    Germany is facing the Spring Election round 2016.

    Scheduled are:
    - municipal elections in Hesse state, tomorrow
    - state elections in Baden-Württemberg, next week
    - state elections in Rhineland-Palatinate, next week
    - state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, next week

    Next big round after that is in September.

    The three state elections couldn't be more different from each other - we have one state with a Green prime minister fighting to make his party get the largest voter share there, one in which the Left will probably score 20-25% and one where the CDU prime minister candidate has not denied that she'd coalition with the AfD. Only one of the three states will probably have the two federal government coalition partners able to form a coalition together.

    The Hesse municipal election is interesting insofar as the AfD wing in North Hesse basically consists of rightwing-extremists thrown out of the CDU a couple years ago, mixed in with the Reichsbürger movement that considers any German government after 1945 as illegal. As in, the AfD wing in North Hesse is probably among the furthest right-wing in the country. Owing to this, unlike at federal level or in other states, the Hesse AfD wing scores rather low in surveys.
    Hesse, furthermore, according to surveys is seeing a SPD resurgence (up to +10%) in opposition to the conservative CDU-Greens coalitions formed in many towns; in many of these surveys even no longer see a CDU-Greens majority anymore.

  15. #120
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    Most recent projections for the upcoming state elections next sunday, again amalgated from the last three surveys:

    Baden-Württemberg
    Greens - 32.5%
    CDU - 28.5%
    SPD - 13.5%
    AfD - 11.5%
    FDP - 7.0%
    YouGov 03/10, Forsa 03/09, INSA 03/07

    Due to the extremely complicated voting law in Baden-Württemberg one can't really make a final projection of seat distribution from that though. Going by above shares alone in a straightforward draw, the current Green-SPD coalition would narrowly miss the majority by a single seat; however the voting system holds votes unequally in certain cases, which can shift majorities in such narrow cases quite easily.

    In the last two weeks, the CDU has increasingly been losing out to the Greens in surveys (trading first place last week), while the SPD has begun consolidating their position upwards. The AfD has been pretty solid in their position, occasionally losing slightly due to political gaffes. This recent shift moves the populace back to the ruling coalition. AfD votes here mostly come from previous CDU voters (which is losing nearly one-third of their voter share).

    Rhineland-Palatinate
    CDU - 35.3%
    SPD - 35.0%
    AfD - 9.7%
    Greens - 6.3%
    FDP - 5.7%
    YouGov 03/10, Forsa 03/09, INSA 03/07

    RLP is currently ruled by a SPD-Green coalition, which will most definitely not have a majority after the current election (RLP had a Fukushima pro-Green effect in their last election which is now turned back). It is likely it will be replaced by a SPD-CDU coalition led by whoever gains the larger share. There is a theoretical option for a SPD-Green-FDP coalition pushed by the current ruling coalition. The CDU's RLP wing has moved itself pretty far to the right in order to curb AfD voter share; in addition, their PM candidate has - unspokenly - left the option of a CDU/AfD coalition open (which wouldn't have a majority right now).

    Saxony-Anhalt
    CDU - 30.3%
    Left - 20.0%
    AfD - 18.0%
    SPD - 15.8%
    Greens - 5.3%
    Forsa 03/09, INSA 03/07, FGW 03/04

    Current voter share projects a narrow win for the ruling CDU-SPD coalition (45 seats out of 87). However: this is East Germany, and therefore huge protest voter swings in short amounts of time are always possible, especially due to the low attendance in elections; East-German elections tend to have voter swings of +-15% between two elections. The projected AfD squeeze-out mostly affects smaller right-wing parties that aren't in parliament, as well as shares from the SPD that always tends to suffer from allying with the enemy on the other side of the bench.

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