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Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

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  • #76
    Saarland is voting this weekend.

    Amalgated survey results (FGW 03/16, Infratest 03/15, Forsa 03/09):

    SPD - 34.66% (+10.16%)
    CDU - 34.00% (-0.5%)
    Left - 15.00% (-6.3%)
    Pirates - 5.66%
    Greens - 4.66% (-0.94%)
    FDP - 2.00% (-7.2%)
    Others - 4.00%

    Only possible coalitions with that would be:
    68.66% Grand Coalition (SPD-led) - probable
    49.66% Red-Red - only really an option if CDU gets higher share than SPD

    Saarland previously had a CDU-FDP-Greens ("Jamaica") coalition which failed rather phenomenously in January with the CDU currently governing in a minority government. The state is also the only West-German state with a rather strong Left voter share, owing to it being the party CEO Lafontaine's home state. Greens are very low there compared to federal level due to an authoritarian conservative party head who people don't want to vote for.
    Last edited by kato; 22 Mar 12,, 10:40.

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    • #77
      Seat distribution in the Bundesrat (Senate) remains stuck following the Saarland election next sunday - doesn't really matter which coalition wins, either way the fed gov is losing another 3 votes:

      Black-Yellow (federal government): 25 votes
      (Bavaria, Hesse, Lower Saxony, Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein)

      Red-Green (primary opposition coalition): 22 votes
      (Baden-Württemberg, Bremen, Hamburg, NRW, RLP)

      Neutral (other coalitions): 23 votes
      Grand Coalition (15 votes): Berlin, MVP, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia
      Red-Red (4 votes): Brandenburg
      Undecided (3 votes): Saarland
      Last edited by kato; 23 Mar 12,, 16:02.

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      • #78
        Black-Red (federal government): 25 votes
        (Bavaria, Hesse, Lower Saxony, Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein)
        You mean Black-Yellow (Union & FDP), right?

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        • #79
          Yeah.

          Though the next one will probably be black-red again, the way this seems to be going...

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          • #80
            The numbers look like that, but I just have problems see the SPD going for it, the way the last one turned out. But what would be the alternative...Red-Green, tolerated by the Pirates? *g*

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            • #81
              Preliminary result forecast, Saarland:

              ARD / ZDF

              CDU - 35.1 / 34.8
              SPD - 30.5 / 30.7
              Left - 16.4 / 16.2
              Pirates - 7.3 / 7.7
              Green - 5.0 / 5.0
              FDP - 1.4 / 1.3
              Other - 4.3 / 4.3

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              • #82
                Final results:

                in parliament - 94.382% of ballot
                CDU - 35.2403% - 19 seats (+0.7%)
                SPD - 30.5787% - 17 seats (+6.0%)
                Left - 16.1271% - 9 seats (-5.1%)
                Pirates - 7.4068% - 4 seats (new)
                Greens - 5.0381% - 2 seats (-0.9%)

                not in parliament - 5.6090% of ballot
                Family Party - 1.7440% (-0.3%)
                FDP - 1.2199% (-8.0%)
                NPD - 1.1646% (-0.3%)
                Free Voter Union - 0.8668% (new)
                Die Partei - 0.4631% (new)
                Direct Democracy - 0.1496% (new)
                others - 0.0% (-1.1%)

                Majority in parliament is 26 out of 51 seats - with the above final results that means possible coalitions are either Grand (36 seats) or Red-Red (26 seats).
                Last edited by kato; 25 Mar 12,, 21:18.

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                • #83
                  Survey update for early April, federal level; comparison to February in parentheses. Pirates continue rising:

                  CDU - 35.67% (-1.2%)
                  SPD - 27.00% (-0.2%)
                  Greens - 13.33% (-1.5%)
                  Pirates - 9.66% (+2.5%)
                  Left - 7.66% (+0.5%)
                  FDP - 3.33% (+0.5%)
                  Others - 3.33% (-0.6%)

                  (Amalgated from: Forsa 04/03, FGW 03/30, Emnid 04/01)

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                  • #84
                    Amalgated surveys for the NRW state election next month:

                    In Parliament:
                    SPD - 39.66%
                    CDU - 31.33%
                    Greens - 11.00%
                    Pirates - 7.33%

                    Out of Parliament:
                    FDP - 3.66%
                    Left - 3.33%
                    Others - 3.66%

                    (Info GmbH 04/14, Infratest 03/25, Forsa 03/21)

                    Note people rallying from the conservative parties (CDU and Greens) to the liberal ones (SPD and Pirates). Pirates continue rising at mostly CDU expense, interestingly.

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                    • #85
                      Schleswig-Holstein state votes today.

                      Last amalgated surveys before the election (compared to last election):
                      SPD - 32.0% (+6.6%)
                      CDU - 31.0% (-0.5%)
                      Greens - 12.5% (+0.1%)
                      Pirates - 8.7% (+6.9%)
                      FDP - 6.3% (-8.6%)
                      SSW - 4.2% (-0.1%)
                      Left - 2.3% (-3.7%)
                      others - 3.0% (-0.7%)
                      (amalgated from Infratest 04/27, FGW 04/27, GMS 05/02)

                      So, essentially Merkel's federal coalition losing 9.1% and a majority for Red-Green-SSW at 48.7:46.0 (or a slim 35:34 seat majority). The SSW is the Danish ethnic minority party, and excempt from the 5% hurdle to get into parliament. They're traditionally aligned with the SPD. The SSW also traditionally tolerates SPD or SPD-Green governments - this year they're aiming for coalition instead, i.e. getting into government themselves.

                      The CDU campaign this year in SH - last time too btw - is a pretty dirty one primarily aimed at defamation of the SSW. Ethnic slurs and all that; last time it was worse though, as back then the SSW candidates even got death threats in the mail.

                      The last time "other parties" consisted of the Free Voters (1.0%), NPD (Neonazis) (0.9%), Family Party (0.8%), German Senior Citizen Party (0.6%), Senior Citizen Party (0.2%), Interim German Party (Nazis) (0.1%). The two senior citizen parties and the nazis don't field candidates this time, some fringe party called Maritime Union is in the field instead. The parody party PARTEI is fielding candidates in two districts, but was denied running for parliament with a party list.

                      Let's see if those numbers still gonna hold true in about 5.5 hours when the actual final results get published. Before the last election surveys overestimated the FDP and CDU (as usual) and underestimated the SPD (also as usual).
                      Last edited by kato; 06 May 12,, 13:46.

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                      • #86
                        NRW state update, election is in one week:

                        SPD - 37.5% (+3.0%)
                        CDU - 30.7% (-3.9%)
                        Greens - 11.0% (-1.1%)
                        Pirates - 8.5% (+6.9%)
                        FDP - 5.7% (-1.0%) (regaining position)
                        Left - 3.3% (-2.3%) (losing majorly to pirates)
                        others - 3.3% (-1.6%) (good riddance to the nazis in there)

                        (amalgated from yougov 05/03, infratest 05/04, FGW 05/04)

                        The above Schleswig-Holstein election is seen as crucial by Merkel. Losing it means she definitely loses NRW, Germany's most populous state.

                        In NRW one of the public focal points is what the small neonazi party "Pro NRW" is doing. They got 1.4% in the last election. During the last week they've been having three-way street battles with salafists and police involved, with up to 50 officers injured, up to 200 people arrested and so on during the last week. Pro NRW always acts as the inciter in these, and does stuff like holding political rallies in front of mosques and crap like that. The state interior minister of NRW considers Pro NRW a menace to democracy, the state chief of the police union is calling for them to be outlawed.

                        Events like this tend to rally people in Germany towards mainstream parties, hence both why we've got relatively minor changes of percentages in NRW other than the Pirate boom and why we've got a SPD that close to 40% in NRW.
                        Last edited by kato; 06 May 12,, 13:59.

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                        • #87
                          I guess one could add the French election to the list of Merkel's (likely) defeats.

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                          • #88
                            And Greece today? ;)

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                            • #89
                              Results in SH pretty much as expected, 35:34 seats for Red-Green-SSW.

                              FDP and Greens both performed slightly better than expected, at minimal expense to SPD and CDU.

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                              • #90
                                NRW votes today.

                                Last amalgated surveys predict:
                                SPD - 37.3%
                                CDU - 31.3%
                                Greens - 11.3%
                                Pirates - 8.5%
                                FDP - 5.3%
                                Left - 3.8%

                                Will be interesting whether the FDP makes it into parliament. Looks like majority for Red-Green anyway.

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