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Thread: Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

  1. #61
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    First prognoses see FDP pulling in under 3%, Pirates in parliament by considerable margin (8.5-9%) and majority for a Red/Green government.

    Edit: CDU now claims to have managed a rebound - they're seen at 22-23% in prognoses, from 21% in 2006. Of course most of that will be conservative voters from the FDP marching over in droves.
    Last edited by kato; 18 Sep 11, at 17:17.

  2. #62
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    Current calculations:

    (ARD number, 18:15 / ZDF number, 18:14)

    SPD - 29.2% / 28.7%
    CDU - 23.4% / 23.2%
    Greens - 17.9% / 18.4%
    Left - 11.6% / 11.5%
    Pirates - 8.6% / 8.9%
    FDP - 1.8% / 2.0%
    Others - 7.5% / 7.3%

  3. #63
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    Since the vote count is at 98.2% there won't be any changes - so here's the results for the second vote deciding mandate share:

    (in parliament, i.e. above 5%)

    SPD - 28.5%
    CDU - 23.4%
    Greens - 17.6%
    Left - 11.7%
    Pirates - 8.9%

    Pirates have also boarded all 12 district council parliaments.

    (not in parliament, above 1%)

    NPD - 2.1% (traditional neonazis)
    FDP - 1.8%
    Tierschutzpartei - 1.5% (radical vegans)
    pro Deutschland - 1.2% (anti-islamist neonazis)
    Freiheit - 1.0% (anti-islamist neonazis)

    Both NPD and FDP were also kicked out of all 12 district council parliaments in Berlin, with the NPD in those East-Berlin districts where they were in often losing about as much as "pro Deutschland" gained.

    (not in parliament, below 1%)

    PARTEI - 0.9% (satirical pseudoparty)
    BIG - 0.5% (nationalist turkish)
    DKP - 0.2% (stalinists)
    Konservative - 0.2% (neoconservative neonazis)
    BSo - 0.1% (LaRouche)
    PSG - 0.1% (marxist-leninist)
    ddp - 0.1% (left-liberal)
    Familie - 0.1% (pro-children party)
    dp - 0.1% (conservative green)
    APPD - 0.0% (anarchists / punk scene)
    B - 0.0% (anarchists / squatter scene)

    Plus independents taking about 0.1% together.

    APPD, B and PARTEI have some sort of pseudo-cooperation going on. They're the three fun parties in there. In voting district Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 5 those three together got almost as many direct mandate votes as the CDU (6.9% vs 7.3%), just for reference.

    BIG hasn't managed to enter any district council parliaments. There was some concern about that ahead of the election for iirc Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Mitte and Neuklln. BIG got 1.5-2.0% in those three districts.
    Last edited by kato; 18 Sep 11, at 22:52.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    In order to achieve this, the Greens will need to get at least 20% in this district. The SPD also needs a good result in order for the mandate to be redistributed to be a NPD mandate, not one of theirs. The Left has already called on its supporters to "lend their vote" to the Greens, which might be enough (considering Left and Greens got 26.8% together at state level).
    Due to this constellation the Greens managed to pull in 24.8% in the district. However, the SPD didn't perform well enough (at 24.4%) to capture the NPD mandate.

    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    The CDU has sacked him for this reason in the meantime, and will now not field a direct candidate in the district. They are calling on their voters to vote for "a democratic party" with their first vote
    Direct mandate in the traditionally CDU-dominated conservative district went to the SPD candidate (25.7%) slightly ahead of the Left candidate (23.5%), with the FDP (!) candidate taking third spot (14.9%). Former DVU leader Gens, who the CDU couldn't take off their ballot, pulled in 13.3%.

  5. #65
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    Some campaign spots of the Berlin election.

    Couldn't find any for the Tierschutzpartei. Just imagine a PETA video for those. With more blood.
    Also couldn't find one for the Familienpartei (they had one for MV though...). Basically themed "children are awesome, make more of them".

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Mainstream Parties

    CDU

    ("Berlin used to be better when you voted for us, do it again")

    SPD

    (default "we are awesome when in government, keep us there")

    Left

    (same content as SPD)

    FDP (one of multiple videos, all 40-50 seconds)

    (some sort of anti-egalitarian crap in most of their videos)

    Greens

    ("vote for us to get rid of the communists in government")


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Leftwing-extremist Parties

    DKP (German Communist Party)

    (complaining about capitalists taking our money, same thing they've been complaining about for 50 years)

    PSG (one of a number of "position declaration videos")

    ("we need an Egypt-style mass revolution so that the worker class can finally rule this country")

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Rightwing-Extremist Parties

    NPD

    ("all crime in Berlin is committed by muslims")

    "Freiheit"

    (funny enough exactl same content as NPD, presented the same way too)

    "Deutsche Konservative"

    (bit different - basically "communists are evil, vote for us")

    BSo

    (standard LaRouche crap)

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Centrist Parties

    Pirates


    DP (Ecologic-Democratic Party)

    (don't know who to vote for? vote for us!)

    ddp (German Democratic Party)

    ("let's abandon all taxes except sales tax")

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Fun Parties

    PARTEI

    (they got some local rappers for that one)

    APPD ("Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany")

    (same thing every time - oddly enough they've lately stopped producing spots that TV channels refuse to broadcast)

    B ("Mountain Party") (starts at 0:20)

    (they claim that's the "censored" one - alluding to an APPD spot a couple years ago that a TV channel refused to broadcast because they considered it "obscene")

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by kato; 19 Sep 11, at 09:32.

  6. #66
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    Congrats to the Pirate Party, yarrrrrr . I like their focus on serious issues but I'm surprised that many people were willing to vote for them. Of the tv spots, I like the Die Linke one for being kinda upbeat and hipster at the same time. The Green one is like an iPhone ad and I don't have a clue what the FDP one was about. In my defence I have absolutely no German.
    Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
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  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by crooks View Post
    I don't have a clue what the FDP one was about. In my defence I have absolutely no German.
    The FDP ad (that one in particular) has this barely visible yellow banner near the end. It says "Why does Red/Green want to introduce a Berlin-wide 30 km/h speed limit? - Because then the difference in speed compared to the broken-down S-Bahn (commuter train) network isn't as noticable." That one's basically pro-car and pro-privatization, a traditional FDP position. Other FDP videos in that campaign e.g. denounce the comprehensive school system that Red/Red has introduced in Berlin.

    The Pirate ad is about corrupt police officers btw. And creating pirate channels to circumvent state censorship and interference. And some other stuff.

    The one by Die Linke basically says "Hey, it doesn't matter if you like us or not - you have to admit we're hip and cool and a bit different. Just like Berlin."

    As far as a nice clear statement of intentions goes the PSG one is particularly nice:
    "Just like in Egypt and the UK we're facing social upheaval and revolution. Whereas politicians strive to prevent this we see our role in furthering and guiding this revolution towards a mass revolution. Only when hundreds of thousands interfere in politics we can stop the criminal schemes of the ruling elite. But a revolution like in Egypt shall only be the beginning - it's the worker class that has to seize the political power in this country. [...]"
    Last edited by kato; 20 Sep 11, at 12:52.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Current German-wide political surveys, amalgated by me:
    One month later:

    CDU - 31.67%
    SPD - 28.67%
    Greens - 17.00%
    Pirates - 7.67%
    Left - 6.67%
    FDP - 3.33%

    (Red/Green: 45.67:46.00 in parliament - strong Pirates stealing the majority)

    Amalgated from: Forsa 10/06, Infratest 10/05, Emnid 10/02.

  9. #69
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    Amalgated current prognoses, updated - pretty much stable:

    CDU - 32.75%
    SPD - 29.75%
    Greens - 15.75%
    Pirates - 7.50%
    Left - 6.75%
    FDP - 3.50%

    (Red/Green: 45.5 : 47.0 in parliament)
    (Infratest 10/28, FGW 10/28, Forsa 10/26, GMS 10/24)

    The CDU is now trying to gain votes on its left edge by looking into introducing a minimum wage, a traditional SPD/Left position. Parts of SPD and Greens, mostly their left wings, are eyeing a possible Red/Red/Green alliance. Highranking members in the Left are already preparing common positions for such an alliance; these positions would be regulation of financial markets, higher pensions, a higher upper edge tax bracket (significantly lowered by right-wing Kohl government in the 80s and 90s) and reintroduction of a wealth tax (abandoned by Kohl government in 1995). Interestingly such things as a state-covered basic income, a long-term Left demand, aren't even mentioned in this regard.

  10. #70
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    Amalgated current prognoses, updated - CDU rising slightly, Pirates on the downward slope, otherwise stable.

    CDU - 35.66%
    SPD - 29.00%
    Greens - 15.66%
    Left - 6.33%
    Pirates - 6.00%
    FDP - 3.33%

    (Red/Green: 44.66 : 48.00 in parliament)
    (Infratest 01/05, FGW 01/13, Forsa 01/11)

    Rather interesting to have such stable results despite ongoing political crises over the past year.

  11. #71
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    Updated for February:

    CDU/CSU - 36.8%
    SPD - 27.2%
    Greens - 14.8%
    Pirates - 7.2%
    Left - 7.2%
    FDP - 2.8%
    Other - 4.0%

    Current Options:

    Grand Coalition : ~68.7% of seats
    Black-Green : ~55.4% of seats
    Red-Red-Green : ~52.8% of seats
    Red-Green-Pirates : ~52.8% of seats

    Amalgated from: Forsa 02/22, FGW 02/10, Infratest 02/17, GMS 02/23, Emnid 02/19

    Next state election is Schleswig-Holstein in May, where the full impact of the FDP fail will first be felt. They're currently estimated to lose 80% of the votes they got there in 2009.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Next state election is Schleswig-Holstein in May, where the full impact of the FDP fail will first be felt. They're currently estimated to lose 80% of the votes they got there in 2009.
    Next one is actually Saarland in March, since the Jamaica Coalition (CDU/FDP/Greens) there failed and the CDU is now in an interim minority government.

    Projections sees only four parties in parliament in Saarland:
    - SPD : 39.5% of seats
    - CDU : 38.5% of seats
    - Left : 16.5% of seats
    - Pirates : 5.5% of seats

    Meaning that one'll be a Grand Coalition - unless the SPD finally recognizes what's good for it.

    Schleswig-Holstein also has four parties, plus one due to special circumstances:
    - SPD : 36.7% of seats
    - CDU : 36.7% of seats
    - Greens : 17.7% of seats
    - Pirates : 5.5% of seats
    - SSW : 3.3% of seats (Danish minority party)

    That one'll be either SPD/Greens or CDU/Greens - after all with the rather conservative Greens you never know.

    Next election after that is only in January 2013 - in Lower Saxony, where current projections most closely mirror those currently at federal level, albeit with a stronger SPD and Greens, and less share for Pirates and Left. Could be close enough to be enough for a Red/Green coalition (and Lower Saxony is one of Germany's conservative states).

  13. #73
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    The Red-Green minority government (holding 90 out of 181 seats) in Germany's most populous state Northrhine-Westfalia (NRW) just intentionally collapsed the parliament to get new elections. They pretty much proposed a budget that they knew the opposition wouldn't agree to, and as planned didn't get the one opposition vote they would have needed to pass it. CDU, SPD and Greens now call for new elections.

    These new elections, to be held within two months, will lead to SPD and Greens getting a solid majority in the state since the FDP and Left will be kicked out of parliament. Pirates may make it in. CDU supports new elections in hopes of getting the Greens on their side.

    Current prognosis (infratest dimap) at state level for NRW, last election results from May 2010 in parentheses:

    getting into parliament
    SPD - 35% (34.5%)
    CDU - 35% (34.6%)
    Greens - 17% (12.1%)
    Pirates - 5% (1.6%)

    out of parliament
    Left - 3% (5.6%)
    FDP - 2% (6.7%)
    Others - 3% (6.5%)

  14. #74
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    man, how many other countries have got a party named "Pirates" that get 5% of seats. who would have thought it would be germany.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  15. #75
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    Updated numbers (the ones above are from February), with numbers from yesterday from yougov in parentheses (no one gives a shit about yougov surveys though anyway):

    SPD - 38% (yougov: 33%)
    CDU - 34% (yougov: 33%)
    Greens - 14% (yougov: 17%)
    Pirates - 5% (yougov: 7%)
    Left - 4% (yougov: 5%)
    FDP - 2% (yougov: 2%)

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    man, how many other countries have got a party named "Pirates" that get 5% of seats. who would have thought it would be germany.
    The Pirates got 7.3% in Sweden in the last European Parliament elections. That's it.

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