Page 4 of 13 FirstFirst 12345678910111213 LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 185

Thread: Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

  1. #46
    Administrator Tarek Morgen's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Feb 07
    Location
    Kassel
    Posts
    4,417
    Yes, the numbers for both DCU & SPD are rather low compared to the past. The Difference is that the SPD lost its leftwing under Schröder which united itself with the Post-socalist from east germany to found Die Linke (the left). So while the SPD has to deal with competition from the left the CDU/CSU does not and until that changes it would be very surprising to see the SPD ahead.

  2. #47
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Jan 06
    Location
    DPRK, Demokratik People's Republik of Kalifornia
    Posts
    23,772
    Ahhhh...too complicated for my simple American brain to handle.

    So...you hard working Germans would continue to bail out the lazy Greeks?
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  3. #48
    Administrator Tarek Morgen's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Feb 07
    Location
    Kassel
    Posts
    4,417
    Short answer: Most likely yes, while bitching about it.

    (Though it is less about Greece, but more about the Euro-zone itself where the majority of our exports go)

  4. #49
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
    Join Date
    25 Aug 08
    Location
    Skopje, Macedonia
    Posts
    13,606
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarek Morgen View Post
    Yes, the numbers for both DCU & SPD are rather low compared to the past. The Difference is that the SPD lost its leftwing under Schröder which united itself with the Post-socalist from east germany to found Die Linke (the left). So while the SPD has to deal with competition from the left the CDU/CSU does not and until that changes it would be very surprising to see the SPD ahead.
    Where do the Greens stand?

    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Ahhhh...too complicated for my simple American brain to handle.

    So...you hard working Germans would continue to bail out the lazy Greeks?
    The Greeks feel the only one saved will be the German bankers
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  5. #50
    Administrator Tarek Morgen's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Feb 07
    Location
    Kassel
    Posts
    4,417
    Where do the Greens stand?
    poll-wise? around 20% Politcal wise? They usually ally with the SPD. There have been cooperations with the conseratives regional and state level, but you won't see one anytime soon on the federal level. Though the conseratives will have to move towards the green sooner or later when their tradional partner, the liberals (FDP) don't recover.

  6. #51
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
    Join Date
    25 Aug 08
    Location
    Skopje, Macedonia
    Posts
    13,606
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarek Morgen View Post
    poll-wise? around 20% Politcal wise? They usually ally with the SPD. There have been cooperations with the conseratives regional and state level, but you won't see one anytime soon on the federal level. Though the conseratives will have to move towards the green sooner or later when their tradional partner, the liberals (FDP) don't recover.
    I meant on bailout
    Remember Fischer sided with Schröder and doubted something dramatically changed in that regard.

    You are correct, CDU should seek deeper cooperation with the Greens as they seem like the key for whatever next Government you will have.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  7. #52
    Administrator Tarek Morgen's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Feb 07
    Location
    Kassel
    Posts
    4,417
    mostly for. General the biggist opposition can be found within the government coalition.

  8. #53
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    3,662
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Ahhhh...too complicated for my simple American brain to handle.
    It's even more complicated when you consider that most of the parties are very widespread on the political board.

    There are only two parties with a rather narrow political band of supporters, and that's the SPD (slightly off-center to the left) and the Left (positioned as the left edge to that*, after having taken over the left wing of the SPD). The CDU hold a wide band to the right of the center, the CSU is even more broad - with the right wing positioned right of the CDU and the left wing positioned at SPD level. And the Greens are literally all over the board from maoists and marxists all the way to interventionists, conservative provincial NIMBYs and even a handful pseudo-libertarians...

    * technically the Left Party is a mix of one-third postcommunists and two-thirds social democrats. Both history-wise and by actual composition. Comparable to the 1920s USPD party that sat inbetween SPD and KPD back then politically.

  9. #54
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    3,662
    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Remember Fischer sided with Schröder and doubted something dramatically changed in that regard.
    The current SPD and Greens don't have much to do with the 1998 SPD and Greens. Schröder was Third Way in the worst way (i.e. considered right-wing edge of the SPD), Fischer and his cronies were Realos.

    The current SPD leadership is more from its center wing with some left leanings, still probably a bit to the right of its voter base; the current Green leadership represents both Realos and Fundis (the two ideological wings of the Greens), and its current base are mostly NIMBYs from either side.

  10. #55
    An t-aimiréal chléthúil Senior Contributor crooks's Avatar
    Join Date
    17 Oct 06
    Location
    Baile Átha Cliath/Dublin, again.
    Posts
    2,490
    Surely if polls stay anywhere near what they're at now the next gov will be SPD-Green? They're polling near 50% and if the FDP are knocked out of parliament (as looks likely) will take a majority, no?

    Plus if I remember 33% was like the worst result in CDU history so 32.5% is nothing to be bragging about in any case. It looks like Sarkozy (and the UMP majority in the National Assembly) could be gone in France, Berlusconi in Italy, all the big countries bar Spain are moving left. Mind you one could argue the big problem for governments in Europe now is being the incumbent.
    Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
    - John Stuart Mill.

  11. #56
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    3,662
    Quote Originally Posted by crooks View Post
    They're polling near 50% and if the FDP are knocked out of parliament (as looks likely) will take a majority, no?
    Germany has a large amount of tactical voting, especially in the conservative camp - i.e. a certain share of CDU supporters voting for the FDP instead of the CDU to "help" them. This tactical voting is of a large enough extent that the FDP could be kept in parliament. Also, the CDU excels at mobilizing certain voter groups when necessary - they're well-known for emptying out senior citizen homes, carting the people to the voting booths (though, due to voter structure, this also bring votes for the Left).

    While this is worked into surveys to a certain extent in particular the tactical voting can screw numbers. What's decisive there is poll results ahead of the election; if the FDP polls at say 6% they're actually more likely to not get tactical votes and fall short than if they poll at 4%.

  12. #57
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    3,662
    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Minor changes possible (though nothing of relevancy) as one district will only be voting in two weeks due to the death of the 70-yo CDU candidate there.
    The postponed Rügen I district election has suddenly gotten quite interesting: Due to the way indirect mandates are distributed in MV depending on the result this could cost the NPD one of its five designate mandates.

    In order to achieve this, the Greens will need to get at least 20% in this district. The SPD also needs a good result in order for the mandate to be redistributed to be a NPD mandate, not one of theirs. The Left has already called on its supporters to "lend their vote" to the Greens, which might be enough (considering Left and Greens got 26.8% together at state level).

    The CDU in the district - for whom the election was postponed, since their candidate died - is in quite a bind too. Their substitute candidate has been revealed to be a former DVU leader. The DVU itself merged into the NPD last year. The CDU has sacked him for this reason in the meantime, and will now not field a direct candidate in the district. They are calling on their voters to vote for "a democratic party" with their first vote (CDU speak for "SPD, FDP or Greens"), they're not giving away their second vote - for the indirect mandate - though.

  13. #58
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    3,662
    Amalgated survey for Berlin:

    SPD - 30.83%
    CDU - 21.66%
    Greens - 19.16%
    Left - 11.33%
    Pirates - 7.0%
    FDP - 2.66%
    Others - 7.33%

    (Info GmbH 09/15, Infratest 09/09, FGW 09/09)

    This would be almost exactly 2006 results for SPD and CDU (30.8% and 21.3% respectively), 50% more for Greens (13.1%), slightly less for left (13.4%) and only one third of their 2006 result for the FDP (7.6%).

  14. #59
    Administrator Tarek Morgen's Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Feb 07
    Location
    Kassel
    Posts
    4,417
    Might be time to find a new title for this thread...looking at all the fights within the coalition. It is amaziong how hell bend on self destruction this government seems to considering what a general election would have for consequences.

  15. #60
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    05 Sep 06
    Posts
    3,662
    Wouldn't that rather be a topic for a separate thread?

    This one about the population voting the coalition out of parliaments slowly but surely, another about the coalition self-destructing anyway.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Angela Merkel declares death of German multiculturalism
    By Parihaka in forum International Politics
    Replies: 22
    Last Post: 18 Oct 10,, 23:04
  2. German Troops in Afghanistan Wearing "I fight for Merkel" badges
    By citanon in forum Operation Enduring Freedom and Af-Pak
    Replies: 39
    Last Post: 29 Apr 10,, 05:03
  3. CDU wins German elections
    By Ironduke in forum International Politics
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 28 Sep 09,, 23:05
  4. Skier Suffers Exposure
    By Knaur Amarsh in forum World Affairs Board Pub
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 07 Jan 09,, 04:30
  5. German elections 2005
    By SloMax in forum International Politics
    Replies: 31
    Last Post: 19 Sep 05,, 00:41

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •