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Thread: Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    ok, if renewable is going to replace nuclear then there is no difference in fuel imported from abroad. So it is clear, this decision makes no difference to the Russians.
    In fact, Libya has pushed investment in Russia in that regard. Wintershall just bought into South Stream after the federal government assured they would provide financial cover for their (about 2 billions) investment in Libya.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    never, right or if it did very low INES rating.
    All "accidents" so far were INES Zero rated. The problem somewhat is the sheer amount of these INES-Zero-rated accidents.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    NIMBY (not in my back yard) and raus to nuclear power in germany
    The Greens are the ultimate NIMBY party (nowadays), not just in regard to nuclear power. That's why they appeal to a large spectrum of voters in their 40s to 60s, not just to young people.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    What are the renewable replacements, wind + hydro ?
    Wind, sun, hydro and geothermal. Wind and sun doubled from current, hydro pretty much staying the same, geothermal introduced at low levels by 2020 (they're drilling now, the problem is that in 50% of all drills here in the region they found oil or gas pockets... ).

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    About population declining, germany is going to remain #1 in the EU for a long time. France & Uk are not going to overtake germany.
    France is currently estimated to overtake Germany around 2050. Projections for population in Germany reach to 2060 currently (always 50 years into the future).

    Germany has not only a declining natural factor (less births than death) but also a negative migration ratio - there are more people leaving than coming here.

    And the population includes non-Germans of course. The estimation is that Baden-Württemberg alone needs to triple its immigrant numbers in order to keep the population constant.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Oh, read in my daily today that german ppl were unhappy about merkel's decision in Libya, this was a surprise for me.
    The opposition - that is the two parties that won on sunday - are pro-intervention regarding foreign affairs. They've led us into both Kosovo and Afghanistan before. Apparently people liked that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You mention BW only, does this mean there are different systems elsewhere in the country or all germany uses just one system.
    Each German state uses its own system, with some of them being rather extremely different from others. The single-vote system in BaWü is pretty much singular.
    In RLP on sunday they used their own two-vote system in which 51 seats are given through direct mandate and minimum 50 seats are given through either state-level or province-level party lists. That one is pretty close to the federal voting system for the Bundestag, although there are some differences.

    Voting systems not only differ between states, but also depend on the level of election. In municipal elections in Hessen (were also on Sunday), the voters had one vote for each seat in their municipal constituency and one vote for each seat in their administrative district, with each candidate garnering up to three votes from each voter... well, to put it simply, in the city of Darmstadt last sunday, each voter had iirc 93 votes to hand out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Also can you explain why there is need to do this 'adjusting' ?
    What is broken with the current system and that this new system fixes.
    The adjusting is needed to combine a first-past-the-post representation with a semblance of a proportional representation system. It's also been screwed a bit over the decades so it favours the winning party more (BaWü had the CDU in government for 53 years, so they tried to secure that they'd win again and again...).
    The "new" part is that [Sainte Lague] is used to distribute seats from vote numbers. It used to be [d'Hondt], which favoured the party with the most votes even more. d'Hondt was used in most German states' voting systems since the 50s, Sainte Lague is being introduced slowly as it's considered "fairer" to smaller parties.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Hmm, didn't Netanyahu say PR system is dangerous, a few months back.
    PR has to be treated carefully - i.e. it needs certain checks - to avoid having dozens of small parties in parliament. In Germany the 5% hurdle was introduced to prevent just that situation, which occured in the Weimar Republic and also was still a factor in the 1950s federal republic. Of course there also need to be checks to avoid excluding parties just based on this - in Germany, e.g. in some states parties of ethnic minorities are exempt, at federal level there's a clause that says if you get three direct mandates, you get your federal ballot share in seats even if you don't get 5% in total.

    As a whole, the concept of PR in Germany has worked quite well for the past 55-60 years. From a German perspective, it's considered good that - usually - coalitions have to be formed to form a government; having a minority partner "moderates" the majority partner to some extent.

    Quote Originally Posted by crooks View Post
    Loads of European Green Parties are like that, I always thought the German Greens (alongside the French and Scandinavian ones) were watermelons, though maybe regional parties vary too?
    There have been several CDU/Green coalitions in the recent past (one just failed in Hamburg), including one CDU/FDP/Green coalition currently at state level (in Saarland). The option was also peddled for Baden-Württemberg in the last two years, but CDU politics last year successfully alienated the Greens (and the voters).

    At municipal level it gets even more complicated, because each municipal green party is essentially an autonomous entity. Some lean towards conservative, some towards centrist-left, some towards ultra-left. In my town we even have two Green parties now (in the city council - one centrist, one left!) after some of their guys and gals had a personal spat

    Quote Originally Posted by crooks View Post
    And looking at that electoral system makes me cry, even though we use the supposedly extremely complex Single-Transferable Vote.
    Our municipal voting systems are far more complicated than that one. And by far more i really mean far more.
    Last edited by kato; 29 Mar 11, at 00:05.

  2. #17
    Administrator Tarek Morgen's Avatar
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    Like expected, Brüderle resigned, but only as chairman of the Rhineland-Palatinate FDP, but stays as Merkel's Minister. Westerwelle still hangs on to all his positions, despite getting once more heavy critic from within his own ranks...but should he resign, I doubt it will be before the next state election in May. Another defeat (which is likely at this point) would taint whoever would succed him as federal chairman of his party.

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    Bremen? They'll probably fail to get into parliament there too. Last survey by Forsa sees them at 4%, with a solid red/green majority coming in at 60%.

    Next ones after that are MVP and Berlin in September. Way it's going i could see another Green-led Red/Green in Berlin with FDP definitely out, and possibly another Red/Red in MVP considering they're polling pretty good together right now (about 6 seats lead). 2012 is only Schleswig-Holstein iirc?

  4. #19
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    Schleswig-Holstein HAS to have election this year, but Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony) could have one as well, but the date might also fall into early 2013 (unless they announced the date and I missed it). They might actually able to win that state (or rather avoid another embarrassment, but there are no current polls and there is still too much time to be certain.

    This won't be a good year for Merkel. It is really impressive that government manages to scare away voters in such high numbers despite goods news from the economy and labour market (even more so when you compare it too the rest of europe). I dare to claim that she misses Steinmeier every time she has to deal with Westerwelle at the moment *g*

  5. #20
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    Current situation with regard to the Bundesrat below (with elections before next federal election marked). Merkel would need to get minimum 35 votes for a Bundesrat majority; it's pretty much impossible for her to do so before the next federal election.

    Government (CDU/CSU/FDP) (23 votes):

    6 votes - Bavaria (Blue-White/Yellow)
    5 votes - Hesse (Black/Yellow)
    4 votes - Saxony (Black/Yellow)
    4 votes - Lower Saxony (Black/Yellow) - election Spring 2013
    4 votes - Schleswig-Holstein (Black/Yellow) - election during 2012

    Opposition (SPD/Greens/Left) (30 votes):

    6 votes - Baden-Württemberg (Green/Red, forming)
    6 votes - Northrhine-Westfalia (Red/Green) - possible reelection
    4 votes - Rhineland-Palatinate (Red/Green, forming)
    4 votes - Berlin (Red/Dark-Red) - election Fall 2011
    4 votes - Brandenburg (Red/Dark-Red)
    3 votes - Bremen (Red/Green) - election Spring 2011
    3 votes - Hamburg (Red)

    Neutral (14 votes):

    4 votes - Saxony-Anhalt (Grand)
    4 votes - Thuringia (Grand)
    3 votes - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Grand) - election Fall 2011
    3 votes - Saarland (Schwampel)

    Of those with elections above, current surveys don't show CDU/FDP combined above 35% anywhere, meaning zero chances. Lower Saxony probably more, no current survey available.
    Last edited by kato; 30 Mar 11, at 22:42.

  6. #21
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    And there goes Westerwelle...well at least as chairman of the liberals. While he won't resign, he will not run again in the election, which is already next Month. He wants to keep his job as foreign minister though.

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    What's the successor selection down to now - choice between the asian guy (Rösler), the kid (Lindner) and the left-winger (Schnarri) iirc?

  8. #23
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    I can't think of anyone else, but if they pick Rösler tehy have to get him another job in the Cabinet. Having your chairman do the job of health minister is not good for the polls (then again foreign minister used to be the perfect job. You get a lot of screen time, usually don't have to make unpopular decisions because everything that is really important will be decided by the chancellor anyway...how did Westerwelle manage to screw that up so badly?)

    Lindner would be a very young choice and Scharenberger is not that popular with many in the party. Though her chances might actually increase due being left and one few FDP-names that actually still somewhat stand for civil rights. If the Liberals really want a change of direction she would be the best choice for that, albeit not with a guarantee for success.

    My money stays on Rösler and also that the actual politics won't really change much, except in name and tone. With Westerwelle still screwing around in the foreign ministry and Rösler already unpopular with most due his health reform plans I am sure the rest of the year will be a weird mix of comedy and tragedy when it comes to the FDP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarek Morgen View Post
    I am sure the rest of the year will be a weird mix of comedy and tragedy when it comes to the FDP.
    Isn't it always?

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Isn't it always?
    Well that they make the Greens look like a stable and reliable coalition partner is still rather new *g*

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    And now Westerwelle has dropped the next title, that of Vice Chancellor...

  12. #27
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    Though that one rather caries symbolic than actual might. Rösler seems to stay the favourit but even if he wins he won't be able to rule the FDP in an one-man show like Westerwelle did.

    Local newspaper in the satire section:
    Westerwelle plans for the future: "Maybe I should start parachuting"

  13. #28
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    This just keeps better:

    Rösler will be the chairman, but Brüderle wants to keep the economy ministry. If Rösler has to stay in his current ministry it will be so much harder for the FDP to rebound. Now there best hope is to kick Westerwelle out of his last job and make Rösler foreign minister.

    And the latest polls (forsa)..FDP 3%, CDU 30%, Greens 28%..sure the latest surge is to a lage part based on the disaster on Japan...but the idea that at the moment a green chancellor would be possible..

  14. #29
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    And not to forget - not just 28% for the Greens, but also absolute majority (51%) for Green/Red for the first time in a poll since... 1997?

  15. #30
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    the sad thing is.I actually like the FDP somewhat..or rather I like what they should be. Not saying that I would vote or even join them, but there should be a place in politics for a party that represents what are...at least in theory...the ideals of the FDP. That they fail so badly at doing it themselves is one the whole a pretty big loss for our politics imho.

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