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Thread: Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

  1. #181
    Senior Contributor Toby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Schulz has given his first major interview, to Spiegel; political platform for his campaign is mostly on social justice, pretty much an eat the rich thing. Mostly job market reforms and tax increases for the rich, some stuff on social housing and public investment into housing.

    He also announced that Sigmar Gabriel, who's hoping to continue his new foreign affairs minister post beyond the election, would have to look for a new job. Because Schulz is explicitly aiming for chancellorship, not playing minority partner to Merkel.


    Way it looks these days Le Pen will score first place in the first election round at around 30%, ahead of Macron as second at around 20% - and then she will get completely destroyed by him in the second round since around 60% of French utterly abhor Front National.
    Certain poles have put them as high as 40%....A few more atrocities and that could rapidly change. If I was a betting man I'd put money on it

  2. #182
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    I like Schulz, he was good as President. Apparently speaks five languages. a Berlusconi hated him. Likened him to a Nazi Prison guard. Wonder what BoJo thinks of him?

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marko View Post
    I like Schulz, he was good as President. Apparently speaks five languages. a Berlusconi hated him. Likened him to a Nazi Prison guard. Wonder what BoJo thinks of him?
    You know him personally?

  4. #184
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    Next state election in Germany is Saarland next sunday.

    The Schulz effect has a likely interesting outcome over there: Right now in surveys, clear political camps of equivalent support have reemerged - CDU and AfD on the Right and SPD and Left on the Left, with everyone else likely out of parliament.

    Last four surveys, amalgated:
    • CDU : 35.5% - 21 seats (+2)
    • SPD : 33.0% - 20 seats (+3)
    • Left : 12.5% - 7 seats (-2)
    • AfD : 6.6% - 3 seats (+3)
    • Greens : 4.4% - 0 seats (-2)
    • FDP : 3.8% - 0 seats (0)
    • Others: 4.2% - 0 seats (-4; Pirates)

    FGW 03/17, Infratest 03/16, Forsa 03/09, INSA 03/07

    Saarland is the home country of Oskar Lafontaine, the guy who split off the left wing of the SPD and joined the former east-German state party to form the Left. As such they perform exceptionally well for a western state. Lafontaine himself was minister-president of Saarland from 1985 to 1998, the only time the state was run by the SPD since it was annexed by Germany in 1956.

    The state is currently ruled by a Grand Coalition under CDU leadership, formed after the same CDU minister-president previously crashed a Jamaica coalition (CDU/Green/FDP - Black/Green/Yellow) after only 10 months.
    Last edited by kato; 21 Mar 17, at 18:32.

  5. #185
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    It's interesting to for once see an election again in which the AfD pretty much plays no role.

    That's a Sarre speciality though. Their local AfD chapter is considered rightwing-extremist by the AfD itself - the federal group has tried to dissolve the Sarre AfD before, for too much integration with the neonazi NPD. In surveys, the AfD in Saarland scores the lowest of any state AfD chapter in Germany.

    First polls incoming in 7 minutes.

  6. #186
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    Schleswig-Holstein state election today.

    Amalgated survey from last five polls:

    CDU - 32.0% (+1.2%) - 24 seats (+2)
    SPD - 30.4% (+0.0%) - 23 seats (+1)
    Greens - 12.0% (-1.2%) - 9 seats (-1)
    FDP - 9.5% (+1.3%) - 7 seats (+1)
    AfD - 5.6% (+5.6%) - 4 seats (+4)
    Left - 4.6% (+2.3%) - 0 seats (-0)
    SSW - 3.2% (-1.4%) - 2 seats* (-1)
    Others - 2.7% (-7.8%) - 0 seats (-6)

    * Danish minority party not subject to 5% rule.

    Majority needs 35 out of 69 seats, which the current coalition exactly holds.
    -> SPD/Greens/SSW - 34 seats (-1)
    -> CDU/FDP - 31 seats (+3)

    => nominally predicting a Grand Coalition unless the SPD gets its act together. FDP leadership has already offered a SPD/Green/FDP or CDU/Green/FDP coalition though, so it'd be more likely one of those.

    Results in two hours.
    Last edited by kato; 07 May 17, at 15:22.

  7. #187
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    6 pm prognosis:


    [ZDF]

    CDU - 34.0% - 26 seats
    SPD - 27.0% - 20 seats
    Greens - 12.5% - 9 seats
    FDP - 10.5% - 8 seats
    AfD - 5.5% - 4 seats
    Left - 3.5% - 0 seats
    SSW - 3.0% - 2 seats
    Others - 4.0% - 0 seats

    [ARD]

    CDU - 33%
    SPD - 26%
    Greens - 13.5%
    FDP - 11.5%
    AfD - 5.5%
    Left - 3.5%
    SSW - 3.5%
    Others - 4.5%

  8. #188
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    Final result

    CDU - 32.0% () - 25 seats (+3)
    SPD - 27.2% (-3.2) - 21 seats (-1)
    Greens - 12.9% (-0.3) - 10 seats
    FDP - 11.5% (+3.3) - 9 seats (+3)
    AfD - 5.9% (+5.9) - 5 seats (+5)
    Left - 3.8% (+1.5) - 0 seats
    SSW - 3.3% (-1.3) - 3 seats
    Others - 3.4% (-3.7) - 0 seats (-6)

    4 overhang mandates generated; required for majority 37 seats.

    Previous government (SPD/Green/SSW) - 34 seats

    Possible coalitions
    CDU/SPD - 46 seats
    CDU/FDP/Green - 44 seats
    SPD/FDP/Green - 40 seats

  9. #189
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    Next state election is on sunday, in Lower Saxony.

    Will be interesting insofar as the result pretty much hinges on whether the Left makes it into parliament - they're hovering around the 5% hurdle. If they make it in and the SPD shows the strength surveys this week there's a possibility for a Red-Red-Green government (latest projection shows that to have a single-seat majority over CDU, FDP and AfD).

    Final results of the federal election three weeks ago within the state were:
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    FPTP votes at top, PR votes at bottom (the difference shows that e.g. half of all FDP voters voted tactically).

    AfD is now projected at 7% in the state, slightly weaker than they performed there in the federal election (9.1%). SPD is considered in the last two weeks to have shown significant gains, possible with up to 34% (vs 27.4%).

  10. #190
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    6 pm, First prognosis from exit polls for Lower Saxony:

    - CDU : 35.0% (-1.0%)
    - SPD : 37.5% (+4.9%) (!!)
    - Greens : 8.5% (-5.2%)
    - FDP : 7.0% (-2.9%)
    - AFD : 5.5% (+5.5%)
    - Left : 4.8% (+1.7%)

    The elections in Lower Saxony were prompted by a Green representative switching her colors to CDU, hence the punishment for them.
    The SPD result is considered rather surprising given they were polling at around 32% up to a week ago. Other results are largely in line with recent surveys, although the AfD performed considerably lower than predicted.
    Last edited by kato; 15 Oct 17, at 17:13.

  11. #191
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    ARD is now floating a prognosis that would give Red-Green an exact one-seat majority (with SPD at 37.7, CDU at 33.7, Greens at 8.8, FDP at 7.21 and AfD at 6.0). Red-Green previously ruled the state with exactly that one-seat majority.

    However Lower Saxony does have a rather complicated seat distribution system which might make for surprises all the way to the end - either way.

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