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Merkel suffers historic defeat in German state elections

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  • Sobering reading.. About Brexit, but mainly about the atmosphere in Germany to it, so I think it's not too far off the topic.

    http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/...seesbrexit.pdf

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    • Originally posted by zara View Post
      Well if that's Merkels downfall, Schulz seems like a decent sucessor. I don't know a lot about him but he's certainly no Le Pen or Wilders.

      I think it may be in the UK's benefit for the CDU to stay in power, from what little I know Merkel might seek a calmer, non-confrontational approach to brexit. We need cool heads for the next few years.
      You mean she'll actually say something meaningful. Like yeh ok we need to rethink the EU from the top down.....make it democratic etc ..?

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      • One of the first things Merkel said in response to the referendum result was 'there's no need to be mean to Britain'.
        One of the first things Schulz said was 'The regretful decision to leave the EU will hurt the leave voters more than any'. (or something like that)

        The UK is leaving, fine. Let's do it with the minimum of resentment, please?

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        • Originally posted by zara View Post
          One of the first things Merkel said in response to the referendum result was 'there's no need to be mean to Britain'.
          One of the first things Schulz said was 'The regretful decision to leave the EU will hurt the leave voters more than any'. (or something like that)

          The UK is leaving, fine. Let's do it with the minimum of resentment, please?
          Hardly a big thinker.

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          • Alright Einstein, who do you prefer and why?

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            • Originally posted by zara View Post
              No chance of a shock AFD win? The world really needs Germany to keep it's sanity in 2017 while the rest of us lose it!
              The AfD never scores more than 15% in polls. The danger about "shock AFD wins" at state level is whether some more rightwing local CDU leadership tries for a CDU/AFD coalition as a number of them have been accused of. Hasn't had a majority anywhere yet though - precisely because of those accusations.

              Originally posted by zara View Post
              Well if that's Merkels downfall, Schulz seems like a decent sucessor. I don't know a lot about him but he's certainly no Le Pen or Wilders.

              I think it may be in the UK's benefit for the CDU to stay in power, from what little I know Merkel might seek a calmer, non-confrontational approach to brexit. We need cool heads for the next few years.
              Schulz is pretty much Merkel's guarantee that the Grand Coalition will stay in power, but within a future coalition he'll be a much less compromising partner with a sharper social democrat profile than Gabriel.

              There have been surveys polling support for Merkel and Schulz in a direct confrontation - if chancellors were elected directly -, in which they are pretty much tied (39:38 in favour of Merkel). Against Gabriel Merkel would fare far better on the same question (47:19).

              The SPD has been ramping up for the campaign pretty offensively since mid-last-year; the first step was to tentatively announce target numbers of 30+ percent (which went from "we could get that" back then to "we aim for that" now), the second was to get Schulz as a known core-profile politician back to the federal level, the third was to move the SPD back into a position where they aren't just seen as a minority partner that doesn't matter much ("if we get those 30+% we have a reasonable chance to field the next chancellor", from SPD chairman Oppermann), the fourth step was to define and delineate relationships to other parties (such as laying out which parts of Left Party politics are no-gos for coalitions - mostly the Left's denouncement of the EU and NATO), the fifth step now is to go from this and have Schulz step forward.

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              • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
                I kind of think you just made a great case for why the EU should break up right here. Seems all the member countries are pissed off at each other for one reason or the other. Country A is upset Country B won't take refugees from outside the region. Country B is upset Country A is trying to tell it what to do. Goes on and on to Country C and Country D and...

                I would love to see everyone in Family Court in front of Judge Judy. Having already gone through Divorce Court and can see those bad feelings now.

                By the way what is it with Tommies and "your kind" of people? I might call Tankie a Tommie as we have a pint or two in a pub and banter back and forth. In that context it is all in jest. This context is different. I am always interested in what you write but that harks back to other times where Jerry was also used.
                Here ya go krauts , huns / jerries , losers .

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                • Originally posted by zara View Post
                  Alright Einstein, who do you prefer and why?
                  Ah recognition, Thank you!
                  Merkel of course. She just needs to wake up and realise that she is the one who can stop our continent from slipping into a suicide...What happened to German Pragmatism????

                  or is there another agenda??

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                  • Originally posted by tankie View Post
                    Here ya go krauts , huns / jerries , losers .

                    [ATTACH]43214[/ATTACH]
                    Looks like we'll have to make it a hatrick the way this set of W-nkers are performing!

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                    • Federal level:

                      All surveys polling after Schulz declared candidacy see the SPD at or above their 2013 election result of 25.7% btw, typically in the 26-28% region - the highest since the last election. This means gains of +5 to +6% compared to the week before and +7 to +8% compared to the beginning of the year. Gains are taken from across the spectrum - half left, half right - with the CDU's losses somewhat mitigated by the AfD crumbling back down to 11-12%. Federal election is on September 24th.

                      State level:

                      Only election before the next federal election is Northrhine-Westphalia (NRW), in May. Will be pretty interesting because as the largest state - with near one quarter of Germany's population - it's pretty much a trial election for the federal one.

                      There aren't really any recent polls for the state yet. What's pretty much clear so far is that the Pirates will drop out of parliament there while the AfD and possibly the Left will join it. The CDU under Merkel in last year's surveys tended to have considerable gains on top of the AfD, hence signifying an extreme right-wing swing in the population with that prediction having influenced polls at all levels. Pre-Schulz CDU and SPD were pretty much tied (both at around 31-32%) in polls, which was the major factor in why the SPD was polling so low at federal level (the SPD scoring less than high 30s or low 40s in NRW is almost unheard of since the 60s - the only time they tied with CDU at 34% each they formed a minority government and new elections were forced "coincidentally" once they were back at their normal level). The CDU's gains have to be seen in the context of the last election in 2012 being their lowest result since 1947 in the state.

                      Schulz' candidacy will probably have interesting effects on NRW too; he's actively campaigning there right now since he announced his candidacy for chancellor, mostly trying to appeal to the lower-middle-class worker ghettos that run the place around there (if you want international comparisons, NRW compares closer to West Virginia than Detroit - except the workers traditionally vote proper red). The questioning he's facing from the party base there tends to focus around him being far too right-wing for local tastes too. The problem for the NRW SPD is that their own minister-president Hannelore Kraft was an ardent supporter of Gabriel's wing, and she's now somewhat left in the cold and urgently trying to mend fences.

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                      • Originally posted by kato View Post
                        There have been surveys polling support for Merkel and Schulz in a direct confrontation - if chancellors were elected directly -, in which they are pretty much tied (39:38 in favour of Merkel).
                        Last poll on this question before Schulz' actual candidacy was tied at 41:41. First poll on the same question afterwards now sees Schulz well ahead of Merkel at 50:34.

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                        • Originally posted by kato View Post
                          Last poll on this question before Schulz' actual candidacy was tied at 41:41. First poll on the same question afterwards now sees Schulz well ahead of Merkel at 50:34.
                          And what are Schulz politics?
                          To the left or right?

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                          • Originally posted by Toby View Post
                            And what are Schulz politics?
                            To the left or right?
                            Most international media (and German conservatives) consider him "left", but he's really from the right wing of the social democrats. Same ilk as Schröder was, though a bit more grounded in social democrat tradition. And perhaps a bit more anticapitalist, but that's mostly how he sees himself.

                            I'd personally say he'd probably get along well with Macron if he wins in France.

                            Deutsche Welle article in English with charts etc:
                            http://www.dw.com/en/schulz-overtake...lor/a-37389601

                            On Schulz' campaign in particular:
                            http://www.dw.com/en/show-of-hands-a...any/a-37391493

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                            • Macron ?? France is not looking good, politically speaking.....People need to wake up because if Le penn gets in then its GAME OVER!... All this could have been avoided!

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                              • Schulz has given his first major interview, to Spiegel; political platform for his campaign is mostly on social justice, pretty much an eat the rich thing. Mostly job market reforms and tax increases for the rich, some stuff on social housing and public investment into housing.

                                He also announced that Sigmar Gabriel, who's hoping to continue his new foreign affairs minister post beyond the election, would have to look for a new job. Because Schulz is explicitly aiming for chancellorship, not playing minority partner to Merkel.

                                Originally posted by Toby View Post
                                Macron ?? France is not looking good, politically speaking.....People need to wake up because if Le penn gets in then its GAME OVER!... All this could have been avoided!
                                Way it looks these days Le Pen will score first place in the first election round at around 30%, ahead of Macron as second at around 20% - and then she will get completely destroyed by him in the second round since around 60% of French utterly abhor Front National.

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