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What happens if we fail in Libya?

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  • What happens if we fail in Libya?

    Seems like we might get millitarily involved.

    I'm not all that convinced that, even with the best of intentions, we will not fail.

    After Khadaffi is gone the whole winning the peace thing can prove to be quite difficult.

    This is not an automatic succes IMHO.

  • #2
    Originally posted by FJV View Post
    Seems like we might get millitarily involved.

    I'm not all that convinced that, even with the best of intentions, we will not fail.

    After Khadaffi is gone the whole winning the peace thing can prove to be quite difficult.

    This is not an automatic succes IMHO.
    Nonsense! This is a good war. A just war. One without any national interest at all. We have the Obama to lead us. How can we possibly fail?

    We get rid of a ruthless dictator, show the people how democracy works, they vote, and put a popular guy in charge who will leave office when the next election result tells him to. How simple is that?
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    • #3
      Let France expend blood and treasure. It's hard to see how getting involved is truly in our interest.

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      • #4
        Define what failure is first.

        Do you mean Gaddafi stays in power and the rebels are ultimately defeated and dispersed?
        Do you mean in the long-term we have a stalemate creating a Cyprus-like situation where neither side wins nor loses?
        Do you mean we overthrow Gaddafi like we did Saddam and afterwards the rebels all turn on one another to take control?
        Do you mean the conflict grows wider and openly draws in neighboring countries as well for both sides and any hope of regional stability in the medium-term is gone that requires an extended presence for all states providing troops under the UN mandate?
        Last edited by rj1; 18 Mar 11,, 20:59.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by gunnut View Post
          Nonsense! This is a good war. A just war. One without any national interest at all. We have the Obama to lead us. How can we possibly fail?

          We get rid of a ruthless dictator, show the people how democracy works, they vote, and put a popular guy in charge who will leave office when the next election result tells him to. How simple is that?
          GN were you this sarcastic when we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan? ...Or has time taken its toll on you, and you want to deflect from history?...Nothing is written in stone!!!!........... I was not a member then and cannot be bothered to research past posts from such a bard and wit as yourself

          Originally posted by Tzimisces View Post
          Let France expend blood and treasure. It's hard to see how getting involved is truly in our interest.
          Great, anything intelligent to say?..if not just post jokes.

          Originally posted by rj1 View Post
          Define what failure is first.

          Do you mean Gaddafi stays in power and the rebels are ultimately defeated and dispersed?
          Do you mean in the long-term we have a stalemate creating a Cyprus-like situation where neither side wins nor loses?
          Do you mean we overthrow Gaddafi like we did Saddam and afterwards the rebels all turn on one another to take control?
          Do you mean the conflict grows wider and openly draws in neighboring countries as well for both sides and any hope of regional stability in the medium-term is gone that requires an extended presence for all states providing troops under the UN mandate?
          All of the above......................
          sigpicFEAR NAUGHT

          Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

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          • #6
            Just to clarify, the term "blood and treasure" is not a flippant remark: The phrase "blood and treasure" or "lives and treasure" has been used to refer to the human and monetary costs associated with various endeavours such as space exploration or as in this case..war.

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            • #7
              Great, anything intelligent to say?..if not just post jokes.
              He has a point, the French President ran his mouth as did the English prime minster (who is cutting his military spending), they should be doing the NFZ along with those freedom loving GCC regimes which voted for the NFZ. America gains nothing by putting a bunch of Islamists and ex-Khaddfy loyalists in power. When the media falls out of love with the idea of Arab hipsters who play on face-book running a nation and realize that the new crop of people we are married to are no better then the bottom feeders we normally seem to attract it will be too late.

              BHO should have kept the hell out of this mess.
              Last edited by troung; 19 Mar 11,, 00:38.
              To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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              • #8
                troung - response

                He has a point, the French President ran his mouth as did the English prime minster (who is cutting his military spending), they should be doing the NFZ along with those freedom loving GCC regimes which voted for the NFZ. America gains nothing by putting a bunch of Islamists and ex-Khaddfy loyalists in power. BHO should have kept the hell out of this mess.
                wow a comment and no paper written by someone else

                He has a point I agree, everyone does who posts on here, however how you interpret the point is dependant on agreement.

                Yep the UK and French Governments were very vocal in this matter, just as the US Government was vocal way back when they needed a coalition......... I get it Troung, you dont like it, well thats life we dont always get our own way do we
                sigpicFEAR NAUGHT

                Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by troung View Post
                  they should be doing the NFZ along with those freedom loving GCC regimes which voted for the NFZ.
                  You mean Lebanon, the only Arab League member in the SC? ;)

                  What i find interesting is that all three active G4 members abstained, along with Russia and China as the only ones in the whole SC even. Somewhat interesting connection (active G4 = India, Brazil, Germany - the three that want a permanent seat).

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by kato View Post
                    Somewhat interesting connection (active G4 = India, Brazil, Germany - the three that want a permanent seat).
                    Perhaps a future indicator of things to come when they make it to the SC ?

                    BRIC + Germany abstained.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                      Perhaps a future indicator of things to come when they make it to the SC ?

                      BRIC + Germany abstained.
                      Well abstention is not veto........................ it went through so China and Russia re thought, DE. Abstention allows one to show ones principles, without backing them up.
                      sigpicFEAR NAUGHT

                      Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

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                      • #12
                        It looks as if we may have already failed in Libya: by supporting Sunni elements against a secular dictator while giving a pass to a theocratic regime and other autocrats to crush Shiite elements, the U.S. has clearly chosen sides in an often bloody, fourteen century old sectarian fight. Hardly looks like the beginning of a successful regional strategy (regional in terms of oil producing and/or Arab world).

                        William
                        Pharoh was pimp but now he is dead. What are you going to do today?

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                        • #13
                          Swift Sword - response

                          fourteen century old sectarian fight
                          As was to be expected this is turning into quite the emotive topic, whilst I agree with you SW regarding the age of the disputes and conflicts in the ME, 100 years ago and prior give or take it was not a concern really as it did not impact on the west to any significance, today it does, in very big and many different ways.

                          Who has the right answer? I cannot believe after all the acts of terrorism that have occured some still believe it is best to leave it alone.

                          inaction is also a decision, a policy with consequence.
                          Decisions taken now will define attitudes to us for a generation; they will also heavily influence the outcomes. They will have to be taken, as ever, with imperfect knowledge and the impossibility of accurate foresight
                          Both those quotes are by Tony Blair;
                          http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinio...cle2952192.ece

                          (Now I will just wait for all the negative comments about Blair!)

                          I guess its the old chestnut hey, a consequence of the WoT.......... do we are or dont we?.............pro active or re active which to be ?
                          sigpicFEAR NAUGHT

                          Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

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                          • #14
                            I am thinking about what are the criteria that justify intervention; and whether it can be done based on events that are always consistent, based on International law. Ofcourse; in reality this wont be the case, and politics, rivalries, alliances and relative power, all play a much larger part than simply law. Obviously no one will intervene in Russia or China for example, no matter how ruthlessly they oppress civilians if there were to be an uprising; hypothetically.

                            Afghanistan was easy to justify; as a matter of self defense and retaliation for 9/11. I still think intervening in Iraq was wrong, atleast in 2003; the absence of any real WMD programs and that Saddam had committed no new act of aggression at that time. On the other hand; intervening in 1991 to protect the Shia uprising would have been justified to prevent a massacre; something that is similar to the current uprising in Libya.

                            I am trying to think back to the campaign in Kosovo, though I was in my teens. I dont think that the crackdown by the Serbs in Kosovo initially was as bad as what Gaddafi is currently in Libya; though they did carry out large scale ethnic cleansing; but that was after the air campaign had begun.

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                            • #15
                              Great, anything intelligent to say?..if not just post jokes.
                              Perhaps I should have expanded a bit more. I think that overt US involvement in Libya would be a mistake. Since France was posturing (since, of course, have intervened), then they should bear the burden on this one. We already have two going, do we really need a third?
                              The Libyans will never love us. The chances of a happy, free, democratic Libya are slim, at best. Removing Kaddafi is a worthy goal, certainly, but I say let another country do it. Besides, any new government that owes it's existence to the US will be tainted as a tool of the Great Satan. Better for them if we stay out, as well.

                              inaction is also a decision, a policy with consequence.
                              This is true, but a consequence can be positive or negative. Sometimes doing nothing is prudent and wise.

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