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  • #91



    The city could be surrounded with relative ease and subjected to a siege.Khamis Gaddafi(or whomever is leading the government forces)would be a fool to launch a hasty attack with limited forces.However if they manage to cut the city from the outer world(that can be done only with light mobile forces) they have a chance to lure the rebels out.Another defeat and the rebels would break.
    They have to finish the rebels soon,otherwise a prolonged siege will be nothing but another Sarajevo.
    Attached Files
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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    • #92
      Numbers ain't there. The rebels also have light mobile forces in the form of technicals. The problem for the rebels is the artillery which is protected by a reserved force. If the technicals can get within range of the reserves, the artillery has to withdraw.

      Also, if rebel nerve can hold, even the artillery ain't going to dislodge them. Soviet artillery didn't dislodge the Germans at Berlin and had to do house to house fighting and with that, Qaddafy's qualitative advantages disappears.

      Comment


      • #93
        Libyan rebellion has radical Islamist fervor: Benghazi link to Islamic militancy:U.S. Military Document Reveals
        Thu, 2011-03-17 12:59 — editor
        Daya Gamage – Foreign News Desk Asian Tribune
        Washington, D.C. 17 March (Asiantribune.com):

        Libyan rebellion has radical Islamist fervor: Benghazi link to Islamic militancy:U.S. Military Document Reveals | Asian Tribune

        Well known to the United States policymakers in Obama White House and Clinton State Department along with the National Security Council but not widely known to American mainstream media, the U.S. West Point Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center document reveals that Libya sent more fighters to Iraq’s Islamic militancy on a per-capita basis than any other Muslim country, including Saudi Arabia.

        Perhaps more alarmingly for Western policymakers, most of the fighters came from eastern Libya, the center of the current uprising against Muammar el-Qaddafi.

        The analysis of the Combating Terrorism Center of West Point was based on the records captured by coalition forces in October 2007 in a raid near Sinjar, along Iraq’s Syrian border.

        The eastern Libyan city of Darnah sent more fighters to Iraq than any other single city or town, according to the West Point report. It noted that 52 militants came to Iraq from Darnah, a city of just 80,000 people (the second-largest source of fighters was Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which has a population of more than 4 million).

        Benghazi, the capital of Libya’s provisional government declared by the anti-Qaddafi rebels, sent in 21 fighters, again a disproportionate number of the whole.

        If the 2007 captured records revealed the Eastern Libyan participation in the anti-coalition forces militancy in Iraq one could imagine the Banghazi-Darnah export of Islamists since then.

        “Libyans were more fired up to travel to Iraq to kill Americans than anyone else in the Arabic-speaking world,” Andrew Exum, a counterinsurgency specialist and former Army Ranger noted in a blog posting recently. “This might explain why those rebels from Libya's eastern provinces are not too excited about U.S. military intervention. It might also give some pause to those in the United States so eager to arm Libya's rebels.”

        Despite this data and information available to the United Stated government Secretary of State Hilary Clinton met late Monday 14 with a leader of the Libyan rebel movement in Paris privately and without a public statement. Mrs. Clinton met the opposition rebel leader Mahmoud Jibril at her hotel in Paris after attending a dinner with foreign ministers of the countries of the Group 8 who discussed ways to increase pressure on Colonel Qaddafi’s Libyan regime.

        The West Point report said “Both Darnah and Benghazi have long been associated with Islamic militancy in Libya.

        A significant progress was made by the Libyan rebels when the French President Nicolas Sarkozy welcomed a pair of envoys from the Libyan National Council, the rebel leadership, early this month. France indicated that it would recognize the rebel proclaimed provisional government based in Benghazi. Britain also signaled that it may also recognize the rebel authority.

        Despite those developments the Obama administration seems to be vacillating having no firm Libyan policy since the rebellion.

        If the rebellion succeeds in toppling the Qaddafi regime it will have direct access to the tens of billions of dollars that Qaddafi is believed to have squirreled away in overseas accounts during his four-decade rule.

        The once-secret Iraqi “Sinjar documents” which is the basis of the West Point analytical document provide an additional reason for the Obama administration to take a cautious approach in its dealings with the rebels from both Darnah and Benghazi. The document noted that Islamist organizations in both cities led an earlier uprising against Qaddafi in the mid-1990s that was brutally put down by the Libyan dictator.

        Colonel Qaddafi renounced terrorism, paid billions of dollars to Lockerby-victim families, allowed the U.S. to remove nuclear facilities and established diplomatic relations with the United States. Qaddafi has continuously opposed the al-Qaeda operations in the Middle East and Northern Africa.

        The Asian Tribune provides here the data and information from an analytical document of the U.S. Defense Department.

        Al-Qaeda’s Foreign Fighters in Iraq: A First Look at the Sinjar Records is the latest in a series of reports from the Combating Terrorism Center drawing on newly released information from captured al-Qaeda documents maintained in the Defense Department’s Harmony Data Base.

        The introduction of the report says:

        (Quote) On December 4, 2007 Abu Umar al?Baghdadi, the reputed Emir of al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), claimed that his organization was almost purely Iraqi, containing only 200 foreign fighters.1 Twelve days later, on December 16, 2007, Ayman al?Zawahiri urged Sunnis in Iraq to unite behind the ISI. Both statements are part of al-Qaeda’s ongoing struggle to appeal to Iraqis, many of whom resent the ISI’s foreign leadership and its desire to impose strict Islamic law.

        In November 2007, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point received nearly 700 records of foreign nationals that entered Iraq between August 2006 and August 2007. The data compiled and analyzed in this report is drawn from these personnel records, which was collected by al-Qaeda’s Iraqi affiliates, first the Mujahidin Shura Council (MSC) and then the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). The records contain varying levels of information on each fighter, but often include the fighter’s country of origin, hometown, age, occupation, the name of the fighter’s recruiter, and even the route the fighter took to Iraq. The records were captured by coalition forces in October 2007 in a raid near Sinjar, along Iraq’s Syrian border.

        Libya_1.JPG
        Anti-Libyan regime fighters prepare for battle in Ajdabiya in eastern Libya

        Although there is some ambiguity in the data, it is likely that all of the fighters listed in the Sinjar Records crossed into Iraq from Syria. (Un-Quote)

        The Asian Tribune presents here the salient data, information and observations of the Combating Terrorism Center of West Point maintained in the U.S. Defense Department’s Harmony Data Base. The analysis gives an alarming picture of the political shade of the Libyan rebels of Benghazi and Darnah, the eastern stronghold of anti-Qaddafi movement. The observation in this Defense Department document is very revealing.

        (Begin Report):

        Initial Findings

        Country of Origin

        Saudi Arabia was by far the most common nationality of the fighters’ in this sample; 41% (244) of the 595 records that included the fighter’s nationality indicated they were of Saudi Arabian origin.

        Libya was the next most common country of origin, with 18.8% (112) of the fighters listing their nationality stating they hailed from Libya. Syria, Yemen, and Algeria were the next most common origin countries with 8.2% (49), 8.1% (48), and 7.2% (43), respectively. Moroccans accounted for 6.1% (36) of the records and Jordanians 1.9% (11).

        The obvious discrepancy between previous studies of Iraqi foreign fighters and the Sinjar Records is the percentage of Libyan fighters. (See Appendix 1 for a brief summary of previous foreign fighter studies.) No previous study has indicated that more than 4 percent of fighters were Libyan. Indeed, a June 2005 report by NBC quoted a U.S. government source indicating that Libya did not make a top ten list of origin nationalities for foreign fighters in Iraq.9 As late as July 15, 2007, the Los Angeles Times cited a U.S. Army source reporting that only 10 percent of all foreign fighters in Iraq hailed from North Africa.10 The Sinjar Records suggest that number is much higher. Almost 19 percent of the fighters in the Sinjar Records came from Libya alone. Furthermore, Libya contributed far more fighters per capita than any other nationality in the Sinjar Records, including Saudi Arabia.

        The previous reports may have collectively understated the Libyan contribution to the fight in Iraq, but the relative synchronization of earlier analyses suggests that the pattern of immigration to Iraq has simply shifted over time. In an admittedly small sample, 76.9% (30) of the 39 Libyans that listed their arrival date in Iraq entered the country between May and July 2007, which may indicate a spring “surge” of Libyan recruits to Iraq. If the numbers cited by the Los Angeles Times in July 2007 are any indication, even the U.S. Army may have underestimated the Libyan contingent in Iraq.

        The apparent surge in Libyan recruits traveling to Iraq may be linked the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group’s (LIFG) increasingly cooperative relationship with al-Qaeda, which culminated in the LIFG officially joining al-Qaeda on November 3, 2007.

        City/Town of Origin

        Of 591 records that included the country of origin of the fighters, 440 also contained information on the home city/town the fighters hailed from. The most common cities that the fighters called home were Darnah, Libya and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with 52 and 51 fighters respectively. Darnah, with a population just over 80,000 compared to Riaydh’s 4.3 million, has far and away the largest per capita number of fighters in the Sinjar records. The next most common hometowns? in real terms? listed in the Sinjar records were Mecca (43), Beghazi (21), and Casablanca (17). City/town of origin for Saudi Arabia, Libya, Morocco, Algeria, and Syria are broken out in greater detail below.

        Libyan Hometowns

        The vast majority of Libyan fighters that included their hometown in the Sinjar Records resided in the country’s Northeast, particularly the coastal cities of Darnah 60.2% (53) and Benghazi 23.9% (21).

        Both Darnah and Benghazi have long been associated with Islamic militancy in Libya, in particular for an uprising by Islamist organizations in the mid?1990s. The Libyan government blamed the uprising on “infiltrators from the Sudan and Egypt” and one group—the Libyan Fighting Group (jama?ah al?libiyah al?muqatilah)—claimed to have Afghan veterans in its ranks.14 The Libyan uprisings became extraordinarily violent. Qaddafi used helicopter gunships in Benghazi, cut telephone, electricity, and water supplies to Darnah and famously claimed that the militants “deserve to die without trial, like dogs.”

        Abu Layth al?Libi, LIFG’s Emir, reinforced Benghazi and Darnah’s importance to Libyan jihadis in his announcement that LIFG had joined al?Qa’ida, saying:

        ‘It is with the grace of God that we were hoisting the banner of jihad against this apostate regime under the leadership of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which sacrificed the elite of its sons and commanders in combating this regime whose blood was spilled on the mountains of Darnah, the streets of Benghazi, the outskirts of Tripoli, the desert of Sabha, and the sands of the beach.’

        Like other governments in the region, Libya appears concerned about the possibility of jihadi violence within its borders. In May 2007, the Libyan government arrested several Libyans on the grounds that they were planning a car bomb attack similar to an April attack in Algeria.17 And in July 2007, a group calling itself al-Qaeda in Eastern Libya announced a suicide attack in Darnah.18 Libya’s leader Muammar Qaddafi has taken measures to mitigate the threat from such groups, and has reportedly released over 80 Muslim Brotherhood activists in the hope that they will moderate the views of more violent Islamist activists.

        If LIFG is funneling Libyans into Iraq, it may exacerbate rumored tensions between LIFG elements over whether or not to concentrate on militant activity within Libya’s borders.20 Such debates are common among national jihadi movements shifting focus to global issues. This sort of debate disrupted both Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Egyptian Islamic Group in the 1990s.21 Reports suggesting that LIFG’s decision to join al-Qaeda was controversial may be exaggerated, but they probably reflect a contentious debate over LIFG’s future.22 LIFG’s support for al-Qaeda’s Iraqi affiliate has probably increased its stature in al-Qaeda’s leadership, but complicated its internal dynamics.

        Recent political developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the prevalence of Libyan fighters in Iraq, and evidence of a well?established smuggling route for Libyans through Egypt, suggests that Libyan factions (primarily the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group) are increasingly important in al-Qaeda. The Sinjar Records offer some evidence that Libyans began surging into Iraq in larger numbers beginning in May 2007. Most of the Libyan recruits came from cities in North?East Libya, an area long known for jihadi?linked militancy. Libyan fighters were much more likely than other nationalities to be listed as suicide bombers (85% for Libyans, 56% for all others).

        The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group’s unification with al-Qaeda and its apparent decision to prioritize providing logistical support to the Islamic State of Iraq is likely controversial within the organization. It is likely that some LIFG factions still want to prioritize the fight against the Libyan regime, rather than the fight in Iraq. It may be possible to exacerbate schisms within LIFG, and between LIFG’s leaders and al-Qaeda’s traditional Egyptian and Saudi power?base. (End Report)

        - Asian Tribune -

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        To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

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        • #94
          Libya Live Blog - March 17 | Al Jazeera Blogs


          6:21pm

          Egypt says that it will not intervene militarily in Libya. Responding to Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state's, comments earlier about possible "Arab involvement" in military action, Menha Bakhoum, an Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson told Reuters:

          Egypt will not be among those Arab states. We will not be involved in any military intervention. No intervention, period."
          6:16pm

          The Pentagon has voiced "concern about conducting military operations inside Libya".

          "It would be logical if one of [US Defence Secretary Robert Gates'] concerns about a no-fly zone is the element of attacking Libyan air defenses, then an option of air strikes would be pretty similar," Colonel David Lapan, a spokesman, said, adding that there was concern regarding the conduct of such operations.
          Basically once you start attacking the other side this ceases to be a civil war and simply becomes a yet another colonial adventure.


          5:06pm

          General Norton Schwartz, the chief of the US air force, says that imposing a no-fly zone over Libya would "not be sufficient" to reverse the advance of Muammar Gaddafi's forces on opposition strongholds.

          Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee, he said that it could take "upwards of a week" to set up a no-fly zone.

          He said that if the US were to get involved in international efforts to set up the no-fly zone, aircraft based in Europe and in the United States would be use, but some resources currently being used in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would also be used.
          I have several thoughts. They are somewhat philosophical. Lets say the no-fly zone is enforced, Qadaffi is bombed and rebels push forth with air support while military supplies of vehicles etc give them a mechanized division to "re-take" Libya and create regime change. Assume this all happens and they install a new leader. What happens after support is dropped and Tripoli and other cities rebel in opposition to gain their freedom from a different despot in a different part of country?

          What happens if they need help retaking things from Qadaffi because those cities can hold out as well? Do you bomb them claiming that its ok because the people actually want freedom?

          Lets say all of this is done and we get another "despot" lets say in Ivory Coast (which is what is happening now) do we go there as well? He may not have gotten the majority but obviously a plurality did support him and he may have won the majority a few years ago but now the guy is a despot because a Euro backed candidate is declared winner from outside the country.

          What about Nigeria they might have elections sooner or later perhaps we won't like whom they have or the people in Egypt will chose the wrong candidate and a moderate intervention will steere them etc...

          When does it stop? ... when the money runs out is not a good enough answer
          Last edited by cyppok; 18 Mar 11,, 11:19.
          Originally from Sochi, Russia.

          Comment


          • #95
            Never.Hypocrisy is the rule of the game since Sumer.The conclusion is that people need to be careful in which sort of hornet nest they step.Gaddafi was a bit unlucky this time.

            I take your point about the nature of the rebels.At the top levels they are mostly former collaborators of Gaddafi.All they will do is use the same sort of measures against those loyal to Gaddafi to the end(his tribe).

            It's a mess that has nothing to do with democracy ,human rights and other hijacked ideas.
            Those who know don't speak
            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              If the technicals can get within range of the reserves, the artillery has to withdraw.
              The artillery in the Benghazi theater is apparently mostly composed of self-propelled howitzers (Italian Palmarias on OF-40) firing at 20-25 km range. Reserve force only has to bind the enemy for ten minutes for the SPHs to conveivably scoot to a safe position and support that.

              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              if rebel nerve can hold
              Considering that in light of the past two weeks of operations, i doubt it will.

              Comment


              • #97
                The rebel nerve has had a boost. They will know that Qaddafi is turning tail and re-thinking his next, and probable, final move. Their moral will be sky high if they think help is just off shore. Qaddafi won't have the guts to call our bluff...yet again he will not be sleeping well tonight ;)

                Comment


                • #98
                  Originally posted by dave lukins View Post
                  Qaddafi won't have the guts to call our bluff...yet again he will not be sleeping well tonight ;)
                  His spokespeople seem to be having a ball with issuing their statements, all smiles & laughs.

                  Their latest statement asks for intl observers, from Germany, China, Malta & Turkey to verify their declared cease fire. They think there is too much misinformation in the free press and this is giving Hilary Clinton the wrong idea

                  They seem to interpret this statement as a cessation of hostilities on both sides, if they are provoked by the rebels they will respond as its a 'natural reaction'. Looks like they are trying to consolodate their gains before any adverse action is taken on them.

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                    His spokespeople seem to be having a ball with issuing their statements, all smiles & laughs.

                    Their latest statement asks for intl observers, from Germany, China, Malta & Turkey to verify their declared cease fire. They think there is too much misinformation in the free press and this is giving Hilary Clinton the wrong idea

                    They seem to interpret this statement as a cessation of hostilities on both sides, if they are provoked by the rebels they will respond as its a 'natural reaction'. Looks like they are trying to consolodate their gains before any adverse action is taken on them.
                    He played the good guy card by pulling out his killers as soon as he heard the news that a NFZ could be implemented. He is now calling the shots and demanding observers as he knows with int observers there would be no air to ground attacks.

                    Comment


                    • Actually, he already called for international observers a couple weeks ago.

                      25th February - Gaddafi asks for a investigation team from either the UN or the African Union
                      6th March - EU deploys Humanitarian Observer Team to Libya (under Agostino Miozzo, EU Director-General for Crisis Reaction)
                      7th March - UN announces Ban Ki Moon and Gaddafi arraigned for a OCHA Observer Team to be sent to Tripolis

                      At least they're consistent.

                      The reports of the OCHA on Libya can be found [here]. In the current issue among other things it reports sexual assault on women in rebel-held territories, civilians being hindered from fleeing combat zones (or in other words being used as human shields by rebels) and physical violence and thefts against Black Africans living in rebel-controlled territories in Libya.
                      Last edited by kato; 19 Mar 11,, 02:27.

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                      • They are just as inconsistent as others were. Maybe WRT, calling for observers. But they're in general - first he was saying he would go house too house - now he is saying he is staying on the outskirts to protect the people. First he said it was an American plot. Next he said it was al Qaeda. etc etc...

                        There is no credibility for this Government. I am not sure you can even call it a Government! Should call it - A force for Gadaffi's PR speeches.


                        This is like, during Iraq, saying Baghdad bob -

                        "There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!"

                        "My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all"

                        "Our initial assessment is that they will all die"

                        "I blame Al-Jazeera - they are marketing for the Americans!"

                        And then afterwards - the report switches over to embeds - and us see US forces in Baghdad.


                        Edit - How many rapes have occurred? You have a specific number? They were treated, or were interviewed? You have a per-capita number?
                        Last edited by Dago; 19 Mar 11,, 02:34.
                        sigpic

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                        • Originally posted by Dago View Post
                          Edit - How many rapes have occurred? You have a specific number? They were treated, or were interviewed? You have a per-capita number?
                          No statistics. Reported by some organization who interviewed people transitioning the borders. Wouldn't give too much on it. Apparently happened on the border to Tunisia too, by security guards. And with sexual assault, we're not necessarily talking about rape btw.

                          The part with the civilians hindered from fleeing combat zones is a bit more serious, in particular in light of the resolution text.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by kato View Post
                            No statistics. Reported by some organization who interviewed people transitioning the borders. Wouldn't give too much on it. Apparently happened on the border to Tunisia too, by security guards. And with sexual assault, we're not necessarily talking about rape btw.

                            The part with the civilians hindered from fleeing combat zones is a bit more serious, in particular in light of the resolution text.
                            In no way do I doubt that all of this is occurring. There has been huge transition, actually chaotic, and normal day life has been effected, internal police and security and such, and all efforts have been placed on defending themselves from an attack. While you have anywhere, sick minded individuals that sexual assault women. Undoubtedly, I wouldn't discount the increase in crime. As these individuals are less fearful, as the lack of police, and order present. However, I was just curious, if this was wide-spread, for instance a group of rebels, pillaging a block/village of women. Thats what came to my mind. Thats where my question was geared towards.

                            Also I am trying to find the report - but only gives a excerpt - doesn't say which party was responsible.

                            IOM estimates that some 22,500 people remain stranded at the Libyan borders, with over 16,000 being Bangladeshis. An expected 40 to 50 long-haul flights will be needed to repatriate all the migrants. According to UNHCR, increasing accounts of violence and harassment in Libya against sub-Saharan Africans are alarming. The accounts come from eastern and western areas. They include beating, intimidation, sexual violence, and theft of personal property and immigration documents.

                            "All parties to the conflict in Libya must take care to ensure that civilians are protected from harm," ERC Amos said today. "I am deeply concerned about the reportedly indiscriminate nature of the fighting, and particularly the use of heavy artillery and aerial bombardments. We are also hearing reports of hospital closures at the very time when
                            Last edited by Dago; 19 Mar 11,, 02:47.
                            sigpic

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                            • Originally posted by kato View Post
                              The artillery in the Benghazi theater is apparently mostly composed of self-propelled howitzers (Italian Palmarias on OF-40) firing at 20-25 km range. Reserve force only has to bind the enemy for ten minutes for the SPHs to conveivably scoot to a safe position and support that.
                              A single brigade based upon the Soviet model, the reserves would be company strength. Even against Technicals, they ain't going to blind anyone.

                              Originally posted by kato View Post
                              Considering that in light of the past two weeks of operations, i doubt it will.
                              Except this is no longer rebels alone but their entire families. Either the men wins or their families die.

                              Comment


                              • Troung & Mihais Reply

                                Thanks, Troung, for the valuable contribution from the Asian Tribune and USMA Combatting Terrorism Center. It reminds of the last line to the old Who song, Won't Get Fooled Again-

                                "...Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss."

                                Both your contribution and Mihais are wise words of which to pay heed.
                                "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                                "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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