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Thread: Libya updates

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Sure, but this castle also has access to a long coastline.
    How to stop the supplies coming in ?
    Libya still has a loyalist navy, and it's been pretty active in support of operations lately (shelling, transport).

  2. #62
    Military Professional T_igger_cs_30's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I really cannot, but experience has taught me that diplomacy works in very strange ways DE in the short term. The long term always gives us a clearer picture of past events.
    And just maybe this might just have something to do with it;

    The telephone conversation was intercepted by Col Gaddafi's forces and broadcast on Libyan state television on Sunday night.


    Never take anything at face value when it comes to dirty tactics. (AKA Diplomacy)
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    Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

  3. #63
    Military Professional T_igger_cs_30's Avatar
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    Losing Libya

    The Times - March 14 2011 ( Leading Article)

    By force of arms and brutality, Gaddafi is regaining control. Diplomatic pressure and protection of the rebel forces are urgent

    While the world’s horrified attention is drawn to one humanitarian disaster, another is intensifying. The difference is that the plight of Japan’s people is due to the impersonal forces of nature, whereas catastrophe in Libya is being wreaked as a matter of policy. Colonel Muammar Gaddafi is driving back the rebels.

    Against his depredations, Western policy has foundered. There needs to be utmost clarity towards Colonel Gaddafi’s criminal regime. David Cameron should act on his instincts and rally support to ratchet up diplomatic pressure. The alternative is stark. As Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former Foreign Secretary, argues in The Times today, victory for Colonel Gaddafi would be a disaster not only for Libya’s people but for the entire Arab world (see page 24). The message to autocrats would be clear: the effective response to popular pressure is murderous repression, which the international community will allow to succeed.

    Amid international divisions over the right response to Colonel Gaddafi, his forces have consolidated control. Rebels have lost the oil port of Ras Lanuf and are in retreat from Brega. A regime of sufficient brutality, facing an insurgency lacking weapons and military experience, has an unassailable advantage. Unless that is neutralised, the rebels will lose. The costs for them will be terrible. So will the threat to the Western democracies.

    Libya’s agonies are not an internal issue that must be allowed to come to a natural conclusion, nor in any reputable sense are Libyans Colonel Gaddafi’s “own” people. This is a war of aggression fought by an illegitimate ruler against a captive people. If they are defeated, then the mercurial Colonel Gaddafi will turn on others. This is not merely a prediction but a description.

    Colonel Gaddafi is by history and impulse a supporter of terrorism. The bombing of a Berlin nightclub in 1986 and of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie in 1988 are only the most notorious of his crimes. Even after his chastened diplomatic opening to the West in 2003, Colonel Gaddafi sponsored an assassination plot against Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. Violence employed casually but targeted deliberately is his method, within Libya’s borders and without.

    There is no warrant in international law or self-defence to allow him to persist. There is a widely accepted principle of humanitarian intervention to stop the commission of crimes against humanity. It was justified after the Gulf War in 1991 to protect Iraq’s Kurds and in Nato’s actions in Kosovo in 1999 to prevent genocide by Serb forces. Mr Cameron should invoke it now against Colonel Gaddafi, and make clear the judicial consequences that will follow for troops that commit war crimes. He should also stress the danger that the unrestrained despot poses to the international order. He should consult, certainly, with Britain’s allies; but he cannot take no for an answer.

    Unfortunately the most decisive statement by the Obama Administration on the crisis is scorn for a proposed no-fly zone. It is one thing to argue about the logistics of stopping Colonel Gaddafi’s warplanes from bombing rebel forces (and Britain would have greater sway in those discussions if the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal had not been lately decommissioned). But meanwhile Libya’s rebels beg and the Arab League urges the UN Security Council to impose a no-fly zone.

    France and Britain support that call. The international coalition that President Obama appears to be awaiting is already there in outline. It needs mobilising. Mr Cameron should urgently reinforce that message in Washington. Economic sanctions and the freezing of assets are symbolically valuable but they will not depose a despot who has supped full with horrors. The rebels against him risk life and liberty. Their cause demands not just sympathy but active solidarity from the West.

    As Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former Foreign Secretary, argues in The Times today, victory for Colonel Gaddafi would be a disaster not only for Libya’s people but for the entire Arab world
    (See below)

    Arm the rebels. Gaddafi must not prevail
    Sir Malcolm Rifkind is Conservative MP for Kensington and Chelsea and was Foreign Secretary from 1995-97

    Supplying weapons would be legal and fair. We must not repeat the mistakes of Bosnia

    The Libyan people could face total defeat in the next few weeks. The wheel of fortune is turning against them. In the past ten days Colonel Gaddafi has consolidated his position in Tripoli, cowing its inhabitants. He has driven the insurgents out of towns and enclaves near the capital and has now apparently recaptured the strategic oil town of Brega in the centre of the country.

    His next aim will be to penetrate eastwards towards Benghazi, where the Revolutionary Council has its headquarters. Recapturing the east will not be easy for Gaddafi. His lines of communication will be stretched and Benghazi and the tribes of the east have always been hostile to his rule. But he has serious strengths denied to his enemies. Unlike the insurgents who have great courage but are lightly armed, he has a monopoly of air power and a massive preponderance of tanks and heavy artillery. The oil fields are mainly in the liberated east of the country, but the Government controls more than 80 per cent of the country’s refinery capacity. He has also brought in hundreds, and perhaps thousands, of mercenaries from neighbouring countries.

    The reaction of the international community to events in Libya has, so far, been uncertain, disunited and at best tactical rather than strategic. To be truthful, until a few days ago this did not matter all that much. It seemed certain that Gaddafi was finished, his regime was crumbling and the only uncertainty was whether he would flee or be found cornered in a Tripoli bunker. That is no longer the case and the West and the international community must wake up to the enormous consequences if he is able to cling on to power and regain control of the whole country.

    The consequences would not just be devastating for the Libyans but for the Arab world and the Middle East as a whole. The message would be clear to the despots in Syria, Iran and elsewhere. Reject reform, respond with brutality and you will retain power. Instead of the world welcoming an Arab Spring it would be like Budapest in 1956 and Prague in 1968, where freedom was postponed for a generation; or Tiananmen Square in 1989 — the Chinese are still waiting.

    Furthermore, freedom in Egypt and Tunisia is still too fragile to be assured if the Middle East otherwise remains a region of dictators and despots. So the stakes have become very high.

    What is needed is a clear and deliverable international strategy that would change the balance of power in Libya between Gaddafi and the insurgents without foreign troops invading the country. There should be four components to such a strategy.

    First and most important should be an open and urgent supply of the necessary weapons to the insurgents so that they can fight Gaddafi on equal terms. The UN has imposed an arms embargo and some have suggested that this makes illegal any supply of weapons to either side in Libya. The UN Resolution, however, refers to a ban on arms supply to the Libyan “Jamahiriya”, which is Gaddafi’s invented name for the state he controls. It need not prevent supplies to those trying to bring him down.

    Otherwise, we will repeat the mistake of the Bosnian war — when the UN embargo had much less impact on the Bosnian Serbs who were, already, heavily armed. Having been Defence Secretary at that time I have, in retrospect, felt that that was the most serious mistake made by the UN.

    Gaddafi could hardly make successful propaganda from such arms supplies to the insurgents. He himself has internationalised the conflict by importing mercenaries from the surrounding countries of North Africa and the Middle East.

    The second part of the strategy should be massive American and international pressure on the governments of Chad, Algeria and possibly Syria to stop their nationals becoming Gaddafi’s mercenaries.

    They could not have been taken to Tripoli without permission of their governments, which should be warned that they face the fiercest sanctions unless they desist.

    The third component of the strategy should be the no-fly zone. I had been unconvinced of the need, on humanitarian grounds, for such a step while the insurgents were winning. There is limited evidence of Gaddafi deliberately targeting civilians. Most of the air strikes have been aimed at arms dumps and insurgent units. The need for the no-fly zone is now unashamedly military. It will be essential in ensuring that Gaddafi cannot reconquer the east of Libya and may, in due course, help to defeat him in Libya as a whole.

    But it still cannot happen if it is to be by the United States, Britain and France alone. That would be too much like Iraq, whereas the proper precedent should be the Gulf War in 1990, when Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were part of the coalition that liberated Kuwait. The support of the Arab League for a no-fly zone (with only Syria and Algeria opposing), as well as the Gulf Co-operation Council, is a very big step in the right direction.

    Fourth, it must be made even clearer than it has been that Gaddafi’s remaining generals and ministers face ending up in the International Criminal Court at The Hague unless they break with the Colonel. It is well known that that risk has already influenced many who have defected. More can be done.

    There is little doubt that the vast majority of Libyans want Gaddafi gone. Most of the Arab world despises him. The future of the whole Middle East will be distorted and damaged if he remains in power.

    This is not like Iraq ,where a military invasion by the US and the UK should never have happened and did enormous damage. What has to be addressed, and agreed urgently, is the need to help and enable the Libyan people to liberate themselves. That is a worthy cause, a sensible one and a cause consistent with both our ideals and our interests.
    <img src=http://C:\Documents and Settings\Wayne Smith\My Documents\002...My Pictures border=0 alt= />FEAR NAUGHT

    Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

  4. #64
    In Memoriam Military Professional dave lukins's Avatar
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    "Britain would have greater sway in those discussions if the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal had not been lately decommissioned"

    That'll teach Cameron not to sell off the family silver before the family is dead. It was a nap that this would happen whilst the middle east is in turmoil. His advisor's wouldn't get employed at Mothecare.

  5. #65
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    Additional views ......................

    Louis Susman: 'America will not move unilaterally. We are clear that Gaddafi has to go’

    By Con Coughlin 7:34AM GMT 14 Mar 2011

    In his first major newspaper interview since taking up his post 19 months ago, Louis Susman, the American ambassador to London, explains how the strong understanding between David Cameron and Barack Obama will be a source of strength in solving the Libyan crisis

    http://http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8380006/Louis-Susman-America-will-not-move-unilaterally.-We-are-clear-that-Gaddafi-has-to-go.html

    .................................................. .....................................

    Leading article: Meanwhile in Libya

    The Independant - Monday, 14 March 2011

    Leading article: Meanwhile in Libya... - Leading Articles, Opinion - The Independent

    .................................................. ....................................
    <img src=http://C:\Documents and Settings\Wayne Smith\My Documents\002...My Pictures border=0 alt= />FEAR NAUGHT

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  6. #66
    In Memoriam Military Professional dave lukins's Avatar
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    "As we watch the Japanese mobilising their massive rescue efforts, and international help begins to arrive, it should not be forgotten that, many thousands of miles away, a furious leader is taking vengeance on whole towns that dared to cross him".



    I mentioned something on these lines before. It is too easy to be deflected to other disasters and at the moment the Japanese earthquake and its aftermath has taken priority.

  7. #67
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by T_igger_cs_30 View Post
    I really cannot, but experience has taught me that diplomacy works in very strange ways DE in the short term. The long term always gives us a clearer picture of past events.
    ok

    Quote Originally Posted by T_igger_cs_30 View Post
    And just maybe this might just have something to do with it;
    I did not follow what you are implying here wrt to the intercept

    If Gaddafi can show foreign intervention of any kind then it plays to his advantage.

    There is no proof that this conversation actually happened when it did is there or even that it really is the british ambassador in libya speaking. Making a voice recording like that to imply such isn't that difficult.

    Thing is I don't recall the rebels making any public statements to confirm the idea that the recording could be fake.

    Quote Originally Posted by T_igger_cs_30 View Post
    Never take anything at face value when it comes to dirty tactics. (AKA Diplomacy)
    Are you saying that the intercept had nothing to do with the 'diplomatic team' ?

    And that downing street just played along.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Mar 11, at 15:53.

  8. #68
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    DE - response

    Are you saying that the intercept had nothing to do with the 'diplomatic team' ?

    And that downing street just played along.
    I am saying that I have never seen a cluster involving 22 or SBS like this ever...........and I think I have been consistent all through this ............ Something is not right with the whole fiasco.
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    Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

  9. #69
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by T_igger_cs_30 View Post
    I am saying that I have never seen a cluster involving 22 or SBS like this ever...........and I think I have been consistent all through this ............ Something is not right with the whole fiasco.
    Like i said in the opening salvo/gambit , its not like these boys to screw up , however Hague has taken flak for ordering it ??? I agree Wayne , something deffo stinks like my old keep net and wellies ??


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  10. #70
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dave lukins View Post
    "Britain would have greater sway in those discussions if the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal had not been lately decommissioned"

    That'll teach Cameron not to sell off the family silver before the family is dead. It was a nap that this would happen whilst the middle east is in turmoil. His advisor's wouldn't get employed at Mothecare.
    Ark Royal only lowered her flags a week ago m8 , shouldnt take long to fly em again and grab the crew back from R n R


    Trust gets you killed, love gets you hurt, and being REAL gets you hated.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by tankie View Post
    Ark Royal only lowered her flags a week ago m8 , shouldnt take long to fly em again and grab the crew back from R n R

    Oh how I wish Eric , how I wish ....................
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    Should raw analytical data ever be passed to policy makers?

  12. #72
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by T_igger_cs_30 View Post
    Oh how I wish Eric , how I wish ....................
    Same here , the tossers are talking about scrap value , bear in mind we are still waiting for the next 2 to be built ,,,why not sell her or give her away to one of our allies , or lend her ( is that option viable ) ?? remember P.P.P.P.P.P.P ,


    DAVES RIGHT ,,



    THE GOVT IN POWER COULD'NT GET JOBS AS BOUNCERS IN KIDS CLOTHES R US
    Last edited by tankie; 15 Mar 11, at 17:39.


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  13. #73
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    I'm still thinking something along the lines of Operation El Dorado Canyon is in order here . . . .
    "There is never enough time to do or say all the things that we would wish. The thing is to try to do as much as you can in the time that you have. Remember Scrooge, time is short, and suddenly, you're not there any more." -Ghost of Christmas Present, Scrooge

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by T_igger_cs_30 View Post
    This is not like Iraq ,where a military invasion by the US and the UK should never have happened and did enormous damage. What has to be addressed, and agreed urgently, is the need to help and enable the Libyan people to liberate themselves. That is a worthy cause, a sensible one and a cause consistent with both our ideals and our interests.
    Rifkind's argument completely fails here. I don't see how a person based on the arguments that were made by most people anti-Iraq War at the time of it occurring can say intervention in Iraq was wrong and illegal (the very oft-cited "the UN didn't sanction it, therefore it is illegal" argument) and now these same people say intervention in Libya is just in spite of the fact the UN likely isn't going to sanction it. It's not like Saddam was a nicer guy than Gaddafi is and him and his regime certainly had its humanitarian atrocities as well, but on the "ideals" front it's also not like countries such as France go around the world and overthrow the people that commit these things or are brutal dictators, the people that's done that in recent years was a U.S.-led coalition (with Britain highly involved in both) and it got us called warmongers and supposedly "the world hates us" and Brits themselves have a sour taste in their mouths for Tony Blair. So what makes this right then in contrast based on Rifkind's own logic on Iraq?

    That lack of being able to draw a distinction between Iraq and Libya on the difference between the two also explains Obama's moves or lack thereof as well, because if he does do this and commit American troops and equipment to overthrowing Gaddafi, he's doing the same thing he criticized his predecessors for.
    Last edited by rj1; 15 Mar 11, at 20:05.

  15. #75
    In Memoriam Military Professional dave lukins's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tankie View Post
    Ark Royal only lowered her flags a week ago m8 , shouldnt take long to fly em again and grab the crew back from R n R
    Afraid it's far too late to get the crew back....The bar has no beer

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