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  • #31
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    What you're missing is sustainment. Yes, you can get them there but can they stay? Or worst, can they get out? Within the next 7 days, I would not be commit to anything above a US battalion, especially in a hostile environment where they would outgunned, outnumbered, and out-positioned.
    No, I agree with this. Even deploying a battalion. Any deployment of US forces, IMHO, would take sometime. As we don't have units pre Iraq Afghan, standing by like we did before, waiting for the for tha main fast reaction footprint. Which all of the 82, and 101, and Ranger, 10th Mountain are for. All of these units have some units deployed already. And I am sure that Military Commanders, could be creatful, if something were too arrise, and we had US Forces stranded. Or A large contingent American Embassy personal or, citizens, were held hostage or captured. I am sure US military Commanders could be creative. But it still wouldn't as be as easy, as if they wern't already deployed. It would be sort of a mix match.

    This is why, I don't see any US forces being sent within a week. Just wouldn't happen. Because we wouldn't know our capability and time frame to deploy to create the footprint that is imagined, in a small intensity conflict.

    Hence, its unlikely, to risk other assets, MEU and elemts of Rangers and SOF, when you can't field a heavy brigade with a HQ. So whatever, military planners scrap together, will be formidable it will just take more time. Its easy, pre Afghanistan and Iraq, with all three units on standby. 101, 82nd, Mountain, Ranger.

    So any deployment, will have to have a clear time line of when a brigade can be deployed. And when another can be deployed. because, one frankly won't cut it. What is your mission, in Libya? Gadaffi loyalists? The main eastern city with a million plus? What is a brigade going to do? This isn't Afghanistan. Like the Northern Alliance. This is density population, with the likes of Iraq. IF your goal was a oil facility, or some sort of refuge camp, within Liybia, then its possible. Of course we could pitch our tent in the city, and capture a air base. MEU's, SOF. Ranger's etc... With a brigade on the way.

    But what would be sending a battalion in? IN what capacity? To oversee the flow of aids from the port, too city? You will need more then a battalion. And frankly more then a MEU, IMHO. This is immense. We just don't have that capability.

    We have the capability, to land SOF on the ground. Target Gadaffi loyalists with Air strikes, and give the people in the eastern, time to fortify.
    Last edited by Dago; 04 Mar 11,, 04:39.
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    • #32
      Originally posted by Dago View Post
      We have the capability, to land SOF on the ground. Target Gadaffi loyalists with Air strikes, and give the people in the eastern, time to fortify.
      I see two problems with this.

      If the rebels win, they won't remember.
      If Qadaffy wins, he won't forget.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by kato View Post
        Except said ESG just offloaded two thirds of its troops in Pakistan last month for yet another "temporary" surge to AFG.
        There are two ESG's in that loc, one has 2000 marines onboard.
        Linkeden:
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        • #34
          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          I see two problems with this.

          If the rebels win, they won't remember.
          If Qadaffy wins, he won't forget.
          This is assuming, of course, that Gadaffi significantly escalates it, and commits sustainment bombardment against civilans population. We can quite possibly see, on tv, hundereds of body in a square from bombs.

          And, honestly, at that point, how will the world forget? At that point I wouldn't care what he would think. If he does anything, in this generation, like his old ways of blowing up airlines, I can guarantee you, he will be on a predator drone attack on the US. Yes, he may move around, but he will be at the level of OBL. However, any slight possible sight of him, you can expect a predator drone. Heck maybe two a night, at his suspected locations.

          What should we be afraid of? Him being an actor of international terrorism? Sure that will get him on the list rather quickly.


          All I am saying, if it gets too the point, and time will tell, if massive casualties from western planes the west sold him, the Libyan people will not forget. Nor the American public. And other people. I am pretty sure, in this generation, we can see this type of stuff shot on the news. And everyone gets a clear picture, of dictators, obtaining western hardware, and using them on there people.
          Last edited by Dago; 04 Mar 11,, 07:42.
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          • #35
            1) There wouldn't be massive casualties from Western planes. Qaddafy's guys can barely hit an empty field.

            2) I ain't talking about the world remembering, I'm stating outright that the people in the Eastern Libya would take all the help they could get and then conveniently deny that you help them at all. At best, you provided a distraction but they won't even give you a thank you would turn instantly hostile once you start demanding some sort of payback, even if it is just a thank you.

            3) The Eastern tribes are blaming foreigners for their economic plight.

            4) If Qaddafy wins (and I have serious doubts that he could), we need nothing short of an invasion to remove him ... and I doubt we want to do that when we have both North Korea and Iran within our target list right now.

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            • #36
              Do you know the type of munitions their mirage's and MIG type aircraft utilize? I am sorry if I disagree. But anyone who sets foot in a jet, I am sure strive for a bit of perfectionism.

              I am sure, that they would distance them selfs. However, I don't think that would be concern of us, our desire isn't US hemorrhage in the region. I think, avoiding civilian casualties might triumph any other interests. And secondly, who said there would be any contact. Simply a no-fly zone, wouldn't need coordination.

              Foreign workers correct? But yes, I am sure there is a bit of US resentment and international resentment. There living standards are different than ours, I guess that entitles them a bit.

              I am sure, that the Libyan people can do that on there own. Or else, a drone or tomahawk cruise missile. He isn't as good as Saddam at evading. Yes, Libya is a big Country, but Tripoli is a small city. And thats the only place he can consolidate power. Also, the fact, that he would most likely be given up. He doesn't have loyalists like the bathists. Maybe Iblame it on his character. Or his lack of military victories. Or maybe, that's just how Libyans are different from Iraqi's.
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              • #37
                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                1) There wouldn't be massive casualties from Western planes. Qaddafy's guys can barely hit an empty field.

                2) I ain't talking about the world remembering, I'm stating outright that the people in the Eastern Libya would take all the help they could get and then conveniently deny that you help them at all. At best, you provided a distraction but they won't even give you a thank you would turn instantly hostile once you start demanding some sort of payback, even if it is just a thank you.

                3) The Eastern tribes are blaming foreigners for their economic plight.

                4) If Qaddafy wins (and I have serious doubts that he could), we need nothing short of an invasion to remove him ... and I doubt we want to do that when we have both North Korea and Iran within our target list right now.
                Col, what do you think the chances of success are for an Afghanistan style SOF led campaign in Libya?

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                • #38
                  Can I politely suggest that about the most the US can constructively do here, even if it had the resources in place, is keep Gaddhafi from using the air. This will not only limit his ability to attack rebels, but also to move forces about (I've heard he is still flying mercenaries in). Even this would have to be done with the public co-operation of local Arab nations & preferably the Arab League.

                  NATO forces could also deliver supplies - not necessarily arms & armaments - to the rebels.

                  Sendin NATO forces in in any numbers (even Special Forces) would be a huge mistake for a number of reasons.

                  First, America has a terrible image problem in the ME & contrary to what some Americans might want to believe, it is largely deserved (which isn't to say that everything that is said, believed or done is justified). I suspect that America has been a great power for so long that there isn't any real lingering memory of what it is like to have great powers interfere in your affairs, but given the reaction to any hint of outside intereference I'm guessing that it would be wildly unpopular. Other major NATO owers such as Britain, France & Italy have also not left behind fond memories of their involvement with the area. Boots on the ground would make this look like one more western intervention in a way that overflight would not.

                  Second, one of the aspects of these revolutions that makes them such a powerful & potentially positive force in the Arab world (in a way that democracy in Iraq has not been) is that they are & are seen to be indigenous movements. It is the example of people taking back power for themselves that makes this movement such a threat to autocrats. These people are not seen as the stooges of outside forces, be they the US or Al Qaeda. Sending in western troops in even small numbers threatens this image.

                  Such help as can be rendcered needs to be very carefully deployed. The US used its influence in Egyot to good effect, depite accusations that not enough was being done. This revolution has to be handled carefully too.
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                  • #39
                    Dago,for the sake of argument,why do you want to interfere in Libyan internal affairs?
                    Those who know don't speak
                    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Dago View Post
                      Do you know the type of munitions their mirage's and MIG type aircraft utilize? I am sorry if I disagree. But anyone who sets foot in a jet, I am sure strive for a bit of perfectionism.
                      Thus far, 500lbs dumb bombs which has been missing targets twice as often as hitting anything.

                      Originally posted by Dago View Post
                      I am sure, that they would distance them selfs. However, I don't think that would be concern of us, our desire isn't US hemorrhage in the region. I think, avoiding civilian casualties might triumph any other interests. And secondly, who said there would be any contact. Simply a no-fly zone, wouldn't need coordination.
                      What's the point? We're talking 2-3 500lb bombs per sortie once or twice a day. If the rebels can't take that kind of barrage, God help them when Libyan artillery opens up. Given such a low effectiveness of the Libyan sorties, a no fly zone would do more political damage to the US than military good.

                      Originally posted by Dago View Post
                      Foreign workers correct? But yes, I am sure there is a bit of US resentment and international resentment. There living standards are different than ours, I guess that entitles them a bit.
                      I'm stating outright that an American enforced no fly zone would do more political harm to the US than any military good for the rebels.

                      Originally posted by Dago View Post
                      I am sure, that the Libyan people can do that on there own. Or else, a drone or tomahawk cruise missile. He isn't as good as Saddam at evading. Yes, Libya is a big Country, but Tripoli is a small city. And thats the only place he can consolidate power. Also, the fact, that he would most likely be given up. He doesn't have loyalists like the bathists. Maybe Iblame it on his character. Or his lack of military victories. Or maybe, that's just how Libyans are different from Iraqi's.
                      He has his tribe which as of now are still mobilizing for reconquest.

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by citanon View Post
                        Col, what do you think the chances of success are for an Afghanistan style SOF led campaign in Libya?
                        None. We be broke before we can bribe enough people not to support Qadaffy.

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          Thus far, 500lbs dumb bombs which has been missing targets twice as often as hitting anything.

                          What's the point? We're talking 2-3 500lb bombs per sortie once or twice a day. If the rebels can't take that kind of barrage, God help them when Libyan artillery opens up. Given such a low effectiveness of the Libyan sorties, a no fly zone would do more political damage to the US than military good.

                          I'm stating outright that an American enforced no fly zone would do more political harm to the US than any military good for the rebels.

                          He has his tribe which as of now are still mobilizing for reconquest.
                          Sir,

                          I have heard that he is using transports to fly in mercenaries from the South. If this is true then it might be worth takng the political hit involved in grounding them.

                          I have also heard (can't verify) that Ghaddafi's tribe is quite small and that the larer tribes have all loined the rebels. this might not matter if his people are well enough motivated & trained, but provided the rebels hold their nerve (which they have done so far, even under duress) then they have a good chance of prevailng.
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                          • #43
                            et al,

                            I'm a bit confused.

                            I know that there is probably no question that Moammar Qaddafi has been less than a sterling leader, and that very few would argue that his legitimacy to continue as Libyan Leader is in question.

                            Having said that, he is Libyian. He is in power because other Libyans fight for and protect him.

                            It is Libyans that fly the planes that drop the bombs on other Libyans.

                            It is up to the Libyans to decide --- who is going to lead them into the 21st Century. It is a Libyan-on-Libyan event. They are deciding their own fate and chosing thier own destiny. Let them do it. The Western Nations should stay out and not intervene in the internal decisions being made by the Libyan people.

                            When the smoke clears, and the destiny is chosen, then there will time enough for the Western World to help. But first, the Libyans must make their decision.

                            Just One Man's Opinion,
                            R

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                            • #44
                              Rocco,

                              I agree with your sentiment, but with one caveat. Apparently quite a bit of the brutalizing & killing has been done by African mercenaries, some from former conflict zones where Ghaddafi was involved over the last 20 years. While no one is suggesting that these men are any more tha na part of the fores protecting the dictator, they are an outside element brought in to stop what now appears to be a clear majority of Libyans from ending a tyranny. I don't think that makes the case for western troops, but some form of less intrusinve assistance is certainly justifiable.
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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by rj1 View Post
                                5.I also debate the soundness in logic, even if Gaddafi is a bad guy and it'd be best for us if he were gone, of entangling ourselves in what at this point is de facto a Libyan civil war. Once we help break something, we have to help fix it as occurred in Iraq and Afghanistan...
                                You know, the way the Mongols and the Brits got a response, was to subjugate the powers that be by being totally blunt with the use of the force. Then Relax, then when it flared up again, repeat the occasions. The locals soon learnt that if they didn't misbehave, within their own power structure, then their cities wouldn't get burnt.

                                Stuff hanging around and trying to fix a countries social structure by re-creating some gold standard government... Just do what you need to do to take care of no.1.
                                Ego Numquam

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