Chances of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherood taking power?

[bigross86]

And since when have logic and religious fundamentalism gone hand in hand?

[NeilE]

There will be incentives offered by the US & others for good behaviour. What the Egyptians need most right now is money. The party that can bring in the most wins. Everybody knows this.

That's strike #2 against the MB.

So long as MB act as progressively as they talk then I really can't see the US isolating them and cutting off aid. America needs a US supporting government in Egypt and MB know this. However MB are also aware that they'll need to do business with America in order to appease their military and secure US military aid.
Both sides have too much to lose by not making concessions and doing business with one another.

Who says the MB is the best at this game ? All the MB has going for them is they are a religious party, what else ?

Well thats not entirely true. Whilst they are most definitely a religious driven party, that is not all they offer. From reports I've read, the Muslim Brootherhood's membership seems to be inaudated with young lawyers, doctors and other professionals - they are a highly educated organization for the most part. Whether that will translate into the MB being adept in government however remains to be seen.

So what is the best outcome here ? Do those Arab leaders try to throw more money at the MB than the west can at other parties in the hope things do not work out in Egypt and they get a longer lease of life.

To be honest, I personally think that Arab leaders are more afraid of the MB coming to power and doing a good job. MB are active in every arab country and they are mostly young, religious and educated. Should the MB come to power in Egypt and do well then I can see support for MB governments in other Arab countries swelling and challenging the current Arab leaders.

However if a US-backed candidate does well, so what? The Arab leaders will describe him as an American stooge and owing to the anti-American sentiment prevalent in many of these Arab countries the people will stubbornly refuse to point to any US-backed candidate's success as inspiration for a revolution.

Supporting the MB would be hugely detrimental for Arab leaders who want to continue their stranglehold on their respective countries. As it stands, Arab leaders are able to supress the MB movement in their countries irrespective of whether a branch of the MB in Egypt do poorly in government or not. There is really nothing for them to gain by taking the risk that MB will actually do a good job and gain even more widespread support in their countries.

The best outcome for Arab leaders is to throw money at western candidates and hope they fail spectacularly. However even if they succeed it is still a better prospect than the MB succeeding. Supporting a US-backed candidate for the reasons outlined above is a much less risky strategy for Arab autocratic governments than supporting the MB in my opinion.

All that said however I am not entirely convinced that the MB are as progressive as they claim. I am not overly worried though as I doubt they will be the leading party in the government anyway.

[Double Edge]

And since when have logic and religious fundamentalism gone hand in hand?

They don't.

My statements were couched in terms of Egypt's national interest and am having trouble seeing what role religious fundamentalism plays in it.

[Double Edge]

So long as MB act as progressively as they talk then I really can't see the US isolating them and cutting off aid. America needs a US supporting government in Egypt and MB know this. However MB are also aware that they'll need to do business with America in order to appease their military and secure US military aid.
Both sides have too much to lose by not making concessions and doing business with one another.

You introduce the possibility of a moderate MB here. The situation & circumstances demand it. Thats more in the mould of the presently ruling Turkish AKP.

Well thats not entirely true. Whilst they are most definitely a religious driven party, that is not all they offer. From reports I've read, the Muslim Brootherhood's membership seems to be inaudated with young lawyers, doctors and other professionals - they are a highly educated organization for the most part. Whether that will translate into the MB being adept in government however remains to be seen.

Yes, they do have professionals but this was when they were the only game in town. Will they be able to hold onto them when other political parties emerge. What i'm trying to say is the MB had currency when Mubarak was present, as they were seen to be persecuted by his regime. Remove Mubarak, and that sentimental backdrop goes away, MB appear just like any other party.

I feel a lot of the reports on the MB and their chances of success in the future are based on ex-ante reasoning.

To be honest, I personally think that Arab leaders are more afraid of the MB coming to power and doing a good job. MB are active in every arab country and they are mostly young, religious and educated. Should the MB come to power in Egypt and do well then I can see support for MB governments in other Arab countries swelling and challenging the current Arab leaders.

Supporting the MB would be hugely detrimental for Arab leaders who want to continue their stranglehold on their respective countries. As it stands, Arab leaders are able to supress the MB movement in their countries irrespective of whether a branch of the MB in Egypt do poorly in government or not. There is really nothing for them to gain by taking the risk that MB will actually do a good job and gain even more widespread support in their countries.

The best outcome for Arab leaders is to throw money at western candidates and hope they fail spectacularly. However even if they succeed it is still a better prospect than the MB succeeding. Supporting a US-backed candidate for the reasons outlined above is a much less risky strategy for Arab autocratic governments than supporting the MB in my opinion.

Good, so it would appear that the Arab leaders supporting a western backed party is in their interest as well. Thats strike #3 for the MB :)

However if a US-backed candidate does well, so what? The Arab leaders will describe him as an American stooge and owing to the anti-American sentiment prevalent in many of these Arab countries the people will stubbornly refuse to point to any US-backed candidate's success as inspiration for a revolution.

ok, though a lot is riding on them suceeding as well. Either way its beginning to look like the dawn of a new era in the Arab world.

All that said however I am not entirely convinced that the MB are as progressive as they claim. I am not overly worried though as I doubt they will be the leading party in the government anyway.

Agree. They claim to have got 30% during the Mubarak era and stated without rigging they would have touched 50%. I have my doubts in a post Mubarak era whether they might even get 30%.

[Double Edge]

Tarek Masoud, of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, talks to Steve Inskeep of NPR on the MB, earlier this month.

What Is Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood?

Masoud has an curious way to characterise the MB, he talks about the difference between 'an extremism of means' vs 'an extremism of ends', saying the MB fits the latter more than the former.

Masoud: there's two kinds of extremism. OK, there's an extremism of ends and an extremism of means. OK.

Extremism of means is if they're willing if they want to use violence to get what they want. I certainly think they are not that.

Extremism of ends, do they want things that we think are really, you know, out of the norm? I think a lot of them do, but again, you know, you let them participate in the political process and you hopefully beat them.

I think and there's evidence that the brothers, as Dr. ElBaradei said, would not necessarily capture a majority of votes in Egypt, although they are a very strong and organized party. But, you know, there's other ideological trends and we're seeing them being played out right now on the Egyptian street.

[Goat]

Just this week I attended "Egypt - After the Revolution," by Michele Dunne of the Carnegie Endowment for Int'l Peace. As an "applied smart power" global security guy, I postulated to her that the Muslim Brotherhood capturing more political legitimacy might be a good thing for international stability, in terms of domesticating their more extreme positions through the weight of the responsibility that accompanies rule.

She replied that although they haven't been permitted to form a party, their "independent" candidates have maintained a presence in governance for some time. She also pointed out that during recent discussions on Constitutional revision, they did not seek to change the current article banning religious parties. Furthermore, they have made assurances not to seek more than 30% of any election's seats, so that they will not cause the panic that MB will seek the two-thirds number required to control internal votes.

In Dr. Dunne's opinion, the group is intent on staying strong and growing in a measured way that does not excite resistance from more democratically-minded bodies. She half-jokingly said that the Brotherhood has a "100-year plan" for eventual control of Egypt.

In my opinion, that's a perfectly acceptable picture of democracy in action. While I would not like to see any fundamentalist interpretation of a religion (with its corresponding misogyny, bigotry and draconian punishment) in charge of a state, that will ultimately be in the hands of voting Egyptian citizens. And that's a right of democratic citizenship.

In closing, also in my opinion, the Muslim Brotherhood enjoyed some of its popularity only because it served as a counterweight to the un-democratic abuses of a dictatorial regime. The people, particularly the young, have rarely had any interest in subjugating one another beneath harsh codes, brutality and amputation...but when the alternative is secret police, torture and arbitrary executions, the lesser evil will be the one with some form of order. That said, the removal of a tyrant like this does not lend itself to popularizing a traditional opposition party, but to finally expose all of its own warts and send the people further into the arms of democracy. If the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't update its views to match the will of the people, it will sooner or later fade to a marginalized hard core of bitter, old men who long for the good old days.

- Rob

[bigross86]

If what she said about the MB is true, especially regarding the self-imposed 30% limit, I see nothing at all wrong with the MB. As an Israeli, my main concern, as always, is the peace treaty, followed closely by Egyptian support on the Gaza issue

[Double Edge]

Its taken me a while to get through this hearing but i thought it was very informative & objective given the panel. There is a lot of misunderstanding about the mulsim brotherhood that this hearing seeks to clarify. In one of those rare hearings by the house intelligence committee this one was deemed an open one.

House Subcommittee on Terrorism, HUMINT, Analysis, and Counterintelligence: "Muslim Brotherhood” | Apr 13, 2011

I found the testimony of Ahmed Shaby Mansour interesting in how the MB started. He happens to be a Quranist and holds the Quran above Sharia which he considers man made and not that authoritative.

Now there is problem with the websteam on that page, only provided it as it has the testimonies of the expert panel convened. The webstream can be found on C-Span's coverage of the same, here