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Thread: Impact of Arab Revolutions on Israel

  1. #31
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castellano View Post
    Insulted, only if the 1.6 billion people you are talking about are racists.


    I actually followed the framing of the thread, which, if you noticed, basically stated "Arab" Unity = Israel is F_cked; which is codeword for Genocide; which in turn reminded me of the Arab League with the help of the Chinese government enabling a racial Genocide in Darfur.

    If we are gonna go for the Genghis Khan school of thought, and I disagree with the whole premise, at least let's call this stuff for what it is.
    I think they need to issue launching codes for the R-bomb.

    Come on, even if IDF(which incidentally has more combat power than the Arab League+Iran combined) goes bust,there's still little chance for the Holocaust.First,there are the Israeli nukes.Second ,there is the option of another exile.So even in theory there could be some sort of population displacement.Still a far cry from mass killings.
    Btw,C,did you hear there is a new warrior order called the Knights of Sion?You could fit in very well (that's a joke,if someone doesn't get it).
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  2. #32
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    Let's look at the numbers, shall we?

    As of 2007, the regular Iranian Army was estimated to have 465,000 personnel (235,000 conscripts and 230,000 professionals) plus around 350,000 reservists for a total of 815,000 soldiers

    Israel has 187,000 active personnel and 445,000 reserve personnel for a total of 632,000 soldiers.

    How does that fir your claim that the IDF
    incidentally has more combat power than the Arab League+Iran combined
    ?

    To me, 200,000 soldiers is a decent sized advantage, even if they are untrained men with AK-47's
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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castellano View Post
    It means exactly what I stated. But maybe you want to challenge my observation.
    So Arabs and Chinese are somehow more racist than say the Germans and Japanese and countless others?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigross86 View Post
    Let's look at the numbers, shall we?

    As of 2007, the regular Iranian Army was estimated to have 465,000 personnel (235,000 conscripts and 230,000 professionals) plus around 350,000 reservists for a total of 815,000 soldiers

    Israel has 187,000 active personnel and 445,000 reserve personnel for a total of 632,000 soldiers.

    How does that fir your claim that the IDF ?

    To me, 200,000 soldiers is a decent sized advantage, even if they are untrained men with AK-47's
    Well, a 25% combat advantage isn't very much if you have to travel 1000km to get at the other guy, who has Merkava IVs and F-15Es while the best you have to tool around is in T-72s and F-14s. It just means more mouths to feed.

  5. #35
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigross86 View Post
    Let's look at the numbers, shall we?

    As of 2007, the regular Iranian Army was estimated to have 465,000 personnel (235,000 conscripts and 230,000 professionals) plus around 350,000 reservists for a total of 815,000 soldiers

    Israel has 187,000 active personnel and 445,000 reserve personnel for a total of 632,000 soldiers.

    How does that fir your claim that the IDF ?

    To me, 200,000 soldiers is a decent sized advantage, even if they are untrained men with AK-47's
    Ben, the Arabs and Iranians have weak logistical capabilities in attacking Israel. If every single Islamic state in the world were, through some strange twist of fate, to gang up on Israel in some warped anti-Protocols of the Elders of Zion jihad, Israel can sit back and pick them off one at a time.

    It's as if China were to send over 300,000,000 troops to the United States in cargo ships that generally deliver goods made in Chinese factories to LA, Seattle, San Fran, Vancouver, San Diego, etc.

    300,000,000 is effectively zero if the US just picks off one cargo ship at a time, sinking 50,000 soldiers per cargo ship with a single guided bomb. The United States would thus be protected by the breadth of the Pacific and have to fly 6000 sorties minimum from aircraft carriers, Pacific Islands, Hawaii, and the West Coast of the United States.

    Asymmetrical warfare at its finest.

    The analogy isn't entirely correct with regards to Israel - I use it to make my point.

    A push to eliminate Israel takes overt planning and preparation, which means the advantage lies with Israel, in my opinion. With the exception of insurgent and guerilla warfare, conventional warfare against Israel takes time and preparation that is as clear as night and day to see. That is how Israel won every Arab-Israeli war.
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  6. #36
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigross86 View Post
    Let's look at the numbers, shall we?

    As of 2007, the regular Iranian Army was estimated to have 465,000 personnel (235,000 conscripts and 230,000 professionals) plus around 350,000 reservists for a total of 815,000 soldiers

    Israel has 187,000 active personnel and 445,000 reserve personnel for a total of 632,000 soldiers.

    How does that fir your claim that the IDF ?

    To me, 200,000 soldiers is a decent sized advantage, even if they are untrained men with AK-47's

    BR,you can't be serious.I say just this:OIF. And come on,a little appreciation is due.I valued one of yours to be worth 3-4 of theirs.I make your PR and you jump on me?

    Btw,you did nice with similar number ratios a while back.You tell me you are lesser men then your daddies and granpa's?Are they much improved wrt manpower?
    Last edited by Mihais; 30 Jan 11, at 00:49.
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  7. #37
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    How hard would it be for Iran to stage it's troops out of Syria/Lebanon and use them as Forward Operating Bases? The distance between Syria/Lebanon and Israel is much shorter than the distance between Iran and Israel, I guarantee you. If Iran was to lend even half of it's military might to Syria and Lebanon it would not be a question of picking them off one by one, it would be massive waves of oncoming enemy soldiers.

    Unfortunately, and this is how it's been for quite a while now, Israel depends on quick and decisive US action in an all out war, for resupply of war material if nothing else. Unfortunately, with the current administration in the US, I don't see the same decisiveness as the Operation Nickel Grass airlift.

    Let me get this clear: I am not by a long shot stating that another holocaust will break out. However, according to Rabinovich, in 1973 there were approximately 1 million troops aggregate poised against the IDF from Egypt, Syria and Expeditionary forces, while Israel had approximately 415,000 soldiers. In 1973 Israel lost over 2,000 soldiers in 19 days.

    Now let's look at modern numbers. We've already established that Israel has 632,000 soldiers and Iran 815,000. Lebanon has 60,000 and Syria has 480,000. (These are all numbers from Wikipedia and other internet sources, so they need to be taken with a grain of salt, but they are more or less accurate, one would assume). Toss in Hezbollah with another 10,000 combatants. So let's look at the revised forces, with half the Iranian Army sent to join in the fun. The IDF's 632,000 Vs a combined 957,500. Let's figure that the entire Syrian and Lebanese armies won't be sent, only 75% will be sent, and that Israel will only have 25% available since they still need forces to protect the Egyptian border and for the Palestinian uprisings that will surely accompany an all out assault by 3 nations on Israel: Now we have the IDF's 474,000 Vs a combined 822,500 (assuming Hezbollah uses their entire strength). The IDF is now outnumbered by almost 400,000 soldiers, even if they are untrained men with AK-47's.

    Let's take it one step further, and Mubarak is actually overthrown and Egypt decides to ignore their peace treaty with Israel. Egypt adds another 947,500 soldiers to the mix. 75% of that will be 710,625. Now we're looking at the IDF's entire 632,000 vs 1,533,125. Israel is outnumbered by almost 900,000 troops, even if they are untrained men with AK-47's, which they won't be, since Egypt has M1 Abrams tanks and other advanced gear.

    Give the almost 1:3 disadvantage Israel will be at given this extreme scenario, even the fact that Israel has Merkava 4 MBT's and F-15I and F-16I fighters won't make that much of a difference. Do you think the US will send forces to stand by Israel's side? Doubtful. Your container ship theory doesn't work here, either, since it can be easily defeated with a coordinated attack. In 1973 the Syrians almost broke through the entire IDF lines and had the route to Haifa and further south wide open to them. Moreover, as opposed to 1973, Israel does not have the entire Sinai as a buffer zone, nor the Suez Canal as a natural obstacle.

    Edited to add: How many Expeditionary forces will join the fray? 1973 saw 100,000 of them, assumedly many from Iran. Since this number is not really quantifiable, we can arbitrarily subtract 50,000 Iranian soldiers from the 1973 level and still have 50,000 Expeditionary forces that will join to fight against Israel. Being outnumbered by nearly a million troops is nobody's version of a walk in the park.

    Now that we have the numbers right in front of us, do you see why Israel has every right to be worried?
    Last edited by bigross86; 30 Jan 11, at 01:31.
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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    BR,you can't be serious.I say just this:OIF. And come on,a little appreciation is due.I valued one of yours to be worth 3-4 of theirs.I make your PR and you jump on me?

    Btw,you did nice with similar number ratios a while back.You tell me you are lesser men then your daddies and granpa's?Are they much improved wrt manpower?
    OIF and an invasion of Israel would be massively different, if only because of the vast difference in size between Iraq and Israel, and the presence of the Palestinians, a natural enemy that would seize the advantage and cause chaos and havoc inside Israel proper, drawing IDF troops away from the borders, something else OIF lacked.

    It's not a question of lesser men or not, it's a question of logistics over anything else. Iran can stage out of it's vassal states in Syria/Lebanon while Israel is dependent on a massive airlift from the US, which I've raised doubts about given the current Administration.

    Just as a side topic, how many people in the UN will condemn Israel for senseless violence or a preemptive strike in case of war? Let's get realistic here. Aside from the belligerents I can count on Erdogan in Turkey and Chavez in Venezuela to jump in against Israel almost immediately.
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  9. #39
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    this thread demonstrates some -very- american idealistic thinking-- the idea that revolutions against a dictatorship is always a good thing, soon democracy and human rights will come, let freedom ring!

    there is nothing further from the truth. revolutions have a -very- big tendency to be seized by the most extreme, by the most organized, and by the most ruthless. this is not an "arab" thing, see what happened during the french revolution. see what happened to the parliamentarians during the chinese revolution. here, the most extremist will be the religious organizations. if mubarak goes i am very nervous as to what the new egypt will look like. even if it -does- become a democracy, this will be a place where anti-israeli feeling will run wild, and where the muslim brotherhood will have a significant voice.
    Yup.

    This is one of those 'be careful what you wish for' moments. Our best hope is that the people who eventually take charge metaphorically have posters of Erdogan on their walls rather than Khomenei (or Mullah Omar). Erdogan may be the baddie de jour in the US & Israel (and among Turkey's committed secularists), but there are islamists who see him as proof that democracy & political islam can coexist. I'm hoping some of them end up in charge, but assuming there are any more regime changes I'm not confident that will be the case.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Revolutionaries never remember their friends but always their enemies.
    This is exactly the first thing that come up in my mind.
    The revolution will bring change if they are able to maintain their momentum and make Mubarak step down though they are short of an opposition figure. Will this spread wider to the Arab world ie Jordan, Yemen is yet to be seen.
    But this change is not necessarily a good thing for Israel, or the world, and i concur heavily on the fluffy fuzzy euphoria of figthing oppression for freedom and democracy. Like the case of Iran, many said if Ahmedinejad step down, Iran will not suddenly turn up to be a new good boy in the middle east and make friends with every one.
    This incident and ongoing protests in Egypt have to be examined and watched closely by Israel, and if things indeed spread wider, prepare for a storm of change.

    Israel, the US, and the western world (pardon the generalizing) are really short on trust in the Arab and muslim world. I am confident 7 out of 10 average Joe muslims here in my country (the so called moderate and democratic) will hate the US or Israel for no apparent reason or excuse (pardon the generalization again).

    I believe that might also be the case in other muslim countries, just hope that i'm wrong

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by castellano View Post
    i actually followed the framing of the thread, which, if you noticed, basically stated "arab" unity = israel is f_cked; which is codeword for genocide; which in turn reminded me of the arab league with the help of the chinese government enabling a racial genocide in darfur.
    Crapface, I would strongly appreciated if you do not re-interrupt my freaking words and try to say what i never said in the first place!

    I know you pretend to know a hell of a lot but you know less than crap all when it comes to military matters!

    Arab disunity has always been an Israeli strong-point. That strong point more than likely is now gone!

  12. #42
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Arab disunity has always been an Israeli strong-point. That strong point more than likely is now gone!
    I would say the disunity had subsided in the heat of the revolutionary fervor. Right now the Arab people are one, but the divisions will no doubt resume. I do not see a United Arab States arising out of this movement.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  13. #43
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigross86 View Post
    How hard would it be for Iran to stage it's troops out of Syria/Lebanon and use them as Forward Operating Bases? The distance between Syria/Lebanon and Israel is much shorter than the distance between Iran and Israel, I guarantee you. If Iran was to lend even half of it's military might to Syria and Lebanon it would not be a question of picking them off one by one, it would be massive waves of oncoming enemy soldiers.
    Ben - the analogy I wrote was just that -- the moves by the Arab actors and Iran would have to be exactly coordinated for it to succeed. The anti-Israeli Arab actors and Iran can indeed wreak havoc and chaos inside Israel.

    You've addressed the issues of the Palestinians - I think it is time to bring this issue to the fore. I think there should be a more hurried, negotiated agreement in which there are land swaps with heavily Israeli areas adjacent to the Israeli border inside the West Bank, in exchange for Arab-populated towns adjacent to the West Bank in Israel.

    Israel has spent too long holding onto territory it can never integrate into the Israeli state - if one holds people as if they are sand, they will slip through your fingers. As far as the Israeli state is concerned, the occupation of the West Bank is like a cancer that is eating Israel alive. Time for a strategic withdrawal.

    I believe it needs to be a joint Israeli-Jordanian move in securing the situation in preventing outside actors such as Syria and Iran from meddling in the process. This process should be fully funded and supported by the US and EU. It will be painful, but I believe it is one of the best strategies in dealing with this situation.

    If Israel seizes the moment and divorces itself from the Palestinian issue in a pragmatic and practical fashion (as I believe my proposal would accomplish), then Israel has undercut the democratic revolutionary forces in the Arab states that have a bone to pick with Israel, and badly undercut the legitimacy and reputation of Al-Qaeda/Jihadi-sympathizing elements in those states that shape public opinion against Israel, thus making it possible for Israel to switch from Western-backed dictators (e.g. Egypt) to genuine democratic leaders (whom I believe El-Baradei as having the potential of being).

    While the Israeli-Jordanian initiative is underway, undertake limited mobilization in the northern areas to prevent Iranian-backed elements in Syria and Lebanon from undertaking actions that would disrupt and destabilize northern Israel and its position in the Golan Heights, and enable Israel to carry out policies in the West Bank.

    Mahmoud Abbas and the moderate Palestinian factions would also need to have their legitimacy and reputation strongly reinforced by Israel, Jordan, the US, and the EU in this process.

    It's a shell game - Israel has a card to play here, there are many correct ones, but one of them is an ace.

    I believe it would be a win-win, positive-sum policy for Israel, Jordan, the West Bank Palestinians, the Arab democratic revolutionary forces, and would check the ambitions/strength of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah of Lebanon, and Assad of Syria.
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  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I do not see a United Arab States arising out of this movement.
    Neither do I but by the same token, the Israelis can no longer count on an uncoordinated Arab effort.

  15. #45
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    Which is exactly the point I'm trying to get across. Looking at the extreme worst case scenario, Israel is in a very, very bad position when it comes to the numbers game.

    I'm actually very surprised the Palestinians haven't taken note and started rioting themselves...
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