Revolution in Egypt and the wider Arab world?

[Skywatcher]

tantalus, et al,

I'm in Sanaa now.

(COMMENT)

These countries all have similarities; but I tend to think (I get the feel) that it was contagious and more spontaneous; inspirational.

Most Respectively,
R

Wonder if it will spread to Iran, given the mounting economic pressure there. The Basiji will get crushed by the Artesh if it ever comes to that.

[Ironduke]

Looks like the movement is gaining momentum:

Egypt protests: Curfew in cities as army deployed

Egypt has extended its curfew to all cities as anti-government demonstrators in Cairo besiege key buildings, including the foreign ministry and the state broadcaster.

The headquarters of the governing NDP party has been set ablaze.

President Hosni Mubarak, facing the biggest challenge to his authority of his 31 years in power, has ordered the army onto the streets of Cairo.

Earlier, it was announced he would make a statement, but he is yet to appear.

BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner said: "Every minute that goes by without the president making that address to the nation makes him look weaker and will convince people he is losing his grip."
Military helicopters

Across the country, tens of thousands of protesters turned out after Friday prayers and clashed with police.

The curfew is now in effect, but live television pictures from Cairo continue to show large crowds on the streets.

Correspondents in Cairo say military helicopters are circling overhead.

Some of those breaking the curfew targeted the state broadcasting building, which is guarded by the armed forces.

Also targeted was the headquarters of the ruling NDP party - a major symbol of President Mubarak's rule regime. The BBC's Wyre Davies reported from Cairo that there was no sign of the police or military as the building was enveloped in flames.

Demonstrators have been cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people, correspondents say.

Internet and phone services - both mobile and landline - have been severely disrupted, although protesters are using proxies to work around the restrictions.

Mobile operator Vodafone Egypt said in a statement that it was obliged by law to suspend services at the request of the authorities.

Reports say Egyptian opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei has been placed under house arrest. Earlier, he was soaked by water cannon and surrounded by police as he joined protesters on the streets of Cairo.

In Sinai, BBC Arabic said its sources reported that Bedouins were besieging a police station and armed men had taken control of the road leading to Rafah, in the Palestinian territory of Gaza.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has appealed to Egypt to do "everything" to restrain the security forces, urging the government to reverse its block on mobile phone and internet communications.

She also said the protesters should not use violence.

The US counts Egypt as an ally in the Middle East and has so far been cautious about taking sides. However, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Washington would review its aid to Egypt based on events in the coming days.

Egypt is the fourth largest recipient of American aid, after Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel.

Meanwhile, the US is advising its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Egypt, and several airlines - including Egyptian and BA - have cancelled or rescheduled flights.
Inspired by Tunisia

At least eight people have been killed and hundreds injured since the protests against unemployment, corruption and rising prices began on Tuesday. Up to 1,000 people have been arrested.

The unrest follows an uprising in Tunisia two weeks ago, in which President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was toppled after 23 years in power.

Source: BBC News
BBC News - Egypt protests: Curfew in cities as army deployed

[haim357]

it sounds like it's game over for Mubarak, Keep your fingers crossed that if the regime is overthrown that the Muslim Brotherhood the most organized opposition group in Egypt don't take power. That would be bad,

[zraver]

I keep seeing ghosts of 1989/90. I just hope the MB does not wrest control and Egypt can embrace effective representative government.

[xinhui]

full coverage in all major Chinese media, it is somewhat of a surprise to me
???????????[????]_????_???

[Mihais]

Feels pretty good being the only (relatively) stable country in the region. Maybe the US will cut us some slack now...

Yeah,here's a pat on the back.Now go check the Merkava Mk4,soldier.You'll need it.Btw,do you need any trained infantrymen?

[NSmilie]

it sounds like it's game over for Mubarak, Keep your fingers crossed that if the regime is overthrown that the Muslim Brotherhood the most organized opposition group in Egypt don't take power. That would be bad,

Depends on how much support they have and whether they can gather enough public support. I wonder how much involvement we are going to see from groups like Al-Qaeda? Just thought about this, does anyone have numbers on how much support the MB actually has in the country?

[Mihais]

I keep seeing ghosts of 1989/90. I just hope the MB does not wrest control and Egypt can embrace effective representative government.

They are a$$holes,but they are yours(and by extent ours).If we're talking in human terms I agree they deserve to go to hell.If we talk realpolitik,no thanks to representative government.Like it or not.

[Skywatcher]

Mubarak just dissolved Parliament. A

Anyhow, the Army is not going to let the MB take over the country.

[Mihais]

You are assuming that somehow the army is a big deal.If you mean the upper echelons you may be correct.But I doubt the lower echelons ahve seen anything but corrpution,abuse of power and incompetence on the part of their superiors.Just because the Army is not allowed to talk about doesn't mean they won't arrive at the same conclusions at the same time.Their army is a cosncript one in a large part and that means the bulk of the army is not isolated from the problems of the rest of the nation.They may obey,to a point.Then they will change sides.Don't forget that today some policemen fraternized with the protesters and the police are,as a rule,even more inclined than the military in defending the establishment.
Like Z said,it may be 1989 again.I've seen the movie(to be fair,I've seen a LOT of movies and I've interviewed a LOT of actors in that particular event) .At that time I was more interested in other things than world politics(toys,diapers and the like )

[Skywatcher]

You are assuming that somehow the army is a big deal.If you mean the upper echelons you may be correct.But I doubt the lower echelons ahve seen anything but corrpution,abuse of power and incompetence on the part of their superiors.Just because the Army is not allowed to talk about doesn't mean they won't arrive at the same conclusions at the same time.Their army is a cosncript one in a large part and that means the bulk of the army is not isolated from the problems of the rest of the nation.They may obey,to a point.Then they will change sides.Don't forget that today some policemen fraternized with the protesters and the police are,as a rule,even more inclined than the military in defending the establishment.
Like Z said,it may be 1989 again.I've seen the movie(to be fair,I've seen a LOT of movies and I've interviewed a LOT of actors in that particular event) .At that time I was more interested in other things than world politics(toys,diapers and the like )

I was thinking in respect to the Muslim Brotherhood trying to sneak in a takeover like 1979 in Iran (they don't exactly have a charismatic leader like Khomenei).

I agree that the rank and file of the Egyptian Army cannot be relied on to shoot at protestors (if I was Mubarak, I certainly wouldn't take that risk).

[S2]

"...Mubarak just dissolved Parliament."

Could you provide links or, at least, cite sources? MSNBC reported that Mubarak dissolved his cabinet.

Mubarak On T.V. Demands Cabinet Resignations-MSNBC Jan. 28, 2011

Don't know if the M.B. is actively involved. Don't know that they need to be. All you need to know is that it's Friday and trouble started today after the gatherings at mosques around the city.

[S2]

"At that time I was more interested in other things than world politics(toys,diapers and the like )"

You are forgiven. Don't go all mercenary now but, yeah, bigross had best get down to the motorpool and make his Merkava all spiffy. We might be finding out how Merkavas and M-1s handle each other sooner than we'd like.

[Skywatcher]

Sorry sir, I thought I had linked the CNN site.

In another boost to the protest movement, the country's largest opposition group -- the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood -- also threw its support behind the demonstrations. If the group's backers join the protests on Friday, it could swell the numbers on the streets significantly. But the group has stopped short of an outright call for its backers to turn out.

The Muslim Brotherhood called on its website for protests to remain peaceful. It also called for new parliamentary elections under judicial supervision, the introduction of far-reaching reforms and the lifting of emergency laws in force since 1981.

The Brotherhood made a surprisingly strong showing in parliamentary elections in 2005, when it won 20 percent of seats and served as the main opposition bloc in the legislature. In the latest parliament elections held in November, the Brotherhood failed to win even a single seat. It decried widespread fraud by the ruling party and boycotted the runoffs.

Read more: FoxNews.com - Nobel Peace Winner Returns to Egypt to Lead Anti-Government Protest Movement

The MB jumped on the boat a little late, so them trying to latter make any claims of having 'led' the revolution like the ayatollahs did in 1979 would look very fishy to the Egyptians.

[S2]

A Manifesto For Change In Egypt-Mohammed elBaradei DAILY BEAST Jan. 29, 2011

"When Egypt had parliamentary elections only two months ago, they were completely rigged. The party of President Hosni Mubarak left the opposition with only 3 percent of the seats. Imagine that. And the American government said that it was “dismayed.” Well, frankly, I was dismayed that all it could say is that it was dismayed. The word was hardly adequate to express the way the Egyptian people felt.

Then, as protests built in the streets of Egypt following the overthrow of Tunisia’s dictator, I heard Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s assessment that the government in Egypt is “stable” and “looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people”. I was flabbergasted—and I was puzzled. What did she mean by stable, and at what price? Is it the stability of 29 years of “emergency” laws, a president with imperial power for 30 years, a parliament that is almost a mockery, a judiciary that is not independent? Is that what you call stability? I am sure not. And I am positive that it is not the standard you apply to other countries. What we see in Egypt is pseudo-stability, because real stability only comes with a democratically elected government.

If you would like to know why the United States does not have credibility in the Middle East, that is precisely the answer. People were absolutely disappointed in the way you reacted to Egypt’s last election. You reaffirmed their belief that you are applying a double standard for your friends, and siding with an authoritarian regime just because you think it represents your interests. We are staring at social disintegration, economic stagnation, political repression, and we do not hear anything from you, the Americans, or for that matter from the Europeans.

So when you say the Egyptian government is looking for ways to respond to the needs of the Egyptian people, I feel like saying, “Well, it’s too late!” This isn’t even good realpolitik. We have seen what happened in Tunisia, and before that in Iran. That should teach people there is no stability except when you have government freely chosen by its own people.

Of course, you in the West have been sold the idea that the only options in the Arab world are between authoritarian regimes and Islamic jihadists. That’s obviously bogus. If we are talking about Egypt, there is a whole rainbow variety of people who are secular, liberal, market-oriented, and if you give them a chance they will organize themselves to elect a government that is modern and moderate. They want desperately to catch up with the rest of the world."