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Debunking The 10:1 Ratio of Forces in COIN

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  • #46
    Pakistan is not interefering in any Chinese investment. After NATO leaves, Afghanistan will be at the mercy of Pakistan and their Talib proxies. Infact Chinese companies can get any contract that they choose after NATO leaves.

    Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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    • #47
      Originally posted by lemontree View Post
      Pakistan is not interefering in any Chinese investment. After NATO leaves, Afghanistan will be at the mercy of Pakistan and their Talib proxies. Infact Chinese companies can get any contract that they choose after NATO leaves.
      I don't think so, Captain for several reasons.

      The ANA is the most powerful Afghan force in Afghanistan. We're just holding them back from the traditional Afghan way of war. Once we leave, they will be unleashed.

      The Chinese have no love lost for the Taliban. They've suffered at the hands of the Taliban when they trained Xinjiang rebels.

      Russia and Iran are also two other players in Afghanistan. Both were busy with their own internal problems when the Taliban came to power. That is no longer the case.

      The Taliban hates all three with equal passion.

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      • #48
        Sorry to interrupt this enlightening discussion, but Colonel, how strong is the ANA currently? I was always under the impression that they're still not at the level of strength that the ISAF want them to be when they pull out, but I admit I've gathered little information about them beyond vague reports of "improvement" since the mid/late 2000s.
        "Draft beer, not people."

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        • #49
          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
          The ANA is the most powerful Afghan force in Afghanistan. We're just holding them back from the traditional Afghan way of war. Once we leave, they will be unleashed.
          Sir, but they are no comparison to the Taliban which was officered and manned by Pak army officers and NCOs till October 2001. When the Taliban come again, they will be commanded by professional Pak army officers and NCOs.

          The Chinese have no love lost for the Taliban. They've suffered at the hands of the Taliban when they trained Xinjiang rebels.
          Agreed, but the Chinese are depending on the Pak army to do their dirty work.
          Russia and Iran are also two other players in Afghanistan. Both were busy with their own internal problems when the Taliban came to power. That is no longer the case.
          The Taliban hates all three with equal passion.
          Sir, Taliban is not a separate entity but an extension of the Pak army/ ISI. Please dont confuse it to be a separate non-state actor.

          Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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          • #50
            Originally posted by lemontree View Post
            Sir, but they are no comparison to the Taliban which was officered and manned by Pak army officers and NCOs till October 2001. When the Taliban come again, they will be commanded by professional Pak army officers and NCOs.
            I wouldn't use that as a recruiting poster for the Pakistani Army. The Northern Alliance whacked them on more than a few occasions.

            However, Iranian and CAR Officers and NCMs are willing to take up a few slots.

            Originally posted by vsdoc View Post
            Agreed, but the Chinese are depending on the Pak army to do their dirty work.
            The Chinese have absolutely no illusions about the Taliban run by the Pakistani Army or not. They've accused Pakistan of at least failing to dislodge Xinjiang rebel training centres on Pakistan, if not outright colluding. A Taliban run Afghanistan would allow even more Xinjiang rebel camps with Pakistan turning a blind eye willingly or not.

            Originally posted by vsdoc View Post
            Sir, Taliban is not a separate entity but an extension of the Pak army/ ISI. Please dont confuse it to be a separate non-state actor.
            I don't but when it comes to blood lust, let lose the Afghan dogs of war.

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            • #51
              Thanks for the tip, S2.

              From memory, the 10:1 ratio included indigenous auxiliaries. If this is correct, it means you can really leverage yourself if you've got a just cause, good image (i.e. don't shell villages), and the reality of and reputation for stamina.

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                .....when it comes to blood lust, let lose the Afghan dogs of war.
                It may come to that sir. I just hope the Afghans are not left alone and India, Iran, and Russia do their bit to help them limp back as a nation.

                Cheers!...on the rocks!!

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by Red Team View Post
                  Sorry to interrupt this enlightening discussion, but Colonel, how strong is the ANA currently? I was always under the impression that they're still not at the level of strength that the ISAF want them to be when they pull out, but I admit I've gathered little information about them beyond vague reports of "improvement" since the mid/late 2000s.
                  I am not familiar with the situation other than what I read in the papers, but the ANA is reminding me more and more of ARVN every day.

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                  • #54
                    Oh c'mon we're talking about the country that has a long history of holding down foreign invaders, they can't be THAT bad.
                    "Draft beer, not people."

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                    • #55
                      No they're not that bad.They're worse.
                      Those who know don't speak
                      He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                      • #56
                        Take the ANA out of any post-ISAF/U.S. equation. What we're really discussing are two items, 1.) ethnic makeup of units and, 2.) anti-taliban enmity.

                        Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others

                        Officer 42.16% 40.98% 7.58% 4.08% 5.21%

                        NCO 48.78% 37.63% 8.47% 3.50% 1.62%

                        Soldier 43.42% 30.11% 10.43% 8.54% 7.50%

                        Total Force 44.70% 33.38% 9.58% 6.68% 5.66%

                        MOD Goal 44% 25% 10% 8% 13%
                        based on National Proportion

                        The Ministry of Defense shares percentages in rough proportion to the field force. The objective is to strengthen Pashtun, Uzbek and other minorities at the expense of Tajik and Hazara levels. That may or may not prove possible by 2014.

                        Meanwhile there's little denying that current forces are becoming increasing more capable and better-armed. Progress is uneven between the ANA and the ANP as well as among units within both organizations.

                        Here are three separate reads spanning since 2009

                        NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan (NTM-A) Ministry of Defense: A Year In Review-Jan. 23, 2011

                        The Long March: Building An Afghan Army-RAND 2009

                        Afghanistan Security-Afghan Army Growing But Additional Trainers Needed-GAO January 2011

                        Once civil war arrives (my prediction-although hardly alone), the multitude of well-armed, reasonably well-trained factions will suggest that the taliban will find great difficulty asserting control. Aside from traditional anti-Pashtun sentiment among tajiks, uzbeks, turkomen and Hazara, many pashtun tribes are hardly enamoured with the afghan taliban.

                        Though welcome, it would prove an unusual occurrence to see a viable nat'l government emerge. The traditional impetus against such seems overwhelming and there's no compelling evidence presented by the GIRoA to suggest otherwise.
                        Last edited by S2; 24 Nov 11,, 05:42.
                        "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                        "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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                        • #57
                          Marcus Pfister Reply

                          "I am not familiar with the situation other than what I read in the papers, but the ANA is reminding me more and more of ARVN every day."

                          I'm uncertain about the relevance of the ANA to this discussion. I doubt they'll prove serious practicioners of COIN principles as established within western military doctrine.

                          As such, we may be broaching thread de-railment.
                          "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                          "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by S2 View Post

                            Once civil war arrives (my prediction-although hardly alone), the multitude of well-armed, reasonably well-trained factions will suggest that the taliban will find great difficulty asserting control. Aside from traditional anti-Pashtun sentiment among tajiks, uzbeks, turkomen and Hazara, many pashtun tribes are hardly enamoured with the afghan taliban.

                            Though welcome, it would prove an unusual occurrence to see a viable nat'l government emerge. The traditional impetus against such seems overwhelming and there's no compelling evidence presented by the GIRoA to suggest otherwise.
                            Sir,the ANA may be better,but they're only that good because they have the foreign support.That this will continue after we're gone is something that can be doubted.Much can change between now and then.Vietnam is not a happy precedent.

                            Even if that doesn't happens,in absence of NATO combat units,the ANA alone cannot control the country.Many reasons.They'll be in a roughly similar position to the Soviet Army,only with less firepower,mobility assets and trained men.
                            But I agree there won't be a semblance of COIN after we depart.Just a lot of chaos and bloodshed.
                            Those who know don't speak
                            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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                            • #59
                              Mihais Reply

                              Not sure where we disagree. Maybe here-

                              "That this will continue after we're gone is something that can be doubted..."

                              Ummm..., I'll disagree here. The names will change and the visible nature of the support may change but there'll be foreign hands engaged in a post-ISAF Afghanistan.

                              Soldier skills are increasing. For whom those men end up "soldiering" is the question. I suspect tribal or warlord factions. Afghanistan shall prove a well-armed, well-trained, war-like society.

                              Plenty of bullets to shoot, people to kill and scores to settle.
                              "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                              "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Sir,I have no doubt we won't drop support completely right when the big army flies home.But politics change and frankly I don't trust your decision makers to stick to the course.I may be wrong and I'd like to be wrong about that.The precedent however is right in front of our eyes.The bar wrt A-stan's future was set lower and lower since 2007.

                                Agreed about the warlords part.There is however a bright future for the Taliban in the scheme.The Southern warlords and troops(mostly deployed in the N,these days) will be between the hammer and the anvil.On one hand,the northerners will inherit the best men(for example,the 205th Corp contains few Pashtuns,IIRC, and is arguably the best in ANA).On the other they'll have our old friends across the border,augmented by our frenemmies even more than today.I bet my first wage they'll strike a deal.
                                To what degree this becomes a fight between Pakistan and everyone else,no idea.But there will be a lot of ''sport''.
                                Those who know don't speak
                                He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

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