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Israel has 'eight days' to hit Iran nuclear site: US envoy

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  • #46
    Originally posted by citanon View Post
    People might have said that about Hezbollah before 2008.
    Hezbollah proved that the IDF was not a WWIII army, nothing more. A Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group would have made short work of those fortifications.

    Comment


    • #47
      Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Hezbollah proved that the IDF was not a WWIII army, nothing more. A Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group would have made short work of those fortifications.
      Col I agree, but my point is that Israel (and perhaps the wider world as well?) was surprised by the capabilities of an enemy right on its doorstep, and could not decisively defeat said enemy. This shows that:
      1. Surprises can happen.
      2. Victory is not an Israeli birthright.


      Israel's geography gives it razor thin margins of error. What if another surprise were to occur in the future, against an enemy attacking in unexpectedly effective ways? What if said situation were to occur during the tenure of an American administration that was not fully committed to Israel's defense? What then would be the guarantor of Israel's survival?

      Comment


      • #48
        it's a world of difference between launching a poorly-planned, poorly-executed assault vice defending against an attack.

        the role of israeli nukes has always been primarily deterrence and secondarily the samson option; ie nukes aren't the guarantor of Israel's survival, just the guarantor that everyone else in the region goes does with Israel.
        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

        Comment


        • #49
          Well, here we are, just exactly where I predicted we would be four years ago, when it was said that Iran was five years from being nuclear-armed. And all the Smart Guys said we should negotiate, as if that was going to produce anything but an Iranian advantage, which it surely did, as expected by all of us that had the brains to think clearly for one dam' second.

          Everybody happy with this state of affairs, then? Would everybody like to take just a little bit of extra time to make sure the upgrade of Iran's startegic air defenses are completed?

          We have wasted time, and now we'll waste money and soon we'll waste blood. We blew an absolutely heaven-sent opportunity to topple this regime, and sold our honor along with the courageous Iranians that faced death at the hands of their murderous rulers. It is so tragic, and it was all so easily forseen and preventable. The might-have-beens that everybody loves to talk about before the World Wars were in razor-sharp relief as a backdrop to what happened while we stood around and watched the whole mess happen...AGAIN.

          Liberals, YOU did this. This is a direct result of your cowardice and fecklessness. All the hand-wringing, bed-wetting, nuanced thinkers that took all those complicated factors into account have made it impossible to do anything but watch what could have been stopped ten years ago occur.

          Europe at large and Democrats here played their roles in this, and if anybody wonders why I consider these idiots the enemy within, well, stay tuned, because you're going to see what happens when anybody listens to their bad, foolish counsel.

          We're screwed now.

          Comment


          • #50
            Oh please give me a break! Bluesman, the Democrats and Europe are not at fault.

            The circumstances back at that time just simply did not work in US's favor and Iran knew that and took advantage of it. Actually Bush is at fault because in 2003, the moderates who were in power in Iran offered to dismantle its nuclear program to US in exchange for certain things and Bush didn't even want to consider it. So how about them apples?

            [wailing] It's BUSH's fault!! It's the Republicans' Fault!! It is all the Republicans' fault!!! [/wailing]
            Give me a break.

            Comment


            • #51
              It dam' sure IS their fault. No breaks for YOU.

              Comment


              • #52
                Blues:

                You are correct that many opportunities to act militarily against Iran have come and gone in the past 5 years. This does not mean, however, that not acting was a failure, nor that we will never act. We have to consider not only the threat posed by Iran but the reaction of the public and other countries to any military move on our part. The time to act is when the preponderance of evidence leaves no doubt in the public mind of Iran's duplicity and it is clear that we and and our allies did everything we could to resolve the issue peacefully. That time is getting close. Then we can judge whether our leaders had the balls to act and the wisdom to act at the best moment.
                Last edited by JAD_333; 19 Aug 10,, 18:22.
                To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

                Comment


                • #53
                  Originally posted by Bluesman View Post
                  Well, here we are, just exactly where I predicted we would be four years ago, when it was said that Iran was five years from being nuclear-armed. And all the Smart Guys said we should negotiate, as if that was going to produce anything but an Iranian advantage, which it surely did, as expected by all of us that had the brains to think clearly for one dam' second.

                  Everybody happy with this state of affairs, then? Would everybody like to take just a little bit of extra time to make sure the upgrade of Iran's startegic air defenses are completed?

                  We have wasted time, and now we'll waste money and soon we'll waste blood. We blew an absolutely heaven-sent opportunity to topple this regime, and sold our honor along with the courageous Iranians that faced death at the hands of their murderous rulers. It is so tragic, and it was all so easily forseen and preventable. The might-have-beens that everybody loves to talk about before the World Wars were in razor-sharp relief as a backdrop to what happened while we stood around and watched the whole mess happen...AGAIN.

                  Liberals, YOU did this. This is a direct result of your cowardice and fecklessness. All the hand-wringing, bed-wetting, nuanced thinkers that took all those complicated factors into account have made it impossible to do anything but watch what could have been stopped ten years ago occur.

                  Europe at large and Democrats here played their roles in this, and if anybody wonders why I consider these idiots the enemy within, well, stay tuned, because you're going to see what happens when anybody listens to their bad, foolish counsel.

                  We're screwed now.
                  And do what exactly? Magically march into Tehran? The Republicans controlled Congress and the Presidency in 2005, FYI.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    IMO--Weapons grade fissile materials could be purchased if a bomb is all that is desired and cost is no object, a light water power reactor is no more of a weapons risk than the blackmarket purchase of weapons grade materials. The steps to process spent fuel into weapons grade material are just as big as the steps to build a power reactor, and with that material, a weaponized bomb is another big step. If the Iranians are detemined enough - I beleive they could eventually manage to build or acquire a nuclear weapon, LW reactor or not. If their power reactor is bombed with no state of war in effect - they will have a real grudge against Israel.
                    sigpic"If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees.
                    If your plan is for one hundred years, educate children."

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by USSWisconsin View Post
                      IMO--Weapons grade fissile materials could be purchased if a bomb is all that is desired and cost is no object, a light water power reactor is no more of a weapons risk than the blackmarket purchase of weapons grade materials. The steps to process spent fuel into weapons grade material are just as big as the steps to build a power reactor, and with that material, a weaponized bomb is another big step. If the Iranians are detemined enough - I beleive they could eventually manage to build or acquire a nuclear weapon, LW reactor or not. If their power reactor is bombed with no state of war in effect - they will have a real grudge against Israel.
                      Well, I suppose they already have several grudges against Israel, but the LW reactor isn't going to contribute anything to the Iranian nuclear weapons program, primarily due to the constant onsite presence of Russian personnel, so bombing it isn't going to do anything. Places like Arak should receive targeting priority.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by astralis View Post
                        it's a world of difference between launching a poorly-planned, poorly-executed assault vice defending against an attack.
                        Yes it would be different, but then again, surprises always are different.

                        the role of israeli nukes has always been primarily deterrence and secondarily the samson option; ie nukes aren't the guarantor of Israel's survival, just the guarantor that everyone else in the region goes does with Israel.
                        And under the circumstances, that's the closest thing to a "guarantor" that Israel has.

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
                          And do what exactly? Magically march into Tehran? The Republicans controlled Congress and the Presidency in 2005, FYI.
                          Oh, well, my bad. I wasn't aware that the choice was magic marching into Tehran OR the equally impossible acceptance of Iran as a nuclear-armed hegemon.

                          I guess all the idiots that froze the entire world into inaction weren't so dumb after all. I just didn't know that there weren't any other options but the plainly unworkable two that you have identified.

                          I guess I'm not qualified to pass judgement, then. YOU, though, seem to really have a lot on the ball.

                          That last sentence? If that fact were the only relevant consideration of what could have realistically been done, then I might think you were trying to make a point, like, oh, say, the President and Congressional Republicans shared some of the blame for the position we find ourselves in.

                          But because that's not even CLOSE to the case, I have no idea what the hell you were trying to say there.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Bluesman View Post
                            Oh, well, my bad. I wasn't aware that the choice was magic marching into Tehran OR the equally impossible acceptance of Iran as a nuclear-armed hegemon.

                            I guess all the idiots that froze the entire world into inaction weren't so dumb after all. I just didn't know that there weren't any other options but the plainly unworkable two that you have identified.

                            I guess I'm not qualified to pass judgement, then. YOU, though, seem to really have a lot on the ball.

                            That last sentence? If that fact were the only relevant consideration of what could have realistically been done, then I might think you were trying to make a point, like, oh, say, the President and Congressional Republicans shared some of the blame for the position we find ourselves in.

                            But because that's not even CLOSE to the case, I have no idea what the hell you were trying to say there.
                            And you think that today the Democrats have this magical ability to walk through Tehran when the Republicans in 2005 don't and this somehow is the Democrats' fault. You know what? You just sound like those Islamic crazies or conspiracy theorists who don't hesitate to blame the Jews or US behind every calamity or disaster or event every time you start blaming the Democrats for every US failure.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              And it is absolutely unworkable when you're dealing with a millenarian, suicide-nation like Iran.

                              BOTTOM LINE: Once Iran has deliverable nuclear weapons, Israel has NO 'guarantor', AT ALL.

                              Anybody that doesn't see this, that does not recognize the nature of the Iranian regime, really has NO IDEA just exactly what it is we've bumbled into, here. If Iran gets those weapons, there WILL BE a nuclear exchange. Take it to the bank.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by Bluesman View Post
                                Oh, well, my bad. I wasn't aware that the choice was magic marching into Tehran OR the equally impossible acceptance of Iran as a nuclear-armed hegemon.

                                I guess all the idiots that froze the entire world into inaction weren't so dumb after all. I just didn't know that there weren't any other options but the plainly unworkable two that you have identified.

                                I guess I'm not qualified to pass judgement, then. YOU, though, seem to really have a lot on the ball.

                                That last sentence? If that fact were the only relevant consideration of what could have realistically been done, then I might think you were trying to make a point, like, oh, say, the President and Congressional Republicans shared some of the blame for the position we find ourselves in.

                                But because that's not even CLOSE to the case, I have no idea what the hell you were trying to say there.
                                Lets see, to use force to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program, you'd have to make sure that its gone, rather than just launch a few air strikes and hope it gets the job done so they don't start it up again, which at the least would require a very sustained bombing campaign.

                                During which the Iranians would use their Shia militia proxies in Iraq to launch attacks on American and allied armed forces. To deal with a Shia Insurgency, you'd have to march into Iran itself unless you think duking it out with Shia insurgents and the Pasdaran like its 1969 is acceptable.

                                So what's the other options for dealing with Iran besides military action?

                                And yes, the Republicans are at fault here too, certainly to the point that we liberals can hardly presume to take credit for the whole mess.

                                Comment

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