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  • #91
    Originally posted by Fivestars View Post
    Is this post about China's economy or China's population issue?

    An aging population is just one of the less important and possible problem (it's not yet happening). There are just so many other more urgent problems to take care of.

    For example, the demand for increasing wages and other welfare from labours in the coastal area? So this led to another question: how to transform China' labour intensive economy to a technology and innovation intensive one? New energy and new industries? Don't forget the social and political problems which may as well damage the economic growth, if not well taken care of.
    China is starting to face significant problems from the urbanisation of some of its best agricultural lands and the degradation of significant portions of the rest due to desertification, poor water management practices and pollution. Rampart corruption also needs to be tackled and it is starting to face increasing social disruption due to labour market disputes. Its supply of labour is not endless and from the reports I've read it is already facing constraints in the developed (Coastal provinces) - even allowing for the migration of workers from its Western Regions. The result is an increasing number of strikes by workers demanding higher wages from employers who are used to dictating, not negotiating terms and conditions.

    In large part these issues reflect the fact that it is becoming a "victim" of its own success.
    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by Monash View Post
      China is starting to face significant problems from the urbanisation of some of its best agricultural lands and the degradation of significant portions of the rest due to desertification, poor water management practices and pollution. Rampart corruption also needs to be tackled and it is starting to face increasing social disruption due to labour market disputes. Its supply of labour is not endless and from the reports I've read it is already facing constraints in the developed (Coastal provinces) - even allowing for the migration of workers from its Western Regions. The result is an increasing number of strikes by workers demanding higher wages from employers who are used to dictating, not negotiating terms and conditions.

      In large part these issues reflect the fact that it is becoming a "victim" of its own success.
      I have to agree with you to some extent, but not fully. Yes, China is urbanising fast and indeed some of the land that's previously used as farm land are not used as land for development, be it building houses or factories. However from what I knew, the Chinese government set law to preserve a certain amount of land which is carefully calculated that this amount of land is well enough for the country to be sefl-sufficient in food. As for water management and pollution, the government has been working on that, and from what I read, it's been even harsher since the Copenhagen Summit. For the issue of lack of labour and overall increase of cost of doing business in the coastal provinces, it's even simpler now. Factories starting to move inwards, deep into the vast interior of China's heartland where there are still plenty of young and eligible workers. For instance, my home province, Henan, which is right in the central part of China, having a population of 100 milllion, with much of its population being farmers, now welcomes factories and enterprises to settle. Nowadays the transport system in China has made all these possible: the second longest highway system in the world (and it's expanding at the rate of a few thoundsands of kilometres per year); hundreds of new infrastructure projects are being built as a stimulus during the economic crisis broke out in 2008, including many new airports for some small cities in the inner provinces (for example, my home province alone, already have a few of them under construction.); the new and fast developing high-speed railway system is also a bonus, making all these better. With the help of good transportation, it's easier for factories to move inwards since goods and labour can be moved easily in the country.

      Comment


      • #93
        [QUOTE=Fivestars;756376]I have to agree with you to some extent, but not fully. Yes, China is urbanising fast and indeed some of the land that's previously used as farm land are not used as land for development, be it building houses or factories. However from what I knew, the Chinese government set law to preserve a certain amount of land which is carefully calculated that this amount of land is well enough for the country to be sefl-sufficient in food./QUOTE]

        Yes, but this doesn't address the corruption issue - the Central Government in Beijing can "set" all the laws it wants governing the preservation of farm land and labour laws etc. Getting the provincial and city bureaucrats to OBEY those laws is another matter, especially when there are large profits to be made via bribes etc. How many Chinese farmers or landholders have been arrested/jailed for complaining about the confiscation of their land by provincial authorities for "State" purposes?
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

        Comment


        • #94
          For the corruption part, I have to say something. It is pretty much true that China has this huge problem of corruption, but when it comes to critical issues such as this one (preservation of farm land), the central government will not let go and spare the local officials. The reason is pretty clear: the CCP led a revolution to gain its power by mobilising the farmers who wanted their own land to plough their own crops to be self-sufficient and no longer be suppressed by landlords. The CCP knows very well what will happen if the farmers of China are unhappy with the central government. This also explains why the welfare of farmers have always been a major and top priority of the party. Yes, recently there are cases where local governments "confiscated" the farmers' land, but this is controversial. Usually it can be split into two categories: the farmers' faults and the governments' fault depending on if the amount of compensation fee is appropriate. Sometimes it can be that the government paid the appropriate amount but the farmers are not happy. Even though this may happen, under most cases the government will have a good agreement with the farmers, and in some places (especially the coastal provinces where the governments are rich enough), the farmers can become millionaires overnight! Another question will be: If the central government really cannot control the local governments and preserve the land, why is that China has been largely self-sufficient on food despite of the fact that more and more farmers going into the cities to seek a job and the population increased over a few hundred million in the last 2 or 3 decades? Corruption is hard to deal with, but if anything threatens the CCP rule, the party won't let it go easily.

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          • #95
            There are other evidence to suggest how Beijing's policies trying to favour the farmers and please them. Compulsory free nine year education starts in rural areas and benefit the farmers first before it was intruduced to cities; the farmers no longer need to be taxed for what they grow on their land and instead, the farmers are now encouraged to grow crops and there are many policies and subsidies for them; farmers' children can apply for various helps and government loans or even subsidies for education; and that the rural cooperative health care system also helps to address the problem of health care pressure for farmers. The No.1 central document which is the first central government's official document of the year, has been focusing on issues in rural areas and farmers for seven years, including this year. The government is trying to build a modern and hi-tech agricultural system much like that of the Stats, and trying to ensure the welfare and happiness on a scale never seen before.

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by Fivestars View Post
              Another question will be: If the central government really cannot control the local governments and preserve the land, why is that China has been largely self-sufficient on food despite of the fact that more and more farmers going into the cities to seek a job and the population increased over a few hundred million in the last 2 or 3 decades? Corruption is hard to deal with, but if anything threatens the CCP rule, the party won't let it go easily.
              Two points - One, my comment regarding and land use in Chiba relates to issues that are becoming a developing problem as we correspond not a historical issue. Just because China wasn't affected previously by the issues referred to above doesn't mean it won't be in the future. Pollution wasn't a major issue 30n years ago, now it is. Land use and reform wasn't an issue 30 years ago, now it is. Corruption wasn't a major issue 30 years ago now it is. The issue isn't the lack of concern these things may have been in the past but rather the extent to which they are becoming a problem now and will be in the near future.
              Secondly you tend to refer to these issues as if they were EXTERNAL to the party when the Party (or rather a significant part of its membership) are the ones taking the bribes. To the extent that party members (even at the most senior levels) participate in corruption then they are the problem!
              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

              Comment


              • #97
                Originally posted by Monash View Post
                Two points - One, my comment regarding and land use in Chiba relates to issues that are becoming a developing problem as we correspond not a historical issue. Just because China wasn't affected previously by the issues referred to above doesn't mean it won't be in the future. Pollution wasn't a major issue 30n years ago, now it is. Land use and reform wasn't an issue 30 years ago, now it is. Corruption wasn't a major issue 30 years ago now it is. The issue isn't the lack of concern these things may have been in the past but rather the extent to which they are becoming a problem now and will be in the near future.
                Secondly you tend to refer to these issues as if they were EXTERNAL to the party when the Party (or rather a significant part of its membership) are the ones taking the bribes. To the extent that party members (even at the most senior levels) participate in corruption then they are the problem!
                The CCP is not really a whole as you may think....

                There are different forces in the party....

                Comment


                • #98
                  gunnut,

                  here is an interesting article from today's FT

                  unlike Japanese companies which tend to purchase small amounts and are fussy about quality and price.
                  Japan faces food pressure from China

                  By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo

                  Published: October 4 2010 17:26 | Last updated: October 4 2010 17:26

                  In Baradero, an area 140km north of Buenos Aires, a Japanese company called Gialinks is growing organic soyabeans and corn destined to make the long journey back to Japan.

                  Across the globe in Africa, a Japanese aid agency is working with partners from Brazil and Mozambique on a project to turn part of the vast Guinea savannah into fertile farmland capable of growing crops such as soyabeans, corn and cotton.


                  While continents apart, these Japanese ventures in foreign lands have one thing in common: they highlight Japan’s increasingly anxious search for new food sources amid mounting competition from developing countries, and particularly China.

                  Since China started importing soyabeans in 2000 – after joining the World Trade Organisation – annual Chinese imports have surged from about 13m tonnes to an estimated 50m tonnes this year, according to the US agriculture department.

                  Japan, which used to be the largest soyabean importer, now has to compete with a country that purchases more than 10 times the 3.6m tonnes or so it buys each year.

                  Consequently Japan has lost much of its former bargaining power and finds itself at a competitive disadvantage in the face of China’s huge buying clout.

                  Japanese buyers face higher prices – known as the “Japan premium” in the industry – according to executives at the large trading companies that dominate the domestic food trade in Japan.

                  One industry executive says suppliers prefer customers who “buy a lot of product steadily at a good price”, unlike Japanese companies which tend to purchase small amounts and are fussy about quality and price.

                  Trading companies say Japan’s vulnerability is being highlighted this year as China’s voracious appetite for soyabeans puts a squeeze on supplies.

                  “Since the end of August, soyabean and corn for shipments in October and November have run out because China has been buying. This is unusual,” says Koji Fukuda, head of the grain section at Marubeni, the trading house. “[Therefore] those who came into the market late will probably have had to buy at high prices.”

                  Japan is even feeling the impact of Russia’s wheat export ban, even though it does not import wheat from Russia. The decline in availability of Russian wheat has increased demand for corn and soyabeans for animal feed, pushing up prices of those grains, according to Eiryu Sanatani, director of food security at the Japanese agriculture ministry.

                  Earlier this year an even more disturbing development jolted Japan’s agricultural sector – market data showed that China was importing a larger amount of corn than usual.

                  China imported about 1.3m tonnes in the year to the end of September, a 27-fold increase from the prior year, according to the US agriculture department.

                  While it is unclear if China will continue to import corn at this pace, Keiji Ohga, professor of food economics at Nihon University, says the general view is that “what they did with soyabeans ... there is a large possibility they will do with corn”.

                  One trading company worker says that, if China became a major importer of corn, it would have a “major impact” on the availability for Japan.

                  “If China becomes really serious and starts buying US land or export terminals, we don’t know what will happen because export terminals are like the faucets [that control the flow of grains],” says the executive.

                  Despite the high price pressure for Japanese trading companies, nobody is suggesting that surging Chinese demand will seriously threaten Japan’s ability to buy the grains it needs, as long as it has the financial means to do so.

                  Mr Ohga, for one, believes that demand from the biofuel industry is a greater threat to supplies than Chinese purchases of grains.

                  But there is broad agreement that competition will intensify, and that Tokyo needs to take measures to ensure it has a range of options to secure grains.

                  Marubeni, for example, recently signed a deal that gives it access to wheat from France – something it had not contemplated before. “France was never even an option [as a wheat supplier] but it has become an option because of the changed situation in the world,” says Mr Fukuda.

                  Yutaka Hongo, a senior adviser at the Japan International Co-operation Agency which provides aid for the Mozambique project, says a concentration of suppliers is the “scariest” threat to food security. He says that, while the Mozambique project may take 20 years, if the country develops into a food exporter “it can help Japan’s food security”.

                  Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.

                  FT.com / China - Japan faces food pressure from China
                  “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    What have we learned from this article?

                    1. Picky means pricey
                    2. Burning food as fuel is kinda stupid
                    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

                    Comment


                    • comparative advantage -- While China's population remains somewhat constant, it imports gain and corn like no tomorrow. Since year 2000 "the great Chinese corn bubble burst", China move into labor intensive cash corp and let corn growing to the "mechanized" farmers else where. China has been exporting cash corp to the Picky Japanese for cash.


                      And now Japan imports more food from China then US

                      http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/11/bu.../11safety.html

                      Japan, which buys far more of its food from China than the United States does, has focused its efforts so far on food safety. But some Japanese and American officials and safety experts say that similar methods may also work for many Chinese exports to the United States, not only seafood and processed vegetables but also products like medicine, toys and paint.
                      .
                      .
                      .
                      .
                      “The lesson from our success with improving the safety of spinach is that direct control of producers is the best method for quality control,” he said.

                      Under the system, a number of Chinese companies receive licenses from the government there allowing them to export to Japan on the condition that they maintain Japanese standards. Currently, 45 Chinese companies are licensed to produce spinach for sale in Japan. The Chinese producers must grow all their spinach on their own plots and not buy any from other producers. This greatly reduces the chance of dangerous pesticides getting into shipments, Japanese officials say.


                      “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

                      Comment


                      • First its total GDP is surpassed by the mainland then its PPP is surpassed by Taiwan...
                        Taiwan and Japan: X not V | The Economist

                        Taiwan’s standard of living has just surpassed Japan’s
                        Nov 11th 2010 | from PRINT EDITION

                        IN THE 1930s the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu proposed a theory of how the economies of Asia might take wing. It became known as the “flying geese” model of development. As Akamatsu pointed out, “Wild geese fly in orderly ranks forming an inverse V, just as aeroplanes fly in formation.” Japan, the first Asian country to industrialise, would lead the way. Its neighbours would follow, breaking into new industries as the goose in front graduated out of them.

                        Yet this year Japan was overtaken by a goose in its slipstream—not China, which remains far poorer than Japan, even if its economy is now bigger, but rather the island economy of Taiwan. In 2010, according to the IMF, Japan’s income per head will be $33,800; Taiwan’s will be over $34,700.

                        These incomes are converted not at market exchange rates, but at purchasing-power parities (PPPs), taking account of the higher cost of living in Japan. By this measure, Taiwan is not the first of the trailing geese to overtake the leader. Singapore and Hong Kong caught Japan in the early 1990s. South Korea is also closing the gap. Akamatsu’s inverse V is beginning to turn into an X.



                        Calculated at market rates, Japan’s per head income ($42,300) remains far higher than Taiwan’s ($18,300). Tokyo’s chic districts are richer than their Taipei counterparts. And if Akamatsu’s theory applies to a country’s industrial mix, rather than its standard of living, Japan is well out in front. It is further along in the transition to a service economy, with industry accounting for less than a quarter of its GDP, compared with almost a third for Taiwan.

                        Yet despite 15 years of deflation, punishingly high prices still take a toll in Japan on people’s standard of living. PPPs are based on a global survey of prices led by the World Bank in 2005. It found that Taiwan’s housing was a third cheaper than Japan’s, even though Taiwan has almost double the population density. Taiwan’s food also costs only half as much as Japan’s. The survey’s price-checkers did their best to compare like with like, matching the price of staples and delicacies in each country. Inevitably the comparisons can be contested. Taiwanese food may seem cheap next to Japan’s sashimi and fugu. But then again, how much would you pay for stinky tofu?

                        Asia
                        “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

                        Comment


                        • Japan does it again!

                          Q3 GDP data confirm it: the fourth recession since 2008, and perhaps the 7th since the early 1990s.
                          In nominal yen terms, the economy is still 8.4% smaller than in 1997.

                          In the first nine months, 0.5% real GDP growth, -0.6% PCE, +5.3% CAP.
                          Trust me?
                          I'm an economist!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by DOR View Post
                            Q3 GDP data confirm it: the fourth recession since 2008, and perhaps the 7th since the early 1990s.
                            In nominal yen terms, the economy is still 8.4% smaller than in 1997.

                            In the first nine months, 0.5% real GDP growth, -0.6% PCE, +5.3% CAP.
                            In real terms what have been the consequences for the japanese people over that period?

                            and does Japan represent timid evidence of managing to get along in an economic world not driven by growth?

                            Comment


                            • I think Japan is experiencing what happens to an industrialized nation when the population starts to crash.

                              Japanese birth and death rates since 1950.


                              Population of Japan by age and sex (demographic pyramid) as of 2010-10-01
                              Attached Files

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
                                I think Japan is experiencing what happens to an industrialized nation when the population starts to crash.

                                Japanese birth and death rates since 1950.
                                I think there's a cultural component as well. Japanese culture is rather reserved. Risk taking is not encouraged. Innovation is harder to come by if the cultural value stresses "not rocking the boat."

                                Japan experienced exponential growth after WW2 because it was able to enjoy the development already done by the US. New factories and techniques were introduced. Japan did not have to "reinvent the wheel" and just hop onboard on the road to industrialization. We can see that in China over the last 25 years.

                                Japan has "caught up" with the western nations in terms of industrialization by the late 1980s. Now it needs to innovate to continue to grow. Can't copy stuff any more because there isn't something that hasn't been copied already. At the same time Japan is experiencing an aging population. Fewer babies are born to replace older folks leaving the work force. Labor becomes more expensive. And worst of all, an older population is risk-averse.

                                Expensive labor + declining population + risk-averse culture = economic stagnation

                                At the mean time government follows a heavy dose of Keynesian economics. It didn't work. Let's double down. Didn't work again. Try a 3rd time. 4th...5th... The nation can't recover from continued spending while not expand the GDP. All these things become a positive feedback loop and will get worse.

                                ======================

                                Of course this is just my personal observation. I could be totally off. It could be aliens...
                                "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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