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Thread: China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy, US next by 2025.

  1. #46
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja View Post
    Can you tell me what China's economy will be in the 30-60yrs you are talking about? I think you are the one not getting it.
    Growth rate will be way down. Social spending will be way up. Environmental regulations and cost will be way up. Everything will work like a giant anchor on the Chinese economy like how things are with Western Europe right now and the US in a few years. European economy is pretty much stagnant. US economy is growing at a mighty 3% annual rate a few years ago, and that could not be sustained.

    China's aging demographic means people will retire en masse, putting a strain on the safety net. Old people will be warehoused, lest they suffer a worse fate. The relatively smaller number of working people will need to pay for these services. This will be further complicated by the low birth rate and an unhealthy ratio of men to women. About 15% of men will not be able to find a mate. That has never happened in the history of man kind to a large population. Usually it's the men who die in droves due to warfare. Leaving many more women alive. Women are harder to replace in a population.

    China better start having more girls and encourage more births. A birth rate of 1.5 and a boy/girl ratio of 1.15 is bad.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ArmchairGeneral View Post
    Might want to get your sarco-meter tuned up.
    Honestly, can you read my post # 11 and conclude that i meant what Xinhui misunderstood me to mean? I wasn't even being sarcastic, i thought i was writing in plain language? I rest my case on this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    Not quite. The CCP still controls the CMC but the PLA reports to the CMC, not to the CCP. While on the surface, this may seems a trivial thing, it practice, it separates the military from the party.

    In short, without the PLA's approval, the CMC could not issue the orders the CCP wants.
    Sir, but who are running the CMC? Hu Jintao is the C/man. His two vices Gen Guo Bociong and Gen Xu Caihou are CCP cadres through and through. Gen Guo is a member of the Politiburo of the CCP and Gen Xu is a member of the CPC central committee. The appointment of the vices is made by the CCP congress, i really do think the CCP has a pretty firm grip on the PLA.

    Also sir, consider that there are actually two parallel CMCs that operational in China, the state organ and the party organ. It seems it is the party organ that is really calling the shots with the PLA. I solicit your opinion on this sir.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Growth rate will be way down. Social spending will be way up. Environmental regulations and cost will be way up. Everything will work like a giant anchor on the Chinese economy like how things are with Western Europe right now and the US in a few years. European economy is pretty much stagnant. US economy is growing at a mighty 3% annual rate a few years ago, and that could not be sustained.

    China's aging demographic means people will retire en masse, putting a strain on the safety net. Old people will be warehoused, lest they suffer a worse fate. The relatively smaller number of working people will need to pay for these services. This will be further complicated by the low birth rate and an unhealthy ratio of men to women. About 15% of men will not be able to find a mate. That has never happened in the history of man kind to a large population. Usually it's the men who die in droves due to warfare. Leaving many more women alive. Women are harder to replace in a population.

    China better start having more girls and encourage more births. A birth rate of 1.5 and a boy/girl ratio of 1.15 is bad.
    Gunnut,

    Two things i will mention. 1) China will not adopt burdensome Western style type of a welfare system. I have lived in a third world country for a considerable number of years. The family institution is still a very strong intergral part of the society. They look after their own without soliciting gvt help. Even if say, they look up to the gvt, China being a non-democracy single party system that it is, the gvt will simply not give in to burdsome commitments that will anchor the economy.

    2) Look at the population figures again Gunnut honestly. They are not that horrifically different to the US, yet the US is still churning GDP growths.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    Growth rate will be way down. Social spending will be way up. Environmental regulations and cost will be way up. Everything will work like a giant anchor on the Chinese economy like how things are with Western Europe right now and the US in a few years. European economy is pretty much stagnant. US economy is growing at a mighty 3% annual rate a few years ago, and that could not be sustained.

    China's aging demographic means people will retire en masse, putting a strain on the safety net. Old people will be warehoused, lest they suffer a worse fate. The relatively smaller number of working people will need to pay for these services. This will be further complicated by the low birth rate and an unhealthy ratio of men to women. About 15% of men will not be able to find a mate. That has never happened in the history of man kind to a large population. Usually it's the men who die in droves due to warfare. Leaving many more women alive. Women are harder to replace in a population.

    China better start having more girls and encourage more births. A birth rate of 1.5 and a boy/girl ratio of 1.15 is bad.
    I'm not sure if its a good idea to make demographic projections based on official PRC data:



    Re: Chinese Demographics Thread
    « Reply #127 on: June 02, 2010, 08:37:31 AM »
    Reply with quoteQuote
    updated article on the above poster note
    ------------------------------------------
    Chinese Hiding 3 Million Babies Each Year to Bypass One Child Policies -

    Chinese Hiding 3 Million Babies Each Year to Bypass One Child Policies

    The Telegraph UK and other sources are reporting that 3 million babies are hidden in China each year. This is according to research by Liang Zhongtang, a demographer and former member of the expert committee of China's National Population and Family Planning Commission.

    People have been warning about problems with China having a gender imbalance (too many boys) and having a shortage of younger people (an aging population and increasing dependency ratio). Both of those problems are not as bad as earlier feared because of the cheating against the one child system.

    Since 1978, China’s government has limited each couple to one child in a bid to stem the growth of the world's largest population. To police the law, neighbourhood committees keep a close eye out for any pregnancies, and Family Planning officials have the power to force women to have abortions and sterilisations, as well as to monitor their contraception.

    The policy does not apply to everyone. In the countryside, parents are allowed to try for a second child if their first is a girl. Couples who are both single children themselves are also allowed to have two children. A growing number of rich Chinese also pay fines in order to have a second child.

    Examining China’s census figures, Mr Liang came across discrepancies that proved the subterfuge. “In 1990, the national census recorded 23 million births. But by the 2000 census, there were 26 million ten-year-old children, an increase of three million,” he said. "Normally, you would expect there to be fewer ten-year-olds than newborns, because of infant mortality," he added.

    His findings suggest that the one-child policy may not have the grim consequences that have been widely predicted. According to China’s own figures, the traditional desire among Chinese families to have a boy, coupled with the one-child regime, should produce a surfeit of 30 million men by 2020, with many parents allegedly using ultrasound to guarantee the sex of their child.

    Mr Liang said the imbalance was “definitely not as severe as the statistics suggest”. Instead of aborting female foetuses, Mr Liang's research suggests that the families have the girls, but do not declare them. The families wait until they are six or seven and by then, the local governments tend not to care as much

    Liang Zhongtang and Two Child Policies

    Susan Greenhalgh took an indepth treatment of the formation of China’s one-child policy. This volume exemplifies some of the strongest work in the anthropology of China in the present day, pulling ethnographic research in China into the mainstream of central debates in contemporary anthropology. The work also looked at Liang Zhongtang's background.

    The spokesperson closest to revolutionary political culture, Liang Zhongtang, described by Greenhalgh as a Marxist humanist, was the one who paid the greatest attention to the social impact of the one-child policy, especially for the elderly (but less so for women), and was able to urge a more socially responsive and gradual approach

    The Times UK Online looked at a secret 25 year long two child test in Yicheng county.

    Details of the experiment were reported for the first time in the Southern Weekend newspaper in Guangzhou — and the results are sure to call into question the viability of the official family planning policy.

    According to the paper, the population of the county has grown over the 25-year period of the scheme by 20.7 per cent, which is nearly five percentage points lower than the national average, despite families being allowed two children. The experiment also appears to have redressed the imbalance between male and female births in China: the national average is 118 males to every 100 females, but in Yicheng the ratio was in line with the natural norm at 106 to 100.

    Liang Zhongtang, who designed the programme, believes that the draconian one-child policy has served its purpose. “Under natural conditions, with no family planning policy, the birthrate would drop faster than with strict restrictions,” he said. Zou Xuejin, of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, has also called for a relaxation of the official family planning policy.
    I'll go dig up the URL for the actual Telegraph article later.

    Edit: Ah, here it is: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...es-a-year.html

    If there was only a way I could get my hands on an English copy of the study.
    Last edited by Skywatcher; 04 Aug 10, at 19:45.

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    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja View Post
    Gunnut,

    Two things i will mention. 1) China will not adopt burdensome Western style type of a welfare system. I have lived in a third world country for a considerable number of years. The family institution is still a very strong intergral part of the society. They look after their own without soliciting gvt help. Even if say, they look up to the gvt, China being a non-democracy single party system that it is, the gvt will simply not give in to burdsome commitments that will anchor the economy.
    Things change when people have money.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja View Post
    2) Look at the population figures again Gunnut honestly. They are not that horrifically different to the US, yet the US is still churning GDP growths.
    How can you say that?

    Did you see the fertility rate? The US is 1/3 higher than China.

    Did you see the male/female ratio? China is at a very unhealthy +15% male.

    Did you see the age distribution? The US has started aging already. China hasn't begun.

    Do you know what "population momentum" is? It takes decades to reverse a population's demographics. It usually gets a lot worse before it gets better. Everything points to very few workers supporting a large elderly population in China. Many men will not be able to find a mate. Women aren't having many kids to replace the retired workers. There will be huge social upheaval in China's future.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja View Post
    Sir, but who are running the CMC? Hu Jintao is the C/man. His two vices Gen Guo Bociong and Gen Xu Caihou are CCP cadres through and through. Gen Guo is a member of the Politiburo of the CCP and Gen Xu is a member of the CPC central committee. The appointment of the vices is made by the CCP congress, i really do think the CCP has a pretty firm grip on the PLA.

    Also sir, consider that there are actually two parallel CMCs that operational in China, the state organ and the party organ. It seems it is the party organ that is really calling the shots with the PLA. I solicit your opinion on this sir.
    One thing you forget too add -- the role of the National mobilization committee. it's job is to connect both CMC together in time of crisis. According to the 1999 Defense mobilization Law, the PLA no longer has rights to mobilize any civilian assets such as rail, airport, free way, gas, food etc without approval by the State Council. The State Council headed by PM Wen, not HJT. They break it, they buy it.

    Some might even argue that in some instances, PM Wen has greater influence than HJT, especially in the area of the economic (and that is the theme of this thread)
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post

    Agreed Xinhui, the only troubling part is jobs. Many countries right now appear to want to keep their Domestic markets moving so there could be a fatal fallout of Imported materials suppling Domestic jobs. It will be interesting to watch and see who corners the "green" market in the next couple of years.
    I am against protectionism in principle, but if the government subsidy is shortest (I am not saying more effective) way to build up smart power grids, wind farms, solar panels, and other required infrastructures. Subsidy and protectionism are still the lesser evil.
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    I'm not sure if its a good idea to make demographic projections based on official PRC data:

    I'll go dig up the URL for the actual Telegraph article later.

    Edit: Ah, here it is: Chinese hiding three million babies a year - Telegraph

    If there was only a way I could get my hands on an English copy of the study.
    The numbers I pulled came out of CIA world factbook.

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/ch.html
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja
    Honestly, can you read my post # 11 and conclude that i meant what Xinhui misunderstood me to mean? I wasn't even being sarcastic, i thought i was writing in plain language? I rest my case on this.
    Okay...maybe xinhui should lay off the deadpan humor for a while, yer clearly not getting it...

    But, to spell it out: What you misunderstood to be a misunderstanding was not, but rather, sarcasm.

    I swear, emoticons are destroying this country.
    I enjoy being wrong too much to change my mind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    The numbers I pulled came out of CIA world factbook.

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/ch.html
    The problem is that the CIA seems to be relying on official PRC data, far as I can see (it's not like Langley can conduct a census of the Chinese population by themselves, anyways).

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    China is conducting the 2010 census this fall, so I guess we would have more accurate demographic data soon. Canton and Sichuan census data would be interesting to watch.

    It takes decades to reverse a population's demographics. It usually gets a lot worse before it gets better.
    True, but China's situation is a little different. China only needs to reverse the one child policy to turn back the falling fertility rate.

    Everything points to very few workers supporting a large elderly population in China.
    The official Chinese retirement age is in the early 50, and there are still excessive labors in the countryside that needed to be absorbed. I really doubt the circumstance is as dramatic as some of the experts have suggested.
    Many men will not be able to find a mate. Women aren't having many kids to replace the retired workers. There will be huge social upheaval in China's future.
    This is already a problem in the rural area, and many of these people(mostly minority) are marrying females from Cambodia, Vietnam, and Laos. This trend is similar with Korea, Japan, Taiwan and HK.

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    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kyli View Post
    True, but China's situation is a little different. China only needs to reverse the one child policy to turn back the falling fertility rate.
    Population momentum...takes decades to reverse.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    We didn't industrialize our farming overnight. It took decades. About 30% of our population at the beginning of the 20th century were farmers. Now we have less than 3%.

    As far as subsidies go, China can subsidize farmers too. France does. There's something in the EU called common agricultural policy or something like that. It artificially inflates the food prices because that's how small time farmers could survive in an industrial age.
    Actually, China goes into great length in protecting its farmers from threat of oversea imports. And I guess it has to do that or else the farmers will have nobody to sell their produce and cause problems to the government. And as part of its effort to protect farmers, you don't really have the world market involved in China as much as it could potentially be, so certain food prices in China are going to be higher than they should. And I don't see how this can change, because the living standard is going up in China so the farmers will want to be paid more. Which means the food cost in China will go even higher. And the gov't don't want everyone to move to the city, so you have the excess of farmers who are not all that productive. But you have to keep buying food from them or they will cause problems. If anyone ever been to the Chinese country side, you'd know how violent these people are.

    The American food industry is extremely competitive. Although I dare say that I would rather have the naturally grown stuff vs the chemical food that I normally eat. I was in Mexico recently and found it amazing how food there was just so much healthier for me than the stuff I get in New York.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    You really don't see it?

    The US aging population is already underway and progressing slowly. China hasn't begun yet. When it does, it will affect China far more severely than it affected the US. Look at the gender ratio. Look at the fertility rate. Everything indicates a relatively fast population aging process. It could be too much for an economy to absorb in such a short time span. China will suffer from rapid aging in the next 30 years, and a large loss of population in 60 years.


    China

    Age structure:
    0-14 years: 17.9% (male 128,363,812/female 109,917,641)
    15-64 years: 73.4% (male 501,987,034/female 474,871,442)
    65 years and over: 8.6% (male 55,287,997/female 59,713,369) (2010 est.)

    Population growth rate:
    0.494% (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 153

    Sex ratio:
    at birth: 1.14 male(s)/female
    under 15 years: 1.17 male(s)/female
    15-64 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
    65 years and over: 0.93 male(s)/female
    total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2010 est.)

    Total fertility rate:
    1.54 children born/woman (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 182


    USA

    Age structure
    0-14 years: 20.1% (male 31,853,857/female 30,526,753)
    15-64 years: 66.9% (male 103,607,835/female 104,015,706)
    65 years and over: 13% (male 17,291,694/female 22,937,018) (2010 est.)

    Population growth rate:
    0.97% (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 123

    Sex ratio:
    at birth: 1.047 male(s)/female
    under 15 years: 1.04 male(s)/female
    15-64 years: 1 male(s)/female
    65 years and over: 0.75 male(s)/female
    total population: 0.97 male(s)/female (2010 est.)

    Total fertility rate:
    2.06 children born/woman (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 124
    I've said this before and will say this again. the so called aging of the population will not really affect Chinese labour market that much. Right now, people in China are retiring when they are in their early 40s, because there are so many young people entering the work force. They then get paid pension for the rest of their life. Now, if the older generation become larger, that would force people to retire later. So they would be retiring in their 50s instead of their 40s in China. You really will not see a decline in Chinese labour force. And the other thing is that there are two extremes in China. There are the workers on the coast in the really industrial zones that work themselves to death (like people in New York). And there are people who just don't do much work in the central part of China and coast through life (like people in Greece). At certain point, the less efficient segment of Chinese population will be forced to work harder due to decline in those rural labour who have fueled the growth thus far.

    Now, I think there are certain implications and changes in Chinese labour force. With the younger generation expecting more in life, you will certainly see less people willing to work for little money in really mundane jobs with long hours (like in foxconn amongst others). You will see increased regulation to enforce higher work standard as people are no longer willing to put their lives in danger. These are all segments in capitalism.

    People who call for higher RMB simply have no foresight. Labour cost in China will go up once people start to expect more and are no longer willing to work 12 hours a day for a meal. No government manipulation of currencies can distort that. So, the Chinese economy has to adapt to people less willing to do cheap labours and seeking for higher tech jobs.

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