Page 2 of 16 FirstFirst 1234567891011 ... LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 228

Thread: China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy, US next by 2025.

  1. #16
    Administrator
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Posts
    13,848
    zinja,

    Demographics can affect a countries finances (balance sheet structure) but it has less impact on the nation's output (GDP). An aging population will only mean more being spent on the aging populace but the important thing is its money being spent all the same, thus promoting GDP.
    an aging populace is also less productive than a young, healthy one. also, re-direction of money impacts GDP growth, too.

    Secondly Astralis, do not make the mistake of comparing free marketeering democracies with command economies, there is a huge difference. The notiong that some day the Chinese are going to revolt against the gvt as they become more empowered to me is too simplistic and too early to be considered in the forecastable future. From Zimbabwe in the south to Russia in the north i think we have seen that as long as a gvt has a strong grip the military and its security apparatus, they can pretty much fend off any disent.
    note i didn't say that there's going to be some democratic revolution. i simply said more receptive to the people, which is a continuation of today's trends. the CCP cannot get away with what it could do 15 years ago, let alone what it could do 25 years ago.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,158
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    As far as subsidies go, China can subsidize farmers too. France does. There's something in the EU called common agricultural policy or something like that. It artificially inflates the food prices because that's how small time farmers could survive in an industrial age.
    I can live very well without agri-industrial giants.Trust my tastes to make the difference between natural grown vegetables or fruits of the small farmers(some of them are really small) and some industrial products under another name.I'd rather pay 50% or more for something that won't poison me in the long run and actually tastes like it's supposed to taste.There are a lot more benefits from the farmer class,tradition aside.One of them is that rednecks make better soldiers than the city weaklings . And they're conservative(as a decisive argument to you)
    The solution for China is simple in theory.You need to mass land in order to allow mechanization to occur.You can also create a program like that for the modernization of Eastern European agricultures.But you don't need to mass properties.For Chinese peasants this shouldn't be a problem.I presume they're already under some sort of collective farms.
    Last edited by Mihais; 02 Aug 10, at 22:52.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  3. #18
    Defense Moderator
    Defense Professional
    Lei Feng Protege
    xinhui's Avatar
    Join Date
    17 May 06
    Posts
    7,980
    For Chinese peasants this shouldn't be a problem.I presume they're already under some sort of collective farms.
    This is happened when all the Chinese communes were broken up in the late 1970s. In southern China all the trackers were sold as junks as most of the peasants can no longer afford to rent them. Some how, without subsidiary from the government, the farms became extremely productive.

    What China is doing very well right now is labor intensive agriculture, not mechanize farming. Take apple for example.


    This article was written back in 2007 and China has a greater market share now.

    Fifteen years ago, China grew fewer apples than the United States. Today, it grows five times as many - nearly half of all apples grown in the world.

    China's advantage is its cheap labor. A picker makes about 28 cents an hour, or $2 a day, according to the U.S. Apple Association. In 2005, workers in Pennsylvania made about $9 to $10 per hour, and those in Washington State about $14 per hour, the association said.



    U.S. apple growers feel heat from China
    By Kimberly Hefling
    Published: Monday, June 25, 2007
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/25/bu...1.6312540.html

    GETTYSBURG, Pennsylvania — Farmers have been growing apples here since before the American Civil War, and as times have changed, they have changed with them, planting smaller trees to speed up harvests and growing popular new varieties to satisfy changing tastes.

    But the growers who have made this mountainous region the core of apple-growing in Pennsylvania worry about a challenge that may be too big to overcome and that could change their way of life.

    Like farmers in the bigger apple-producing states, they are increasingly anxious that China could flood the U.S. market with its fresh apples - an event many believe is inevitable, even if it could be years away.

    They saw what happened in the 1990s when Chinese apple juice concentrate entered the United States. Prices fell so low that some U.S. juice companies were forced out of the market. Growers could no longer afford to grow apples just for making juice.

    With the U.S. Farm Bill up for renewal this year for the first time since 2002, apple growers are pressing for an unprecedented amount of federal financing to develop technologies to make harvesting less costly, and aid to develop overseas markets.

    Even before new questions were raised this year about how well China enforces food safety rules, some growers were also pressing the U.S. government to require country-of-origin stickers on all apples.

    "We're facing a threat that we've never faced before in terms of their ability to come in and essentially replace every apple that we produce in this country numerically and at a much lower cost," said John Rice, a seventh-generation grower whose grandfather made money in the Depression era by gathering apples from area growers and shipping them to England.

    Today, Rice's family owns 1,000 acres, or 400 hectares, of orchards and packs and markets apples for 50 area growers primarily in Pennsylvania's historic growing area in Adams County.

    "We have to lower our costs and we have to do what other successful business have done in the face of Chinese competition and that is to innovate, to stay ahead, to either grow new varieties that they don't grow in China, or whatever it takes," Rice said.

    Fifteen years ago, China grew fewer apples than the United States. Today, it grows five times as many - nearly half of all apples grown in the world.

    China's advantage is its cheap labor. A picker makes about 28 cents an hour, or $2 a day, according to the U.S. Apple Association. In 2005, workers in Pennsylvania made about $9 to $10 per hour, and those in Washington State about $14 per hour, the association said.


    Bilateral talks on whether fresh apples from China can be brought into the United States have been going on since 1998.

    To gain access to the U.S. market, China must prove that it meets U.S. standards for pest and disease control. The U.S. Apple Association said the Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service sent a list of more than 300 insects and diseases of concern to the quarantine inspection agency of the Chinese government in 2003. Beijing responded the next year, and then Washington asked for information on 52 pests from the list.

    The value of U.S. apple output was estimated at more than $2.1 billion last year. About 60 percent is sold as fresh fruit, and about 25 percent is exported. Pennsylvania ranks fifth behind Washington, New York, California and Michigan in the number of apples grown.

    Already, U.S. apple growers compete with Chinese growers for sales in parts of Southeast Asia and India.

    After Chinese juice concentrate entered the U.S. market, the average price for juice apples fell to $55 a ton in 1998 from $153 a ton in 1995. The industry filed an antidumping case but lost on appeal with the U.S. Commerce Department. Today, more than half of imported concentrate comes from China.

    "It was an uproar within the industry," said Jim Allen, president of the New York Apple Association. "What can we do? It just takes the bottom right out of our market when the product is being delivered to New York City for less than we can process and harvest it here in the United States."
    Last edited by xinhui; 02 Aug 10, at 23:07.
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

  4. #19
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Jan 06
    Location
    DPRK, Demokratik People's Republik of Kalifornia
    Posts
    23,818
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    I can live very well without agri-industrial giants.Trust my tastes to make the difference between natural grown vegetables or fruits of the small farmers(some of them are really small) and some industrial products under another name.I'd rather pay 50% or more for something that won't poison me in the long run and actually tastes like it's supposed to taste.There are a lot more benefits from the farmer class,tradition aside.One of them is that rednecks make better soldiers than the city weaklings . And they're conservative(as a decisive argument to you)
    The solution for China is simple in theory.You need to mass land in order to allow mechanization to occur.You can also create a program like that for the modernization of Eastern European agricultures.But you don't need to mass properties.For Chinese peasants this shouldn't be a problem.I presume they're already under some sort of collective farms.
    You may have the ability to pay extra for the food you want, but not everyone does. For some, it's between living with some spare change in the pocket, or on the edge of starvation. Why not have both? You can buy your expensive food while others can buy food from agri-industrial giants. Let people vote with their pocket books instead of a blanket law that limits people's freedom.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Jun 07
    Posts
    1,482
    Quote Originally Posted by xinhui View Post
    Even if Comrade Commissar Obama is the newly appointed General Secretary of the Democratic Party, it is still not nice to call US a command economy
    Eish! You caught the wrong end of the stick .

  6. #21
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,158
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnut View Post
    You may have the ability to pay extra for the food you want, but not everyone does. For some, it's between living with some spare change in the pocket, or on the edge of starvation. Why not have both? You can buy your expensive food while others can buy food from agri-industrial giants. Let people vote with their pocket books instead of a blanket law that limits people's freedom.
    Out of curiosity(or maybe we can see some bussiness opportunities) how much do you pay for,let's say,apples,pork,tomatoes or beef.Both ecological and ''doctored''?
    I would vote for free and fair competition anyday.But at least in my neck of the woods the idiots who are supposed to set the basic rules for free and fair trade are bought by the big boys.So I cannot agree to let the fundament of a society(the ability to feed itself) go away.I cannot agree to allow dumping prices to ruin what could be competitive enterprises in the long run .Think of what the do-gooders have done to African agricultures.Donate a massive amount of food(by definition free stuff) and the locals entrepreneurs( dirty French word) will go bankrupt.The vicious circuit is in place and there's no way out.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  7. #22
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,158
    Quote Originally Posted by xinhui View Post
    This is happened when all the Chinese communes were broken up in the late 1970s. In southern China all the trackers were sold as junks as most of the peasants can no longer afford to rent them. Some how, without subsidiary from the government, the farms became extremely productive.

    What China is doing very well right now is labor intensive agriculture, not mechanize farming. Take apple for example.
    Thanks.A very informative article.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  8. #23
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Jan 06
    Location
    DPRK, Demokratik People's Republik of Kalifornia
    Posts
    23,818
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    Out of curiosity(or maybe we can see some bussiness opportunities) how much do you pay for,let's say,apples,pork,tomatoes or beef.Both ecological and ''doctored''?
    Try www.albertsons.com

    Albertson's is a local supermarket. For zip code, type in 92646. Then you can see the local ads near my town. I can't browse for you right now because I'm at work and the network is extremely slow for some reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mihais View Post
    I would vote for free and fair competition anyday.But at least in my neck of the woods the idiots who are supposed to set the basic rules for free and fair trade are bought by the big boys.So I cannot agree to let the fundament of a society(the ability to feed itself) go away.I cannot agree to allow dumping prices to ruin what could be competitive enterprises in the long run .Think of what the do-gooders have done to African agricultures.Donate a massive amount of food(by definition free stuff) and the locals entrepreneurs( dirty French word) will go bankrupt.The vicious circuit is in place and there's no way out.
    You're talking 2 different things. Donation vs. cheap goods. Cheap goods is always good as long as no subsidies are used to achieve the competitive advantage. Donation can be bad because there's disincentive to work.
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  9. #24
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Jun 07
    Posts
    1,482
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    zinja,
    an aging populace is also less productive than a young, healthy one.
    According to wiki US's under 20s make up 27.6% of the population whilst China has 21% of 14 year olds or younger. US's over 65s make up 12.6% whilst in China the same age group makes up 8% of the population.

    If you factor in the age gap between 14 year olds in China to 20 year olds (i couldn't get like for like comparison figures) you can see that the figures can are easily the same. The US has a higher proportion of the over 65s and the age in between 14/20 - 65 is arguable. So in my opinion i really don't see this ageing population arguement being anything new to China that the US won't be contending with as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    zinja,
    also, re-direction of money impacts GDP growth, too.
    Whilst it can be argued that the money could be used better, but the fact that it will be going into the economy is a stimulus on its own compared to it being stashed in reserves as is the case now. There is a reason US economy is sluggish now because consumers are stashing away their cash and not spending it.

    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    zinja,
    the CCP cannot get away with what it could do 15 years ago, let alone what it could do 25 years ago.
    Well, thats what the cocensus says but personally i doubt that myself. With every country now grovelling to China, not even willing to raise a whimper against China least they 'upset' the them, who is to stop the CCP from running tanks over its citizens? The Chinese citizenry? If that thesis is correct Burma, NK, zimbabwe would have been freed a long time ago.

  10. #25
    Defense Moderator
    Defense Professional
    Lei Feng Protege
    xinhui's Avatar
    Join Date
    17 May 06
    Posts
    7,980
    Zinja,

    Why the Chinese economy grows and the nations (Burma, NK, zimbabwe) you cited did not?

    It takes more than tanks/iron fist to grow a "command economy". Seriously, is this about the Chinese economy or your own political agenda?
    Last edited by xinhui; 03 Aug 10, at 00:32.
    “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

  11. #26
    Official Thread Jacker Senior Contributor gunnut's Avatar
    Join Date
    27 Jan 06
    Location
    DPRK, Demokratik People's Republik of Kalifornia
    Posts
    23,818
    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja View Post
    According to wiki US's under 20s make up 27.6% of the population whilst China has 21% of 14 year olds or younger. US's over 65s make up 12.6% whilst in China the same age group makes up 8% of the population.

    If you factor in the age gap between 14 year olds in China to 20 year olds (i couldn't get like for like comparison figures) you can see that the figures can are easily the same. The US has a higher proportion of the over 65s and the age in between 14/20 - 65 is arguable. So in my opinion i really don't see this ageing population arguement being anything new to China that the US won't be contending with as well.
    You really don't see it?

    The US aging population is already underway and progressing slowly. China hasn't begun yet. When it does, it will affect China far more severely than it affected the US. Look at the gender ratio. Look at the fertility rate. Everything indicates a relatively fast population aging process. It could be too much for an economy to absorb in such a short time span. China will suffer from rapid aging in the next 30 years, and a large loss of population in 60 years.


    China

    Age structure:
    0-14 years: 17.9% (male 128,363,812/female 109,917,641)
    15-64 years: 73.4% (male 501,987,034/female 474,871,442)
    65 years and over: 8.6% (male 55,287,997/female 59,713,369) (2010 est.)

    Population growth rate:
    0.494% (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 153

    Sex ratio:
    at birth: 1.14 male(s)/female
    under 15 years: 1.17 male(s)/female
    15-64 years: 1.06 male(s)/female
    65 years and over: 0.93 male(s)/female
    total population: 1.06 male(s)/female (2010 est.)

    Total fertility rate:
    1.54 children born/woman (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 182


    USA

    Age structure
    0-14 years: 20.1% (male 31,853,857/female 30,526,753)
    15-64 years: 66.9% (male 103,607,835/female 104,015,706)
    65 years and over: 13% (male 17,291,694/female 22,937,018) (2010 est.)

    Population growth rate:
    0.97% (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 123

    Sex ratio:
    at birth: 1.047 male(s)/female
    under 15 years: 1.04 male(s)/female
    15-64 years: 1 male(s)/female
    65 years and over: 0.75 male(s)/female
    total population: 0.97 male(s)/female (2010 est.)

    Total fertility rate:
    2.06 children born/woman (2010 est.)
    country comparison to the world: 124
    "Only Nixon can go to China." -- Old Vulcan proverb.

  12. #27
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Jun 07
    Posts
    1,482
    Quote Originally Posted by xinhui View Post
    Zinja,

    Why the Chinese economy grows and the nations (Burma, NK, zimbabwe) you cited did not?
    Why the western economies slaggish whilst China and Indian ones are booming? There are different factors on both sides of the divide which affect each side differently. Generally, China boom is due to its huge population base which makes it cheaper to do business there. And also Burma, NK & Zimbabwe have sanctions and China does not.

    Xinhui, i brought up the issue of Burma, NK and zimbabwe not for the economic aguement but for a different political point which Astralis brought up.

    Quote Originally Posted by xinhui View Post
    Zinja,
    It takes more than tanks/iron fist to grow a "command economy". Seriously, is this about the Chinese economy or your own political agenda?
    Again you mixing the two. I didn't say tanks/iron fist grow the economy. Tank/iron fist point was a response to Astralis' on a political point here "the CCP cannot get away with what it could do 15 years ago, let alone what it could do 25 years ago"

  13. #28
    Officer of Engineers
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja View Post
    Well, thats what the cocensus says but personally i doubt that myself. With every country now grovelling to China, not even willing to raise a whimper against China least they 'upset' the them, who is to stop the CCP from running tanks over its citizens? The Chinese citizenry? If that thesis is correct Burma, NK, zimbabwe would have been freed a long time ago.
    How about the Chinese Army? The days the CCP can order the Army to run tanks over its own citizens are long over. The Army now refuses to do that work, actively refusing to get involved in the Tibet and Xinjiang riots.

  14. #29
    Military Professional 667medic's Avatar
    Join Date
    22 Jul 05
    Posts
    972
    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    How about the Chinese Army? The days the CCP can order the Army to run tanks over its own citizens are long over. The Army now refuses to do that work, actively refusing to get involved in the Tibet and Xinjiang riots.
    Sir, who needs the army when you have the PAP....
    Seek Save Serve Medic

  15. #30
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Jun 07
    Posts
    1,482
    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    How about the Chinese Army? The days the CCP can order the Army to run tanks over its own citizens are long over. The Army now refuses to do that work, actively refusing to get involved in the Tibet and Xinjiang riots.
    That is the crux of the matter. This is why i said to Astralis as long as a regime has a firm grip on the military and the nation's security apparatus, short of outside international intervention, there is little that the citizenry can do.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. From Moscow to Beijing: A journey from past to future
    By Luke Gu in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 56
    Last Post: 19 Oct 09,, 12:05
  2. How China Loses The Coming Space War
    By HKDan in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 02 Oct 09,, 06:23
  3. The most Neglected front of WWII
    By beansprout in forum The World Wars
    Replies: 80
    Last Post: 08 Sep 09,, 18:03
  4. The Pentagon Plays Its China Card
    By Deltacamelately in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 21 Nov 08,, 04:21
  5. Top Ten Chinese Military Modernization Developments
    By oneman28 in forum East Asia and the Pacific
    Replies: 96
    Last Post: 23 Jun 08,, 06:49

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •