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Thread: China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy, US next by 2025.

  1. #226
    Patron Freyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    It must really suck to have nothing worthwhile to say in response to someone who’s thought about an issue for 30 years, done the research, and presented a coherent and fact-based description of what actually happened in the past.

    And, despite all that, to still have to – just absolutely HAVE TO – respond.

    Must really suck.
    Ok keep your hair on. I was just thinking about the Graphs and charts we were presented with back in 2008...they looked like armageddon. I was enjoying the read while having a drink. Afsakiđ!

  2. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    It must really suck to have nothing worthwhile to say in response to someone who’s thought about an issue for 30 years, done the research, and presented a coherent and fact-based description of what actually happened in the past.

    And, despite all that, to still have to – just absolutely HAVE TO – respond.

    Must really suck.
    Sometimes it's just a case of people dictating to others what they 'want' to be true, instead of what actually 'is' true.

    Cases in point is the military mindset that can be wrong for a lifetime and not just 30 years. Sometimes the military mind is at a disadvantage in wider circles of conversations and discussion. That being because that which comes down from above is NOT to be questioned. Therefore, it would be quite unusual if you were voicing any opinion of your own, as opposed to the opinion of the top brass.

    I don't have to make any case that some top Generals have been completely wrong all their lives. All that's necessary is to not name the country the General works for. Sometimes the corporal who's been in the service for a year is more correct. So stop the bullshit of trying to put a feather in your own cap all the time!

    I stand willingly waiting to be corrected. Or banned from the forum for subversive thinking, whatever comes first?

  3. #228
    Patron Freyr's Avatar
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    I read the signature and saw the humour. Humility is a good quality unfortunately not all of us know its existence...

  4. #229
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    First half 2019

    In the first half of 2019, the Chinese economy grew 6.3% in real terms over January-June 2018, and insert the usual caveats about data quality here. Retail sales turned in a nominal growth rate of 8.4%, which works out to 6.2% after subtracting 2.2% consumer inflation. The broad money supply (M-2) expanded 8.4% nominally, which is broadly in keeping with the other indicators. So, if nothing else at least the statisticians have become better at producing internally consistent data.

    On the international side, exports fell by 0.5% and imports by 4.1%, both in US dollar terms. The trade balance was $30.4 billion and foreign investment actually utilized rose 4.7% to US$70.7 billion.

    Overall, a pretty poor performance but only by China’s high standards.
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  5. #230
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    IMF World Economic Outlook, July 2019

    Weak demand, soft trade, muted inflation and much of it is due to policy mistakes such as Trumpism and Brexit. Global GDP is forecast to rise 3.2% this year and 3.5% in 2020, both down from the April 2019 forecast.

    In the Advanced Economies, the pattern is reversed: 1.9% this year, slowing to 1.7% in 2020. Emerging Asia will grow 6.2% in each year, and with the exception of the CIS (1.9% => 2.4%) and sub-Saharan Africa (3.4% => 3.6%), the rest of the developing world is stuck at 1%, more or less.


    • Global growth remains subdued. Since the April World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the United States further increased tariffs on certain Chinese imports and China retaliated by raising tariffs on a subset of US imports. Additional escalation was averted following the June G20 summit. Global technology supply chains were threatened by the prospect of US sanctions, Brexit-related uncertainty continued, and rising geopolitical tensions roiled energy prices.

    • Against this backdrop, global growth is forecast at 3.2 percent in 2019, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2020 (0.1 percentage point lower than in the April WEO projections for both years). GDP releases so far this year, together with generally softening inflation, point to weaker-than-anticipated global activity. Investment and demand for consumer durables have been subdued across advanced and emerging market economies as firms and households continue to hold back on long-range spending. Accordingly, global trade, which is intensive in machinery and consumer durables, remains sluggish. The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences.


    • Risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside. They include further trade and technology tensions that dent sentiment and slow investment; a protracted increase in risk aversion that exposes the financial vulnerabilities continuing to accumulate after years of low interest rates; and mounting disinflationary pressures that increase debt service difficulties, constrain monetary policy space to counter downturns, and make adverse shocks more persistent than normal.

    • Multilateral and national policy actions are vital to place global growth on a stronger footing. The pressing needs include reducing trade and technology tensions and expeditiously resolving uncertainty around trade agreements (including between the United Kingdom and the European Union and the free trade area encompassing Canada, Mexico, and the United States). Specifically, countries should not use tariffs to target bilateral trade balances or as a substitute for dialogue to pressure others for reforms. With subdued final demand and muted inflation, accommodative monetary policy is appropriate in advanced economies, and in emerging market and developing economies where expectations are anchored. Fiscal policy should balance multiple objectives: smoothing demand as needed, protecting the vulnerable, bolstering growth potential with spending that supports structural reforms, and ensuring sustainable public finances over the medium term. If growth weakens relative to the baseline, macroeconomic policies will need to turn more accommodative, depending on country circumstances. Priorities across all economies are to enhance inclusion, strengthen resilience, and address constraints on potential output growth.

    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...updateJuly2019
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