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Thread: China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy, US next by 2025.

  1. #181
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    Sorry Haters, Your China Hard Landing Has Been Postponed Again

    It's a miracle of science that the talking heads of the financial press who have been predicting China's demise for the past 10 years are getting invited back to predict more of the same. Whatever they forecast, we can fairly safely assess that we know the outcome...they will be wrong about it again.

    Aside from China's oversupply issues and shadow lending system and its housing bubble, China is the world's second most important economy, bar none. It is at least as important as the United States to Brazil; it is more important than the United States in all of southeast Asia. It is more important than the United States in Russia. Argentina has Chinese banks; almost as much as American ones. The housing bubble is a generational phenomenon as much as it is an economic one. Millions are leaving poorer rural areas and moving to cities. Also, due to the fact that many Chinese are more accustomed to buying houses for stores of value than they are buying IRAs and putting money into stock funds, real estate is always in demand and will be until China develops a serious, trustworthy product line of investment funds. That's a whole new world for China, and a massive opportunity for wealth management firms.

    Meanwhile, the China hard landing is not upon us.

    The Chinese yuan has yet to crack 7 to 1 as George Soros and Barclays both predicted.

    China's economy in the first half showed better than expected growth, at nearly 7% versus forecasts of 6%. Incomes are rising as is consumer spending, and corporate earnings at new industry juggernauts like Baidu surprised to the upside.

    "The Chinese economy delivered many surprises in the first half of the year, disappointing -- yet again -- the pundits who predicted a hard landing," says Andy Rothman, a Matthews Asia investment strategist and an old China hand who has lived and worked there for 20 years.

    Recommended by Forbes

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#759d073348df

  2. #182
    Regular PeeCoffee's Avatar
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    China has a population of 1.4 Billion people (almost 20% of the world).
    That figure places China front and center as an industrial juggernaut out of economic necessity to survive let alone to thrive.
    Real eyes realize real lies.

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Funtastic View Post
    Sorry Haters, Your China Hard Landing Has Been Postponed Again

    It's a miracle of science that the talking heads of the financial press who have been predicting China's demise for the past 10 years are getting invited back to predict more of the same. Whatever they forecast, we can fairly safely assess that we know the outcome...they will be wrong about it again.
    Yea, US is old hat at quashing predictions like those, though again, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Expect them to say I told you so next pullback, even if that's 10 years from now.

  4. #184
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    I've been hearing, "yes, but it can't go on forever" for at least 25 years.
    It's certainly true, but there's no indication that the progress is about to stop any time soon.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeeCoffee View Post
    China has a population of 1.4 Billion people (almost 20% of the world).
    That figure places China front and center as an industrial juggernaut out of economic necessity to survive let alone to thrive.
    Once she achieves her economic goals , we may see her population start to decline like Japans.

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    If you find one, the next steps are very straight forward.

  7. #187
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    Trade update

    The US merchandise trade deficit increased 6.5% in the first nine months of 2017, to $596.1 billion. Exports grew 6.1% to $1,142.3 billion while imports increased 6.2% to $1.738.3 billion.


    Percent share of US imports


    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1985-94 _ 1995-04 _ 2005-14 _ 2015-17*
    East Asia _ _ _ _ 38.8% _ _ 35.7% _ _ 34.6% _ _ 39.4%
    Japan _ _ _ _ _ _19.5 _ _ _ 12.3 _ _ _ _ 6.7 _ _ _ _ 5.9
    China+HK _ _ _ _5.2 _ _ _ _9.9 _ _ _ _ 18.0 _ _ _ 21.6
    Tai+Kor _ _ _ _ _ 8.5 _ _ _ _6.2 _ _ _ _ _4.4 _ _ _ 5.0
    ASEAN (6) _ _ _ _5.6 _ _ _ _7.3 _ _ _ _ _5.5 _ _ _ _6.9

    * Jan-Sept 2017
    Source: US Census Bureau

    The table shows how East Asia manufacturing destined for the US market shifted from predominately Japanese origin to predominately Chinese. Relocating facilities outside the US from one trade jurisdiction to another has only one direct impact on the US economy: the change in prices charged for those imports.

    In other words, there is no harm suffered by US producers when a Taiwanese factory moves to China. There is, however, a significant and lasting increase in US standards of living when products previously produced by workers earning Japanese wages are later produced by workers earning Chinese wages.

    Given that workers are not compelled to labor in a Korean or Hong Kong-owned factory as compared to working in a Chinese-owned one, the logical assumption is that they choose to do so because of better wages, working conditions or other reasons. Hence, the less well-off Chinese worker benefits along side the less well-off US consumer.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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