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Fooled by Randomness

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  • Fooled by Randomness

    Having taught and read on topics dealing specifically and explicitly with randomness (but not history), I am always fascinated to see examples of the seen and unseen outcomes of battle.

    While the actual book, Amazon.com: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in…, deals with the mathematics and philosophy of randomness in a market context, the greatest text on the art of war speaks clearly to the role of randomness in war:

    http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/O...3/BK1ch01.html

    20.—It therefore now only wants the element of chance to make
    of it a game, and in that element it is least of all deficient.

    We see from the foregoing how much the objective nature of war makes it a calculation of probabilities; now there is only one single element still wanting to make it a game, and that element it certainly is not without: it is chance. There is no human affair which stands so constantly and so generally in close connection with chance as war. But along with chance, the accidental, and along with it good luck, occupy a great place in war.
    While it's clearly and continuously manifests itself at the tactical level, I'd love to see examples of this at the operational and strategic level.

    For example, in reading about the Overland Campaign, the random timing of Longstreet's arrival to the Wilderness results in a rout of Union forces that restores the Confederate lines and seizes the initiative from them. If Longstreet arrives 30 minutes earlier, then his forces would have been routed alongside with Hill's.

    Following the Wilderness, Grant steals a march from Lee to Spotsylvania Court House, but Anderson, who takes over Longstreet's Corps when he is wounded, leaves early and doesn't bivouac due to the brushfires set by the fighting in the Wilderness. If he instead is able to follow the instructions given to him by Lee, then his Corps is by all means most likely to be defeated piecemeal by GK Warren's V Corps, and instead of being fired ingloriously by Sheridan 11 months later at Five Forks, he instead becomes the hero of Spotsylvania, the battle where the ANV is broken and defeated, allowing the AoP to march and occupy Richmond.

    On the flipside of the coin, Grant's smashing of the Mule Shoe, which nearly allows the AoP to flank the other two Confederate corps, is made possible by the combination of a random disobeyance (not in defiance, but rather due to a slow response) of orders to return artillery to the Mule Shoe (after Lee had it withdrawn in belief that Grant was going to withdraw to Fredericksburg based on Burnside inexplicably falling back with his Corps after seizing a portion of the Confederate right flank) and heavy ground fog that disguises the massed formation of Hancock's Corps as it approached the salient.

    Those are three examples just in the span of a week of fighting in the Overland Campaign of where randomness rears its head and changes a potential outcome. I'd love to hear your examples.
    "So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

  • #2
    The explosion of the Maine that sparked the Spanish-American war. Supposedly a electrical wiring issue. Imagine just how different history would be if that ship did not blow up.
    Those who can't change become extinct.

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    • #3
      shek,

      I'd love to see examples of this at the operational and strategic level.
      two Union soldiers discovering lee's Special Order 191 wrapped around some cigars. while mcclellan wasted most of the advantage given to him by the discovery, it drove him considerably faster than he would have without the advantage. a defeat at antietam would have almost certainly meant british/french recognition of the CSA, pretty much ending the war.
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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      • #4
        wk,

        Supposedly a electrical wiring issue. Imagine just how different history would be if that ship did not blow up.
        yeah, without the war japan most likely would have seized the Philippines sooner or later. had that happened the japanese would most likely have looked at seizing Southeast Asia instead of Manchuria.
        There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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        • #5
          Israeli intelligence discovering about the 1973 war 12 hours before the attack was meant to start, even though they were completely blind for the past six months, missing even the most obvious of signals. If they hadn't given Israel the warning, the token amount of reserves wouldn't have made it to the Sinai Desert and Golan Heights, wouldn't have been able to hold back the Syrians the way they did and Syria would have overrun all of the north of Israel.

          This has a little less to do with randomness but is interesting nonetheless: It turns out that by attacking on Israel's holiest day of the year, they did gain surprise, but since nearly everyone in Israel was in synagogue in actuality it made it mush easier to call the reserves, since they were all easy to reach. Moreover, the streets were all pretty empty, so it took the tank carriers and troop carriers hours less to reach the Golan than if they attacked on a regular day.
          Meddle not in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.

          Abusing Yellow is meant to be a labor of love, not something you sell to the highest bidder.

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          • #6
            At Tsusima burinig powder in the shell room of Fuji was extinguished by a steam pipe broken by a russian shell. Not that would change the course of history, but the defeat could be a bit less embarrasing.
            We're so bad, we're even bad at it

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            • #7
              A couple of battles in the Imjin war between the Ming dynasty China and the Japanese forces offer good example of this.

              In the battle of Ulsan (December of 1597) . the allied forces caught the Japanese forces relatively unprepared at their key fortress in Ulsan and trapped one of their most prominent general, Kato Kiyomasa, within the walls. although a few direct assault attempted failed, situation was dire as the Japanese forces weren't prepared for a long siege at this point.

              The other nearby Japanese forces rushed to their aid, but the Allied forces had already taken up some of the key entryways into the area from the south and have it well defended. while also watched their attempts to land via ships, it seem that the Japanese was doomed.

              However, right at this point heavy unseasonal rain fell down (it was deep in the winter already, this was in Korea, and we're going by the lunar calender, so it was more like January by modern calender standard). the Japanese forces realized that this was their chance . and some of their forces managed to land from ships and boats north of the allied forces. and attacked, the heavy rain covered their landing and attack nicely. and caught the allied forces by near complete surprise.

              The chief commander of the Ming forces. the administrator Yang Hao. shaken by the surprise attack and dishearted by their failed direct assaults. suddenly ordered a general withdraw in the confusion and then left first himself. the unorderly nature of this withdraw attempt quickly send the entire allied forces into a full rout.

              It was a pretty devastating turn of events. as the allies would not be able to pull off another serious offensive again until around 8+ months later.

              Of course , much of the same happened against 8 months later , by then the Ming had nearly doubled their deployment in Korea to roughly 75,000 . while the Japanese were ready to give up on the war seeing a complete lack of progress (they were stuck at the point between Ulsan / Sacheon / Suncheon , you can look up where those cities were in Korean and have a good idea of why they had begun to give up.) and pulled out a significant portion of their troops.

              The allied forces marched against 3 seperate major Japanese fortress at once, including a massive land / sea combined assault on the fortress of Suncheon.

              Though the most decisive battle would be at Sacheon, where the Ming forces utilized their artilleries effectively and broke through nearly all of the outer primeter defenses. and even shot down the gates of the final inner castle of the Japanese force. it seems like victory was imminent. with a much larger force and much more devastating firepower.

              Then suddenly, something went wrong with their artillery camp, and their entire gunpowder stash began to blow up. sending their camp into a spetacular firework. with the smoke cleared the dazed , confused, and devastating allied forces suddenly realize that a bunch of angry and desperate samurais are already right next to them.


              Of course. in most of these random luck events. it is still up to the other side to sieze the opportunity. and in both of these cases the Japanese did a exellent job of just that.

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