Caucasus & Middle East

[cyppok]

Certain things have come to my attention which are somewhat interesting.
I have my own conclusions about them but here we go...
[these stories are sorta of a progression not necessarily all recent (nor related) and if you want to read them in entirety the links are there, usually fairly short.]

Medvedev Creates New North Caucasus Federal District - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010

"Medvedev Creates New North Caucasus Federal District"
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev yesterday divided the Southern Federal District to create a new North Caucasus Federal District comprising six of the seven North Caucasus republics, plus Stavropol Krai. Adygeya, which is an enclave within Krasnodar Krai, remains part of the rump Southern Federal District, as does Kalmykia

.

President Of Karachayevo-Cherkessia Dismisses Government - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010

"President Of Karachayevo-Cherkessia Dismisses Government"
April 29, 2010
Boris Ebzeyev dismissed the Karachayevo-Cherkessia Republic government on April 28 in line with a directive issued last week by North Caucasus Federal District head Aleksandr Khloponin.

Turkey Publicly Stresses Its Obligations To Defend Naxcivan - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
"Turkey Publicly Stresses Its Obligations To Defend Naxcivan"
April 30, 2010

According to that press release, "the Naxcivan Autonomous Republic is an exclave surrounded by the several countries. The Naxcivan autonomous formation is exposed to various threats from the side of the Armenian state. For that reason, military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan and the Naxcivan AR is one of the chief components of our relations."

German RWE Signs Groundbreaking Agreement for Turkmen Gas - The Jamestown Foundation[tt_news]=36348&tx_ttnews[backPid]=27&cHash=28ac3acd4f

Constitutional Amendments Further Polarize Turkish Politics
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 8 Issue: 87
May 5, 2010 03:39 PM Age: 1 hrs
In March, the government finally announced that instead of rewriting a constitution, it would opt for a smaller package of amendments. The amendments focused on changing the composition of the constitutional court and supreme board of judges (HSYK), dissolution of political parties, the decisions of the supreme military council (YAS), and the prosecution of past coup perpetrators as well as the expansion of certain civil liberties.

Several factors coalesced to force the AKP to refocus its attention on constitutional reform. On the one hand, the ongoing Ergenekon investigation put the AKP in a better position to call for further democratizing the Turkish political system. Similarly, the recent bickering between the government and the heads of higher legal bodies also added some justification to the AKP’s argument for redefining the powers and composition of state agencies. On the other hand, the AKP’s failure in the so-called “Kurdish opening” forced it to re-conceptualize the issue of giving greater rights to Turkish citizens of different backgrounds and present it as a broad-based “democratic opening.”

http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/fi...am_laqueur.pdf
‘Russia’s Muslim Strategy’ Middle East Strategy at Harvard
(my opinion on this paper is as follows. The author completely ignores the divide and conquer strategy. The center knows how to play the clans and ethnicities against each other that is why they kept the border of ethnic republics mixed in the first place to foment ethnic tension and be the necessary impartial judge to guarantee peace and prosperity. This was done from the first cacuasian wars when kipchaks and certain clans within ethnicities were fighting on the Russian side in return for favors or position post-facto, and this still continues to this day.

Then he quotes "eccentric" sources and uses them as a backlog of possible future thought or already becoming mainstream elements (which is really sad).

The reason I bring this paper up is precisely to show the delusion, and concentration of mainstream thinkers such as Mr. Lacquer upon what happened, and where the extremes are, but not what is happening. Him and others like him are the population of think-tanks in Washington and formulate policy which gets executed. They are still in the land of wishful thinking to some degree, there are a lot of exceptions but they are not in the majority...

CAVEAT CAVEAT CAVEAT ... I am of the skeptical mind that all information is biased weather read or written by the writer and or the organization which they represent. If its from one source its usually biased in favor of that source, sometimes a lot sometimes a little. My conclusions are also biased, but I will try my best to see and state what I think is happening instead of wishful thinking.

My feeling is that what is going on is a major restructuring of the Mid-east and Caucasus. The superseding of presidents of the republics by the federal center is a prelude in my mind to changing of he republics' borders and or how they are governed.

Turkey is very interesting at the moment, if Kurds are given direct political representation(in the form of parties if 10% threshold is lowered) they are de-facto integrated into Turkish society because they will be able to leverage their political power between the two major blocks. The statement about Naxcivan is interesting, if this is populistic to try to gain electorate for the AKP it is an interesting way of going about it. If it is both political and actual policy then Turkey is setting up to integrate its' internal problems if Kurds are satisfied politically, and begin to dominate outward into the region on a very note that would not satisfy either Iran nor Russia since the Azeri integration would be very dangerous for both. The most likely outcome is more integration with Iraqi north decrease of tensions with the Kurds and perhaps some deal making behind the scenes. Recently there were elections in Iraq Iraq's Turkomans Feel New Political Strength - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
(very interesting article)
the aims of Kurds and Turkomans are perhaps different on Kirkuk today but things change...

I ll try to add more stuff a little a later and more opinion if need be still thinking.

[cyppok]

My take on the situation in Turkey is as follows there is a move to integrate the Kurds prior to Kurdistan becoming a sovereign state no matter how far off that is. The problem with the constitutional changes is that everyone wants to add a little bit more to what they want. In reality they (except the lower the treashold for political activity) are not necessary for Kurdish integration.

Now lets look into the future say 10 years from now the U.S. is out of Iraq and Kurdistan is a seperate state with a sizable Turkoman minority(at least 5%+) my guess is both countries would be far better off to accomodate each others minorities by granting them political recognition and equal treatment. Turkey would gain access to the oilfields and Kurds would most likely accept its territorial integrity as is, as long as their ethnic kin lived in a society that was tolerant of them.

The playbook here is in essence how Iran deals with Azeri's in its North and their integration into Iranian society which is very high. While that tolerance exists and the opportunities are open to all the want to join Azerbaidjan is not primary. Since economic opportunities in that state would be much worse than in Iran. Same thing applies here.

[TTL]

Yet there persists a problem: Integrating Kurds to mainstream society is extremely difficult. Both populations are largely uneducated, past mistakes are not easily forgotten, living standarts of both are very low and visionary-charismatic government plans for sustainable integration are non-existent.

The real problem with the constitional changes is that in Turkey, people should be changing rather than laws. After 50 years, majority of people are still living with pre WW2 political views. A them or us mentality nearing fascism and increasing levels of xenofobia are prelavent. Years and years of successive corrupt & inadequate politicians have erroded public confidency completely. Thus I am afraid for the near future we will have no chance but continue to surpress Kurdish people and fight PKK same time. If, in the long run, we can manage to improve socio-economic status of both populations we may finally live in harmony like americans manage to do.

[Ararat]

Turkey Publicly Stresses Its Obligations To Defend Naxcivan - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010
"Turkey Publicly Stresses Its Obligations To Defend Naxcivan"
April 30, 2010

According to that press release, "the Naxcivan Autonomous Republic is an exclave surrounded by the several countries. The Naxcivan autonomous formation is exposed to various threats from the side of the Armenian state. For that reason, military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan and the Naxcivan AR is one of the chief components of our relations."

This makes my day. Turks are afraid that one day (as it appears it might even be sooner) the rightful owners of Nakichevan (and Western Armenia) will become strong enough and take back what has been stolen from them, despite the Turkish Azeri hard work of cleansing all Armenians from the area, shiting all over the correct ancient Armenian names of the area, and the complete destruction of all structures as if to fool intelligent people that Armenians never existed there and land was never theirs. Whats the matter, good life has softened up your barbaric savage blood?

I like the way one of my friends (Hellektor) puts it in an Armenian Forum from his extensive research

Nakhijevan, December 2005 not 1905, 1915, 1918, 1920 or even 1988
Genocide in broad daylight, completely overlooked by the hypocritical “Christian” western states that would do anything for a few drops of oil

First of all it should be noted that 27,000 Armenian monuments of all kinds: churches, monasteries, stone-crosses, bridges, cemeteries, etc., have been accounted for by the scholar Argam Ayvazian in Nakhijevan alone and reports that have leaked from the illegally occupied province have confirmed that all the churches have already been razed to the ground, thus, no Armenian monument may actually be standing anymore in Nakhijevan.

In the exact manner of its progenitor Turkey where thousands of churches, monasteries and other Armenian monuments have been destroyed, especially since the end of WWII when the Turks feared that a victorious Russia would demand the return of Armenian territory ceded in 1921, similar methods of cultural genocide have been adopted in “Azerbaijan” and even in Christian Georgia. In the sick minds of these criminals, every trace of the millennia old Armenian presence all over the place must be erased lest someday the landlord might become strong and take back their property.

In December 2005 the “Azeri” usurpers of Nakhijevan resumed the destruction of what was left of the Khachkars also known as stone-crosses - a unique form of religious monument usually more than two meters high - of the Jugha cemetery to completely wipe any evidence of indigenous Armenians from their historic homeland of Nakhijevan, after they successfully conducted the ethnic “cleansing” of the province in front of the eyes of the consenting Soviet leaders.

Already in November 1998 and especially in November 2002 most of the Khachkars had been toppled and broken in pieces. Since this went unpunished as usual and organizations such as UNESCO did not show any concern, the genocidal occupiers finished their evil job in the final days of 2005 in broad daylight. In each case the atrocity could be seen and was photographed and videotaped from the Iranian side, yet to no avail.

[cyppok]

Yet there persists a problem: Integrating Kurds to mainstream society is extremely difficult. Both populations are largely uneducated, past mistakes are not easily forgotten, living standarts of both are very low and visionary-charismatic government plans for sustainable integration are non-existent.

The real problem with the constitional changes is that in Turkey, people should be changing rather than laws. After 50 years, majority of people are still living with pre WW2 political views. A them or us mentality nearing fascism and increasing levels of xenofobia are prelavent. Years and years of successive corrupt & inadequate politicians have erroded public confidency completely. Thus I am afraid for the near future we will have no chance but continue to surpress Kurdish people and fight PKK same time. If, in the long run, we can manage to improve socio-economic status of both populations we may finally live in harmony like americans manage to do.

It is never about education, it is about political (and thus economic) opportunity and equal representation under the law... People changing will not change the party barriers for Kurds to have direct representatives from their regions.

I extremely disagree with the statement you made at the end...
Its not about chance nor choice, if you suppress them, when not if Iraqi Kurdistan goes independent you will have severe problems. Russia will remember Turkey funding Chechens and fund Kurds indirectly. (Try to imagine Chechnya but magnified by 5-8 times... that's what your looking at if you do not integrate them). If they could get any of the border countries to assist them (I am talking about Syria here, that insurgency is going to be long and very very painful. Even Iraq if it is dived post-facto will have less problems with the Kurds in the north and thus transit will be viable through it).

[TTL]

People changing will not change the party barriers for Kurds to have direct representatives from their regions.

Actually the only thing that can remove this barrier system is if people can change and become more tolerant to minorities. Without this change of heart and mind the politicians who benefit from fear and animosity will always win and they won't allow a democratic society.

I extremely disagree with the statement you made at the end...

What I stated was also not about chance or choice. The situation is simply this: in the foreseeable future we cannot integrate the kurdish population,their nationalist and seperatist sentiment is currently high and will only become higher as you point. Therefore we have 2 options we will either allow them to secess or we will continue to keep them in Turkey by force.

you will have severe problems

We are already having severe problems and PKK was always funded by our rivals (we also fund their problems as you point). In the last week alone we lost about 10 soldiers. We have lost 30.000 since PKK was first founded and we can (and I fear will) lose another 30.000 without people protesting much. The sad fact is life or death of our soldiers are cheap.

I agree with you, we must integrate our kurdish population but I fail to see how that can be achieved.

[TTL]

Turks are afraid that one day (as it appears it might even be sooner) the rightful owners of Nakichevan (and Western Armenia) will become strong enough and take back what has been stolen from them

This is the kind of mentality that won't go anywhere. There is no Armenian living in western armenia anymore Ararat. What will you do all those Turks and Kurds if you somehow get those lands?

[cyppok]

Actually the only thing that can remove this barrier system is if people can change and become more tolerant to minorities. Without this change of heart and mind the politicians who benefit from fear and animosity will always win and they won't allow a democratic society.



What I stated was also not about chance or choice. The situation is simply this: in the foreseeable future we cannot integrate the kurdish population,their nationalist and seperatist sentiment is currently high and will only become higher as you point. Therefore we have 2 options we will either allow them to secess or we will continue to keep them in Turkey by force.



We are already having severe problems and PKK was always funded by our rivals (we also fund their problems as you point). In the last week alone we lost about 10 soldiers. We have lost 30.000 since PKK was first founded and we can (and I fear will) lose another 30.000 without people protesting much. The sad fact is life or death of our soldiers are cheap.

I agree with you, we must integrate our kurdish population but I fail to see how that can be achieved.

Tolerance only occurs if both parties are on the playing field, and they are not. If someone is a second class citizen under the law no amount of eduction will make their compatriots look at that person as equal.

If those two options are not expanded to a third where they gain political representation, then eventually Turkey will get smaller... If Iran can integrate the Azeris so well that they do not want to live in a seperate Azeri state, you can do the same for Kurds.

The problems you have now are nothing compared to what will happen then, imagine an exponential growth in violence.

This is the kind of mentality that won't go anywhere. There is no Armenian living in western armenia anymore Ararat. What will you do all those Turks and Kurds if you somehow get those lands?

This is actually very easy to answer, Poland, Chezhoslovakia, post WW2 every german was expelled and the lands where they were an extreme majority were settled by Poles, Chezhs respectively. Bulgaria post Ottoman collapse also comes to mind. Serbijan Krajina where the Serbs were expelled and land was settled by Croats (this happened very recently).

I doubt it will happen in Naxicivan, but it could. If Turkey has a government turmoil and the Kurdish insurgency explodes with de-facto control over large areas of southern-Turkey you will relive a post-soviet style collapse in essence.

[Ararat]

This is the kind of mentality that won't go anywhere. There is no Armenian living in western armenia anymore Ararat. What will you do all those Turks and Kurds if you somehow get those lands?

I know, after 1915 the population went from 80 percent to zero.........something about a Genocide.

Since you asked say Turkey decides to man-up to its crimes and honors the legal Treaty of Sevres (BTW Armenians hold the deed to Wilsonian Armenia, we just can't inforce it) funny thing would be that there are not enough Armenians in the world to populate the area properly.
As far as the Turks and Kurds they can have the option of living under the Armenian Government paying taxes or migrate to Turkey.

What would be the most important for Armenia is to have access to the Black Sea, a better border with Iran, a border with Russia, the opening of traditional ancient Armenian trading routes, fixing the broken down railroad system in the area, and having Mt Ararat back.

[troung]

Since you asked say Turkey decides to man-up to its crimes and honors the legal Treaty of Sevres

The Treaty of Lausanne did in Sevres. Before Lausane even occurred Armenia IIRC renounced Sevres and any land it felt due under Sevres after their rout in 1920 at the hands of the Turks; the USSR after taking back Armenia dropped it as well. Long dead issue.

BTW Armenians hold the deed to Wilsonian Armenia, we just can't inforce it

There is no "deed", Turkish borders are internationally recognized.

What would be the most important for Armenia is to have access to the Black Sea, a better border with Iran, a border with Russia, the opening of traditional ancient Armenian trading routes, fixing the broken down railroad system in the area, and having Mt Ararat back.

Never happen.

[TTL]

Tolerance only occurs if both parties are on the playing field, and they are not.

Cyppook I disagree with you on this. In Turkey the legal barriers for Kurds are not savage enough to characterize Kurds as second class citizens. While there are serious problems we are have no apartheid. And since power is hold by Turkish majority how these legal problems can be adressed unless Turks finally learn to respect other minorities and overcome their xenofobia?

If Iran can integrate the Azeris

Iran cannot even integrate persians. They are not a democracy and are kept together by religious propoganda + oil funded populist policy + force of arms. Who can tell what will happen if mollas somehow lose their grip on power?

This is actually very easy to answer..

I asked that question to highlight the political and human rights problems that would arise from such a scenario. In reality that cannot happen without war and possible outcomes of a war between Turkey - Armenia - KRG - Russia and probably US are incalculable.

Since you asked say Turkey decides to man-up to its crimes and honors the legal Treaty of Sevres

You are living in a dream world Ararat. Unless US public decides to invade Turkey for your sake or Russians decide to nuke Istanbul to have a stronger vassal you won't have a chance of enforcing sevres.

Such mentality will only bring more suffering to both your people and mine. We can argue about problems between our nations but first step should be to realize what we were told might be wrong and negotiation means compromises from both sides.

[cyppok]

The Treaty of Lausanne did in Sevres. Before Lausane even occurred Armenia IIRC renounced Sevres and any land it felt due under Sevres after their rout in 1920 at the hands of the Turks; the USSR after taking back Armenia dropped it as well. Long dead issue.



There is no "deed", Turkish borders are internationally recognized.

---------
I will boil down the most important grievances Kurds have to two, political representation and recognition of language rights. Those are critical.

Never happen.

I agree, but never is such a bad word, how about very very very unlikely.

My take is it is far more likely for Kurds to get land in an armed struggle because they have critical mass (population wise). Turkey should integrate since it does have this opportunity right now, it has contact and economic interests in Iraqi Kurdistan and can provide Kurds in Turkey with an outlet of their grievances without loosing them and territorially.

Btw Iran does recognize regional languages so that is partially not an issue for them. Also Azeris have political representation, many major politicians in Iran are Azeris. It may be that they are a religious state, but they do integrate their minorities better in those two areas...
Iran has many faults but this is not one of them.

I would say Turkey has done a far worse job than Iran in those areas. Economics conquer all but only if all have an equal voice, and if everyone is poor with an equal voice (Iran) then it is not nearly as destabilizing.

[Ararat]

The Treaty of Lausanne did in Sevres. Before Lausane even occurred Armenia IIRC renounced Sevres and any land it felt due under Sevres after their rout in 1920 at the hands of the Turks; the USSR after taking back Armenia dropped it as well. Long dead issue.



There is no "deed", Turkish borders are internationally recognized.



Never happen.

Come on who are you kidding. Armenia never signed any of those Turkish made treaties and the treaty of Kars was signed by USSR while Armenia was under its control. If the issue was dead and the current illegal Turkish borders recognized then ask yourself, why is paranoid Turkey going out of its way to get Armenia to sign into its current borders?

What do you want Turk.....for us to just forget what happened. Would you if you were invaded. Your people killed and uprooted from your historical lands and sent to the four corners of the world and then your history denied? I don't think Turks can, especially the Nationalists, to even start to understand what Western Armenia means to Armenians. You have 900 years history in that land. We have 4100 years as aborigines of that land and we were always majority there until 1915.

Turkey commits race extermination on Armenians, occupies Cyprus, and now massacres the Kurds and now wants to station troops in looser Azerbaijan against Armenian. Turkey is murderer Nation.

[troung]

Come on who are you kidding. Armenia never signed any of those Turkish made treaties and the treaty of Kars was signed by USSR while Armenia was under its control. If the issue was dead and the current illegal Turkish borders recognized then ask yourself, why is paranoid Turkey going out of its way to get Armenia to sign into its current borders?

The Treaty of Sevres was supplanted by Lausanne. Armenia gave up the issue in 1920 when it got routed on the battlefield, three years or so before Lausanne. The USSR gave up the issue. America/the civilized World respects Turkey's borders. The Turkish Republic did not recognize Sevres and won out, no one recognizes Sevres.

Armenia has no legal claim.

I don't think Turks can, especially the Nationalists, to even start to understand what Western Armenia means to Armenians.

Means a lot to Turkey as well and at the end of the day Turkey has legal title.

for us to just forget what happened. Would you if you were invaded. Your people killed and uprooted from your historical lands and sent to the four corners of the world and then your history denied

None of which gives Armenia a legal claim.

Turkey is murderer Nation.

:(

Turkey commits race extermination on Armenians, occupies Cyprus, and now massacres the Kurds and now wants to station troops in looser Azerbaijan against Armenian.

None of which has anything to do with Armenia having no valid legal claim to parts of the Republic of Turkey.

What do you want Turk..

I'm not from Turkey.

[Big K]

you know what?

enough of your B..hit. Murderer Turkey???

well we are here and we will be here, you are there and you dont even have balls to do something except talking and talking more talking.

and you will get something for your words about us.

and at the end of the day i think we must not open OUR borders so you can sit safe and isolated far from us The Murderer Turks!!! in your country.

oh wait you are not even in Armenia...