Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar Captured In Karachi

[S2]

More From The BBC

The BBC offers more commentary on the Baradur capture to include speculation that he'd been arrested earlier than indicated and that there's been a breach in relations between Omar and Baradur-

That's just a portion of what's offered in the article which appears a grab-bag of different theories being promoted-

Pakistan's Push For New Role In Afghanistan-BBC2 Feb. 19, 2010

[Vinod2070]

I'm of the belief that COAS has made a strategic reversal. What compelled such-inducement or coercement- is unknown. It could be as simple (but profound) as his reassurance of an enduring American engagement in the region that will stabilize Afghanistan to his satisfaction.

Just too soon to know.

I think at this point, this is a fair assessment. The change is too sudden and too big for most of us, though a pleasant one.

The quid pro quo of this shift is what I am waiting for.

[S2]

Vinod2070 Reply

"...though a pleasant one."

Seemingly.

"The quid pro quo of this shift is what I am waiting for."

Hence "seemingly".

[Merlin]

The BBC link that S-2 just mentioned is significant. The picture is getting more complex.

Pakistan's push for new role in Afghanistan

19 Feb [BBC] Afghanistan's punishing war is entering a new phase and Pakistan has made it clear it can and must play a leading role.

The sudden significant capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, second in charge in the Taliban hierarchy, comes at a crucial point.

Talk of negotiation is now taking centre stage, a strategy in parallel to a powerful military assault against Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan.

"There has been a change in Pakistan's attitude," said Pakistani author Ahmed Rashid, who has written extensively about the close links between Pakistan's military intelligence, the ISI, and Taliban leaders.

"Pakistan now wants to dominate any kind of dialogue that takes place."

Frustration

Mullah Baradar, reported to have been picked up by Pakistani and US intelligence agents in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi, may have become too independent.

Sources in Kabul say he and his envoys have been involved in secret talks with the Afghan president in Kabul, his representatives in southern Afghanistan and outside the country.

One senior Afghan official who, like others, is not commenting publicly for now, said: "This may be good for public opinion but, for us, it can have a negative impact.

"It was easier for us to talk to him."

A Western source involved in the process expressed frustration this channel was now being exposed and, for the moment, stopped.

More arrests have now been reported including two Taliban "shadow governors" who reported to Mullah Baradar.

Reports from Kandahar last month speculated that Mullah Baradar would soon be arrested because of growing tensions with Mullah Omar.

The two men have been close confidants. The Taliban leader had appointed him as one of his two main deputies after the movement was ousted from power in 2001.

Mullah Baradar rose to become the key military commander as Mullah Omar found it increasingly difficult to operate in the open.

"Pakistan has accomplished two objectives," remarked Lt Col Tony Shaffer, who served as an intelligence officer in Afghanistan in 2003, and is now at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies in Washington.

"They've shown us in the West they're willing to co-operate and they've taken out someone they didn't control." .....

[Vinod2070]

U.S. Pressed Pakistan for Taliban Chief's Arrest
By MATTHEW ROSENBERG

Pakistan's capture of the Afghan Taliban's operations chief came after months of U.S. pressure that involved showing officials details of intelligence that linked Pakistan's spy agency to Taliban attacks in Afghanistan.

Until Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's capture in Karachi earlier this month, Pakistan had refused American demands to crack down on the Afghan Taliban's leaders, most of whom are believed to reside in Pakistan.

U.S. officials cautioned that it was too early to say it marked a complete shift for the Pakistanis. "This is a good start—it's not the whole game," said a U.S. official in the region.

Mullah Baradar was the day-to-day leader of the Taliban, overseeing its political and military efforts and helping run its leadership council, known as the Quetta Shura for the southwestern Pakistani city where it is said to be based.

He was captured in an operation led by Pakistani agents and aided by American ones, say officials from both countries, who described it as a potentially major blow to the Taliban.

"He was the brains—he was pulling the strings" in the Taliban, the U.S official said. "Guys like that are hard to replace. You can't do it quickly."

But the Taliban remain a potent force in Afghanistan, where they control swaths of territory. Mullah Baradar's capture isn't expected to trigger the collapse of the Afghan insurgency.

The Taliban denied that Mullah Baradar has been arrested. Pakistani officials have refused to comment on the arrest, as has the White House and Central Intelligence Agency.

The arrest came as a surprise for many U.S. officials—and possibly for the Taliban, too. U.S. officials have long complained that Pakistan consistently refused to act on American-provided intelligence about the whereabouts of the Taliban's supreme leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, as well as Mullah Baradar and other Taliban leaders.

As recently as October, an officer in Pakistan's spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the Quetta Shura was an "American myth" and that no Taliban leaders spent any time in Pakistan.

Pakistan's reluctance to act led many U.S. officials to believe it viewed the Taliban as a potential proxy to help combat the growing influence of archrival India in Afghanistan, especially after an eventual American withdrawal.

To change that attitude, American officials, including Army Gen. Stanley McCrystal, the top commander in Afghanistan, made the case that it was in Pakistan's interests to go after the Afghan Taliban leadership because the militants are increasingly intertwined with that of the Pakistani Taliban, an offshoot Pakistan's military is currently fighting, said current and former U.S. officials familiar with the discussions.

The Americans also assured the Pakistanis that the U.S. will remain in the region and continue to provide resources to maintain stability.

At the same time, the U.S. presented what officials say was strong evidence that at least some ISI agents—a few of them senior—had told the Afghan Taliban about the movements and locations of NATO forces in Afghanistan.

ISI officers were also sitting in on Afghan Taliban leadership meetings and providing strategic guidance and logistical support to the group, the U.S. charged. There was also ample evidence of ISI funding of Taliban activities, the officials said.

With ISI officers attending meetings of the top Taliban leadership, the Pakistanis couldn't say they didn't know where Mullah Baradar was, said a former Defense Department official.

U.S. officials have in the past presented the Pakistanis with what they said was proof of ISI ties to the Taliban. American officials said Tuesday they still weren't clear on what prompted Pakistan to finally act.

A Western diplomat in Pakistan said the arrest could be seen in light of other recent Pakistani overtures on Afghanistan, where the Pakistanis have signaled an increased willingness to cooperate with American efforts. This month, for instance, the chief of Pakistan's military, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, offered to help train Afghan soldiers.

The Pakistanis have strongly hinted there will be a price for their cooperation: the limiting of India's growing influence in Afghanistan.

Presented with that theory, an ISI officer responded: "We can do a lot of things by working together closely." He didn't elaborate.

As for why the Pakistanis grabbed Mullah Baradar, the official said this was the first time they had been able to find him. He denied U.S. allegations that the ISI had aided the Taliban.

The arrest comes as the Taliban are under greater pressure than they have faced in years. Apart from a series of well-publicized offensives in Afghanistan, a senior U.S. commander said one of the coalition's most effective tools has been secretive special forces raids, which have led to the deaths or capture of at least six mid-level military and political leaders in southern Afghanistan in the past three months.

The situation in the south—the Taliban's spiritual and geographical heartland—has become so tenuous for the militants that their field commander in the region, Abdullah Gulam Rasoul, better known as Mullah Zakir, now works exclusively from Pakistan.

Only a few months ago, Taliban militants were touting Mullah Zakir as their answer to Gen. McChrystal and the American surge.

Beyond the south, coalition forces also recently captured the Taliban's so-called "shadow governor" of Laghman province, the official said.

The other big question about the capture of Mullah Baradar is where he stands on the possibility of peace talks over the future of Afghanistan—and how his arrest could affect efforts to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table on terms acceptable to the Afghan government and its Western backers.

Some U.S. officials said they believed Mullah Baradar, considered a pragmatist, was more inclined to talk than Mullah Omar. Pakistanis may see him as their way into peace talks, which they have expressed an interest in helping push along.

Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

U.S. Pressed Pakistan for Taliban Chief's Arrest - WSJ.com

[Vinod2070]

The Pakistanis have strongly hinted there will be a price for their cooperation: the limiting of India's growing influence in Afghanistan.

Not surprising at all. ;)

Mulla ki daud Masjid tak. (An Urdu proverb).

[S2]

Vinod2070 Reply

The WSJ article I read yesterday and just pulled out to use in a flaming argument with A.M. He's still adamant that there was no afghan leadership encamped upon their lands and only happenstance led to the arrest in Karachi. As to our involvement? American arrogance. Their op all the way!

"Not surprising at all.;)"

Yeah, the usual. The Pakistanis will attempt to talk over the top of the Afghans as though they don't exist. Until they get it through their thick skulls that Afghanistan is a sovereign state that must be realistically addressed on those terms we'll have war because the Afghan government aren't going to allow any Pakistani role in shaping their nation which doesn't conform to their own desires.

My only concern there is if we slice up Czechoslovakia for the Nazis and call it "...peace in our time..." before exiting stage right. I don't think so. Pakistan thinks the world revolves around them and notably fail to realize the myriad inputs to the decision-making.

BTW, I've lurkers here from elsewhere.

[Vinod2070]

^^ Well, AM is not here. I hope he was here to discuss this. They have banned me from their place forever. I think it was for sending you that invitation among other things.

I think whoever said that Pakistanis are in denial met AM that morning. ;)

AM: I know you will possibly read this. ;)

[Vinod2070]

I once argued with AM that Afghanistan is to them in many ways what Pakistan is to India.

An unstable neighbor to the West that can't keep its troubles home and that looks to grab its Eastern neighbor's territory to start with while at the same time having difficulty keeping itself together.

Yeah, the usual. The Pakistanis will attempt to talk over the top of the Afghans as though they don't exist. Until they get it through their thick skulls that Afghanistan is a sovereign state that must be realistically addressed on those terms we'll have war because the Afghan government aren't going to allow any Pakistani role in shaping their nation which doesn't conform to their own desires.

My only concern there is if we slice up Czechoslovakia for the Nazis and call it "...peace in our time..." before exiting stage right. I don't think so. Pakistan thinks the world revolves around them and notably fail to realize the myriad inputs to the decision-making.

A lot of false bravado among the internet warriors (almost always reserved to Pakistani forums now).

A terrible sense of the the world lining up to conspire against them, denying them their entitlements (like not being given a second chance in Bangladesh!), the right to decide what Afghans should do (as it is their backyard), the right to snatch Kashmir from India (Muslim majority), heck the right to rule the whole of India (the British won it from the Muslims in their version and so should have given it back to them. That it is historically false is another matter), the right to be the leader of the Ummah (being the only nuclear Islamic state).

The guys just have too many chips on the shoulders. The reality is so out of touch with the expectations that many just can't reconcile the two.

Then they have the likes of Zaid Hamid promising a Pakistani flag on Delhi's Red Fort and Radio Pakistan calling from Delhi. He has massive following among the youth.

[S2]

Vinod2070 Reply

"Zaid Hamid ... has massive following among the youth."

Yes. There is the usual nationalist xenophobic noise elsewhere among many of their young. There is a young man I'll be interested in seeing back here. He's on my Farhat Taj thread. He went home for some hunting after an exam break and offers some interesting and refreshingly different perspectives. We'll see if it makes it back.

There are changes. The noise over drone attacks has ratcheted down considerably. They occur without notice now. That's good because it stifles our one liberal voices who were screaming the wrong message too much. Oddly, many of them like Kilcullen, Exum, Tom Johnson come out of our military academia.

I've some hope that COAS isn't going to attempt a position with respect to negotiations that is untenable to others.

We'll just have to see. This thread will likely drift off shortly but the effects of this arrest (and others) won't.

[Tronic]

"S-2, How much leadership does the Quetta Shura have on the TTP?"

I don't know. How much control can any militant group's leadership ever really hold over its own potential rogues? What do you make of this?

Pakistan Militant Group Attacked By Suicide Bomber-BBC Feb. 18, 2010

"At least 15 people have been killed and more than 100 injured in a suicide bomb attack on a militant gathering in north-western Pakistan, officials say.

The bomber had blown himself up among pro-Taliban militants meeting in a compound by a crowded market selling hashish, a witness told the BBC."

"...could this be their way of saying, reign these guys in, or we reign you in?"

It appears, if that was ever an option for the Afghan taliban leadership, it's now been taken off the table. Matters have moved beyond that when you start busting the likes of Baradar.

"What will be most interesting to see is if these men are tried by Pakistan, or if they are simply "re-educated" and let go (a much used Pakistani tactic in the past)."

The ISI's laundry is now waving in the wind for all to see. There's no going back at this point without serious repercussions, IMHO. That dance is over. I'm of the belief that COAS has made a strategic reversal. What compelled such-inducement or coercement- is unknown. It could be as simple (but profound) as his reassurance of an enduring American engagement in the region that will stabilize Afghanistan to his satisfaction.

Just too soon to know.

Internal power struggles. The Pakistanis have become quite apt at picking and playing with the internal politics of the Taliban. Baradar may well be part of that game as some reports suggest. One of the key elements to look for would be Pakistani government-to-people engagement from now on. That usually answers the mentality of that state. Media there and Pakistani leaders till now have squarely blamed the presence of America for the war there. If we see a shift there where the leaders finally point to the AQ and the Taliban as the main culprits of the mess, than truly Pak has had a shift in mentality. For now, it is all speculative so we'll just have to wait and carefully watch the events unfold the next couple of weeks.

[S2]

Some Light Is Shed

From the NYT, it appears that Baradar's bust was a case of fortunate happenstance with him not necessarily being an identified target by either the U.S. or Pakistan.

This puts to bed thoughts a lot of the speculation, including mine about strategic shifts by Kiyani IMV-

In Pakistan Raid Taliban Chief Was An Extra Prize-NYT Feb. 18, 2010

The tip came from us and the Pakistanis acted upon it. American access in the interrogation process was denied for two weeks. That's worrisome as it means to me that the Pakistanis had time to cut a deal of their own and coach Baradar's interrogation by loading his lips perhaps.

There's a lot to think about here.

[Vinod2070]

Well, if this was a fluke and no policy, it would become obvious very soon.

People will go back to Good Taliban and the bad. This seems more plausible though. Pakistan is not known to leave their assets so easily. A Musharraf could do that. Even that was not a complete break.

Now it is more difficult than in 2001.

[S2]

Vinod 2070 Reply

There are lots of possibilities. It's possible even that the NYT is being used a bit for disinformation to create some negotiating room or they could be spot-on. We're at least weeks, probably months, and maybe years from knowing the true background on this.

[troung]

age last updated at 10:10 GMT, Friday, 26 February 2010
E-mail this to a friend Printable version
'No extradition' for Taliban chiefs held in Pakistan
By Syed Shoaib Hasan
BBC News, Islamabad

Taliban fighters in Ghazni province, Afghanistan - 23 January 2010
Afghan Taliban are thought to take orders from chiefs hiding in Pakistan

The Afghan Taliban's top military commander, who was recently detained in Pakistan, is not to be extradited, the Lahore High Court has ruled.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was arrested in early February. The court also banned extraditing four other Taliban chiefs reportedly seized recently.

But Pakistan has not confirmed the identities of any other militants held.

The order was in response to a petition filed by a rights activist to prevent the detainees from being sent abroad.

"The high court has ordered that none of the leaders should be handed over to the US or Afghanistan," Tariq Asad, a lawyer handling the petition told the BBC.

"The court has also said that none, other than Pakistan intelligence or security officials should be given access to the Taliban leaders," he said.

The court also ruled that the government should provide answers about the grounds on which the men were arrested.

Taliban arrests

Although Pakistani officials have confirmed the capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, there is little clarity about the other Taliban chiefs reportedly held.

Unnamed Pakistani officials have told US media about the arrests of several leading figures in the Afghan Taliban in recent weeks.

They are said to be:

* Mullah Abdul Salam, the "shadow governor" of Afghanistan's Kunduz province
* Mullah Mir Mohammad, the "shadow governor" of Baghlan province
* Mullah Abdul Kabir, believed to be a senior figure in the Taliban leadership and "shadow governor" of Nangarhar province

The petition named all of the above as well as Ameer Muawiyia, described as a senior Taliban officer based in Pakistan.

This may be another identity for a Taliban official, Mullah Mohammed Younis, reported on 22 February to have been arrested - but there are few details on when and where he was detained.

The decision is likely to deny the US and Afghan governments access to the detained commanders for the moment.