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Thread: What has happened to al Sadr?

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    No, his objective was an uprising. He failed. This was a consolation prize.

    Vis-a-vi the backdoor discussions going on with the other parties, this is peanuts. It doesn't hurt to talk to him but he is not the kingmaker you've made him out to be.
    With which other parties? The 4 MPs from the Iraqi Islamic Party? There are no other important talks going on, Allawi talked to the Kurds, they've said their differences are to big, Maliki is talking to the Kurds, they're making their demands just like Sadr only with 58 seats (26+17+8+4+2+1) they're not big enough to ensure anyone a majority.

    Sadr is the kingmaker, the one which manages to get him will form the government, leading a 70 man bloc Sadr would leave Allawi just 2 seats and Maliki just 4 seats short of a majority, with 2 independents around + 4 small blocs + the Kurds, that's no problem.
    If you fail to get an alliance with Sadr, you'll have to persuade every single small bloc + the Kurds to join you which since they're interests all conflict, won't be easy.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermanshahi View Post
    Sadr is the kingmaker,
    And you don't see it.

    From your own words

    Quote Originally Posted by Kermanshahi View Post
    Sadr has now removed his veto on Maliki, saying there will be no red-lines regarding Premiership in an alliance with the SLC (Maliki's coalition), however the reason the long anticipated SLC-NIA coalition hasn't been created yet (Maliki is desperetly pushing for this as otherwise he's out) is that Sadr has given Allawi the chance to send a delegation to convince him, which even Allawi knows is his last chance at Premiership.
    Translation: The King has decided. There is no way Sadr is going to stop Maliki but he can make life difficult. Now is the horse trading for Sadr to get the best deal he can get but the day that he is a show stopper are over.

    Maybe you're too inexperienced to read this but kingmakers don't make deals.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    And you don't see it.

    From your own words

    Translation: The King has decided. There is no way Sadr is going to stop Maliki but he can make life difficult. Now is the horse trading for Sadr to get the best deal he can get but the day that he is a show stopper are over.

    Maybe you're too inexperienced to read this but kingmakers don't make deals.
    Sadr can't stop Maliki? He can right now announce an alliance with Allawi, than Maliki's gone within a month.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermanshahi View Post
    Sadr can't stop Maliki? He can right now announce an alliance with Allawi, than Maliki's gone within a month.
    And so will Sadr's gains. Sadr's power broking is done. He has done the best deal he can. He ally with Allawi and he will end up in a worst position than before.

    Maliki knows this. Allawi knows this and so does Sadr.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 15 Apr 10, at 19:53.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    And so will Sadr's gains. Sadr's power broking is done. He has done the best deal he can. He ally with Allawi and he will end up in a worst position than before.

    Maliki knows this. Allawi knows this and so does Sadr.
    If Allawi can't allign with Sadr it means he's done for. No deal has been done yet, both sides are still negotiating. Both Maliki and Allawi are still trying to get Sadr into their bloc, they know if they can't they're done for and so they'll have to offer him whatever they can. Sadr on the other hand has no problem with going into the opposition of he doesn't like the gov't, he did it before, he'll do it again. Allawi has no motive to make things bad on Sadr, only to make things better for him cause that way he can get what he wants.

    And at the end of the day, both Maliki and particulary Allawi are only powerfull through alliances, if these collapse it leaves Maliki with a mere 22 deputies and Allawi with just 27, Sadr has 40, he has the biggest party and the biggest support.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermanshahi View Post
    And at the end of the day, both Maliki and particulary Allawi are only powerfull through alliances, if these collapse it leaves Maliki with a mere 22 deputies and Allawi with just 27, Sadr has 40, he has the biggest party and the biggest support.
    At the end of the day, Sadr is still not the kingmaker that you've made him out to be. Both Maliki and Allawi found common ground within their own alliances. Now, they need to add to those in order to form a government and that's where the horse trading comes in.

    You have absolutely zero clue as to how minority governments are formed. These are not scratch your back and scratch mine back type of deals. Actual policies are being formed here. Sadr knows his best chance of getting his style of policies passed is with Maliki. Allawi has more to deal more and thus will minimize Sadr's policy initiatives.

    If Sadr turns his back on Maliki now, then Allawi has him. Allawi could offer him less since Sadr has now played and thrown away the Maliki card.

    Or put it this way, both Malki and Allawi could just let Sadr stand as an independent.

    There's nothing in the Iraqi Consitution that stipulates the House MUST be ruled by a Majority instead of a Plurality.

    Either way, it's a 3 way street with Sadr being the weakest of the 3 and currently outside any political influence at all. Those inside Maliki and Allawi alliances currently has more say in those platforms than Sadr does. The only way Sadr could get a say into those platforms is to make deals. Pretending to dictate those platforms is not the way to do so.

    I suspect Sadr is more accute than you are. He's playing games, yes, but he also knows he has much to lose if he plays the game wrong and that is what you are not getting.

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    At the end of the day, Sadr is still not the kingmaker that you've made him out to be. Both Maliki and Allawi found common ground within their own alliances. Now, they need to add to those in order to form a government and that's where the horse trading comes in.

    You have absolutely zero clue as to how minority governments are formed. These are not scratch your back and scratch mine back type of deals. Actual policies are being formed here. Sadr knows his best chance of getting his style of policies passed is with Maliki. Allawi has more to deal more and thus will minimize Sadr's policy initiatives.

    If Sadr turns his back on Maliki now, then Allawi has him. Allawi could offer him less since Sadr has now played and thrown away the Maliki card.
    That's why Sadr still hasn't decided, he'll let them offer all they can and than chose the one which suits him best, important is that now he can make his demands and they will be forced to make concessions.

    Or put it this way, both Malki and Allawi could just let Sadr stand as an independent.
    Than they would have to ally themselfes with all other parties in the parliament (4 Kurdish parties, 2 Sunni parties, 2 Christian parties, 2 Kurdish independents and 1 Arab independent) to form a majority, which is unlikely and very difficult.

    here's nothing in the Iraqi Consitution that stipulates the House MUST be ruled by a Majority instead of a Plurality.
    A minority government wouldn't be able to even get their own PM approved, leave alone, rule the country.

    Either way, it's a 3 way street with Sadr being the weakest of the 3 and currently outside any political influence at all. Those inside Maliki and Allawi alliances currently has more say in those platforms than Sadr does. The only way Sadr could get a say into those platforms is to make deals. Pretending to dictate those platforms is not the way to do so.

    I suspect Sadr is more accute than you are. He's playing games, yes, but he also knows he has much to lose if he plays the game wrong and that is what you are not getting.
    He doesn't have much to loose, he left the government voluntarily in 2007 and since then being in the opposition has only increased his popularity, he'd do it again if neither is willing to give in to his demands.

    His power is that both sides will try to offer him more than the other side. If Maliki cuts him a better deal than Allawi is out and Allawi will try whatever he can to prevent this and that's what actually happened. Maliki was almost going to announce a new Shi'a alliance between I'tilaf Dawlat al-Qanon‎ and al-Itilaf al-Watani al-Iraqi, then Allawi sent a delegation to Qom to make Sadr a better offer. We don't know exactly they he told Sadr but it must have been significant because the alliance Maliki wants has still not been created and instead I'tilaf Dawlat al-Qanon‎ and Listi Kurdistan are sending new delegations to talk to him.

  8. #53
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    BEIRUT (AP) - A senior Iranian cleric says women who wear revealing clothing and behave promiscuously are to blame for earthquakes.

    Yep, imagine the earthquakes that Adam and Eve set off having nothing to wear but tree leaves.

    Iran is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries, and the cleric's unusual explanation for why the earth shakes follows a prediction by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that a quake is certain to hit Tehran and that many of its 12 million inhabitants should relocate.

    *Preferably the ones that know they got screwed in the elections.

    "Many women who do not dress modestly ... lead young men astray, corrupt their chastity and spread adultery in society, which (consequently) increases earthquakes," Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi was quoted as saying by Iranian media.

    Women in the Islamic Republic are required by law to cover from head to toe, but many, especially the young, ignore some of the more strict codes and wear tight coats and scarves pulled back that show much of the hair.


    "What can we do to avoid being buried under the rubble?" Sedighi asked during a prayer sermon Friday. "There is no other solution but to take refuge in religion and to adapt our lives to Islam's moral codes."

    *Cant say I remember reading anywhere that threatening others with destruction was part of the "Moral Code". Maybe dinnerjacket had it revised.

    Seismologists have warned for at least two decades that it is likely the sprawling capital will be struck by a catastrophic quake in the near future.

    Some experts have even suggested Iran should move its capital to a less seismically active location. Tehran straddles scores of fault lines, including one more than 50 miles (80 kilometers) long, though it has not suffered a major quake since 1830.

    In 2003, a powerful earthquake hit the southern city of Bam, killing 31,000 people - about a quarter of that city's population - and destroying its ancient mud-built citadel.

    "A divine authority told me to tell the people to make a general repentance. Why? Because calamities threaten us," said Sedighi, Tehran's acting Friday prayer leader.

    Imagine that, a divine authority told him and only him.

    Referring to the violence that followed last June's disputed presidential election, he said, "The political earthquake that occurred was a reaction to some of the actions (that took place). And now, if a natural earthquake hits Tehran, no one will be able to confront such a calamity but God's power, only God's power. ... So let's not disappoint God."

    The Iranian government and its security forces have been locked in a bloody battle with a large opposition movement that accuses Ahmadinejad of winning last year's vote by fraud.

    Ahmadinejad made his quake prediction two weeks ago but said he could not give an exact date. He acknowledged that he could not order all of Tehran's 12 million people to evacuate. "But provisions have to be made. ... At least 5 million should leave Tehran so it is less crowded," the president said.

    Minister of Welfare and Social Security Sadeq Mahsooli said prayers and pleas for forgiveness were the best "formulas to repel earthquakes."

    "We cannot invent a system that prevents earthquakes, but God has created this system and that is to avoid sins, to pray, to seek forgiveness, pay alms and self-sacrifice," Mahsooli said.

    You have much to pray for then. Get busy!)


    Umm Yeah! F'in fruitloops.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 19 Apr 10, at 18:20.
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  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermanshahi View Post
    That's why Sadr still hasn't decided, he'll let them offer all they can and than chose the one which suits him best, important is that now he can make his demands and they will be forced to make concessions.
    Nope. Sadr is not that powerful. Otherwise, he would be leading a coalition instead of playing 2nd fiddle.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kermanshahi View Post
    Than they would have to ally themselfes with all other parties in the parliament (4 Kurdish parties, 2 Sunni parties, 2 Christian parties, 2 Kurdish independents and 1 Arab independent) to form a majority, which is unlikely and very difficult.

    A minority government wouldn't be able to even get their own PM approved, leave alone, rule the country.
    Now, here you show your ignorance. All a minority government has to do is NOT to push through agendas that would force it to collapse. Minority governments happen all the time. You're forced through compromise with the other political parties, ie not to bring any legislation forward that would meet its collapse. A clean drinking water standard for instance.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kermanshahi View Post
    He doesn't have much to loose, he left the government voluntarily in 2007 and since then being in the opposition has only increased his popularity, he'd do it again if neither is willing to give in to his demands.
    Sadr has very much to lose. His party got voted in and must deliver on promises to the electorate or did you actually think that people voted for his party because he said so?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kermanshahi View Post
    His power is that both sides will try to offer him more than the other side. If Maliki cuts him a better deal than Allawi is out and Allawi will try whatever he can to prevent this and that's what actually happened. Maliki was almost going to announce a new Shi'a alliance between I'tilaf Dawlat al-Qanon‎ and al-Itilaf al-Watani al-Iraqi, then Allawi sent a delegation to Qom to make Sadr a better offer. We don't know exactly they he told Sadr but it must have been significant because the alliance Maliki wants has still not been created and instead I'tilaf Dawlat al-Qanon‎ and Listi Kurdistan are sending new delegations to talk to him.
    I don't see anything here that is out of the ordinary horse trading. Iraqi politics is in its infancy but don't try to snow me that Sadr is a kingmaker. He's a horse trader.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    BEIRUT (AP) - A senior Iranian cleric says women who wear revealing clothing and behave promiscuously are to blame for earthquakes.



    Umm Yeah! F'in fruitloops.
    Unfortunately this news report wasnt an exaggeration either about the 'seniority' of the cleric or the content of the sermon. He is a regular Friday prayers leader and often delivers fanatical/inflammatory speeches. I know that most people here wont understand Persian but just to give you an example of who he is here is the above mentioned speech he gave regarding 'promiscuous women' and earthquakes:



    I am confident that the vast majority of Iraqis do not want their future government to resemble the above.

    No way in hell can the 'Islamic revolution' be allowed to spread to Iraq...

  11. #56
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    I'd love to see that SOB stand in front of a gathering of women in my country or a few others and speak this trash. He'd be lucky to leave with his eyeballs still in his head after he got beaten within an inch of his life. Divorced and then thrown out on his sorry ass!

    I truelly feel bad for those that have to endure such brainwashing garbage. Now you have a better understanding of how we feel when a "supposed" holy man preaches such biast nonsense. It pisses off anyone that knows this is nothing but lies and controlling rhetoric.

    *Notice the women get all the blame. Whats that tell you?

    By stating a "divine athority" told him this it must be either the hookah, shisha or his "left hand posession" to be stating such irrational and unbelievable trash.

    The Almighty created one and all, not one above the other! I guess they left that out of his book. Idiot!
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 19 Apr 10, at 22:55.
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  12. #57
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    Too bad Kermanshahi (aka the Iranian Kurdish delusional teenager living in comfort and safety of Sweden) is bannished now, other wise I could ask him the following question:

    According to your own claim in this thread, as:

    They'd been counting the votes all day as they were coming in + 4 hours long after the polls had closed.
    Now! How could they count the votes ALL DAY while they were supposed to be in sealed ballot boxes?

  13. #58
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    Sadr's on the inside track

    Well, it looks like Moqtada's party is in line for some cabinet posts. He's decided to back Maliki after all.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/wo...st/02iraq.html

    There is rumour that the Sadrists might even get the valuable Ministry of the Interior--not likely, of course, but what a plum that would be!

    Better still, perhaps Maliki can now extort some more cash and concessions from the USA in exchange for not allowing the Sadrists to control certain ministries. That's what you call a win-win.

    All sarcasm aside, though, this is not a bad outcome since if enemies like Maliki and Sadr can make a coalition deal, that means civil war becomes less likely.

  14. #59
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    cape_royd, et al,

    If this happens, which it might, the other nations of the world will be laughing at us for decades.

    Quote Originally Posted by cape_royds View Post
    Well, it looks like Moqtada's party is in line for some cabinet posts. He's decided to back Maliki after all.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/wo...st/02iraq.html

    There is rumour that the Sadrists might even get the valuable Ministry of the Interior--not likely, of course, but what a plum that would be!

    Better still, perhaps Maliki can now extort some more cash and concessions from the USA in exchange for not allowing the Sadrists to control certain ministries. That's what you call a win-win.

    All sarcasm aside, though, this is not a bad outcome since if enemies like Maliki and Sadr can make a coalition deal, that means civil war becomes less likely.
    (COMMENT)

    It seems like only 7 months ago that Iraq's high court revalidated the arrest warrant against Muqtada al-Sadr for the assassinating moderate Shiite cleric Majid al-Khoie.

    The GOI making steady progress in fighting terrorists, meeting political milestones, building democratic institutions, and standing up ISF, are key short-term components to the defined National Strategy.

    With the constantly changing ground truth, these short-term components seem to be reversing, moving farther away, instead of making steady progress:

    Quote Originally Posted by Sunnis in Iraq Allied With U.S. Rejoin Rebels: NY Times By TIMOTHY WILLIAMS and DURAID ADNAN Published: October 16, 2010
    Although there are no firm figures, security and political officials say hundreds of the well-disciplined fighters — many of whom have gained extensive knowledge about the American military — appear to have rejoined Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. Beyond that, officials say that even many of the Awakening fighters (Awakening Councils, AKA Sons of Iraq) still on the Iraqi government payroll, possibly thousands of them, covertly aid the insurgency.

    Since the issuance of the warrant and near capture, at one time, Muqtada al-Sadr has been in Ayatollah School at Qom, Iran. The Iraqi PM (al-Maliki) arrange to have a meet with al-Sadr via contacts within the Islamic Government; earlier this month.

    It would be to al-Sadr's advantage to be an Ayatollah if he gets in a key position that will allow him to take advantage of the secular constitution of Iraq. Muqtada al-Sadr intends to return to Iraq, strong than when he left and more influential than the American Ambassador:

    Quote Originally Posted by SECTION ONE: FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES - Constitution for the Republic of Iraq
    Article 2:

    First: Islam is the official religion of the State and it is a fundamental source of legislation:

    A. No law that contradicts the established provisions of Islam may be established.

    B. No law that contradicts the principles of democracy may be established.

    C. No law that contradicts the rights and basic freedoms stipulated in this constitution may be established.

    With that Article in place, there is a volatile time-bomb that is posed to support both al-Sadr and Iran; harmless until future legislation is dependent on who has authority to interpret the article. I tend to think that our objectives are in serious trouble and we will all learn more about Muqtada al-Sadr in the future.

    Most Respectfully,
    R
    Last edited by RoccoR; 28 Oct 10, at 00:45.

  15. #60
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    IMO, Thats pretty interesting, I dont see any provision above for anyone being a citizen of Iran nor moving there for studies a few years ago to be counted in their elections. His teachings have zero to do with democracy, or treating the people fairly. More or less along Iranian believes. Which pretty much spells out death to reform, in any means or to treat their people better, host fair and transparent elections or treat the people with any better then third grade understanding and with a third grade education. Allowing him in would spell disater in the future for a country that wished no dictatorships. Iraq has the chance to grow far beyond Iran and its F'd up leadership, rants and threats. Iran doesnt want this, they want Iraq below them at all costs. If they allow this SOB in then they deserve exactly what will come their way and the US governemnt should present them with a bill they will never believe and if they cant pay it then hell, lets take oil instead as everybody has previously accused the US of doing since the beginning, even know we didnt get a drop.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 28 Oct 10, at 05:10.
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