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Is China's economy destined to crash?

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  • #91
    Originally posted by cdude View Post
    I would guess between 3 and 4?
    Simple math simply doesn't cut it.

    $69,000,000,000 / 1,307,593,000 (population) = $52.77 per capita.

    That would make the average household ~7,000 people (368,000 / 52.77)

    While I am at it, going further with the article...

    its total net household wealth—which includes assets such as homes and deposits—was $69 trillion in 2010, a fifth higher than the same figure in the U.S
    So for the US that will be $57.5bn. [69bn / 120%(one fifth higher)]

    $57,500,000,000 / 300,000,000 = $191.67 per capita in USA.

    Or
    $499,000 / 191.67 = 2,600 people per household.


    The high asset is due to the high savings rate and the housing market(bubble). But still, that's some amazing job the communists have been doing in the past 30 years.
    At first glance, numbers doesn't make sense.

    However, doing simple math you can safely assume that Chinese population policy is a fail

    If they can fix that air, but all my friends want to drive in Beijing, what can you do? Sometimes one wishes Mao would come back and end all the madness in Beijing. Too many cars.
    Too many wrong data. Only the smog in Beijing is real.

    That's without going into details how the author figured $69bn for China being 20% more then US market.
    Last edited by Doktor; 25 Sep 13,, 21:10.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by Doktor View Post
      Simple math simply doesn't cut it.

      $69,000,000,000 / 1,307,593,000 (population) = $52.77 per capita.

      That would make the average household ~7,000 people (368,000 / 52.77)

      While I am at it, going further with the article...

      its total net household wealth—which includes assets such as homes and deposits—was $69 trillion in 2010, a fifth higher than the same figure in the U.S
      So for the US that will be $57.5bn. [69bn / 120%(one fifth higher)]

      $57,500,000,000 / 300,000,000 = $191.67 per capita in USA.

      Or
      $499,000 / 191.67 = 2,600 people per household.




      At first glance, numbers doesn't make sense.

      However, doing simple math you can safely assume that Chinese population policy is a fail


      Too many wrong data. Only the smog in Beijing is real.

      That's without going into details how the author figured $69bn for China being 20% more then US market.
      wow, blahblah blah, you go back and check what trillion means and redo your calculation.

      You don't own me no apology. But you come across quite idiotic with all the "maths" and your smug conclusions today.

      Comment


      • #93
        Even if you add 1000 it is still weird comparison. And chinese fam would be what 7?!

        Edit: Yes, my pocket calculator doesn't go to that many figures.
        Last edited by Doktor; 25 Sep 13,, 21:36.
        No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

        To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

        Comment


        • #94
          Originally posted by Doktor View Post
          Even if you add 1000 it is still weird comparison. And chinese fam would be what 7?!

          Edit: Yes, my pocket calculator doesn't go to that many figures.
          Even if I added 1000?

          Pocket calculator aint your problem.

          Comment


          • #95
            I did the math wrong, but you are missing the point.

            Going all over again...

            $69tn / 1.3bn population = $52,770 per capita. You seriously buy that? Do you own that much? Does your family? Can you make that average for the people you know in China?

            $368k / $53k = 6.9 people average Chinese household. Is it true?
            No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

            To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by Doktor View Post
              I did the math wrong, but you are missing the point.

              Going all over again...

              $69tn / 1.3bn population = $52,770 per capita. You seriously buy that? Do you own that much? Does your family? Can you make that average for the people you know in China?

              $368k / $53k = 6.9 people average Chinese household. Is it true?
              That $368K number is NOT income, it's asset. And why should I question that number? A sorry ass apartment in Beijing would cost twice of that.

              I don't have that much assets, but that's because I went to the US at a young age and missed the real estate boom. My family and my friends didn't. Does that answer your question?

              Comment


              • #97
                Anybody read this book?

                Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China's Future: Mr. Timothy Beardson: 9780300165425: Amazon.com: Books

                Just started it.

                Comment


                • #98
                  I think we need to define what a crash is.

                  Are we talking about a crash similar to 2008? or are we talking about a crash like the great depression.

                  I'm thinking that if it does crash, it would be no worse than 2008.

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