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  • Xinhui,

    At the risk of going off-topic...The Russia option may be the reason the chinese are not being aggressive about the pipeline.

    The IPI pipeline poses several possible risks and rewards for the Chinese government. With India out of play, Iran has less leverage to drive a hard bargain on gas prices, and a new over-land energy link would help further China’s energy diversification strategy. However, the project faces several political and logistical difficulties that could scuttle Chinese participation.

    The pipeline’s path is set to traverse some very difficult terrain in Pakistan’s Gilgit region, increasing the costs and time required to eventually connect to Xinjiang. Moreover, the massive investment required to link China would be imperiled in the event of an American attack on Iran or mass civil upheaval in Pakistan. Given the geopolitics and the harsh terrain involved, Beijing might just be feigning interest in the IPI pipeline to get a better deal in negotiations with Russia on relatively safer Siberia-China gas pipelines.
    source:India, China & the IPI pipeline

    Comment


    • The Siberia-China gas pipelines has been a done deal over a year now and that single pipeline while political significant only provides up to 15% of China's oil needs (at 2005 level).

      Analyst sees the IPI pipeline is a secondary side show in the greater scheme of things. China speaks of a pipeline, but it is the coal that they are after. They can covert coal to gas at 3.20 USD a gallon.


      Going back to Nepal, while I understand where the India's concern lays, but there is little chance of a Chinese "replacement" of India as the main outside influence into Nepal's internal politics and most analysts also subscribe to that view. (the whole Maoist vs the Army protest that is going on right now)

      For China, the Tibetan exile community in Nepal calculates in its decision to aid Nepal, their main goal is to remove Nepal as an active site for the anti-China protest. For that, they have been successful.









      AFP: China's Hu unveils landmark Turkmenistan pipeline
      China's Hu unveils landmark Turkmenistan pipeline

      By Anton Lomov (AFP) – 2 days ago

      SAMANDEPE, Turkmenistan — China's President Hu Jintao on Monday unveiled a landmark pipeline to transport Turkmen natural gas to China, a key victory for Beijing in its drive for access to Central Asian resources.

      Hu, together with the presidents of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, turned a symbolic wheel at a refinery in Samandepe in Turkmenistan's vast Karakum desert which opened the pipeline to start the first gas flowing.

      "China is positive about our cooperation and the opening of this gas pipeline is another platform for collaboration and cooperation between our friendly nations," Hu told reporters.

      The 7,000 kilometre (4,350 mile) gas pipeline is a significant victory for Beijing, marking the culmination of years of lobbying for influence over the region's strategic energy resources, traditionally dominated by Moscow.

      It first runs for 1,800 kilometres in Central Asia -- snaking through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan -- before linking up with a further 5,000-plus kilometres of pipeline in China's far-west Xinjiang region.

      The China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) will eventually import up to 40 billion cubic metres of gas a year through the pipeline when it reaches full capacity in 2012-2013.

      Central Asia, a vast resource-rich region wedged between Afghanistan, China Russia and Iran, has been dominated by Moscow since the Kremlin began aggressively expanding its imperial borders in the 19th century.

      Moscow has struggled, however, to maintain its influence here in recent years, especially as its coffers have been depleted by the global financial crisis, which has buffeted Russia's commodities-driven economy.

      But where Moscow has faltered, Beijing has succeeded, wielding its influence in the form of its enormous cash reserves, handing out loans and construction projects such as the Turkmenistan pipeline to woo the region's leaders.

      Beijing has spent heavily across Central Asia this year, including a 10 billion dollar (6.78 billion euros) loan to Kazakhstan and a 4 billion dollar (2.71 billion euros) credit to Ashgabat in a bid for access to the massive South Yolotan gas field.

      Hu was joined at the ceremony by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Berdymukhamedov, a rare gathering by the often bickering neighbours that illustrates China's growing regional clout.

      Standing alongside his fellow heads of state in front of the gleaming new metal pipes of the refinery, Berdymukhamedov praised the pipeline as an important step in the development of peaceful regional relations.

      "Today?s launch of the pipeline will become a new chronicle in the relations of our countries and will stand as a golden page," in their history, he told reporters.

      Turkmenistan, an energy-rich but isolated ex-Soviet nation, is believed to have some of the biggest gas reserves in the world, nearly all of which is currently exported to Russia via a network of ageing Soviet-era pipelines.

      Berdymukhamedov pledged to open up his country to greater international cooperation and investment following the death of enigmatic dictator Saparmurat Niyazov in 2006.

      A pipeline explosion earlier this year sparked a row with Russian energy giant Gazprom that saw exports of Turkmen natural gas almost completely cut off, prompting Ashgabat to accelerate efforts to secure alternative routes.

      The EU has been anxious to exploit the rift to secure Ashgabat's cooperation in a direct export pipeline to help ease Europe's reliance on Russian natural gas supplies, but has struggled to win concessions.
      Last edited by xinhui; 16 Dec 09,, 11:08.
      “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        But the answer is so simple that it elludes the Indian leadership. You want both Pakistan and China to faltered? Easy. India makes peace with Pakistan.
        Col,

        Making peace with Pakistan isn't the easiest thing at all. If anything, you've just listed the one thing that's not going to be possible at least for a decade to come. India cannot and will not make peace with a country that pushes terrorists in everyday and bombs its cities every other month. For example -- if Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal were to be bombed, repeatedly, would the Canadian government want to make peace with the entity that was behind it ?
        An Indo-Pak peace deal may (stress on "may") work well in theory and sound good to the peace activists, but in practice, it is impossible until and unless terrorism against India isn't continued as a state policy.

        Originally posted by antimony View Post
        Col.

        Not impossible, just very difficult in the current atmosphere. In a few years, after the poisonous air clears a bit, the chances would definitewly improve.
        Absolutely. Until the next 26/11 where India is pushed to the brink of war (or beyond at the time). It's not like we have a bad relationship with Pakistan because we are unreasonable.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by axeman View Post
          Col,

          Making peace with Pakistan isn't the easiest thing at all. If anything, you've just listed the one thing that's not going to be possible at least for a decade to come. India cannot and will not make peace with a country that pushes terrorists in everyday and bombs its cities every other month. For example -- if Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal were to be bombed, repeatedly, would the Canadian government want to make peace with the entity that was behind it ?
          An Indo-Pak peace deal may (stress on "may") work well in theory and sound good to the peace activists, but in practice, it is impossible until and unless terrorism against India isn't continued as a state policy.
          Canada held a referendum in Ottawa. And the canadian government did that without bombings etc. Sure we are comparing apples & oranges but my point is it cuts both ways.

          Originally posted by axeman View Post
          Absolutely. Until the next 26/11 where India is pushed to the brink of war (or beyond at the time). It's not like we have a bad relationship with Pakistan because we are unreasonable.
          So another 26/11 happens. What are India's options? I heard Cold Start was put in cold storage by Indian military.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by axeman View Post
            An Indo-Pak peace deal may (stress on "may") work well in theory and sound good to the peace activists, but in practice, it is impossible until and unless terrorism against India isn't continued as a state policy.
            That's the point. It ain't about peace. It's about pushing China and Pakistan towards war against each other. It ain't easy and it requires a strategic brilliance and courage that I don't know if it exists ever since Otto Von Bismarck.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              Again, you're not seeing what I'm seeing. You're seeing if India acts correctly, there is a prosperous future between China and India.

              Look at it from my view, if India acts correctly, there will be war between Pakistan and China.

              See the difference?
              You are right, I was not thinking from a military perspective, more from an economic development perspective.
              "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

              Comment


              • The most powerful guardian of PA is the US. The only thing preventing India punishing PA is presence of US.It is the US and Saudi money which has kept PA/Pakistan floating.

                Now given the state of war in Afghanistan, an open secret of PA's support of Taliban and possible US withdrawal, one can only imagine what will be the state of PA-US relation in the future.

                Would US forgive PA so easily for the death of so many US servicemen?

                What this does,it puts PA solely dependent on China. To what extend is China willing to help PA? other than providing some arms on discount.
                Given how PA chose it's religious brethren over US goodwill, it would be interesting to watch what will PA chose if it ever comes to Chinese v/s holy warriors.

                Add to this, once US withdraws, the "holy warriors" will be so over the moon with "defeating two superpowers!", they might as well as turn their attention to helping theirs brothers in China!

                And it makes sense to for India to keep the Pakistani in Pakistan. After all Pakistan was technically formed as a "home for Indian Muslims". The more absurd things Pakistan does, the Muslims in India will thank God they stayed back!
                So India will wait and watch. This is probably the one of the reason why it did not retaliate post 26/11. Why disturb the show.

                Comment


                • The most powerful guardian of PA is the US. The only thing preventing India punishing PA is presence of US.It is the US and Saudi money which has kept PA/Pakistan floating.
                  The 1990s were a long decade, no punishing occurred.

                  Given how PA chose it's religious brethren over US goodwill, it would be interesting to watch what will PA chose if it ever comes to Chinese v/s holy warriors.
                  They will turn over random Uighurs.
                  To sit down with these men and deal with them as the representatives of an enlightened and civilized people is to deride ones own dignity and to invite the disaster of their treachery - General Matthew Ridgway

                  Comment


                  • Deltacamelately,

                    Speaking of cold start...I read an article on BR that the air force is not very happy with it's role in the cold start doctrine. Looks like they think they can knock the PAF out of air easily and don't want to waste their planes as supporting assets to army units. The article also talks about how the army has been working on the cold start doctrine. Can you shed more light on this?

                    :: Bharat-Rakshak.com - Indian Military News Headlines ::

                    Comment


                    • A lot of unrelated news reports seem to make sense (with the news report in question), sometimes alleged terrorists are reported to be killed or arrested and nothing that the authorities said makes any sense, i used to assume all of them were encounters gone bad.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by calass View Post
                        Deltacamelately,

                        Speaking of cold start...I read an article on BR that the air force is not very happy with it's role in the cold start doctrine. Looks like they think they can knock the PAF out of air easily and don't want to waste their planes as supporting assets to army units. The article also talks about how the army has been working on the cold start doctrine. Can you shed more light on this?

                        :: Bharat-Rakshak.com - Indian Military News Headlines ::
                        Calass,

                        Read here - http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/lan...-reviewed.html


                        Lot of information along with the professional's comments.
                        sigpicAnd on the sixth day, God created the Field Artillery...

                        Comment


                        • Party leaders advised the PM to assure the Chinese leaders that Nepali soil would not be used for anti-China activities.
                          I have been saying that for sometime now, the Chinese primary goal is to shutdown the Tibetan protest.




                          PM leads 36-member team to China

                          Last Updated : 2009-12-26 1:12 PM

                          *

                          The Himalayan Times - Saved Articles(s)

                          Kamal Dev Bhattarai

                          KATHMANDU: Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal today embarked on a six-day official visit to People’s Republic of China, leading a 36-member delegation.

                          The delegation includes Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Sujata Koirala, Minister for Finance Surendra Pandey, Minister for Irrigation Dr Prakash Sharan Mahat, Foreign Secretary Dr Madan Kumar Bhattarai, officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, PM’s Foreign Affairs Advisor Rajan Bhattarai, a team of industrialists, PM’s wife Gyatri Nepal, journalists from the state-owned media and security personnel.

                          Nepal reached Lhasa, the centre of Tibetan Autonomous Region this evening. Besides Lhasa, the PM Nepal will visit Xian, Beijing and Shanghai.

                          Talking to mediapersons at Tribhuvan International Airport prior to his departure, Nepal said his visit would focus on enhancing the mutual and historical relationship between the two countries. He clarified that the visit was not intended to beg assistance from China. However, the ministerial-level talks will be held between the two countries to dwell on assistance and development projects, Nepal added.

                          The PM is visiting China on the invitation of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. He is scheduled to meet Chinese President, top political leaders and high-ranking officials.

                          Agreement on economic cooperation to the tune of 15 million yuan is expected to be signed during the visit. Nepal has been seeking Chinese assistance to build hydropower projects, highways in mid-hills and develop infrastructure.

                          Before leaving for the airport, Nepal briefed the leaders of the 25 political parties about his visit at his residence in Baluwater. Parliamentary Party leader of the Nepali Congress Ram Chandra Paudel said besides the development projects and assistance, the PM would raise the issue of cooperation among the Asian countries.

                          Paudel said, “We should develop Asian unity to collectively raise our many shared concerns at the international arena.”

                          Party leaders advised the PM to assure the Chinese leaders that Nepali soil would not be used for anti-China activities.

                          Chairperson of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party Pashupati Shumsher Rana said, “We told the PM that he should assure the Chinese leaders about this issue, as China has been expressing its security concerns in Nepal.”

                          The Himalayan Times : PM leads 36-member team to China - Detail News : Nepal News Portal
                          “the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to the misery of not being exploited at all” -- Joan Robinson

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