A German election is due next Sunday. It is expected to be dull, and Angela Merkel is expected to be the winner.
So we just wait and see.
Much is at stake in the German election
So we just wait and see.
Much is at stake in the German election
20 Sept [FT] Germany goes to the polls next Sunday, and hardly anybody cares. There are three frequently stated reasons for this lack of interest. First, the campaign has been exceptionally dull. Second, Angela Merkel will almost certainly re-emerge as chancellor no matter what the result. And third, nobody expects any concrete policy changes.
The first of those judgments is correct, the second is correct but misleading. The third is wrong.
Ms Merkel will probably be re-elected chancellor, but her power and political longevity will greatly depend on which coalition emerges after the elections. One of the two most likely constellations is a small centre-right coalition, led by Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian allies, and the liberal Free Democratic party. The other is another grand coalition with the Social Democratic party.
If a centre-right coalition emerges on Sunday, Ms Merkel will be secure. The centre-right is still marginally ahead in the polls, but the lead has narrowed. If the CDU’s share of the vote falls below the already disappointing result of 2005, Ms Merkel could be in trouble. She would probably not be toppled, but would have to confront many unsuccessful, angry CDU parliamentary candidates. .....
The first of those judgments is correct, the second is correct but misleading. The third is wrong.
Ms Merkel will probably be re-elected chancellor, but her power and political longevity will greatly depend on which coalition emerges after the elections. One of the two most likely constellations is a small centre-right coalition, led by Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian allies, and the liberal Free Democratic party. The other is another grand coalition with the Social Democratic party.
If a centre-right coalition emerges on Sunday, Ms Merkel will be secure. The centre-right is still marginally ahead in the polls, but the lead has narrowed. If the CDU’s share of the vote falls below the already disappointing result of 2005, Ms Merkel could be in trouble. She would probably not be toppled, but would have to confront many unsuccessful, angry CDU parliamentary candidates. .....
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