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Turkey's resurgent role in Middle East

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  • Turkey's resurgent role in Middle East

    In George Friedman's new book "The Next 100 Years" he predicts that about 2020 Russia and China will be fragmenting due to demographic problems and Turkey and Japan will seek to defend their interests in these new spheres of influence.

    One way Turkey will do this according to George Friedman is by tapping into the large Turkic and Muslim population of Central Asia and seeking to use the vast amounts of resources of Central Asia to rebuild itself.

    He also predicts Turkey will send troops down into Kurdistan to deal with the PKK government once and for all. They may also seek to spread their influence in the Arab world highlighting Arab fear of Iran and presenting itself as a resurgent Muslim power.

    I have found the works of one Pan Turkish Islamist called Harun Yahya quite interesting as he says as he says Turkey is the only modern developed country with a professional and powerful military that is stable.

    George Friedman also predicts that Poland will reassert itself following Russia`s collapse and become the leader of a new East European bloc. This may lead to some future confrontation with Turkey given Poland`s large Catholic population and historical conflicts.

  • #2
    My father is reading it. I can't tell if Friedman is a quack or a visionary. Some of the theories put forth are very wild at the first appearance. Maybe better informed WABers who had actually read the book can enlighten us with the truth about Friedman?
    All those who are merciful with the cruel will come to be cruel to the merciful.
    -Talmud Kohelet Rabbah, 7:16.

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    • #3
      One way Turkey will do this according to George Friedman is by tapping into the large Turkic and Muslim population of Central Asia and seeking to use the vast amounts of resources of Central Asia to rebuild itself.He also predicts Turkey will send troops down into Kurdistan to deal with the PKK government once and for all. They may also seek to spread their influence in the Arab world highlighting Arab fear of Iran and presenting itself as a resurgent Muslim power
      How many wars should it need ?How strong Turkey is?Do you guys don't plan to join EU?
      Am I too stupid to understand what he want to say or it's just a joke?
      Last edited by Luke Gu; 14 Sep 09,, 11:44.

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      • #4
        I have read the book and I must say that I didn't really like it. Anyway, a few points on the questions asked:

        First of all, Turkey already is a regional power and right now does have momentum. The whole European Union affair, however, seems to be moving quite slow. Greece and Cyprus do have a part in that (I don't think that we need to have a discussion here why, or if it's justified) but I am not sure these are the only European nations that have reservations. Turkey seems to understand that and is trying to stand on her own (and that's good for Turks, if you ask me). Serious steps towards reforms have been made; only recently talks considering the Kurds have been initiated so it seems to me that Turkey, at least for now, doesn't seem to choose the violent path, so extreme measures at the near future don't seem likely.

        On the other hand, I really can't see a weakened Russia and China in such a degree that they won't be able to stand up to Turkey. Also, while Turkey is a valiable ally and of strategic importance to the U.S., I don't really believe that the latter will allow Turkey to become a superpower, or, at least a much greater power that it already is. A strong ally is one thing, a potential competitor in vital areas of interest another.

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        • #5
          One thing that the Turks will have to deal with in the future is Wahhabism. The Al-Saud royal family base their power as Custodians of the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

          If the Turks are resurgent again and depending on dwindling Saudi Arabian Oil levels the Al-Sauds may find their position threatened becuase the whole ideogolgy of Wahabism and the founding of Saudi Arabia was based on rebelling against the Ottoman empire.

          If Turkey begins to reasert its role as George Friedman predicts as leader of the Muslim World then the Al-Sauds will need to come up with a new strategy to survive. I was reading the Seven Pillars of Wisdom by TE Laurnece and it made me think that the majority of muslims actually resent the Wahhabi Monopoly on the holy Cities.

          It would not take much for Turkey to try to reclaim its old position and as George Friedman predicts and form a new Caliphate.

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          • #6
            I hear what you say, oh Great One! Problem is, Turkey practically screams that it is a secular country. It was the principle idea, the ideology of Kemal Ataturk was built around. I truly doubt Turkey will ever reject that in favour of leading the Islamic world.

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            • #7
              one thing to add for the moment;

              dont take Harun Yahya in serious, we dont...

              he is known as "adnan hoca", a liar & cheater.
              Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

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              • #8
                wahabbis were (actually are) a bunch of tribal junk and a blasphemy to the Islam as well.

                i have no tolerence about this and no democracy for wahabbis, they should be slaughtered long ago if West would not back them.

                Türkiye's such resurgency, rather than a new Caliphate, would only be possible with the elaboration of those mentioned peoples on Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's principles which were already been an influence on many other nations in the past.
                Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

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                • #9
                  I think after this point

                  "George Friedman also predicts that Poland will reassert itself following Russia`s collapse and become the leader of a new East European bloc."

                  I'm going to ROFLZ @ him.

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                  • #10
                    The political direction that Turkey is heading at the moment under the AKP is not one which is highly keen on any Pan-Turkic cooperation. Of course cooperation with the Central Asian Turkic states is occurring, but the current government is much more interested in fulfilling American and European demands than consolidation and further integration with Central Asia. And without the broader Turkic community, Turkey does not have much leverage on a global level (though, as has already been stated, it is a regional power).

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Big K View Post
                      wahabbis were (actually are) a bunch of tribal junk and a blasphemy to the Islam as well.

                      i have no tolerence about this and no democracy for wahabbis, they should be slaughtered long ago if West would not back them.

                      Türkiye's such resurgency, rather than a new Caliphate, would only be possible with the elaboration of those mentioned peoples on Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's principles which were already been an influence on many other nations in the past.
                      The problem with leaders in Turkey is that they ignored what Ataturk did in his international sphere, today they are slowly coming around. Internationalism almost always wins against nationalism. The Kuridish and Armanian questions will get solved very fast if forgive and forget internationalism prevails, ergo acceptance of the problem and complete integration of the polity into the political process as long as they want to be a part of it, if not then brute force.
                      Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Mobbme View Post
                        I think after this point

                        "George Friedman also predicts that Poland will reassert itself following Russia`s collapse and become the leader of a new East European bloc."

                        I'm going to ROFLZ @ him.
                        The Visegrad Group - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia
                        they tried so far its not going as planned.

                        Slovakia and Hungary have been at each others throats lately over the language law issued in Slovakia. Theoretically if Poland increased their population to 50 or 60million they would have a much larger impact on regional politics, or if the organization actually worked like a block and added a member or two to push them closer to 80-100 mil mark.

                        The problem Poland faces is that they wanted to agglomerate part of the eastern commodities through it via provision of value added manufacture and then shipping it westward they are partially successful in some areas. But for the most part they are locally adding value to their own produce in specialized niches instead of being a conduit. They probably saw Ukraine and Belarus as the likely suppliers of commodities flowing through Poland as more value is extracted via the flow of goods, to some degree that didn't happen. Just regional cross border trade that is slowly developing without massive directional aspect other than energy of course.
                        Originally from Sochi, Russia.

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                        • #13
                          There's a funny blog on that book here!

                          Nonfiction review: 'The Next 100 Years'

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by clackers View Post
                            There's a funny blog on that book here!

                            Nonfiction review: 'The Next 100 Years'

                            The use of 'nonfiction' to describe a book predicting the next 100 years is beyond charitable.
                            sigpic

                            Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                            • #15
                              cyppok,

                              today our leaders are getting away and away from Atatürk day by day.
                              Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none; be able for thine enemy rather in power than use; and keep thy friend under thine own life's key; be checked for silence, but never taxed for speech.

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