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  • #16
    Two recent cases.

    Ice Storm 98 and Sichuan Earthquake. The US and Canada came through without a hitch. Let's not mention Blackout 2003. China is the better example. An entire province went through what 4000 nukes could not do (toss a road to the other side of the mountain?) and yet, the province did not cease to exist.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Parihaka View Post
      Gosh, you mean some engineers have studied the problem in a report and made recomendations about what to do? Well blow me down, according to the newspaper clip

      "....would cripple the American economy, and render the US government at all levels incapable of restoring order or preventing mass starvation."
      Somebody should tell those engineers who say

      "that such impacts are certain in an EMP event unless practical steps are taken to provide protection for critical elements of the electric system and to provide for rapid restoration of service, particularly to essential loads."
      Yeah, that's what I mean. But that's not what you said, you said, and I cite quite literally:

      Pfft. I wasn't aware that an EMP attack would remove the ability of every electrical engineer in the country to think or act.
      Which I believe refers to electrical engineers thinking after the fact.

      Now you seem convinced the recommendations have been implemented in full in the US, or Europe for that matter, but it is legitimate to wonder just how you arrived at such knowledge.
      L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        Since all nuclear materials are accounted for by the IAEA, unless the Iranians have a uranium mine that no one knows about or see from space or not have flooded the market.
        The article is pretty straight forward in this point, it states:

        As the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Teheran's nuclear program makes clear, at its present rate of uranium enrichment, Iran will have sufficient quantities of enriched uranium to build two atomic bombs by February.
        This claim is either true or false.

        I'm not prepared to ponder the question, but you are. I gather that you disagree with such assessment. If you are sure about it, that's good enough for me, and I will personally write to Caroline Glick protesting and admonishing her for injecting irresponsible claims into the debate, which is tricky enough w/out the need to introduce false claims.



        Considering that the best nuke the Iranians could build is a uranium gun design, it's a damned big stretch for you to suggest that they could manufacture a plutonium device that they could use to attack the US with, inviting complete and utter nuclear retailliation. Yes, a nuclear generated EMP is considered a nuclear strike.
        Well, if they do get their uranium devices, I don't see what is going to stop them from going pretty much wherever the hell they want, including going the plutonium path.

        I think the reason for the unlikelihood, is that any country originating such an attack of the US or Europe will simply cease to exists altogether - but I don't see impossible technical problems, it just becomes a matter of time. We can't be even sure that all they have is a uranium gun design, or are we sure? And even if that is so, how could we be sure that they don't obtain other designs further down the road?
        L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
          Thanks. Suspected the article predicting 'mass starvation' might have been overstating the case a wee bit.
          I know for a fact that you have considerable expertise in distorting other's views: the "predicting" (as opposed to potential) bit is an obvious example.


          Furthermore, Teheran's successful upgrade of its ballistic missiles to satellite launchers has given it the capacity to launch nuclear weapons into the atmosphere. This renders Iran capable of launching an electromagnetic pulse attack from sea against just about any country. An EMP attack can destroy a state's electromagnetic grid and thus take a 21st-century economy back to the pre-industrial era. Such an attack on the US, for instance, would cripple the American economy, and render the US government at all levels incapable of restoring order or preventing mass starvation.
          L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            No on two fronts. They don't have the rocket with big enough range nor a bomb with big enough yield. With the kind of bomb they have, they'll be lucky to give static to a local radio station.

            And that's because they blew the station up if they're lucky.

            The article states that the range might well be a non-issue by now:


            Moreover, as a recent study by Israeli missile expert Uzi Rubin shows, Iran already has several delivery options for its burgeoning nuclear arsenal. In a report published by The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Rubin, who has been awarded the Israel Defense Prize and oversaw the development of Israel's Arrow missile defense system, concludes that Iran today has the capacity to develop solid-fuel-based intermediate ballistic missiles with a range of 3,600 kilometers. That is, today, Iran has the capacity to attack not only Israel and other states in the Middle East. Since its successful test of its solid-fuel based Sejil missile in May, it has the demonstrated capacity to attack Europe as well.

            I believe the study alluded is this:



            by Dr. Uzi Rubin
            Published August 2009

            Vol. 9, No. 7 25 August 2009



            New Developments in Iran's Missile Capabilities:

            Implications Beyond the Middle East

            Uzi Rubin

            Click here to down the powerpoint presentation that accompanied the briefing.

            * Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at an almost feverish pace with impressive achievements. The Iranians have upgraded their ballistic missiles to become satellite launchers. To orbit a satellite is a highly sophisticated endeavor. It requires proficiency in stage separation and advanced guidance and control systems to insert the satellite into a stable, desired trajectory. They took the Shahab, extended it a bit, added a new lightweight second stage, and now they have the Safir space launch vehicle. The very capability to build a two-stage satellite launcher, rather than the usual three-stage rockets for space-lift vehicles, is quit remarkable by itself - an impressive engineering achievement.

            * In spite of the Missile Technology Control Regime and in the face of sanctions, Iran has succeeded in acquiring the needed infrastructure and to raise a cadre of proficient scientists and engineers backed by academic research institutes. Iranian missile technology now seems to be more advanced than that of North Korea.

            * The solid-propellant Sejil missile signifies a technological and strategic breakthrough. This missile already poses a threat to a number of European Union countries. Based on its demonstrated achievements in solid propulsion and staging, Iran will face no significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejil into a compact, survivable intermediate-range ballistic missile. A range of 3,600 km. will be sufficient to put most of the EU under threat.

            * Contrary to a recent report by U.S. and Russian scientists published by the EastWest Institute in Washington, D.C., the solid-propellant technology demonstrated by the Sejil gives the Iranian a key for longer-range missiles that could be deployed in a survivable manner from Western Iran. The report claims that it will take the Iranians just six years to develop a nuclear warhead that could be carried by a ballistic missile. By that time the Iranians might already have the appropriate missiles to carry such warheads. The West would do well to start preparing its defenses right now.

            Iran Invests in Nuclear and Missile Technology

            The cumulative weight of Iranian missile development achievements in the last two years puts Iran's programs into a context which might be wider than the Middle East. Up to now, the Iranian programs could fit only a local scenario. However, recent developments may show not necessarily the intention but at least the capability of the Iranians to extend their missile program to potential targets beyond the Middle East.

            The Iranians love to show their hardware in parades. They have two armed forces: the army and the Pasdaran, the Revolutionary Guard. The army holds its parade on April 22 every year, while the Pasdaran holds its parade in December. During the big parade the army held in 2008, they displayed guns and artillery, all of which had been purchased before 1979 during the time of the Shah. They showed a modern tank that they make in small numbers, but most were Soviet T55s, a tank from the 1950s. Obviously they are not investing much money in ground forces or in new armament.

            During the air show, some 220 planes flew above Tehran, but, again, they were F5s made in America and bought during the Shah's time, Mirage F1s, and Iraqi aircraft which were flown to Iran during the Gulf War. There were F4 Phantoms, F14 Tomcats, and MIG 21s. The most modern fighter aircraft they flew was a MIG 29 from 1992.

            So we see that the money is not being invested in the ground forces or in the air force. Where is the money going? It goes into nuclear technologies and missiles. They can make all the excuses in the world that everything is for peaceful purposes, but the fact is that Iran's biggest budgets are going to nuclear technology and missile technology.



            Iran's Engineers Become More Advanced than North Koreans

            In 1988 the Iranians had only Scud B and Scud C missiles. Ten years later they had their first operational Shahab III. The Iranians bought the Shahab, which has a range of 1,300 km., from North Korea, including the production line. We now see the Iranians building underground silos for the Shahab, to make it more survivable.

            The Iranians are also now capable of taking an unguided rocket like the Zalzal - that Hizbullah also has - and turning it into a guided rocket with a range of 200 kilometers. This is an original Iranian project; we don't see it anywhere else.

            They have also upgraded their ballistic missiles to become satellite launchers. To orbit a satellite is a very complicated project. There are missile stages, and a careful guidance and control system to insert the satellite into a stable, desired trajectory. They took the Shahab, extended it a bit, added more propellant, and now they have the Safir space launch vehicle. They launched it twice and the second time it was successful; for a while they had a test satellite in orbit. They built a two-stage satellite launcher with a very elegant upper stage, incomparable to anything we know - an impressive engineering achievement.

            Up to now, North Korea has been the fountainhead of technology to Iran. In the 1990s and the early 2000s we saw the North Korean No-dong missile appearing in Iran, as well as the Shahab II and Shahab III, which in North Korea are called the Wassong V and Wassong VI. The Scud is a North Korean invention which was also exported to Iran. But looking at April's North Korean satellite launch attempt, they used a satellite launcher that looks nothing like what we see in Iran. It was completely different, much bigger and heavier, and with three stages.

            This means that the connection between Iranian and North Korean technology is not that tight anymore, and the pupils are now the teachers. The Iranians have reached a level of proficiency which has disconnected them from North Korea and in some cases they are more advanced than the North Koreans. The Iranians are now going to deploy a missile which is nothing like what the North Koreans have, so a connection may now be the other way around. Start watching Iran not as a market for North Korean merchandise but as an exporter of Iranian missile technologies.



            Iranian Breakthrough: A Solid Fuel Missile

            On May 19, 2009, the EastWest Institute issued a report entitled Iran's Nuclear and Missile Potential: A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and Russian Technical Experts, claiming that "There is no reliable information at the present on the state of Iran's efforts to develop solid propellant rocket motors." The next day, on May 20, the Iranians successfully fired a solid fuel Sejil rocket. Solid propellant leaves a trail of particles behind, while liquid propellant has transparent flames that don't leave any trail, so video reports of the launch are quite revealing.

            What is also impressive here is the pace of development. In 2005 we heard for the first time about the coming of the Sejil. The first flight occurred thirty months after the end of development of the solid propellant motors. Iran's space program is even more impressive.

            They have the engineers to understand what they are doing. They have the system engineers to engineer fixes and they have the program managers to run the whole program. They have demonstrated the ability to manufacture a 14-ton solid propellant rocket motor, and they have the infrastructure they need. To build such a rocket you need big, expensive installations. They are not available for sale, they are controlled by the Missile Technology Control Regime, but Iran has managed to acquire them. All of this infrastructure is in Iran. Another point on the proficiency of their engineers: I received a list of Iranian technical publications from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, all of them dealing with big solid propellant rocket motors.

            The Iranians conducted six major tests of multi-stage missiles in eighteen months by two different teams from two different test ranges with all the instrumentation and flight control guidance system telemetry. When there is a challenge, they overcome the challenge.



            Europe Coming into Iranian Missile Range

            The Iranian defense minister has spoken of two missiles: the Kadr I that goes 2,000 km. and the Sejil that goes more than 2,000 km. Why is 2,000 km. significant? Less than 2,000 km. does not threaten Europe. Beyond that you are starting to threaten Europe.

            Two weeks after the EastWest Institute report came out, Ted Postol of MIT, one of its authors, published an addendum to the report. Based on data he presented, our calculations show that the Sejil has an actual range of about 2,500 km. Such a range could reach Warsaw and, indeed, six European Union countries: Poland, Slovakia, Rumania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Greece. The Tabriz launch area in Iran is as big as Azerbeijan, bigger than Israel and half of Jordan. It's about 50,000 sq. km., full of mountains, valleys, and canyons. You can hide thousands of ballistic missiles there with a very high probability of survival. So the capability to make a survivable missile that can threaten Europe now exists in Iran.

            Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile programs and a space program at a feverish rate. No one else, except the Chinese perhaps, is working at such a speed. In spite of all the sanctions, the Iranians have managed to acquire all the needed infrastructure to make advanced missiles and develop a technology cadre. They are building up technological universities. They have been in the business for twenty years.

            The solid propellant Sejil is the watershed breakthrough. The Iranians have the technology right now to produce an intermediate range ballistic missile that can threaten Europe. Whether they do it or not involves the question of intention, but they are capable of doing it. The EastWest Institute report estimates that it will take Iran about six years to fit a nuclear warhead on a missile. If this is true, then the time to start missile defense in Europe is now. The fact that the Iranians are building that capability is something that should be brought to public view.

            The distance from Iran to Israel remains the same no matter what missiles the Iranians develop. From an Israeli anti-missile defense perspective, the threat remains more or less the same, whether it's a Shahab III or a Sejil. But while the implications of Iran's continued missile development are not so great from an Israeli point of view, they may be quite significant for those who live beyond the Middle East.

            * * *

            Uzi Rubin has been involved in Israeli military research, development, and engineering programs for almost forty years. Between 1991 and 1999 he served as head of Israel's Missile Defense Organization, and in that capacity he oversaw the development of Israel's Arrow anti-missile defense system. He was awarded the Israel Defense Prize in 1996. This Jerusalem Issue Brief is based on his presentation to the Institute for Contemporary Affairs in Jerusalem on August 6, 2009.


            Jerusalem Issue Briefs-New Developments in Iran's Missile Capabilities: Implications Beyond the Middle East
            L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux

            Comment


            • #21
              At best, these are IRBMs with sufficent range to reach Europe, not the US.

              Comment


              • #22
                Which doesn't disprove the possibility that Europe could conceivably be attacked in such a manner.


                About the US, what if they install it on a boat?
                L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                  This claim is either true or false.
                  What you're missing is that those materials are under IAEA watch. Until Iran kick IAEA inspectors out of Iran, those materials are not going to be in nukes. And the day they kick out the Inspectors, we have at the earliest 90 days before they can have a nuke, more like 6 months. Kicking out inspectors is the sign of war, not before.

                  Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                  I'm not prepared to ponder the question, but you are. I gather that you disagree with such assessment. If you are sure about it, that's good enough for me, and I will personally write to Caroline Glick protesting and admonishing her for injecting irresponsible claims into the debate, which is tricky enough w/out the need to introduce false claims.
                  A simple read of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists would have given you all the info to counter her.

                  Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                  Well, if they do get their uranium devices, I don't see what is going to stop them from going pretty much wherever the hell they want, including going the plutonium path.
                  There is a hell of a difference between a simple gun design and an implosion device. The North Koreans tried twice (if you believe the 2nd test to be real) and both were duds. The Indians are not satisfied with their one test.

                  You're stretching their technical and scientific expertise to the hilt.

                  Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                  We can't be even sure that all they have is a uranium gun design, or are we sure?
                  AQ Khan sold the same package he sold the Libyans which included a CICH-4 warhead blueprint.

                  Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                  And even if that is so, how could we be sure that they don't obtain other designs further down the road?
                  They might have ... from the North Koreans. I'll let you ponder that for a second.
                  Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 06 Sep 09,, 16:15.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                    Which doesn't disprove the possibility that Europe could conceivably be attacked in such a manner.
                    A uranium gun design is insufficent for an EMP attack to disable anything outside its blast range.

                    Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                    About the US, what if they install it on a boat?
                    Good luck. The rocket would more likely head anywhere but the US. There's a reason why SLBM are tossed into the air before their rocket engines ignite.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                      Now you seem convinced the recommendations have been implemented in full in the US, or Europe for that matter, but it is legitimate to wonder just how you arrived at such knowledge.
                      Ice Storm 98 and Blackout 2003.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Castellano View Post
                        Yeah, that's what I mean. But that's not what you said, you said, and I cite quite literally:



                        Which I believe refers to electrical engineers thinking after the fact.

                        Now you seem convinced the recommendations have been implemented in full in the US, or Europe for that matter, but it is legitimate to wonder just how you arrived at such knowledge.
                        LOL.And your own article meant to confirm that such a doomsday scenario would occur demonstrated that not only had engineers considered such a scenario but that measures had been recommended for the best way to avoid it.
                        For your scenario to occur it would require concerted non-action on the part of every electrical engineer in the country, in other words sheer fantasy.
                        In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

                        Leibniz

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Chunder View Post
                          Why am I not surprised Castellano that your posting more Nuke propoganda hysteria...when the IAEA has flatly rejected this sort of path towards the Iranian Nuclear programme?

                          Like any sane person would truly regard an article by some rag in Israel as highly reputable anyway given the Israeli Forign Ministries shrieking propensity for over-reactionary alarmist hyperbole in an all too familiar tactic of juxtapositional missapropriated rhetoric that isn't supported by anyone but itself and lunatics like Huckabee.

                          *switches off*
                          And another appeaser checks in.

                          Is that you over Chamberlain's right shoulder, the guy without the hat? Seems like you, anyway.
                          Attached Files

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Chunder View Post
                            Since when does one action make another right, or justify another?
                            Since governments have been charged with protecting their citizens, that's when. Forever, in other words.

                            Wake up man.
                            He seems awake to ME. YOU, on the other hand, slumber so sweetly, while the world slips closer to a completely preventable disaster.

                            I hate to break it to you but Osirak was a hypothesised intelligence threat, no matter how you look at it, at a time that the US was turning a blind eye and saw it as no consiquence. A little matter on inconsequential glory that would have been smaked like fly had it gone further.
                            HOW MUCH further? Just exactly WHEN would YOU have struck, if ever? The very next day, when the first radioactive material was delivered to the site? Poor choice, I'd say.

                            Both of which have nothing do do with statements from the IAEA about nation states trying to force the agency into making statements that can easily be misinterpretated for a political outcome - as outrightly stated by the outgoing IAEA head.
                            And that head is even more feckless that you are, and has been not only wrong before, but has actively sought to cover up his failures and miscalculations, even going so far as to lie for the very regimes he's charged with watching. He is COMPLICIT in their crimes. Hardly credible; hardly somebody a threatened state should place their trust in.

                            If you want to go down this path you can cop the flak for it. I have no problem with your views have them, but if you want to air them and not be critisized because the fabric is doped, then your pissing into the proverbial.
                            Well, isn't THAT a generous spirit, then? You'll allow him his point-of-view, Your Grace? How very typical: A view is expressed that doesn't accord with your warped notion of reality, and it's automatically rendered unfit foir discussion.

                            Bulletin for you: we're going to have this discussion whether you grant your meaningless approval or not, and if you don't care for it, piss off.

                            *Sigh* - I have zero doubt whatsoever, that you can't accept an independant, credible non-politisized assessment by the worlds peak nuclear body because arma-weed said 'Israel should be wiped off the map'... thus you continually foist upon others whatever official explanation the Israeli Foreign Ministry has to give as verbatim - however tiring and incredibly missappropriated and innacurate that might be.
                            Be as blind as he rest of the see-no-evil' crowd, but he fact is this: the Islamic Republic of Iraq HAS OFFICIALLY STATED multiple times that they are committed to the detruction of Israel. Their president did, in FACT, state that Israel should be wiped off the map. This is not in doubt by rational people.

                            Like Isael is in any position whatsoever to do something off it's own bat.
                            We may have occasion to find out about that.

                            the IAEA has the means to predict what could be happening, Israel does not, bar some imagined dream of some crybaby. Preach to the converted - I say if Israel likes to try and force its opinion down others throats, then it deserves to get it's ass kicked, because it obviously had no respect for reputable organisations. It wouldn't be like Israel is any crystal clear ball of unreproachable question...
                            Israel has a much better sense of its national interests than some fantasist that hates them enough to wish that they get their asses kicked...which will mean their utter destruction, the only time it ever happens. So that places you in the conemptible company of the anti-semites that long for a second - and final - Holocaust.

                            You're loathsome.


                            Are you calling the rest of the world delusional?
                            Are you calling the rest of the world rational? Hell, chief, YOU aren't even rational. The non-Anglo world is for the most part a sad failure of varying degrees of statist inhumaity. YES, the rest of the world is delusional.

                            Get real.
                            You wouldn't know reality if you smoked a bale of it.

                            You have the Secretary of State a woman at that, publically, explicitly, on the record saying that the US will NEVER allow that to happen. Hillary Clinton is about as Pro-Israeli as you can get.
                            Now, THAT is TRULY delusional. I think the historical record is something you should acquaint yourself with, because you are talking out your ass.

                            Do you expect the rest of the sane world to continually put up with the propogandist BS? However much you absolutely love trying to outlast any rebuttle for presumed posterity, this one is a fail path. Israel's previous assertions about Irans ability to produce a Nuke have not materialised. According to the IAEA they don' show any signes of materialising, until 2012 at the earliest, and that was their assement if they stareted working in May-July 2008 - Your closest ally and their intelligence assessment has openly rebuffed Israeli intelligence - and it would not be the first tiem said intelligence on either side has got it wrong.
                            Again, we're going to see soon enough who's right.

                            It's not you.

                            If only the shrieking propensity was a reality. The chance of them being able to produce them and deploy them is so obviously national non gratis, that this line of journalistic standard isn't worth the paper it's written on and the bandwidth its wasting - to put it mildly. Frankly, with the U.S issuing statements about continued settlement developments , Israels chance of getting any real sympathy from the international community is precisely zero. It's tactics are old. Obviously it's coveted Nuke ambiguity does not mean much!
                            You seem like the modern-day Wilfred Burchett. VERY strident; VERY wrong.

                            You can continue to debate the point, all you wish -its so far off centre court that it's in the lunacy category. Heck, your reduced to besmirching the IAEA...
                            Heck, it's besmirched itself. It's record is one of unbroken failure, and the lefties just LOVE a good ineffective international body of hand-wringers to place all their hopes in. You certainly have. Very foolish, but I bet that's nothing new to you.

                            Like another person said, start your "Israeli re-education thread" - that way the rest of us can read interesting stuff that isn't generated by some nutter in some rag in a country that can't make meaningfull steps towards a peace process on the basis of "The land of the bible belongs to the people of the bible".... and have to put up with the onerous task of hypothesised fallacy - then not be able to take the critisism, which btw, is completely justified in its original post.
                            Telling people what they're to do again; quite the petty-commissar, aren't you?

                            Nobody believes the IFM line except for extremests - boohoo, preach to the converted! Iran won't be nuclear armed, it's been assured by the US secretary of state, a democrat, a woman, a blonde one at that. If Israel doesn't get the message clear enough - then it's too damned dumb to take notice of in the first place! ALL this talk about war (read killing people) and not expecting to cop it in the neck because of pure extreme hypothesis is beyond me.
                            There is MUCH that is beyond you. Like this: we were assured that a signed piece of paper would assure peace in our time. And you, with much less on the ball than even that doddering old fool, assures us that the utterly-marginalized and ineffectual SecState is going to assure that Iran will never be nuclear. See why we think you're kinda stupid? Have you any idea why you're being laughed at?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              When people start referring to another report, it always help to goto the source material, specifically the IAEA report.

                              http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/file_...August2009.pdf

                              Iran DOES NOT have enough HEU for two nukes this year. What she does have enough Lowly Enriched Uranium to produce Highly Enriched Uranium, enough for two bombs by the end of this year. In other words, she just got enough LEU to start making HEU which requires 5 things.

                              1) The current cascades got to stop making LEU, drained, cleaned, and start making HEU.

                              2) A continous operation requiring no crash of the system.

                              3) Every gram of LEU must not be wasted.

                              4) No contamination possible or they have to start from scratch.

                              5) Grab a hold of the LEU away from IAEA watch, lock, and key.

                              In other words, the 2012-2013 timeline still holds true. Looks like Israel also got its share of reporters trying to be nuclear physicists and policy makers at the same time.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                The ISIS Analysis phrases it in similar terms to the article, but with a crucial difference in the last sentence :

                                Nuclear Weapon Breakout Calculations


                                As ISIS has noted in previous reports, nuclear weapons “breakout capability” is a scenario that involves enriching LEU up to weapon-grade uranium. This could be accomplished within 3-6 months at either the Natanz facility or in a clandestine gas centrifuge facility. It provides a measure of Iran’s growing nuclear weapons capabilities. Whether Iran intends to pursue this approach is unknown.



                                Last February, Iran accumulated enough LEU to be able to enrich enough weapon-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon.



                                At Iran’s current rate of 2.77 kilograms of LEU hexafluoride per day, Iran would accumulate in total enough LEU to use as feed for the production of sufficient weapon-grade uranium for two nuclear weapons by the end of February 2010.
                                http://www.isisnucleariran.org/asset...AEA_Report.pdf

                                I found also very interesting your remark about the necessary steps Iran would have to take to control over the materials - basically, there is at least one more Rubicon for the Iranian regime before the dice is in the air.
                                L'essentiel est invisible pour les yeux

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