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  • Iran Sanctions?

    Here is an opinion piece by John Bolton. Click to read more.

    Sanctions Won't Work Against Iran
    1 Sept [WSJ] The mullahs are addressing their vulnerability to a gasoline shortage.

    By John Bolton Last week, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed elBaradei attempted to whitewash Iran's nuclear weapons program by issuing a report ignoring substantial information about weaponization activities and downplaying continued noncooperation.

    Even the Obama administration apparently now understands that resuming the long-stalled "Permanent-Five plus-one" negotiations (the U.N. Security Council's permanent members plus Germany) with Iran is highly unlikely to halt Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

    Accordingly, President Obama is readying two alternatives. One is to characterize "freezing" Iran's nuclear program at existing levels as a "success." However, this less than complete termination of Iran's nuclear program would run contrary to years of determined clandestine efforts. Such a freeze is utterly unverifiable and amounts to surrender. This will result in a nuclear-armed Iran.

    The other Obama administration ploy is "strong sanctions" imposed by the United States and other countries. This will also be a "success" only in the sense that it will allow the administration to claim a win. It won't actually prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

    One idea for robust sanctions now before Congress is to prohibit exports of refined petroleum products—such as gasoline—to Iran. Today, Iran imports 40% of its daily refined petroleum consumption. Other proposals include international financial and insurance-related sanctions.

    These ideas are well-intentioned and worth pursuing. If imposed, they will create shortages that will likely increase internal dissatisfaction with Iran's regime, thereby hopefully contributing to its ultimate demise. But no one should believe that tighter sanctions will, in the foreseeable future, have any impact on Iran's nuclear weapons program.

    Six years ago more stringent measures against Iran might have worked, but today they are an idea whose time has come and gone. Their inadequacy stems from several causes. ....
    Last edited by Merlin; 01 Sep 09,, 01:47.

  • #2
    Germany and France take sanctions 'very seriously'.

    Germany, France reinforce Iran sanctions threat
    7 hrs ago [AP] BERLIN — Germany and France have reinforced a call for Iran to respond to concerns about its nuclear program in September or face tougher sanctions.

    French President Nicolas Sarkozy says "initiatives must be taken during the month of September which take account of Iran's will or otherwise to cooperate." He says that, if it does not, "Germany and France will be united in calling for a strengthening of sanctions."

    He says international agreement on further sanctions is important.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday after meeting Sarkozy: "Iran should know that we mean this very seriously."

    The German government says officials from six countries trying to address concerns about Iran's nuclear program will meet Wednesday in Germany......

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    • #3
      Here is some news report from Press TV of Tehran.

      Report: Iran has 'updated nuclear package'; ready to hold talks
      30 min ago TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran has "prepared an updated nuclear package" and is ready to hold talks with world powers, the country's state-run Press TV reported Tuesday.

      Iran will offer the new package to the five veto-wielding members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany, Press TV reported.

      The six countries will meet Wednesday in Frankfurt, Germany to discuss Iran's nuclear program, the network said.

      The network did not say what the new package entailed. ....

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      • #4
        They say this is not to make decisions, just a joint 'stocking' of the five UNSC permanent members plus Germany.

        World powers discuss Iran as sanctions pressure grows
        1 hr ago [AFP] BERLIN — Senior diplomats from six world powers were due to discuss in Germany on Wednesday Iran's disputed nuclear programme, amid growing pressure for harsher sanctions against the Islamic republic.

        Political directors from the UN Security Council's five permanent members -- the United States, China, Russia, Britain and France -- plus Germany, were due to meet near Frankfurt, a German foreign ministry spokesman said.

        The P5+1 gathering comes after a UN atomic agency report released last week said that Iran has slowed production of enriched uranium and agreed to tighter monitoring of its enrichment plant. ....

        Diplomatic sources played down the prospects of any concrete results from the get-together, saying the aim was a joint "stocktaking" following the disputed June re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the IAEA report.

        Enriched uranium can be used to make nuclear fuel, but can also become the fissile material for an atomic bomb. Iran insists its nuclear work is peaceful but Western countries suspect that Tehran wants atomic weapons. ....
        Last edited by Merlin; 02 Sep 09,, 11:41.

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        • #5
          This is a quote of what John Bolton wrote that was published on 1 Sept by WSJ. See post #1 above.

          One idea for robust sanctions now before Congress is to prohibit exports of refined petroleum products—such as gasoline—to Iran. Today, Iran imports 40% of its daily refined petroleum consumption.
          Iran is clearly aware of their dependency on imported gasoline (or petrol). This below is what A-jad just did.

          Venezuela to sell Iran 20,000 barrels of petrol per day
          15 hrs ago [AFP] TEHRAN — Venezuela is to supply fuel-starved Iran with 20,000 barrels of petrol a day, President Hugo Chavez said on Sunday at the end of a two-day visit to the Islamic republic during which deals were also inked on medicine and commerce.

          "Venezuela has agreed to export 20,000 barrels of petrol daily to Iran from October in a deal worth 800 million dollars," Chavez told reporters in the northeastern city of Mashhad, local media reported.

          He gave no indication of the duration of the agreement.

          "This amount will be deposited in a fund established in Iran and will be used to finance purchase of machinery and technology from Iran," Chavez added.

          "It was also agreed that both sides will within the next 30 days inject 100 million dollars in the joint Iran-Venezuela bank," he said.

          Chavez flew earlier Sunday from Tehran to Mashhad, Iran's holiest city and the resting place of Shiite Islam's eighth imam, Imam Reza, in the company of his host President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

          Because of a lack of domestic refining capacity, oil-rich Iran is dependent on petrol imports to meet about 40 percent of domestic consumption.

          US lawmakers have been pushing President Barack Obama to squeeze Iran by targeting its heavy reliance on petrol imports and other refined oil products.

          Iran gets most of its petrol imports from the Swiss firm Vitol, the Swiss/Dutch firm Trafigura, France's Total, the Swiss firm Glencore and British Petroleum, as well as the Indian firm Reliance. ....

          Chavez is a regular visitor to Iran and a key ally of Ahmadinejad ....

          Before flying to Mashhad, Chavez met with Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei .....
          Last edited by Merlin; 07 Sep 09,, 08:51.

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          • #6
            According to this, the 5+1 powers have agreed to diplomatically resolve Iran's nuclear issue.

            Further sanctions not helpful to Iranian nuclear issue: FM
            BEIJING, Sept. 8 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that imposing sanctions and pressure on Iran would neither help to resolve its nuclear issue nor be conducive to the resumption of the international talks on the issue.

            Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Jiang Yu made the remarks in response to a question on China's position on imposing further sanctions on Iran.

            U.S. President Barack Obama has set a late September deadline for Tehran to initiate multilateral talks over its disputed nuclear issue, or face further sanctions.

            Jiang said China hoped various sides would take advantage of the current favorable chances and beef up diplomatic efforts to resume the international talks on the issue as soon as possible.

            Vice foreign ministers from China, the United States, Russia, Britain and France, plus Germany met in Frankfurt on the Iranian nuclear issue last week.

            According to Jiang, all the six parties in the meeting agreed to resolve the issue through diplomatic efforts
            .

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Merlin View Post
              This is a quote of what John Bolton wrote that was published on 1 Sept by WSJ. See post #1 above.



              Iran is clearly aware of their dependency on imported gasoline (or petrol). This below is what A-jad just did.

              Venezuela to sell Iran 20,000 barrels of petrol per day
              Is Venezuela not dependent on US for its refined oil? This looks like a self-solving problem to me if the sanctions are given a go ahead.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Zinja View Post
                Is Venezuela not dependent on US for its refined oil?
                Do you mean they import gasoline from the US and re-export some to Iran when necessary?

                Venezuela has refineries. But I don't know if it has spare capacity to export.
                Last edited by Merlin; 13 Sep 09,, 03:29.

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                • #9
                  Pakistan shares a common border with Iran. Both have large Shi'ite populations. Both are friendly nations until the US comes along.

                  Why Pakistan Won't Help on Iran
                  14 Sept [Time] Iran's neighbors could play a decisive role in determining whether any sanctions aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions are effective — and one Iran neighbor from whom the U.S. should expect little support on the issue is Pakistan.

                  Ostensibly Washington's key ally in the troubled region, Pakistan also maintains a longtime (if sometimes fraught) friendship with Tehran. And as President Asif Ali Zardari's government moves to strengthen ties with neighbor in a bid to enhance Pakistan's economic prospects, Islamabad is keen to sit out the nuclear dispute. While Pakistan insists that it is not actively encouraging Iran to join it in the elite club of nuclear weapons states, officials in Islamabad appear decidedly untroubled by developments across its southwestern border.

                  "The government of Pakistan, and the average Pakistani citizen, looks at Iran as a friendly nation," Pakistan's Deputy Foreign Minister Malik Amad Khan told TIME in an interview. After Iran, Pakistan has the second-largest Shi'ite Muslim population, its 33 million Shi'ites constituting nearly double the number in Iraq. ....

                  Pakistan's role in Iran's nuclear development has been more than passive spectator, however — Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, admitted five years ago that he had passed on nuclear secrets to Tehran and Libya. .....

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                  • #10
                    I would just assume Israel enforce "sanctions" against Iran. A true shame for the Iranian people but no better a bunch of idiots in that regime for it too happen to. See you on fireworks day.:));)
                    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

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                    • #11
                      China is against it. Iran sanctions proposal won't go through the UN SC.

                      China opposes Iran nuclear sanctions
                      1 hr ago [AFP] BEIJING — China on Thursday reiterated its opposition to sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme, as Tehran came under mounting pressure from world leaders at the United Nations to stop uranium enrichment.

                      "We always believe that sanctions and pressure are not the way out," foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told reporters. ....

                      Iran's suspect nuclear ambitions were atop the agenda at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, and even Russia signaled it could back sanctions if Tehran failed to make concessions in talks with six major powers next week.

                      But Jiang called for renewed diplomacy on the issue. ....

                      The West suspects Iran is trying to acquire a nuclear weapons capability under the cover of a civilian atomic programme.

                      But Tehran denies the charge and maintains that it will instead discuss proposals to promote global nuclear disarmament at next week's meeting in Geneva.

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                      • #12
                        Prime Minister Gordon Brown will join with US President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy in accusing Iran of concealing a covert nuclear plant.
                        G20 confronts Iran on nuclear plant .
                        UK to accuse Iran of covert nuclear operation

                        White House sources said that Mr Obama is due to go public with the charge, while Downing Street confirmed that Mr Brown will be involved in the announcement.

                        It comes just hours after Tehran revealed the existence of a second uranium enrichment plant, which it insisted was intended for civil energy-generating purposes.

                        Iranian officials said details of the plant were disclosed to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, in a letter on Monday.

                        There was speculation that the announcement was designed to pre-empt the joint statement by the US, British and French leaders at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

                        The statement is expected to increase pressure on Tehran ahead of international talks in Istanbul on October 1 at which the E3+3 group of Britain, France, Germany, the US, Russia and China will confront Iran over its disputed nuclear programme.

                        Iran, which is subject to United Nations Security Council sanctions because it refuses to halt uranium enrichment, has previously admitted to only one facility. It says that its activities are intended for peaceful electricity generation, but the same enrichment processes can produce both nuclear fuel and material for warheads.

                        Mr Obama is expected to demand immediate inspection of the secret site by IAEA experts.

                        Downing Street said only: "There is going to be an announcement. The Prime Minister will be involved and the subject will be Iran."

                        Asked earlier about Iran's admission that it had a second enrichment facility, Mr Brown's spokeswoman said: "The announcement just serves to compound the concerns that were expressed yesterday in New York by the E3+3. It reiterates the need for Iran to prove to the international community that it is prepared to take action and that we will need to see serious developments leading up to the October 1 meeting."

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Merlin View Post
                          China is against it. Iran sanctions proposal won't go through the UN SC.
                          I wonder what China wants in exchange for their vote.

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                          • #14
                            Perhaps Xinhui can provide some insight on what China wants out of this, if any.

                            This is what China says officially:
                            ''We believe that sanctions and exerting pressure are not the way to solve problems and are not conducive for the current diplomatic efforts on the Iran nuclear issue,'' said Jiang Yu, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman.

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                            • #15
                              Well whats China's solution I wonder?


                              Its not as if diplomacy is actually working. I dont think China cares if Iran gets a bomb or not.

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