Greetings, and welcome to the World Affairs Board!
The World Affairs Board is the premier forum for the discussion of the pressing geopolitical issues of our time. Topics include military and defense developments, international terrorism, insurgency & COIN doctrine, international security and policing, weapons proliferation, and military technological development.
Our membership includes many from military, defense, academic, and government backgrounds with expert knowledge on a wide range of topics. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so why not register a World Affairs Board account and join our community today?
I think at this point the most effective way of making a clear statement to Iran is a Syrian style approach. Surgically strike just the covet facility ONLY and then send in the IAEA to investigate later, whilst at the same time you pin down Iran on Oct 1 for some real answers.
Whether we like it or not, at this rate Iran is getting its bomb. One report says there are about 3000 more effecient centrifuges in the cover location. There is already about a tonne of low enriched uranium in the hands of Iran, it doesn't require a lot to imagine how much time they will need to enrich what they already have with more efficient centrifuges to make one bomb. Frankly, deplomacy here comes a little too late.
Tell me what we should do now?Sanctions can not prevent Iran too。
Strike just those facilities that have been covetly built. Since they did not declared to the IAEA they are effectively illegal. These are the ones which probably possess the greatest danger because noone knows what they capable of. One source says they have improved and more effecient centrifuges that the Nataz ones. Chances are probably by now Iran is up to secret process location number 3. Strike this facility first and then continue negotiations with the other already known ones. Why do you think Iran is asking for enriched nuclear fuel from the USA for the so called medical research reactor which has not been operational for a while now since the USA imposed sanctions on them? This is just to find an excuse to activate their higher enriching facilities, probably this now revealed facility.
Strike just those facilities that have been covetly built. Since they did not declared to the IAEA they are effectively illegal. These are the ones which probably possess the greatest danger because noone knows what they capable of. One source says they have improved and more effecient centrifuges that the Nataz ones.
Hey,at first,you don't have evidence to prove Iran is making nukes now。It's
Irresponsible that attack a Sovereign just becuse of Some speculate。If you decide to strike Iran ,how about North Korea?Continue to negotiate?If you guys do it,what do Iran will think about it?
Why do you think Iran is asking for enriched nuclear fuel from the USA for the so called medical research reactor which has not been operational for a while now since the USA imposed sanctions on them?
I don't think Iran have no appetence to own nukes。I just think sanction isn't a good way。
Hey,at first,you don't have evidence to prove Iran is making nukes now。It's
Irresponsible that attack a Sovereign just becuse of Some speculate。If you decide to strike Iran ,how about North Korea?Continue to negotiate?If you guys do it,what do Iran will think about it?
I regard Iran wanting to acquire nuclear weapons not as speculation, but as common sense. Of course they want nukes. Of course it will improve their strategic position immensely. Of course it's good for them to get nukes. However, it will be vastly damaging to many other nations' security interests, including those of the United States.
North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan are the opening dominoes for a nuclear armament cascade. If you are Iran, would you be content to sit on your nukes, or would you start shopping them around the world to like minded regimes? Who is next then? Venezuela? Syria? Sudan? Which of our erstwhile allies will want nukes in response? Turkey? Saudi Arabia?
Where does it go from here??? When you have an entire world armed with nuclear weapons, how long before our lottery number comes up and somebody punches the button for Armageddon?
We can strike Iran because it is in the fundamental security interests of we and our allies. We will not strike NK or Pakistan because it is not in our security interest to do so. When it comes to international relations between nations that do not have significant free trade relationships, the only law that matters is the law of the jungle. One would be naive to think otherwise.
However, it will be vastly damaging to many other nations' security interests, including those of the United States.
When US creat nukes,does it damage other nations' security interests?
If you are Iran, would you be content to sit on your nukes, or would you start shopping them around the world to like minded regimes? Who is next then? Venezuela? Syria? Sudan? Which of our erstwhile allies will want nukes? Turkey? Saudi Arabia?
I think you're too Pessimistic。If there isn't the sanction and Iran can Free trade,the oil and gas can bring them rich,I don't think they need sell nukes to make money。
When it comes to international relations between nations that do not have significant free trade relationships, the only law that matters, is the law of the jungle.
Can you tell me why we establish UN?Just for the law of the jungle?
We can strike Iran because it is in the fundamental security interests of we and our allies.
When US creates nukes,does it damage other nations' security interests?
It was beneficial for many and damaging to others. I'm sure those whose interests have been damaged would have stopped us if they could. Today, we could stop Iran and our national security interests make it imperative that we do.
I think you're too Pessimistic。If there isn't the sanction and Iran can Free trade,the oil and gas can bring them rich,I don't think they need sell nukes to make money。
The Nukes are not to make them money but to induce US strategic paralysis and decline.
The Iranians always had the prospect of enriching themselves. It is the regime that prevents successful economic development. If the regime were to embark on a path that leads to de-nuclearization and opening of trade, then their own incompetence and corruption would become even more central issues in Iranian politics. Thus, even from domestic political standpoints, it is in the regime's favor to develop the weapons, thereby uniting their supporters behind a nationalist cause, have the sanctions continue, thereby providing a scapegoat for economic stagnation, and engage in "negotiations", thereby delaying further effective international action.
If we engage them in negotiations, we are playing into their hand. If we allow them to develop nukes and take away the sanctions, the regime will be able to claim a great victory and use its new found mojo to establish hegemony in the Persian Gulf. If we increase the sanctions, with the limited (IE none) help we will receive from the Russians, we are unlikely to damage the Iranian economy more deeply than it already has been damaged. If Iran then holds out for the one to three years it will take for them to obtain nuclear weapons, the regime can claim victory, and the sanctions will become futile, and eventually dissolve.
Can you tell me why we establish UN?Just for the law of the jungle?
To provide a framework for cooperation on matters of common interest for all nations, and security cooperation on matters of consensus between the permanent members of the Security Council.
Where there is no cooperation or consensus, the law of the jungle is at play.
Hey,at first,you don't have evidence to prove Iran is making nukes now。It's
Irresponsible that attack a Sovereign just becuse of Some speculate。If you decide to strike Iran ,how about North Korea?Continue to negotiate?If you guys do it,what do Iran will think about it?
Breaching international protol on declaration of nuclear facilities is good enough reason and thats good evidence. As far as international law is concerned this facility is illegal and therefor a justifiable target. This is not spculation it is a fact.
NK is exactly the case in point why this should be nipped now. NK was left too late and now you can't reverse the clock. If the negotiations ONLy route is pursued against Iran we sure to get exactly the very same result that we got with NK.
It is the regime that prevents successful economic development.
The sanction have same effect。
If the regime were to embark on a path that leads to de-nuclearization and opening of trade, then their own incompetence and corruption would become even more central issues in Iranian politics.
It's just your guess。
If we allow them to develop nukes and take away the sanctions, the regime will be able to claim a great victory and use its new found mojo to establish hegemony in the Persian Gulf.
If they give up,you guys will claim a great victory too。
If Iran then holds out for the one to three years it will take for them to obtain nuclear weapons, the regime can claim victory, and the sanctions will become futile, and eventually dissolve.
Comment