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Which country defaults first in 2010? why?, and outcomes.

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  • Which country defaults first in 2010? why?, and outcomes.

    Place your bets....

    Baltics (I decided to include all three Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania in 1 category for ease of use)
    [the only thing keeping them afloat is IMF and Euro loans but totally unsustainable]

    Ukraine
    [the only thing keeping them afloat is IMF and Euro loans but totally unsustainable]

    Russia
    [possible but unlikely]

    Spain
    [the Florida/California Housing bubble state of European Union]

    Greece
    [are the riots still going on?]

    USA
    [the wild card, yes its possible if we try to continue monetizing debt the markets spike and we have no choice but to print or abrogate that would be default time]

    Balkan Europe (also for ease of use Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia, Albania, Bosnia) [lots of possibilities with Hungary the most likely candidate]

    Turkey
    [also possible but unlikely]

    Latin American [every country from Mexico to Argentina, Argentina looks good , Bolivia too]

    Other [any country not in the above you think has a good shot]

    P.S. Thanks again Parihaika, my first poll :)
    19
    Ukraine
    26.32%
    5
    Russia
    0.00%
    0
    Baltics
    10.53%
    2
    USA
    15.79%
    3
    Spain
    5.26%
    1
    Greece
    21.05%
    4
    Balkans
    5.26%
    1
    Turkey
    0.00%
    0
    Latin American
    5.26%
    1
    Other
    10.53%
    2
    Last edited by cyppok; 15 Aug 09,, 17:15.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  • #2
    I voted Ukraine, for various reasons.

    My time line of reasoning is the following.

    They are on their last tranche of IMF money which they will most likely pay to Gazprom in January for winter gas. That means they will likely run out of money in the first quarter of 2010 so I m thinking somewhere there they default.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by cyppok View Post
      Place your bets....

      Baltics (I decided to include all three Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania in 1 category for ease of use)
      [the only thing keeping them afloat is IMF and Euro loans but totally unsustainable]
      the biggest problem my country is facing currently is exactly the I decided to include all three Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania in 1 category for ease of use part. Estonia is one of the countries giving Latvia loan, Latvia is the (currently) only one aided by IMF (although Lithuania could follow). Est. goverm. sector still has (officially) some reserves squirreled away , AFAIK roughly worth 20% of this years budget.

      Could even be that Est. and Lat. have reached the end of the fall.
      Financial Times: Latvia?s and Estonia?s economies improve :: The Baltic Course | Baltic States news & analytics
      If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today

      Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by BD1 View Post
        the biggest problem my country is facing currently is exactly the I decided to include all three Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania in 1 category for ease of use part. Estonia is one of the countries giving Latvia loan, Latvia is the (currently) only one aided by IMF (although Lithuania could follow). Est. goverm. sector still has (officially) some reserves squirreled away , AFAIK roughly worth 20% of this years budget.

        Could even be that Est. and Lat. have reached the end of the fall.
        Financial Times: Latvia?s and Estonia?s economies improve :: The Baltic Course | Baltic States news & analytics
        I think is self deception to consider that Eastern Europe can get out of the crisis before or without the West.We're completely dependent(and it s..ks).

        p.s I voted Ukraine for the same reasons as cyppok,although my beloved motherland is a good candidate if the crisis doesn't ease by next summer.
        Those who know don't speak
        He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Mihais View Post
          I think is self deception to consider that Eastern Europe can get out of the crisis before or without the West.We're completely dependent(and it s..ks).

          p.s I voted Ukraine for the same reasons as cyppok,although my beloved motherland is a good candidate if the crisis doesn't ease by next summer.
          What i meant to write (and obviously got lost) is that we suffer from being put in one big basket in the eyes of the outsider. I have not commented on our (slim) chances of getting out on our own power.
          If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today

          Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by BD1 View Post
            What i meant to write (and obviously got lost) is that we suffer from being put in one big basket in the eyes of the outsider. I have not commented on our (slim) chances of getting out on our own power.
            The Baltic States is a cliche,just like former Yugoslav,former USSR nation of X, Balkan nation of Romania(although there only Carpathians in sight) etc...
            There is a joke(sort off) around :Crisis.What crisis?We're always in crisis.
            Those who know don't speak
            He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by BD1 View Post
              What i meant to write (and obviously got lost) is that we suffer from being put in one big basket in the eyes of the outsider. I have not commented on our (slim) chances of getting out on our own power.
              Estonia's Economy Shrinks 16.6% - WSJ.com
              compared to Lithuania your doing better and have a much better position but if it bothers you to be lumped together you could pick other and say Latvia or Lithuania goes and why.

              The problem is that you guys are all dependent on two factors, Euro Loans from Sweden etc, and Imf... Those guys are almost out of money.
              Estonia gets loan from European Investment Bank — EUbusiness.com - business, legal and economic news and information from the European Union
              (TALLINN) - Recession-hit Estonia said Monday that it had secured a 550-million-euro (770-million-dollar) loan from the European Investment Bank.
              (I look at it this way as long as you borrow money to scramble to cushion the fall your in pain/trouble.)
              Originally from Sochi, Russia.

              Comment


              • #8
                Cyppok , you quoted the wrong part of the link - the big loan (550m. Euros) is for financing EU-funded projects from 2009-2013 (EU demands certain percent of self-financing): roads, infrastructure etc. . It´s not used to pay teachers or firefighters salaries, keeping the country going like IMF money does in Latvia.

                Estonia had asked for the loan in March.

                The goal, Seeman said, was to bolster European Union-backed projects in Estonia that often involve raising the quality of infrastructure in new EU member states to help integrate the 27-nation bloc.

                Last week, Estonia signed off on a 50-million-euro loan with Swedish-based Swedbank, a key player in the Baltic state's market.Tallinn said that one of the goals of the deal was to increase the liquid assets of the state, which is trying to tackle a deep economic slump.

                the smaller loan is the worrisome one, not the big one
                If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today

                Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok

                Comment


                • #9
                  I disagree with you. The larger the amount the more problems, the Eu-funded projects are funded by both Estonia and Eu ergo the opportunity for bureaucratic error is doubled (2 entities) furthermore the project will most likely go over budget as all govt projects go since both sides will try to push the project to benefit them more.

                  [I am imagining the refit of a railroad to non-Russian standard guage and thus further detriment to bilateral trade]

                  That money is going to sit in a bank until used up through out the next 4 years.
                  Since your country will be forced to carry the cost of financing I did not misquote...
                  Last edited by cyppok; 16 Aug 09,, 21:14.
                  Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I voted Latin America because of Chavez, I can see him flipping the bird at the Evil West and not paying money owed.
                    I should also clarify more.
                    I think that the energy market is going to do something and oil income will suffer. I base this on information from friends of mine that are involved in the oil industry. They can't be specific, as it's propitiatory information, but they are not looking forward to the next few years.
                    Last edited by ZekeJones; 16 Sep 09,, 04:55.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      since cyppok cannot wank to this, he probaly won´t post it, so i have to do it myself

                      Latvia's gross domestic product has reached the level of 2007 and will exceed it next year, said Vilks. Therefore the country could begin repaying its international loan installments sooner, writes LETA.



                      Asked about potentially lower interest rates, the minister pointed out that this would send a positive signal to credit rating agencies and the State Treasury would not have to keep money reserve.



                      As reported, on December 21, 2011, Latvia officially concluded its three-year international loan program, during which the country implemented stringent austerity measures to stabilize its finances after the economic downturn.



                      The planned amount of the international loan program was EUR 7.5 billion (LVL 5.25 billion). But since the economic and financial situation has improved, Latvia did not use the full amount of the loan. The country got by with EUR 4.4 billion (LVL 3.08 billion). Latvia has to repay the loan by 2025.
                      Vilks: Latvia could repay international loan sooner :: The Baltic Course | Baltic States news & analytics
                      If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today

                      Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BD1 View Post
                        since cyppok cannot wank to this, he probaly won´t post it, so i have to do it myself



                        Vilks: Latvia could repay international loan sooner :: The Baltic Course | Baltic States news & analytics
                        I guess 2010 wasn't the default year. Its ok sooner or later the cash flow will stop and all those debts go ka-boom. Time wise I was off since didn't know it could be put off over and over through stretched out measures.

                        From 08 to 12 Latvian debt to gdp more than trippled. Ergo they kept borrowing money more and more to refinance old borrowings and the deficit. Situation didn't improve. Estonia on the other hand kept their fairly low and stable. Compared to Greece and others though still a way to go.

                        Them borrowing from Peter to pay Paul and vice versa does not imply their intent to gradually repay it or keep it in check and stable. Thus far growing deficits and financing them through bond issuance has been the norm for most countries in Europe except very few. Sweden, Russia, Estonia, and a few others.

                        http://www.tradingeconomics.com/latv...nt-debt-to-gdp


                        A bailout usually implies insolvency of the one being bailed out... sooner or later they end.
                        Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          today latvia paid back bit more than 218 mil. eur, saving more than 5 mil. in interests alone. and they have gdp rise of 6,8% , highest in europe. that is by import, manufacturing, internal consumption, transit, not loaning. as your own nice lil´ link shows, situation is improving....

                          exports are rising Latvia Exports

                          gdp is climbing Latvia GDP Annual Growth Rate

                          deficit is falling Latvia Government Budget

                          even unemployment, still really hurting, but still going down. slowly Latvia Unemployment Rate

                          estonia was in better position mostly because we had collected relatively substantial reserves, made rough cuts and pumped as much euro-money in as possible. latvia did the same, simply the previous, pre-dombrovskis goverments had no reserves. hence the imf/euro loans. but this guy dombrovskis deserves the credit for stepping up when nobody else wanted the job, has done some cleaning of augeian stables, all three minigarchs that have dominated latvian political life for the past 2 decades are gone, and this country has done some serious improvement. lots of poo to wade through , but there is a light at the end of the sewer pipe. daylight

                          all which does not show up in your laptop in your mom´s basement. go out, get a job flippin burgers or something, do something for your own country´s economy. if you already have a job ( which i hope it has nothing to do with economical analysis), get a second job, flippin´ burgers or something. improves us economy and gives you something better and frankly, more decent to do than search the web for economical destruction etc. quite reminds the russian ´academics´ with their maps how the usa is going to break up along some rather randomly drawn lines.

                          i apologize to you that my english literary skills are inadequate to really put down here what i think of you and your wankerary ilk, so you have to settle to this admittedly lame response
                          If i only was so smart yesterday as my wife is today

                          Minding your own biz is great virtue, but situation awareness saves lives - Dok

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I am generally very negative and cynical and pessimistic. There are also maps of Russia breaking upart and Siberia going independent btw if you search for em you could probably find em.

                            However, when I made the thread I never singled anyone out just posted all the countries I thought that could default if there was a systemic shock. FYI I thought Ukraine was going to be the first to default because of iron ore and steel price collapse (I was wrong its' only happening now in earnest). Also I didn't realize the stretch of time bailouts woud provide (essentially years of time). But it doesn't matter.

                            Still Latvia is having problems just like everyone else thats the reality and the truth is until spending coincides with the budget you cannot be in a sustainable environment finance wise.
                            Originally from Sochi, Russia.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              :pop:

                              BD1, then you wonder why the Baltic states are put in one basket.

                              Look at your reaction over LV, Ah, I forgot, your in laws are having a gun pointed at you :)
                              No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

                              To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

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