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  • Post-Election Iran

    A-jad is forming his cabinet. This first VP appointment faces opposition and has just resigned.

    Ahmadinejad's controversial VP pick quits: report
    16 hrs ago [AFP] TEHRAN — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's choice as first vice president, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, has walked away from the job, state media reported on Sunday.

    Mashaie, a controversial politician and confidant of Ahmadinejad, has "resigned three days after his appointment" as first vice president, state-owned English-language channel Press TV reported. ....

    The appointment was strongly opposed by hardliners among Ahmadinejad's own support base.

    Mashaie, whose daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son, is an outspoken figure who last year earned the wrath of hardliners, including supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for saying Iran is a "friend of the Israeli people."

    In his current role as vice president in charge of tourism he sparked ire among MPs for reportedly watching a group of women dance at a congress in Turkey in 2007.

    His nomination as first vice president had ruffled feathers among hardliners deeply sensitive to any breach of the long-standing taboo on relations of any kind with arch foe Israel. ....

    Since the announcement of Mashaie's appointment on Friday, there has been a chorus of criticism from hardliners. ....

    The resistance to Mashaie's appointment was a sign of the difficulties Ahmadinejad is likely to face in forming a new cabinet after his hotly contested re-election in a June 12 vote that his main challenger denounced as a "shameful fraud". ....

  • #2
    Some army officers planning an act of political defiance attending Pafsanjani's Prayer sermon in uniform were arrested.

    Thirty-six army officers arrested in Iran over protest plan
    19 July [Guardian] Officers planned to attend sermon by former president Hashemi Rafsanjani in military uniform

    The Iranian army has arrested 36 officers who planned to attend last week's Friday prayer sermon by former president Hashemi Rafsanjani in their military uniforms as an act of political defiance, according to Farsi-language websites.

    The officers intended the gesture to show solidarity with the demonstrations against last month's presidential election result, which was won by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but which has been clouded by allegations of mass fraud. ...

    The officers were rounded up on Friday morning by army intelligence agents who had caught wind of the plan. They are said to have been arrested at their homes and taken to an unknown location.

    Peiknet, a Farsi website, said the officers had agreed the action at a weekly prayer meeting the night before at the Shah Abdolazim religious shrine in Shahr-e Rey, on Tehran's southern outskirts. .... It named 24 of the officers, who included two majors, four captains, eight lieutenants, six sergeants and four warrant officers.

    The arrests expose the authorities' sensitivity to signs of mutiny among the various branches of the security forces.

    Reports last month suggested that a senior revolutionary guard commander, General Ali Fazli, had been arrested for refusing to obey orders to suppress protests against election result. The reports were later denied but some sources say Fazli remains under pressure to toe the line.

    While the army is considered to be secondary in importance to the revolutionary guards in the regime's military hierarchy, it is still under the command of Khamenei, who yesterday appointed a cleric, Hojatoleslam Mohammad Ali Al-e Hashem, as the new head of its political ideology section. ....

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    • #3
      The Supreme Leader used to have the final say. Not now.

      Iran supremo slams 'meddling', reformers eye referendum
      2 hrs ago [AFP] TEHRAN — Iran's supreme leader warned on Monday against any attempt to destabilise the Islamic republic as reformists called for a referendum to try to resolve the most damaging crisis since the revolution.

      In a speech carried on state television, the nation's most powerful man Ayatollah Ali Khamenei again accused foreign countries of interference in the violent aftermath of last month's hotly-disputed presidential election. ...

      Iranian leaders have repeatedly lashed out at Western nations, accusing them of stoking the unrest unleashed after the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in what the opposition protested was a fraudulent poll on June 12. ....

      Khamenei's address follows a hard-hitting speech by former president and powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who said on Friday the regime had lost the people's trust, in his first public comments since the election.

      Ahmadinejad's reformist predecessor Mohammad Khatami voiced a similar sentiment on Monday, and he and his supporters called for a referendum to resolve a crisis that has rocked the roots of the 30-year-old Islamic republic.

      Khatami, whose 1997-2005 presidency saw a thaw in relations with the West, expressed concern that "public confidence in the system has been damaged," the ILNA news agency reported.

      Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in the immediate aftermath of the vote but at least 20 people were killed in the ensuing violence and hundreds of protestors and reformists arrested by the regime.

      The Association of Combatant Clerics, a group founded by Khatami, called for an independent referendum to try to find a way out of the crisis, although under the constitution only the supreme leader can organise such a public vote. ....

      The clerics also denounced the campaign of "violence, murder and arrests" against protesters and warned: "Everyone will lose if this situation continues."

      Rafsanjani, who lost to Ahmadinejad in the 2005 election and was attacked by the incumbent during this year's fiery election campaign, said on Friday he had drawn up a possible solution to the crisis.

      "These are bitter times. I don't think anybody from any faction wanted it to end like this. We have all lost. We need unity more than ever," he added. ....

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      • #4
        Lets see how this fight for power within the ruling establishment unfolds.

        Iran election dispute escalates to new phase
        1 hr ago [AP] TEHRAN, Iran — Iran's election dispute has moved beyond the drama of mass street protests to a new phase: a fight for power within the ruling religious establishment itself.

        The conflict escalated as the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, backed by hard-line clerics and the Revolutionary Guard, issued a warning to the opposition in general and powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in particular.

        "The elite should be watchful, since they have been faced with a big test. Failing the test will cause their collapse," Khamenei said Monday in a speech marking a religious holiday. "Anybody who drives the society toward insecurity and disorder is a hated person in the view of the Iranian nation, whoever he is."

        The opposition was emboldened when Rafsanjani stepped into the fray with a Friday prayer sermon that sharply criticized the leadership's handling of the postelection crisis. He has re-ignited the opposition, emerging as its leading patron.

        "You are facing something new: an awakened nation, a nation that has been born again and is here to defend its achievements," opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi said Monday in comments that appeared pointed directly at Khamenei, in a tone rarely used toward the supreme leader.

        Mousavi, whose loss in recent presidential elections triggered mass protests, also derided the claim by Khamenei and hard-line clerics that the protest movement was a tool of foreign enemies. "Who believes that (protesters) would conspire with foreigners and sell the interests of their own country?" he said. "Isn't this an insult to our nation?" ....

        There have always been behind-the-scenes power struggles within Iran's leadership, but rarely have they been so open or had such high stakes. The conflict now is in part over the authority of the supreme leader, who sits at the top of the country's political and religious hierarchy and who in the eyes of conservatives is the representative of God's rule. .....

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        • #5
          Splits are seen even within the Khamenei-Amadinejad ranks.

          Ahmadinejad defies ayatollah on vice president
          22 July [LATimes] Iran's president refuses an order by the supreme leader to dump the newly chosen official, who is despised by hard-liners for his remarks on Israelis. In Tehran, authorities crack down on protesters.

          Reporting from Beirut -- Iran's president, under attack by reformists after his disputed election victory last month, on Tuesday openly defied his most powerful backer, refusing an order by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to dump a newly chosen vice president who is despised by hard-liners for insisting last year that Iranians had no quarrel with the Israeli people.

          President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad finds himself under increasing pressure from Iranian hard-liners who appear eager to reap political rewards after leading a weeks-long crackdown on supporters of opposition figure Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who say vote fraud was responsible for Ahmadinejad's victory.

          The leader of a hard-line scholars group linked to the Basiji militia said his organization would propose its own "desired Cabinet lineup" to the president.

          "Our organization intends to become the government's think tank," said Lotfali Bakh- tiari, leader of the group, in an interview published by Khabar newspaper. "We want to introduce our elite into the government to serve the country. No obstacle is on our way, even the current climate of mistrust."

          Ahmadinejad surprised many observers by defending the vice president, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, an in-law, in the face of a torrent of criticism from his hard-line allies.

          News agencies confirmed Tuesday that Khamenei sent a letter to Ahmadinejad on Monday asking for the removal of Mashaei.

          "The president should announce the dismissal, or acceptance of the resignation of Rahim Mashaei right away," said Mohammad Hasan Abu- torabi, the deputy speaker of parliament, according to the semiofficial Iranian Students News Agency.

          But Ahmadinejad insisted on state television that Mashaei "will continue his job," adding, "he is very loyal to the Islamic Revolution and a servant of people."

          In the capital, hordes of Bakhtiari's plainclothes Basiji counterparts, wielding truncheons, appeared to lead the way Tuesday in menacing small groups of anti-government protesters seeking to mark a nationalist Iranian anniversary.

          The protesters were part of a burgeoning political movement built on Mousavi's election campaign.

          According to witnesses at the aborted rally, which drew hundreds, at least one woman lay unconscious on the ground after she was clubbed, as hundreds of militiamen and uniformed officers maintained control over the huge Seventh of Tir Square.

          A hard-line military leader of the Revolutionary Guard on Tuesday threatened to broadcast confessions extracted from hundreds of prisoners detained at protest rallies as a way to "restore confidence" in the political system, an apparent answer to calls Monday by leading reformists for a national referendum on the results of the disputed June 12 election. ....
          Last edited by Merlin; 22 Jul 09,, 08:22.

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          • #6
            The fissure widens among the elite.

            Fissures widen in Iran's power struggle
            22 July [NationalPost] The fallout from last month’s disputed presidential election has created unprecedented divisions among Iran’s top leaders and now threatens to move from street protests to a prolonged power struggle.

            Despite the arrests of thousands of opposition protesters and the crushing of anti-government demonstrations, there are no signs the crisis is about to diminish. In fact, it may grow more pronounced as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad approaches his second inauguration, scheduled for the first week of August.

            on Wednesday, Mir Hossein Mousavi, a failed presidential candidate who still refuses to acknowledge Mr. Ahmadinejad’s victory in the June 12 poll, warned embittered bureaucrats and managers may boycott his new administration. ....

            Mr. Mousavi’s comments came just days after Gholam-Reza Aghazadeh, head of Iran’s controversial nuclear program, resigned. Akbar Torkan, the deputy oil minister and an opposition supporter, has also been dismissed from his post.

            With tensions continuing to run high, there are also reports the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the Iranian Revolution, has fled the country to avoid being forced to attend Mr. Ahmadinejad’s inauguration.

            Hassan Khomeini, a Mousavi supporter, is a leading member of the pro-reformist Association of Combatant Clerics, which this week rejected the election results and called for a national referendum on the legitimacy of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s government.

            Divisions over the election run so deep they have even split the family of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader. His oldest son, Mujtaba, is an ardent Ahmadinejad aide, while the Supreme Leader’s brother, Hadi, is a vocal critic of Mr. Ahmadinejad and a supporter of Medhi Karrubi, a defeated reformist candidate. ....

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Merlin View Post
              Splits are seen even within the Khamenei-Amadinejad ranks.

              Ahmadinejad defies ayatollah on vice president
              He gave this a few days delay, and has now bowed to the Supreme Leader and the other hardline conservatives.

              Blow for Iran's Ahmadinejad as vice-president sacked
              8 hrs ago [AFP] TEHRAN — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Saturday caved in to hardliners and sacked his controversial deputy, suffering his first major blow to forge a new government since his disputed re-election last month.

              Ahmadinejad said in a letter to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie had stepped down as first vice president, a little over a week after he was appointed to the post, the official IRNA news agency said. ....

              Rahim Mashaie's appointment triggered strong opposition from hardliners and plunged Iran into a fresh political turmoil even while it remains engulfed in the worst crisis since the 1979 Islamic revolution. .....

              Khamenei had himself ordered the sacking of Rahim Mashaie, who caused a stir last year when he said Iran was a "friend of the Israeli people."

              "The appointment of Mr Rahim Mashaie as a deputy to the president is against your best interest and the government's interest, and it will cause division and frustration among your supporters," state television on Friday quoted Khamenei as saying in a letter to Ahmadinejad.

              "It is necessary that the appointment be cancelled," he added in the letter.

              The sacking of Rahim Mashaie comes as a blow to Ahmadinejad, who had strongly defended his decision to appoint his close aide as his deputy, going so far as to describe him as "like a pure source of water."

              "Mr. Mashaie is one of Mr. Ahmadinejad's inner circle of trustees... his appointment was to have total supervision of the cabinet, especially control over sensitive sectors like oil, economy and central bank," independent analyst Mohammad Saleh Sedghian told AFP.

              "His appointment was aimed at having total control over the cabinet over the next four years so there would be absolutely no opposition." ....
              Last edited by Merlin; 26 Jul 09,, 08:52.

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              • #8
                The next day the sacked first VP was appointed by A-jad as his advisor.

                Controversial figure in Iran moved from one key post into another
                25 July TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has appointed Esfandyar Rahim Mashaie as his adviser, a day after the controversial political figure resigned as first vice president, Iran's state-run news agency reported on Saturday.

                Ahmadinejad praised Mashaie as a pious, trustworthy, and self-sacrificing human being in his letter of appointment, the IRNA report stated.

                It comes after Iran's Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Ahmadinejad to nullify Mashaie's appointment to the key post of first vice president. Mashaie announced he would resign from the position on Friday. Later that day, Ahmadinejad appointed his long-time friend and the father-in-law of his son as his presidential adviser and head of his bureau.

                Mashaie made a lot of enemies among Iran's fundamentalists when he reportedly said last year that the Iranian people are friends with all people, including Israelis. He was also criticized for attending a ceremony in Turkey where women danced on stage. In Iran, women are forbidden to dance in public and Iranian officials are expected to leave when such entertainment is provided for them while they are visiting abroad.

                ... Mashaie is among the Iranian president's closest confidants, and was previously the head of the Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization, Fars reported. ....

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                • #9
                  Disagreements and splits within the cabinet.

                  Ahmadinejad sacks ministers after cabinet row
                  27 July [FT/IrishTimes] MAHMOUD Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president, fired his culture and intelligence ministers yesterday as tensions among fundamentalists rose over the composition of his next cabinet.

                  The development underlines the extent of the political tension in Tehran following last month’s disputed presidential elections. It is rare for senior officials to be dismissed; they are usually said to have “resigned” for the sake of their public standing.

                  Domestic news agencies did not explain why Hossein Saffar-Harandi, the culture minister, and Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the intelligence minister, lost their jobs. There was speculation that their dismissals followed a row within the government over the post of the first vice-president.

                  Unconfirmed reports suggested tensions increased in last Wednesday’s cabinet meeting after four ministers, including the two to be expelled, clashed with the hardline president over his appointment of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei as first vice-president, and walked out of the meeting. ....

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                  • #10
                    Even between A-jad and the Supreme Leader Khamenei, there are problems, very much due to A-jad's volatile behaviors. But there is no way the Khamenei can sack A-jad now.

                    Iran turmoil takes new twist as hardliners fall out
                    BEIRUT, July 28 (Reuters) - Iran's hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has chosen a strange moment to cross swords with his chief patron, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

                    As if widespread popular unrest and the wrath of reformists over a disputed election were not enough, Ahmadinejad has alienated some of his own allies and lost two hardline cabinet members by defying Khamenei over his choice of vice president. The disarray in the hardline camp is likely to complicate Ahmadinejad's job of forming a new cabinet, risking prolonged paralysis in decision-making even as a Western deadline looms for Iran to enter substantive talks on its nuclear programme.

                    Ahmadinejad, due to be sworn in by parliament next week, is already under fire from his moderate rivals, Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, who say any new cabinet will be illegitimate as the June 12 poll was rigged -- a charge the authorities deny.

                    Part of Iran's influential Shi'ite clerical establishment based in the shrine city of Qom has also signalled misgivings over the aftermath of the poll, which has plunged Iran into its worst internal upheaval since the 1979 Islamic revolution. ....

                    Khamenei, who endorsed the election result and sided openly with Ahmadinejad, can hardly ditch his protege now. But he reacted firmly when the president named as his deputy Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, who had previously angered hardliners by saying Iran had no quarrel with Israelis, only their government.

                    OPEN LETTER
                    In a rare move, Khamenei ordered Ahmadinejad in an open letter to dismiss Mashaie. Instead, the president publicly defended his nominee, who is related to him by marriage, and presented him last week at a stormy cabinet meeting.

                    Ahmadinejad finally dismissed Mashaie at the weekend, only to reappoint him as head of his own office. He also sacked his intelligence minister, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, apparently for insisting Mashaie must go to conform with Khamenei's orders.

                    Culture Minister Mohammad Hossein Saffar-Harandi, seen as another hardliner close to Khamenei, quit over the same issue, although Ahmadinejad has not accepted his resignation.

                    The supreme leader's approval is normally required for appointments to head sensitive ministries such as intelligence and culture, along with the defence and interior portfolios.

                    Ahmadinejad's handling of his outgoing cabinet can only make it harder to compose a new one amidst Iran's wider crisis. ....

                    The assembly is dominated by conservatives, but it has in the past rejected some of Ahmadinejad's cabinet picks. Without Khamenei's support, any new list could get a very rough ride. ....

                    Ahmadinejad had cost them dear. Now they wanted to control the president.

                    "VOLATILE BEHAVIOUR"
                    ... Iran's ruling elite, already split and bruised by the tumult since the election, would have little appetite for a new crisis that would erupt if Ahmadinejad resigned or were forced out. ....

                    The supreme leader's own authority has already been sapped, partly by his own departure from his usual role of arbiter above the political fray. The opposition has defied his ruling that the election was valid. And now Ahmadinejad has challenged him.

                    The opposition has found new energy in the last few weeks, winning support from Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and other senior clerics, after authorities quelled last month's street protests.

                    The power struggle can only hamper the leadership's ability to tackle the Islamic Republic's economic problems, as well as the struggle over its nuclear programme, which Iran says is only peaceful, but which the West suspects is aimed at bomb-making. .....
                    Last edited by Merlin; 28 Jul 09,, 14:40.

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                    • #11
                      Conflict between Khamenei and A-Jad

                      I dunno, seems like pocket change. The overall goal of not losing out to the moderates seem to be much more important.

                      Also I am sure Russia and China would love to pitch in and ensure that everybody (i.e. the Supreme Leader and A-Jad) just gets along.

                      There is just too much at stake
                      "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by antimony View Post
                        I dunno, seems like pocket change. The overall goal of not losing out to the moderates seem to be much more important.

                        Also I am sure Russia and China would love to pitch in and ensure that everybody (i.e. the Supreme Leader and A-Jad) just gets along.

                        There is just too much at stake

                        The issue here isn't the part of the conservative iceberg we can see, its what is going on with the other 7/8ths. The fact that divisions are this open at the top means that there are much bigger problems below. We have seen divisions in all the major props of the regime - the clerics, the Army & even the Revolutionary Guards.

                        All this fussin' & feudin' is slowly eating away at the stability & legitimacy of the regime. It isn't going to fall over tommorrow, but it wasn't prepared to deal with conflict this big, sustained or broad. It is doing a poor job. All of this should have been buried a month ago. The fact that it is not only continuing, but that that victors are themselves squabbling before they have fully vanquished their foe smells like trouble to me.

                        The regime isn't going to fall over today, next week or next month, but it is in serious trouble. There are going to be more crisis points, whether the push to get a succesor lined up for Khamenei, his serious illness or death, external problems associated with the nuclear issue or a whole bunch of stuff we don't now about yet. The failure of the regime to nail things down this far from the elction makes each of those points that bit more dangerous.

                        I don't know when the end will come, but I think these ongoing struggles indicate that it is coming.
                        sigpic

                        Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                        • #13
                          It appears Iran is facing a governing impasse. The opposition doesn't want to bring the government down, but insists on redress for what it perceives was a rigged election. The hardliners are not likely to give in, indeed can't, lest they de facto admit the elections were rigged.

                          As this standoff moves forward in time, there will be A-jad and his ragtag cabinet trying to rule while the opposition tries to twart him at every turn. What could break the impasse would be the death of the Supreme ruler, who is known to be ill.
                          To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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                          • #14
                            A-jad have asked to free 140 ordinary protesters, not the political ones.

                            And Khamenei personally ordered a jail closed amid prisoner abuse allegations. I find this strange. This would normally be a matter for say the Interior Minister, or even the President, but not the Supreme Leader.

                            The cracks in the ruling circle are opening wider.

                            Iran frees 140 vote protesters
                            20 hrs ago [AFP] TEHRAN — Iranian authorities on Tuesday freed 140 people detained in street protests over last month's disputed election and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he wanted them all released soon.

                            In what was seen as a gesture to the opposition campaigning against Ahmadinejad's re-election, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also ordered a jail closed amid allegations of prisoner abuse.

                            Ahmadinejad, in his first comments about the protesters who rose up against him, told the country's judiciary chief to free any detained demonstrators not facing serious charges. ....

                            Iranian authorities on Tuesday freed 140 protesters held in the notorious Evin prison in Tehran, according to a member of a parliamentary panel who visited the detainees. ....

                            Around 200 people remain in detention, including 50 "politicians, members of anti-revolutionary groups and foreigners" who he said were suspected of masterminding riots. ....
                            Last edited by Merlin; 29 Jul 09,, 04:04.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                              The issue here isn't the part of the conservative iceberg we can see, its what is going on with the other 7/8ths. The fact that divisions are this open at the top means that there are much bigger problems below. We have seen divisions in all the major props of the regime - the clerics, the Army & even the Revolutionary Guards.

                              All this fussin' & feudin' is slowly eating away at the stability & legitimacy of the regime. It isn't going to fall over tommorrow, but it wasn't prepared to deal with conflict this big, sustained or broad. It is doing a poor job. All of this should have been buried a month ago. The fact that it is not only continuing, but that that victors are themselves squabbling before they have fully vanquished their foe smells like trouble to me.

                              The regime isn't going to fall over today, next week or next month, but it is in serious trouble. There are going to be more crisis points, whether the push to get a succesor lined up for Khamenei, his serious illness or death, external problems associated with the nuclear issue or a whole bunch of stuff we don't now about yet. The failure of the regime to nail things down this far from the elction makes each of those points that bit more dangerous.

                              I don't know when the end will come, but I think these ongoing struggles indicate that it is coming.
                              BF,

                              In the absence of a really strong opposition (and I don't think Moussavi is there yet) I would think a Khamenei and A-Jad patch up would prevail. Sure, they would hate each others guts, but not enough to topple the system.

                              I hope I am wrong in this assessment
                              "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

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